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KiwiGriff

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1150 on: April 28, 2024, 08:09:14 PM »
Thank you gerontocrat.
We have had some incredible extremely localized events recently .
In one last year what is normally a small stony bottom stream about 1 meter wide and 100mm deep ended up running 2 meters above the bridge. You simply can not build infrastructure that will resist such events.   At the time that road was the only one north due to earlier slips on the main highway
 

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
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El Cid

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1151 on: April 29, 2024, 07:22:56 AM »
In the good old days, before climate change, things like this never happened!

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1152 on: April 29, 2024, 12:02:39 PM »
In the good old days, before climate change, things like this never happened!

Well, they did happen every 1000 years but now it is every decade.

Ranman99

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1153 on: April 29, 2024, 12:29:09 PM »
Highlight a good point. The strategy might have to be not to build bridges that will stand for 100 years but to set each location up so that old damaged bridges can be removed quickly and new pre-built or modular bridges can be dropped in and set up practically overnight.

In Ottawa, Canada, a number of bridges were replaced overnight on the main expressway, the 417, by constructing the bridges alongside the expressway and then, in a single early morning exercise, moving them into place so that those lanes were only closed for a few hours.

Hmmmm
😎

John_the_Younger

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1154 on: April 29, 2024, 05:46:25 PM »
Low water bridges are dry when the flow beneath them is low, but are built to withstand the turbulence of overflowing floods.  Easier done when the low bridge is over a back water; not so easy over the mountain stream that turns into a raging torrent.

etienne

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1155 on: April 29, 2024, 07:34:46 PM »
We have many low water bridge in Luxembourg.
https://www.google.com/maps/@49.7910285,6.1560017,3a,90y,1.79h,90.54t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s2TgUf3TqKRDkaNwmxRuB8g!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu
On forest roads around here, many have been replaced by fords after the flooding of 2016. Fords are easier to maintain.
I hope that in some places, we could elevate the road to create a water retention basin in order to protect the inhabitants below.

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1156 on: April 29, 2024, 10:27:48 PM »
But what is the basin fills up and then overflows while it is still raining?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

etienne

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1157 on: April 30, 2024, 06:04:57 AM »
Worst case is when the overflow breaks the basin and the water is released in a short time.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1158 on: May 08, 2024, 01:54:15 PM »
We often criticise the IPCC mechanism and the way scientists' work is sanitised and deodorised

It seems many of the scientists who work under the IPCC umbrella believe we are well and truly stuffed.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature
Quote
Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds

Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.

Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met.

Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.

Numerous experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.

“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future.”

But many said the climate fight must continue, however high global temperature rose, because every fraction of a degree avoided would reduce human suffering.

Peter Cox, at the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5C – it already is. And it will not be ‘game over’ if we pass 2C, which we might well do.”

The Guardian approached every contactable lead author or review editor of IPCC reports since 2018. Almost half replied, 380 of 843. The IPCC’s reports are the gold standard assessments of climate change, approved by all governments and produced by experts in physical and social sciences. The results show that many of the most knowledgeable people on the planet expect climate havoc to unfold in the coming decades.

The climate crisis is already causing profound damage to lives and livelihoods across the world, with only 1.2C (2.16F) of global heating on average over the past four years. Jesse Keenan, at Tulane University in the US, said: “This is just the beginning: buckle up.”

Nathalie Hilmi, at the Monaco Scientific Centre, who expects a rise of 3C, agreed: “We cannot stay below 1.5C.”

The experts said massive preparations to protect people from the worst of the coming climate disasters were now critical. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am extremely worried about the costs in human lives.”

The 1.5C target was chosen to prevent the worst of the climate crisis and has been seen as an important guiding star for international negotiations. Current climate policies mean the world is on track for about 2.7C, and the Guardian survey shows few IPCC experts expect the world to deliver the huge action required to reduce that.

Younger scientists were more pessimistic, with 52% of respondents under 50 expecting a rise of at least 3C, compared with 38% of those over 50. Female scientists were also more downbeat than male scientists, with 49% thinking global temperature would rise at least 3C, compared with 38%. There was little difference between scientists from different continents.

Dipak Dasgupta, at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, said: “If the world, unbelievably wealthy as it is, stands by and does little to address the plight of the poor, we will all lose eventually.”

The experts were clear on why the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. A lack of political will was cited by almost three-quarters of the respondents, while 60% also blamed vested corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.

Many also mentioned inequality and a failure of the rich world to help the poor, who suffer most from climate impacts. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for the people of the global south,” said a South African scientist, who chose not to be named. “The world’s response to date is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.”

About a quarter of the IPCC experts who responded thought global temperature rise would be kept to 2C or below but even they tempered their hopes.

“I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5C path and that we will implement them in the coming 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt, at the UN’s Copenhagen Climate Centre. “But I fear that our actions might come too late and we cross one or several tipping points.”


Lisa Schipper, at University of Bonn in Germany, said: “My only source of hope is the fact that, as an educator, I can see the next generation being so smart and understanding the politics.”

& more here......
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair
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Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1159 on: May 08, 2024, 02:20:12 PM »
We live in an age of fools...
« Last Edit: May 08, 2024, 02:43:04 PM by Freegrass »
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1160 on: May 08, 2024, 02:41:57 PM »
Yes we all are in a way or in many different ways.

PS: chopped of the block quote of the post above.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1161 on: May 08, 2024, 02:51:38 PM »
Yes we all are in a way or in many different ways.

PS: chopped of the block quote of the post above.
I just send the article to a few politicians and the media here in Belgium. We have an election here, and they hardly talk about the climate.

I told them that we spend 20 billion euro a year on fossil subsidies. Why do we keep sending that money to foreign countries when we could produce the cheapest energy right here at home?

20 billion in 5 years is 100 billion we could invest in solar, wind, storage, and the grid. More than enough for a small country like Belgium.

And I also told them that we better start producing our own energy before the whole world turns to shit. Those that stop depending on fossil fuels will be the only countries with enough energy during conflict.

But yes, we do live in the age of fools...
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

El Cid

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1162 on: May 08, 2024, 03:19:37 PM »
We often criticise the IPCC mechanism and the way scientists' work is sanitised and deodorised

It seems many of the scientists who work under the IPCC umbrella believe we are well and truly stuffed.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature
Quote
Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds...............................................
We are already at 1,5 C. Decadal growth is 0,3-0,4 C. Fossil fuels won't be phased out for at least 3 decades. Temperature growth will still continue albeit slower when they are mostly phased out.

Not hard to do the math based on the above. 3 C is baked in the cake by 2100. (and we will hit 2C well before 2050)

The above is pretty much sure. The question is only how humankind can cope with the unavoidable. Pessimists say it't back to the stone age. Optimists say that 3 C won't end human civilization at all.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2024, 03:31:26 PM by kassy »

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1163 on: May 08, 2024, 03:43:53 PM »
We often criticise the IPCC mechanism and the way scientists' work is sanitised and deodorised

It seems many of the scientists who work under the IPCC umbrella believe we are well and truly stuffed.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature
Quote
Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds...............................................
We are already at 1,5 C. Decadal growth is 0,3-0,4 C. Fossil fuels won't be phased out for at least 3 decades. Temperature growth will still continue albeit slower when they are mostly phased out.

Not hard to do the math based on the above. 3 C is baked in the cake by 2100. (and we will hit 2C well before 2050)

The above is pretty much sure. The question is only how humankind can cope with the unavoidable. Pessimists say it't back to the stone age. Optimists say that 3 C won't end human civilization at all.

We wont return to the stone age but the current iteration of civilization will be over.

I suspect the result will be a world divided with an end to globalization, countries will be mostly self sufficient because they will have to be.
Food and water will be a problem, coping with new weather patterns or ever-evolving patterns will present problems. Storms and major events will stress economies and resources so cities will be smaller.

But we will probably still have the internet, air travel will be minimal and expensive, international travel will be mostly by ship, and electricity will play a smaller role than expected. Cars will be gone for the most part too.

Or, it will be completely different lol

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1164 on: May 08, 2024, 03:46:51 PM »
Added the missing end quote to ElCids post because i am generous today and it makes for easier reading.

2C is likely in the forties. Many areas will not cope well with that because how do you cope with frequent deadly heatwaves? They are in Africa, and the Middle East.

We will have lots of problems along the way. More forest fires. Warmer heatwaves and heavier downpours when they happen etc. Realists say we will see plenty of problems and many deaths.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1165 on: May 08, 2024, 03:48:52 PM »
We are already at 1,5 C. Decadal growth is 0,3-0,4 C. Fossil fuels won't be phased out for at least 3 decades. Temperature growth will still continue albeit slower when they are mostly phased out.

Not hard to do the math based on the above. 3 C is baked in the cake by 2100. (and we will hit 2C well before 2050)

The above is pretty much sure. The question is only how humankind can cope with the unavoidable. Pessimists say it't back to the stone age. Optimists say that 3 C won't end human civilization at all.
This correct prognosis doesn't include surprises from tipping points like the loss of the Amazon, arctic methane release, and pollution reduction if we do end up using less dirty fuels.

It's reasonable to assume that CO2 levels will keep going up after we stop emitting them.

Oh yeah, and we've also got this thing called AI and humanoid robots happening at the same time. And that's about the economy, which always comes first for people.

And if people think they can isolate themselves from the rest of the world, they will be in for a big surprise. But I guess they already got that message with the pandemic...

If the global economy collapses, only those with their own energy and food supply will survive.

I think Norway may become the place to be in the future.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2024, 03:55:42 PM by Freegrass »
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

Carbon for the Carbon God

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1166 on: May 08, 2024, 04:01:17 PM »
Pessimists say it't back to the stone age. Optimists say that 3 C won't end human civilization at all.

Ah yes, the silver lining: climate catastrophe won't destroy our species it'll just make it impossible to live a pleasant, materially comfortable life.

El Cid

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1167 on: May 08, 2024, 04:15:09 PM »
Pessimists say it't back to the stone age. Optimists say that 3 C won't end human civilization at all.

Ah yes, the silver lining: climate catastrophe won't destroy our species it'll just make it impossible to live a pleasant, materially comfortable life.

That's NOT the silver lining. A real optimist says that humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change. I am an optimist.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1168 on: May 08, 2024, 04:35:23 PM »
Ya and a pessimist would say once we crash through 3C we will have triggered enough unstoppable positive feedback loops that we then start the 2100-2200 cascade of ecosystem collapses that lead to massive extinctions but humans will escape all the suffering they have caused and wake up happy and fulfilled in the desolation . That is a pessimist is worried we just don’t give a shit!

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1169 on: May 08, 2024, 06:07:31 PM »
That's NOT the silver lining. A real optimist says that humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change. I am an optimist.
Tell that to the rest of the world, where people will suffer and die.
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

etienne

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1170 on: May 08, 2024, 06:46:33 PM »
Well, a very pessimist one would say that AGW will bring us to a WW3, which will make it a necessity to burn way too much FF to stay under 3°C, and we will burn it to destroy what we would be so happy to keep in order to adapt as good as we can to something like 2,5 °C of AGW.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1171 on: May 08, 2024, 07:55:16 PM »
Quote
That's NOT the silver lining. A real optimist says that humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change. I am an optimist.

A realist  says that the wealthy 10% of humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change.
That is most of us folks on here.
The other 90% are fucked .
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1172 on: May 08, 2024, 10:40:16 PM »
UN expert attacks ‘exploitative’ world economy in fight to save planet
Outgoing special rapporteur David Boyd says ‘there’s something wrong with our brains that we can’t understand how grave this is’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/07/un-expert-human-rights-climate-crisis-economy

The race to save the planet is being impeded by a global economy that is contingent on the exploitation of people and nature, according to the UN’s outgoing leading environment and human rights expert.

David Boyd, who served as UN special rapporteur on human rights and the environment from 2018 to April 2024, told the Guardian that states failing to take meaningful climate action and regulating polluting industries could soon face a slew of lawsuits.

Boyd said: “I started out six years ago talking about the right to a healthy environment having the capacity to bring about systemic and transformative changes. But this powerful human right is up against an even more powerful force in the global economy, a system that is absolutely based on the exploitation of people and nature. And unless we change that fundamental system, then we’re just re-shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.”

The right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment was finally recognised as a fundamental human right by the United Nations in 2021-22. Some countries, notably the US, the world’s worst historic polluter, argue that UN resolutions are legally influential but not binding. The right to a healthy environment is also enshrined into law by 161 countries with the UK, US and Russia among notable exceptions.

Boyd, a Canadian environmental law professor, said: “Human rights come with legally enforceable obligations on the side of states, so I believe that this absolutely should be a game-changer – and that’s why states have resisted it for so long.

“By bringing human rights into the equation, we now have institutions, processes and courts that can say to governments this isn’t an option for you to reduce your greenhouse gas emissions and phase out fossil fuels. These are obligations which include regulating businesses, to make sure that businesses respect the climate, the environment and human rights.

Over the course of his six-year mandate, Boyd met thousands of people directly affected by rising sea levels, extreme heat, plastic waste, toxic air, and dwindling food and water supplies, while undertaking fact-finding missions to Fiji, Norway, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Portugal, Slovenia, Chile, Botswana and Maldives.

“I’ve met so many people along the way in really difficult situations that I wake up in the night and see their faces,” he said.

Boyd’s final mission was to the Maldives in April, the lowest lying country on the planet, where he witnessed numerous atolls submerged under water. He said: “These islands are just like jewels scattered across the Indian Ocean, and yet for anyone who understands the science of climate change, it’s just a heartbreaking place to visit because of sea level rise, storm surges, coastal erosion, acidification, rising ocean temperatures and heatwaves.

“The future is really daunting for people in the Maldives … the climate emergency is an existential threat that overshadows all the other issues.”

Scientists have warned that about 80% of the archipelago could be uninhabitable by 2050, and totally submerged underwater by the end of the century. But the Maldives, like many other countries, also has a major plastics problem, as the fossil fuel and chemical industries continue to flood the global market with single-use packaging. About 300 tons of trash are dumped each day on Thilafushi, an island created as landfill. Still, the Maldives, like many other climate vulnerable states, depend on fossil fuels – mostly diesel powered power plants – for energy.

Boyd said: “Powerful interconnected business and political elites – the diesel mafia – are still becoming wealthy from the existing system. Dislodging this requires a huge grassroots movement using tools like human rights and public protest and every other tool in the arsenal of change-makers.”

On his first trip as special rapporteur to Fiji, Boyd met with community members from Vunidogoloa, a coastal village left uninhabitable by rising sea water, who were forced to relocate to higher ground. Last year in Botswana, he met with Indigenous people from the Kalahari desert no longer able to handle the worsening heat and water scarcity.

He said: “I think there’s millions of invisible climate migrants today, and unless we get a handle on this problem and do so quickly, that’s going to look like a trickle before the flood.”

Over the past 30 years, the world has pinned its hopes on international treaties - particularly the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris accords – to curtail global heating. Yet they do not include mechanisms for holding states accountable to their commitments, and despite some progress, greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to rise and climate breakdown is accelerating.

Last year, fossil fuel subsidies hit $7tn – a rise of $2tn since the Cop 26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021, when governments agreed to phase out “inefficient” fossil-fuel subsidies to help fight global heating.

Boyd said: “The failure to take a human rights based approach to the climate crisis – and the biodiversity crisis and the air pollution crisis – has absolutely been the achilles heel of those efforts for decades.

“I expect in the next three or four years, we will see court cases being brought challenging fossil fuel subsidies in some petro-states … These countries have said time and time again at the G7, at the G20, that they’re phasing out fossil-fuel subsidies. It’s time to hold them to their commitment. And I believe that human rights law is the vehicle that can do that.

“In a world beset by a climate emergency, fossil-fuel subsidies violate states’ fundamental, legally binding human rights obligations.”

It’s not just taxpayer subsidies propping up polluting industries and delaying climate action. The same multinationals are involved in negotiating – or at least influencing – climate policy, with a record number of fossil-fuel lobbyists given access to the UN Cop28 climate talks last year.

Boyd said: “There’s no place in the climate negotiations for fossil-fuel companies. There is no place in the plastic negotiations for plastic manufacturers. It just absolutely boggles my mind that anybody thinks they have a legitimate seat at the table.

“It has driven me crazy in the past six years that governments are just oblivious to history. We know that the tobacco industry lied through their teeth for decades. The lead industry did the same. The asbestos industry did the same. The plastics industry has done the same. The pesticide industry has done the same.”


In his final interview before handing over the special rapporteur mandate, Boyd said he struggles to makes sense of the world’s collective indifference to the suffering being caused by preventable environmental harms.

Boyd said he vividly recalls meeting Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, whose nine-year-old daughter Ella died after an asthma attack in London in 2013 – and later became the first person in the world to have air pollution cited as a cause of death. An estimated 7 million people worldwide die prematurely from air pollution each year.

“I’ll never forget Rosamund, just the sheer suffering she endured with the loss of her beautiful daughter … over 40 million people have died of air pollution since I became special rapporteur in 2018, yet I just can’t get people to care.

“I can’t get people to bat an eyelash. It’s like there’s something wrong with our brains that we can’t understand just how grave this situation is.”

“I think the right to a healthy environment is actually the foundation that we require to enjoy all other human rights. If we don’t have a living, healthy planet Earth, then all the other rights are just words on paper.”
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

kiwichick16

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1173 on: May 08, 2024, 11:37:31 PM »
most IPCC scientists , who answered a recent survey, expect global temperatures to exceed +2.5 degrees above pre industrial levels

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1174 on: May 08, 2024, 11:42:10 PM »
See 1158 above...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1175 on: May 09, 2024, 12:06:11 AM »
That's NOT the silver lining. A real optimist says that humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change. I am an optimist.

Are you thinking of all of humanity? It´s not really true for so many people. It´s also another variation on the ´tech will safe us´ mantra which is a very one sided view which ignores a whole lot of angles. Humanity favours exploitation over sharing.

The amount of poisons we dumped in the atmosphere also make healthier a harder proposition.
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Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1176 on: May 09, 2024, 02:29:37 AM »
Quote
That's NOT the silver lining. A real optimist says that humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change. I am an optimist.

A realist  says that the wealthy 10% of humanity will have a much more pleasant, longer, healthier, materially comfortable life DESPITE climate change.
That is most of us folks on here.
The other 90% are fucked .

Rich countries arent as resilient as we like to think.
Take the supermarkets away and we are screwed within a week.

Take supermarkets away from poor countries and they just continue to grow their own food.

Of course both require a system that allows food growing to happen... but poor people have the skills while the rich people have completely lost them.

My money is on the people who have skills lasting longer and better than those without them

kiwichick16

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1177 on: May 09, 2024, 03:58:32 AM »
Apologies   :-[ :(    .....i missed that Gero had already posted the Guardian article........

kiwichick16

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1178 on: May 09, 2024, 04:16:21 AM »
@  freegrass .....Norway could a good bet ......unless the AMOC shuts down

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1179 on: May 09, 2024, 06:33:49 AM »
@  freegrass .....Norway could a good bet ......unless the AMOC shuts down

And it will.

Southern Hemisphere is the better bet.

etienne

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1180 on: May 09, 2024, 06:46:37 AM »
@  freegrass .....Norway could a good bet ......unless the AMOC shuts down
Northern countries are not a good bet, it is just a feeling we have because some added degrees would bring them at a temperature average that most "developed" countries had before the industrial revolution, but there is no science to support it. They have many issues like permafrost melting, burning forests... their nature has developed for specific climatic conditions.
For example most northern countries are used to have regular rain, so if it doesn't rain during a month or two, they have a major drought that really hurts nature in all the areas where the soil isn't thick enough.
I remember seeing in Iceland grass rolled out on gabions. It is something that would never work in most places on earth.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1181 on: May 09, 2024, 07:22:09 AM »
Quote
Rich countries arent as resilient as we like to think.
Take the supermarkets away and we are screwed within a week.

Take supermarkets away from poor countries and they just continue to grow their own food.

Of course both require a system that allows food growing to happen... but poor people have the skills while the rich people have completely lost them.
Hundreds of millions rely on climate patterns from monsoon rains to the run off of snow feed streams that will fail to grow their food .
Crops fail and I just need to pay more . That new car or iPad might not be this year.
Crops fail for someone who grows their own food and they starve.
Funny thing with humans they do not just lie down and die .
They migrate.
We are looking at a world were just being alive will be challenge for hundred of millions in the tropics . If it happens to me I just turn on the air con for a few days .
https://www.science.org/content/article/lethal-levels-heat-and-humidity-are-gripping-global-hot-spots-sooner-expected
     
Us in rich nations can afford to secure our borders against the coming hoards.
Poor nations not so much.



 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1182 on: May 09, 2024, 07:25:49 AM »
@ etienne   ....why are they putting grass on gabions ?

trm1958

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1183 on: May 09, 2024, 01:19:06 PM »
We live in an age of fools...
As opposed to other ages? We have always been fools, we are just more powerful now.

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1184 on: May 09, 2024, 03:38:11 PM »
@  freegrass .....Norway could a good bet ......unless the AMOC shuts down

And it will.

Southern Hemisphere is the better bet.
So you would leave all that clean energy generation in Norway behind because it may get too cold if the AMOC shuts down?

You can all move to the poor south if you want. I will stay where the money and the energy and the weapons are. Because when the entire planet heats up, the effect of the AMOC slowdown will be minimal IMHO. Cold is what you'll want when the rest of the planet becomes unbearable to live in during summer.

I don't think the south will be liveable. It'll be destroyed by violence and war and become dystopian. Except for New Zealand maybe, and a few other remote islands.
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1185 on: May 09, 2024, 03:38:42 PM »
We live in an age of fools...
As opposed to other ages? We have always been fools, we are just more powerful now.
Good point. Look at what happened to Easter Island. They kept cutting down trees to build their statues. Even when they saw that there were hardly any trees left, they kept cutting them down, until they almost all perished.
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

etienne

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1186 on: May 09, 2024, 08:34:20 PM »
@ etienne   ....why are they putting grass on gabions ?

It looks nicer. I saw that to define the limits of a parking place near a tourist attraction

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1187 on: May 10, 2024, 02:49:10 AM »
Quote
Rich countries arent as resilient as we like to think.
Take the supermarkets away and we are screwed within a week.

Take supermarkets away from poor countries and they just continue to grow their own food.

Of course both require a system that allows food growing to happen... but poor people have the skills while the rich people have completely lost them.
Hundreds of millions rely on climate patterns from monsoon rains to the run off of snow feed streams that will fail to grow their food .
Crops fail and I just need to pay more . That new car or iPad might not be this year.
Crops fail for someone who grows their own food and they starve.
Funny thing with humans they do not just lie down and die .
They migrate.
We are looking at a world were just being alive will be challenge for hundred of millions in the tropics . If it happens to me I just turn on the air con for a few days .
https://www.science.org/content/article/lethal-levels-heat-and-humidity-are-gripping-global-hot-spots-sooner-expected
     
Us in rich nations can afford to secure our borders against the coming hoards.
Poor nations not so much.

What you are saying will happen for a short time... but, wealthy nations require nature far more than poor countries need it.

If you think the consequences is paying more for food and solving the heat is an air conditioner being turned on (ironically an action that increases the problem), then you are out of touch on how this game works.

Countries like NZ and Oz still need resources from outside their countries.
You talk about the air con... where are they made? Can NZ make them without resources from outside the country?

Trucks move goods.... where does petrol come from?

Solar and renewables.... still need the world economy for that to happen and be maintained.

Growing food... NZ and Oz are fairly good on this front... so long as fossil fuels keep happening. Do you think we will remove all fossil fuel requirements before climate change crushes global economics?

Wealthy countries require more complexity.
More complexity means more fragility.
It also gives the illusion that a complex society is more resilient... the examples from history suggest otherwise.

Poor countries will be hit hardest first... people will migrate... what they produce will cease to be produced (wheat, maize, rice, soy) which will stress rich countries out while their own food production will be affected.

Migration will become unstoppable... guess where they will go.

They will find places to survive at the expense of those who are already there.
They have the skills required to grow food and they will.

In rich countries, if we are forced to move, we are still reliant on supermarkets and money to survive... not a good combo when economics fails.

The long the collapse goes on, the more likely people who grow their food now will get stronger faster, and rich countries will fail because the complexity they require cant be maintained and they will fail rapidly leaving the population to fend for themselves... a population that needs to learn how to grow food.

If people want to survive long term and live in a rich country... become self sufficient and away from large populations or move to an isolated country that is not complex and has a low population.

The tropics are going to die, that is billions of people needing to move over the coming 5 or 6 decades.

kiwichick16

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1188 on: May 10, 2024, 04:39:09 AM »
when there is a shortage of essential supplies .....food ,water , fuel ,electricity  ......and it is not just a sort term blip ......the government steps in ......often with security supplied by the armed forces ....and rations said supplies


etienne

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1189 on: May 10, 2024, 06:08:50 AM »
Well, after the catastrophic flooding in Germany and Belgium a few years ago, I needed a new washing machine. I wanted a specific model taking warm water from the tap, which is not common in Europe, so I had to wait about 6 months to get it delivered. In Belgium, it took more than a year for everybody to have a new heater in it's house. Last time there were flooding in Luxembourg, it was not possible to get anything done excepted repairs for about a half year because there was just too much to do, workers were in short supply.
Regular destruction by climate catastrophe bring the industrial society under extreme stress because production can't follow punctual needs.

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1190 on: May 10, 2024, 06:37:48 AM »
when there is a shortage of essential supplies .....food ,water , fuel ,electricity  ......and it is not just a sort term blip ......the government steps in ......often with security supplied by the armed forces ....and rations said supplies

The Govt cant save us from this catastrophe.

In fact, I think Govts are terrible with catastrophic events and the idea that they can save us is not a good one.

Govts are awesome when things are stable and predictable though, which has given many people in these stable countries the false belief they are more resilient than is true.

As etienne has demonstrated, when problems happen, the solutions are slow.

I can give my own example of being in Samoa when the tsunami struck... the situation was chaotic and recovery was slow and painful for those involved and that was with help from Australia and NZ. Entire communities were swept away in minutes.

The images are my own, taken weeks after the event and after spending many hours helping with the clean up. A stretch of multiple kms was like this and the people living there relied on Govt support that didnt turn up for days... and this is a small island.

My brother in law and I got there before the govt organised anything (we were in the green truck) and we delivered food and water before official help turned up and weeks before Oz and NZ were able to provide in significant support.

This was a small event.

Can you imagine a destructive event that included the entire city of Auckland? Surely the recent floods there are an indication of how slow the Govt is.... and that was just a small natural event.

No.. govts are not good with disasters.
They are only good when things are predicatable and stable.

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1191 on: May 10, 2024, 12:57:58 PM »
After a disaster, the government's role is to keep order and provide food, water, shelter, and medical care.  The government does not rebuild.  It may provide necessary loans to do so, but the rebuilding (or resupplying) rests on the private sector.  When demand is high, shortages occur, until the needs can be met.  For a larger view, think of Covid, and the many shortages that occurred until changes occurred to met the new demands.  The larger the issue, the longer the wait, until normalcy is restored (or a new normal is established).

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1192 on: May 10, 2024, 04:19:24 PM »
After a disaster, the government's role is to keep order and provide food, water, shelter, and medical care.  The government does not rebuild.  It may provide necessary loans to do so, but the rebuilding (or resupplying) rests on the private sector.  When demand is high, shortages occur, until the needs can be met.  For a larger view, think of Covid, and the many shortages that occurred until changes occurred to met the new demands.  The larger the issue, the longer the wait, until normalcy is restored (or a new normal is established).

Well.... to reiterate for the cheap seats.....

The Govt did provide food, water, shelter and care to the people. The issue was how slow it was... this is normal in large disasters and anyone who decides to wait for the government to save them is more likely to die than those who take action by themselves.

That isn't a criticism of how things went down, it is the reality of what happens in disasters. Govts are slow because the logistics is complex.

In short, the government isn't going to save you in a disaster because they are overwhelmed everywhere. If you believe waiting to be saved is enough, then you are naive. But in time, they usually come through, much like they did in Samoa.

Also, the government is responsible for rebuilding....

... things like roads, power lines, infrastructure stuff. Not sure why you would think the government doesn't rebuild.

In this case, it took a while for that to happen. It took several days before they started to clear the roads. This is not a criticism, it is the reality because governments don't cope well in large disasters and the amount of work required is massive compared to the resources they have.

The community of Samoa came together to clear the roads at their own expense while the govt organised their response based on their assessments... all of which takes time. When they got organised, the progress was still slow because the amount of damage was large.

Private property etc was left to private people. Houses were lost, insurance doesn't really exist in Samoa and even if it did, I suspect they became overwhelmed as well. A LOT of people lost heir shelter that day and the consequences for them was massive. Shelter is hyper important to survival and the Govt does carry the responsibility to care for their citizens when shelter disappears suddenly via disasters.

In short, what I am sharing is an example of a disaster to demonstrate that govts are slow to respond when they happen. Govts are not good are quick, are slow to react, and it is best to not expect anything to happen fast... like finding water, food and shelter in the immediate aftermath of a disaster.

There is a world of examples for this, this is hardly eye opening information but somehow you manage to misrepresent the idea with incorrect information like "governments do not rebuild" lol


gerontocrat

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1193 on: May 10, 2024, 07:43:50 PM »
After a disaster, the government's role is to keep order and provide food, water, shelter, and medical care.  The government does not rebuild.  It may provide necessary loans to do so, but the rebuilding (or resupplying) rests on the private sector. 
Not so limited ,even in the USA.  Washed out roads, damaged dams bridges etc etc is down to Government. In the US most, but not all, of the work is contracted out by Government, but it is Government's job to fix it. The United States Army Corps of Engineers is not a small organisation. It played a major role in sorting out the levees after Katrina. Its hydroelectric projects provide 24% of U.S. hydropower capacity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Corps_of_Engineers#:~:text=Its%20most%20visible%20civil%20works,systems%20through%20various%20federal%20mandates.
Quote
The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is both a direct reporting unit (DRU) and the military engineering branch of the United States Army that has three primary mission areas: Engineer Regiment, military construction, and civil works. USACE has 37,000 civilian and military personnel,[2] making it one of the world's largest public engineering, design, and construction management agencies. The USACE workforce is approximately 97% civilian, 3% active duty military. The civilian workforce is primarily located in the United States, Europe and in select Middle East office locations. Civilians do not function as active duty military and are not required to be in active war and combat zones, however volunteer (with pay) opportunities do exist for civilians to do so.

Civil works are managed and supervised by the Assistant Secretary of the Army. Army civil works include three U.S. Congress-authorized business lines: navigation, flood and storm damage protection, and aquatic ecosystem restoration. Civil works is also tasked with administering the Clean Water Act Section 404 program, including recreation, hydropower, and water supply at USACE flood control reservoirs, and environmental infrastructure. The civil works staff oversee construction, operation, and maintenance of dams, canals and flood protection in the U.S., as well as a wide range of public works throughout the world.[3] Some of its dams, reservoirs, and flood control projects also serve as public outdoor recreation facilities. Its hydroelectric projects provide 24% of U.S. hydropower capacity.

The Corps of Engineers is headquartered in Washington, D.C., and has a budget of $7.8 billion (FY2021).[4]

The corps's mission is to "deliver vital public and military engineering services; partnering in peace and war to strengthen our nation's security, energize the economy and reduce risks from disasters."[5]

Its most visible civil works missions include:
- Planning, designing, building, and operating locks and dams. Other civil engineering projects
- include flood control, beach nourishment, and dredging for waterway navigation.
- Design and construction of flood protection systems through various federal mandates.
- Design and construction management of military facilities for the Army, Air Force, Army Reserve, and Air Force Reserve as well as other Department of Defense and federal government agencies.
- Environmental regulation and ecosystem restoration.
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The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1194 on: May 10, 2024, 09:03:35 PM »
Yes, public road and waterways are maintained by the government.  Homes, businesses, power lines, and many other areas are left to the private sectors.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1195 on: May 10, 2024, 11:55:24 PM »
Sometimes a long time after the event is a very, very, long time.

Lucky not to have a repeat event while reconstruction was in progress.

https://www.axios.com/local/new-orleans/2023/05/14/new-orleans-hurricane-katrina-schools-rebuild
Quote
New Orleans finally completes post-Katrina school restoration project
May 14, 2023 -

Nearly 18 years after Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans officials are celebrating a long-awaited milestone:

All public school buildings in the city damaged or destroyed during the storm have been rebuilt or restored.
The big picture: The project, completed in March 2023 with the opening of the Dr. Alice Geoffray High School, was the largest school rebuilding program in the country’s history.

Hurricane Katrina severely damaged or destroyed 110 of the 126 public school buildings.
The project cost about $2.1 billion and was primarily funded by FEMA.

What they did: Katrina hit in 2005, and the school facilities master plan was adopted two years later as a long-term rebuilding strategy.

It was a partnership between the Orleans Parish School Board and the Recovery School District.
In 2009, President Barack Obama visited one of the first rebuilt schools — Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. High School.

Under the master plan, there are now:
32 new schools.
17 renovated schools.
31 refurbished schools.
9 preserved schools.
The remaining 37 schools were demolished, sold or are being used as swing space to accommodate students while their schools are being renovated, according to Annie Clark with the Recovery School District.
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1196 on: May 14, 2024, 02:39:11 AM »
Tornados in and around Tallahassee, FL knocked out thousands of trees, 6 of them on my house shed and carport.🙁

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1197 on: May 14, 2024, 12:41:29 PM »
Well at least they missed the house which is more expensive. FL has tornados without climate change so attribution to AGW is slightly problematic.

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kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1198 on: May 15, 2024, 10:06:38 AM »
English schools could exceed an “overheating” threshold of 26C for one-third of the academic year if global warming reaches 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, a new study finds.

The study, published in Climate Risk Management, assesses the risk of overheating in around 20,000 schools across England, using data on the schools’ location, the type of building and the climate.

The authors identify the indoor temperature of 26C as the upper “comfortable” limit in classrooms. While the average school would be expected to surpass this limit for more than one-third of the academic year under 2C of warming, it rises to half of the year for 4C of warming.

The authors also investigate a 35C threshold, above which “important health impacts” are seen. They find that, currently, schools only exceed this temperature threshold once every year, on average.

However, under 4C warming, the average school is expected to exceed this threshold around nine times per year, accounting for 5% of the academic year.

Newer schools are more likely to overheat than their older counterparts, the authors say, because they typically have better insulation and lower ceilings. They add that schools in the south and east of England, as well as London, are at greatest risk of overheating.

...

Even when temperatures do not reach headline-grabbing highs, any increase above the “optimal” temperature can be harmful. A recent World Bank report estimates that in “middle and high-income settings”, the ideal classroom temperature lies between 19.5C and 23.3C. The report says:

“In those settings, any temperature above 24C can compromise reaction time, processing speed and accuracy through changes in heart rate and respiratory rates…

“Across five experimental studies, high temperature produced declines in student performance ranging from 2 to 12% for each 1C increase in classroom temperature.”

...

https://www.carbonbrief.org/english-schools-face-overheating-for-one-third-of-year-under-2c-warming/
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El Cid

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1199 on: May 15, 2024, 03:11:16 PM »
English schools could exceed an “overheating” threshold of 26C........

I started to laugh my ass off when I saw 26C as overheating. I think they will cope with that (most of humanity can, so hopefully even the British will...maybe they will open the windows or wear shorts and T-shirts or something like that...human ingenuity will find a way).

:) :)