Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021-2022 Snowcover / Misc Obs

[Niall Dollard]

A new thread for reporting/discussing NH snowcover as we enter the new snow "season".

I see there is now 20cm snow cover lying at Alert Nunavut. It has built up steadily there from the 5th September.

Nothing particularly unusual about this. Although it is looking like it will be snowier than usual. Precipitation total for the month so far is 20.1mm and with still plenty of days to go yet it's likely that the 1981-2010 normal total of 22.5mm will be exceeded.

[Sebastian Jones]

Not record early (the 1992 post Pinatubo September record is unlikely to be matched in the foreseeable future), but snow is forecast this week:

[Niall Dollard]

Last 7 days animation. Starting to fill in.

Needs a click.

[The Walrus]

Last 7 days animation. Starting to fill in.

Needs a click.

Should really start to fill in this week with a major snowstorm hitting the Rockies.

[Comradez]

So, funny thing...while sea ice grows back at a vigorous pace, northern hemisphere snow cover is extremely low for this date. 

As of 10/25/2021, NH snow extent anomaly is -3.200 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing. 

Does this matter at all?  Will the late albedo changes significantly delay the freeze-up of Hudson Bay? 

[Shared Humanity]

So, funny thing...while sea ice grows back at a vigorous pace, northern hemisphere snow cover is extremely low for this date. 

As of 10/25/2021, NH snow extent anomaly is -3.200 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing. 

Does this matter at all?  Will the late albedo changes significantly delay the freeze-up of Hudson Bay?

You are certainly correct, especially for North America but I think it is way to early to think it will have an impact.

[The Walrus]

Those numbers may change significantly with the major storm hitting the western U.S.

[Brigantine]

So, funny thing...while sea ice grows back at a vigorous pace, northern hemisphere snow cover is extremely low for this date.

Hmm... the opposite of WACCy. These things tend to go together

[Shared Humanity]

Those numbers may change significantly with the major storm hitting the western U.S.

I agree.

[Comradez]

As of 10/28/2021, NH snow extent anomaly is -3.309 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

[Comradez]

As of 10/29/2021, NH snow extent anomaly is -3.938 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

This is the largest anomaly I have witnessed so far.  How low will it go?  Will it crack -4 million km^2? 

And to what extent does this matter?  Albedo-wise, this is like having a -4 million km^2 anomaly at the beginning of February, in terms of how much sun there is hitting the snow-less ground.  I feel like a -4 million km^2 in early February would be kind of a big deal for the amount of extra heat absorbed...

[FredBear]

As of 10/29/2021, NH snow extent anomaly is -3.938 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

This is the largest anomaly I have witnessed so far.  How low will it go?  Will it crack -4 million km^2? 

And to what extent does this matter?  Albedo-wise, this is like having a -4 million km^2 anomaly at the beginning of February, in terms of how much sun there is hitting the snow-less ground.  I feel like a -4 million km^2 in early February would be kind of a big deal for the amount of extra heat absorbed...

It is likely to be the reverse - there will be more radiation from the surface into a winter sky without a snow blanket (+ higher air temperatures?).

[Comradez]

Is that true?  How much heat flux is coming out of the ground in areas that are largely permafrosted?  Not much, I would think.  And how much of that heat flux is obstructed by a blanket of snow?  And how does that compare to the extra heat absorbed from the sun, even with 8 hours of sunlight per day at like 15 degrees angle?

[FredBear]

Where the surface of the permafrost has warmed (melted?) it should help get heat back out, only a small effect for a short time but over a vast area? It might make a big difference to the stability of the land surface??

[Comradez]

As of 10/30/2021, NH snow extent anomaly is -4.249 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

[Niall Dollard]

And four days later the nh snow cover anomaly (courtesy Nico Sun) is down to -947,000 km², mostly due to to snowfalls in central Siberia, northern Ontario and northern Quebec.

Positive temperatures over next few days likely will ensure the Ontario snow won't last long (for now). 

[be cause]

meanwhile , to celebrate COPOUT26 , the last speck of snow in Scotland melted out . This once a century occurrence has happened 3 times in the last 5 years .

[Sebastian Jones]

meanwhile , to celebrate COPOUT26 , the last speck of snow in Scotland melted out . This once a century occurrence has happened 3 times in the last 5 years .

I keep thinking about this last patch of semi-firn in Scotland. That it lasts until November before melting is so sad. November is supposed to be almost winter. When I was small and living in England, we had a saying that went: "If there is ice in November to bear a duck, February will be all mire and muck." Not to say that it is true or anything, but it does speak to how November used to be cold. The fag end of autumn, I think John LeCarre called it. My school took a trip that included a hike up Ben Nevis one May, and it was most certainly still winter at the peak. Please excuse the solastalgia. On the bright side, and more on topic, there is finally enough snow here that I was able to get the dogs out today for a run, both on the toboggan and the skis. Happy huskies!

[gerontocrat]

Images from Nico Sun. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

A lot of snow in Asia

click images to enlarge

[FredBear]

 Extra snow not so much in polar areas  .    .    . but quite far south (circa Chinese & Korean latitudes?).

[Shared Humanity]

Extra snow not so much in polar areas  .    .    . but quite far south (circa Chinese & Korean latitudes?).

Noticed this as well. Have no idea the reason or whether it is unusual.

[Niall Dollard]

Extra snow not so much in polar areas  .    .    .

But practically all the polar areas already have snow as per climatology so no anomaly. It's at the lower edges you see the positive and negative anomalies.

Rutgers Snow Lab just puts it Blue or Red or White (no anomaly).

[FredBear]

Extra snow not so much in polar areas  .    .    .

But practically all the polar areas already have snow as per climatology so no anomaly. It's at the lower edges you see the positive and negative anomalies.

Rutgers Snow Lab just puts it Blue or Red or White (no anomaly).

Anomalies can be early indicators of change (e.g. slow ice formation on "warm"seas) but at this stage in the season variations in snow are just likely to depend on which way the wind has blown    .     .     .    (earlier the snow was a bit slow in the arctic indicating possible warmth?).

[Feeltheburn]

In stark contrast to other recent years northern hemisphere snow cover is very low at the moment, especially in North America:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-november-2021/#Nov-03

According to this site, snow in the northern hemisphere has been above average in area and water content since the beginning of October:

https://www.ccin.ca/index.php/ccw/snow/current

[The Walrus]

In stark contrast to other recent years northern hemisphere snow cover is very low at the moment, especially in North America:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-november-2021/#Nov-03

According to this site, snow in the northern hemisphere has been above average in area and water content since the beginning of October:

https://www.ccin.ca/index.php/ccw/snow/current

Yes, the increased snow cover in Eurasia more than compensates for decreases elsewhere.

[oren]

Snow situation according to NOAA, from Cryosphere Computing.

[The Walrus]

<You keep posting material from soft denial websites. Not on my watch, and not in my section. Reduces my willingness to pass through other more innocent posts made by you.
Note: not sure what is worse, that you are aware of it or are unaware of it. O>

[Comradez]

The NH snow extent anomaly has been running about -1 million km^2 for a while now (not great, not terrible).  The most consistent contributor has been the region neighboring the Black Sea and Caspian Sea.  At what point can we expect these anomalies (if they persist) to start accumulating melting momentum for the Northern Hemisphere?

[Comradez]

Snow cover fairly low now (about -1.4 million km^2 anomaly at the moment).  Have we on this forum ever come to a consensus about when the snow cover anomaly starts to matter for the melting season?

[oren]

Thanks for the recurring updates, Comradez.
I don't think a consensus exists. Rob Dekker used to have some prediction model that incorporated snow cover, and IIRC 2012 had low snow, but personally I've never been able to develop good intuition on the subject.

[gerontocrat]

Snow melt is very much underway with an overall extent anomaly of -1.28 million km2.
The conventional wisdom says a trend to later commencement of winter snowfall and earlier melt.

Images from Nico Sun @ https://cryospherecomputing.com/

click to enlarge

[Comradez]

Yep, and a lot more rapid snowmelt on the way for Russia.  Above freezing average temperatures forecasted all the way up to the Gulf of Ob for the next 5 days. 

Also above freezing average temperatures for the Great Lakes region over the next 5 days. 

The one region that will lag with snowmelt will be the Canadian Rockies/Plains. 

But overall, I expect the snowcover anomaly to continue to deepen into negative territory over the next week. 

[Sebastian Jones]

Meanwhile in the Yukon Territory, Canada, there is record SWE in 8 out of 11 watersheds, the other three are merely well above normal. With below average temperatures forecast for the next two weeks (very sceptical about two week forecasts...), we are getting closer and closer to a precipitous melt event.
https://yukon.ca/sites/yukon.ca/files/env/snow_bulletin_april_2022_en.pdf

[gerontocrat]

Snow disappearing quickly.
Graphs from Nico Sun. He uses snow data from NOAA, ice data from NSIDC.

click images to enlarge

[The Walrus]

Snow returning to many areas of the western U.S.

[gerontocrat]

Impressive snowmelt in North America & Asia in the last few days

[be cause]

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022052012/gfsnh-16-6.png?12 ..

  .. although a forecast gfs appears to know where the snow is ( and where it isn't ) .

[gerontocrat]

As at 23 May 2022 - From https://cryospherecomputing.com/ (Nico Sun)

Snow melt continues strongly in Siberia and central and East Canada, and GFS sees it continuing this week ( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=gfs&dm_id=arc-lea&wm_id=snowd-mslp )

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Snow cover in Asia takes a big tumble

LARGE Images from Nico Sun @ https://cryospherecomputing.com/

[be cause]

 the steady increase in NH temperature anomaly is probably both benefiting from and helping cause the rapid decline in snow cover . Neither trend look like reversing anytime soon ..
  http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.html

^^ website well worth a visit . . . b.c.

ps .. 03/06 .. another dramatic disappearance of snow today in Siberia can be seen on Worldview

[gerontocrat]

The snow graphs and map from Nico Sun suggest the snow melt is finishing in a rush

large images - click to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The snow graphs and map from Nico Sun suggest the snow melt is still finishing in a rush

Northern hemisophere snow extent anomaly 2.5 million below 2000-2019 base

[gerontocrat]

As at 15 June

After a short stall, the snow graphs and map from Nico Sun once gain show the snow melt is still finishing in a rush.

Northern hemisphere snow extent anomaly 2.4 million below 2000-2019 base

click images to enlarge