2022 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,933,944 KM2 as at 20-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 54k, 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,460 k, which is 198 k, 4.6% more than the 10 year average of 4,262 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  75 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  181 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  22 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  297 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  128 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  40 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 42.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 86 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.19 million km2, 1.01 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 21^st, 2022:
     9,833,625 km², a century break drop of -100,319 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,833,625 KM2 as at 21-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 100k, 28 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,560 k, which is 226 k, 5.2% more than the 10 year average of 4,334 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  62 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  133 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  19 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  262 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  74 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  69 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 43.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 85 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.16 million km2, 0.98 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
A century break after a few days of below average sea ice extent losses.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[Shared Humanity]

SIE is at position number nine but closer to position two than position ten. Next couple of weeks will be interesting.

[Paul]

Wondered whats happened to the NSIDC area figures, do usually find out these can give some indication where extent may go in the near future.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 21-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 8,459,931 KM2         

Total Area           8,459,931    km2        240,717    km2   >   2010's average.  605,589    km2   >   2020  407,948    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -87    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -35    k   loss Central Seas___   -52    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -24    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -23    k   loss Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss CAA_________   -18    k   loss East Siberian__    15    k   gain Central Arctic__   -2    k   loss Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________   -17    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 87 k, 3 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 84 k         
         
- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 241 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 525 k more than 2016         
- Area is 408 k more than 2019         
- Area is 606 k more than 2020          
- Area is 711 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 21-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,540,134 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 84 k, 17 k more than the 2010's average loss of 67k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 40 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 92 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 8 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 40 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 707 k less than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[Stephan]

Analysis of sea ice area "relative area wise" from May 21 - June 21, 2022.

The laggards are
BEAU    -4%
CAB      -4%
ESS      -9%
Slow melting in
CAA    -15%
LAP     -25%
CHUK  -29%
Fast melting in
KAR    -39%
BAF    -40%
GRØ   -41%
The leaders are
HUD   -57%
BAR    -89%

[wallen]

Analysis of sea ice area "relative area wise" from May 21 - June 21, 2022.

The laggards are
BEAU    -4%
CAB      -4%
ESS      -9%
Slow melting in
CAA    -15%
LAP     -25%
CHUK  -29%
Fast melting in
KAR    -39%
BAF    -40%
GRØ   -41%
The leaders are
HUD   -57%
BAR    -89%

This would suggest that once the perpheral seas have melted out, there could be a substantial slow down in the extent melt rate. Let's see what the weather has to say in July.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 22^nd, 2022:
     9,730,722 km², a century break drop of -102,903 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,730,722 KM2 as at 22-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 103k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,663 k, which is 249 k, 5.6% more than the 10 year average of 4,414 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  51 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  115 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  3 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  215 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  41 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  96 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 44.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 84 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.13 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 22-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 8,352,784 KM2         

Total Area           8,352,784    km2        227,161    km2   >   2010's average.  526,215    km2   >   2020  545,296    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -107    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -41    k   loss Central Seas___   -66    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -22    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -8    k   loss Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -19    k   loss Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss CAA_________   -16    k   loss East Siberian__    7    k   gain Central Arctic__   -3    k   loss Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Kara_________   -18    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 107 k, 25 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 82 k         
         
- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 227 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 533 k more than 2016         
- Area is 545 k more than 2020         
- Area is 526 k more than 2021          
- Area is 694 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 22-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,445,072 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 95 k, 23 k more than the 2010's average loss of 72k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 57 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 72 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 15 k less than 2020         
- EXTENT is 57 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 740 k less than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 23^rd, 2022:
      9,637,720 km², a drop of -93,002 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,637,720 KM2 as at 23-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 93k, 20 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 73k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,756 k, which is 269 k, 6.0% more than the 10 year average of 4,487 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  35 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  100 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  21 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  212 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  28 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  116 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 44.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 83 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 23-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 8,238,291 KM2         

Total Area           8,238,291    km2        202,077    km2   >   2010's average.  524,050    km2   >   2021  478,902    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -114    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss Central Seas___   -80    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -3    k   loss Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -20    k   loss Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss CAA_________   -8    k   loss East Siberian__   -13    k   loss Central Arctic__   -6    k   loss Laptev_______    1    k   gain Kara_________   -18    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 114 k, 37 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 77 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 202 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 521 k more than 2016         
- Area is 479 k more than 2020         
- Area is 524 k more than 2021          
- Area is 659 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 23-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,367,325 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 78 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average loss of 80k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 54 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 76 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 89 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 22 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 742 k less than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 24^th, 2022:
      9,539,500 km², a drop of -98,220 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,539,500 KM2 as at 24-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 98k, 26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,854 k, which is 295 k, 6.5% more than the 10 year average of 4,559 k.

- Extent is at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  6 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  103 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  58 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  208 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  22 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  138 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 45.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 82 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.09 million km2, 0.91 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 24-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 8,108,507 KM2         

Total Area           8,108,507    km2        160,680    km2   >   2010's average.  480,553    km2   >   2021  413,365    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -130    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -25    k   loss Central Seas___   -105    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____    0    k   gain Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -34    k   loss Beaufort_____   -34    k   loss CAA_________   -5    k   loss East Siberian__   -13    k   loss Central Arctic__   -4    k   loss Laptev_______    3    k   gain Kara_________   -17    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 130 k, 54 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 76 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 161 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 484 k more than 2016         
- Area is 413 k more than 2020         
- Area is 481 k more than 2021          
- Area is 630 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 24-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,276,864 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 90 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 82k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 63 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 69 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 109 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 29 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 756 k less than 2012   
___________________________________
Area loss now mostly in the High Arctic      
______________________________         
click on images to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 25^th, 2022:
      9,470,827 km², a drop of -68,673 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,470,827 KM2 as at 25-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 69k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,923 k, which is 292 k, 6.3% more than the 10 year average of 4,631 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  3 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  123 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  34 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  220 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  23 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  134 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 46.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 81 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.09 million km2, 0.91 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Once again NSIDC Arctic sea ice area attempts a run down to the 2010's average - will it make it this time?

NSIDC Total AREA as at 25-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 7,967,405 KM2         

Total Area           7,967,405    km2        117,790    km2   >   2010's average.  403,556    km2   >   2021  340,857    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -141    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss Central Seas___   -112    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____    0    k   gain Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -31    k   loss Beaufort_____   -52    k   loss CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic__   -8    k   loss Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Kara_________   -16    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 141 k, 54 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 87 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 118 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 449 k more than 2016         
- Area is 341 k more than 2020         
- Area is 404 k more than 2021          
- Area is 585 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 25-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,191,354 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 86 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 81k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 66 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 73 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 97 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 31 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 754 k less than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[gerontocrat]

from NSIDC Area Data

It is the High Arctic that is having very high sea ice area loss at the moment, while loss in the peripheral regions is a bit slow.

The Chukchi and the Beaufort lead the charge at the moment.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 26^th, 2022:
      9,414,640 km², a drop of -56,187 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,414,640 KM2 as at 26-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 56k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 79k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,979 k, which is 269 k, 5.7% more than the 10 year average of 4,711 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  94 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  123 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  27 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  211 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  26 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  110 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 47.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 80 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Before I look at the NSIDC 5 day trailing average area, here is NICO's graph that looks at the NSIDC DAILY area.

On this day a 238k daily loss. Even if melt ponding is part of it - it is a whopper.

click image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 26-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 7,813,868 KM2         

Total Area           7,813,868    km2        64,795    km2   >   2010's average.  303,298    km2   >   2021  290,069    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -154    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss Central Seas___   -122    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -18    k   loss St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Greenland____   -5    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -19    k   loss Beaufort_____   -56    k   loss CAA_________   -4    k   loss East Siberian__   -10    k   loss Central Arctic__   -17    k   loss Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Kara_________   -14    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 154 k, 60 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 94 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 65 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 384 k more than 2016         
- Area is 290 k more than 2020         
- Area is 303 k more than 2021          
- Area is 548 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 26-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,117,501 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 74 k, 7 k less than the 2010's average loss of 81k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 58 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 76 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 101 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 6 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 722 k less than 2012
_________________________________
extent losses continue to lag behind area losses - by a lot   
___________________________________         
click on images to enlarge         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  7,813,868 KM2 as at 26-Jun-2022

- Area loss on this day 154k, 63 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 91k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,260 k, which is 93 k, 2% less than the 10 year average of 5,353 k.

- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Area is  303 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  290 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  384 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  548 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  70 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 53.2% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 77 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 3.10 million km2, 0.85 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 2.25 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Will the next few days continue high sea ice area losses which could be a game changer?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Steven]

Before I look at the NSIDC 5 day trailing average area, here is NICO's graph that looks at the NSIDC DAILY area.

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

Something isn't right.  Those 2 graphs are not compatible, even when accounting for 1-day vs 5-day averages.

According to Nico's graph, 2022 has been below the 2010s average in the past 5 days.  Whereas your graph shows the 5-day average is still above the 2010s average.  This cannot both be true.

I double-checked your calculations and got the same results as you.  Moreover your numbers match with the Wipneus' spreadsheet.  So the problem seems to be in Nico's graph.  I think the 2022 values in his graph are right but the values for previous years are too high by about 0.3 million km2.

[oren]

Maybe 2010s average is defined differently? Is it 2010-2019? Maybe Nico included 2020?

[gerontocrat]

There is always a lag between the 5-day trailing average and the Daily data,
During the melting season 5-day less than Daily, in the freezing season vice-versa,

On this day NSIDC daily sea ice extent is about 140k less than NSIDC 5-day extent
This is when in the last 5 days daily sea ice extent loss has been at around 75k. i.e. a 2 day lag.

My memory says Daily Sea ice area loss in the last 5 days has been about double that (on this day 238k)
5-day average sea ice area loss was 129k in the last 5 days.
A 2 day lag would be about 250 to 300k.

Conclusion - NICO's graph is correct, simply reflecting the 5-day figure lags behind the daily figure especially when losses accelerate.

So why do I use NSIDC 5-day data? Because NSIDC does not provide DAILY data by region for extent or area.

[Steven]

Maybe 2010s average is defined differently? Is it 2010-2019? Maybe Nico included 2020?

Even if he used 2011-2020 as the 2010s average, that would only account for a difference of 0.03 million km2, which is an order of magnitude too small to explain the discrepancy.

Moreover, the discrepancy applies to individual years as well.  According to Nico's graph, the latest daily value for 2022 is below 2020, 2019, and 2016.  But that doesn't match with the values from Wipneus' spreadsheet:

1-day NSIDC area:

2020-06-26:  7.21  (Wipneus)
2019-06-26:  7.20  (Wipneus)
2016-06-26:  7.34  (Wipneus)

2022-06-26:  7.45  (Nico Sun)

Did you even read my comment?  Nothing in your comment addresses that.

[oren]

Indeed, the 5-day average should be an average of 5 single-day values, therefore if it is above a certain line it cannot be that all 5 single values are below that line.
Gero the fault as I understand it is not in your numbers but in Nico's previous year numbers.
Steven I would suggest to PM TeaLight (Nico's handle here) or to post in one of "his" threads asking about this issue. It's certainly an important point as Nico's single-day chart is popular here.

[gerontocrat]

Maybe 2010s average is defined differently? Is it 2010-2019? Maybe Nico included 2020?

Even if he used 2011-2020 as the 2010s average, that would only account for a difference of 0.03 million km2, which is an order of magnitude too small to explain the discrepancy.

Moreover, the discrepancy applies to individual years as well.  According to Nico's graph, the latest daily value for 2022 is below 2020, 2019, and 2016.  But that doesn't match with the values from Wipneus' spreadsheet:

1-day NSIDC area:

2020-06-26:  7.21  (Wipneus)
2019-06-26:  7.20  (Wipneus)
2016-06-26:  7.34  (Wipneus)

2022-06-26:  7.45  (Nico Sun)

Did you even read my comment?  Nothing in your comment addresses that.

Sorry Stephen - I is a bit tired, knackered even.

Now I have to wonder if the mask used by Wipneus excludes a bit of the mask used by NSIDC and vice versa?
After all, they were developed independently - the NSIDC mask by Mieir, Strove et al?, and I understand the Wipneus mask is his amendments to the mask from by Chris Reynolds? and the late lamented Cryosphere Today?
e.g. The NSIDC Okhtosk area includes part of the Japan sea - the same with Wipneus or not?

I never tried to reconcile the total Wipneus area and extent data with the NSIDC data.
Firstly, too messy. Both include odd bits outside the 14 regions which I use in my data - i.e. the odd bits are excluded. I know that in deep winter it can mean the NSIDC total of the 14 regions can understate total NSIDC area and extent by around 200k.

Secondly, I kept them seperate, using NSIDC for the area and extent analyses, and only using Wipneus data in conjunction with PIOMAS data.

There has been a discussion somewhere on the ASIF about the problems created by ever more masks in operation (e.g. for AMSR2 data?)

time to sign off....

[Steven]

Steven I would suggest to PM TeaLight (Nico's handle here) or to post in one of "his" threads asking about this issue. It's certainly an important point as Nico's single-day chart is popular here.

Thanks, I've just sent him a PM.  I didn't mean to criticize him anyway: his website is great, and certainly there have been bugs in my own code as well.

Now I have to wonder if the mask used by Wipneus excludes a bit of the mask used by NSIDC and vice versa?

Wipneus' values match almost perfectly with the official NSIDC area.  See the table below, which compares 5-day averages of Wipneus' data vs the official NSIDC 5-day average for this date.  Minor differences in the last few years are probably due to revisions that NSIDC made since then.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 27^th, 2022:
      9,354,540 km², a drop of -60,100 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,354,540 KM2 as at 27-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 60k, 21 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 81k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,039 k, which is 248 k, 5.2% more than the 10 year average of 4,792 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  114 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  110 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  30 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  199 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  18 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  79 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 47.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 79 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.14 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

You do not often see on a day a 178k sea ice area loss compared with a 77k sea ice extent loss.
A sympton of increased ice mobility in a rubbled central arctic ice "pack"?

NSIDC Total AREA as at 27-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 7,634,998 KM2         

Total Area           7,634,998    km2       -5,522    km2   <   2010's average.  173,927    km2   >   2021  230,469    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -179    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss Central Seas___   -151    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -18    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -26    k   loss Beaufort_____   -50    k   loss CAA_________   -9    k   loss East Siberian__   -16    k   loss Central Arctic__   -32    k   loss Laptev_______   -5    k   loss Kara_________   -13    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 179 k, 73 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 106 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 6 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 278 k more than 2016         
- Area is 230 k more than 2020         
- Area is 174 k more than 2021          
- Area is 468 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 27-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 10,040,414 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 77 k, 12 k less than the 2010's average loss of 89k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 43 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 93 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 92 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 14 k more than 2021          
- EXTENT is 673 k less than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[Steven]

Another big drop of the 1-day NSIDC sea ice area today (-263k).  The daily value for 2022 is now 5th lowest for the date.  See the table below, which uses Wipneus' values up to 2021 and Nico Sun's values for 2022.

NSIDC concentration images show the recent drops are mainly due to Beaufort melt ponding, which has now spread well into the Central Arctic.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 28^th, 2022:
      9,319,095 km², a drop of -35,445 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,319,095 KM2 as at 28-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 35k, 60 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 95k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,075 k, which is 188 k, 3.8% more than the 10 year average of 4,887 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  160 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  139 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  129 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  235 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  36 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  11 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 48.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 78 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.20 million km2, 1.02 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
Extent losses measured by JAXA slow to a crawl while AREA losses measured by NSIDC are extremely high (which I can't believe is entirely due to melt ponding). Will these area losses translate into high extent losses later on?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 28-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 7,470,657 KM2         

Total Area           7,470,657    km2       -58,458    km2   <   2010's average.  65,712    km2   >   2021  157,360    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -164    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss Central Seas___   -133    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -7    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -23    k   loss Beaufort_____   -34    k   loss CAA_________   -12    k   loss East Siberian__   -8    k   loss Central Arctic__   -48    k   loss Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Kara_________   -8    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 164 k, 55 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 109 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 58 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 196 k more than 2016         
- Area is 157 k more than 2020         
- Area is 66 k more than 2021          
- Area is 416 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 28-Jun-2022 (5 day trailing average) 9,980,173 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 60 k, 33 k less than the 2010's average loss of 93k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 4 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 128 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 102 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 63 k more than 2021          
- EXTENT is 599 k less than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  7,470,657 KM2 as at 28-Jun-2022

- Area loss on this day 164k, 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 100k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,603 k, which is 51 k, 1% more than the 10 year average of 5,553 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Area is  66 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  157 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  196 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  416 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  52 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 55.1% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 75 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 2.95 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 2.25 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 29^th, 2022:
      9,245,270 km², a drop of -73,825 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,245,270 KM2 as at 29-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 74k, 27 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,149 k, which is 160 k, 3.2% more than the 10 year average of 4,988 k.

- Extent is at position #10 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  151 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  195 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  150 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  212 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  81 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  8 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 49.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 77 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.22 million km2, 1.05 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC did not produce an update today.

Tomorrow is another day.....

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 30^th, 2022:
      9,192,993 km², a drop of -52,277 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,192,993 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2022

- Extent loss on this day 52k, 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 87k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,201 k, which is 125 k, 2.5% more than the 10 year average of 5,076 k.

- Extent is at position #10 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  156 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  274 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  157 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  219 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  153 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  36 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 50.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 76 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.26 million km2, 1.08 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 7th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
In this last few days daily sea ice extent loss has been well below average so extent now 36k km2 above the 2010's average
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

from JAXA Data - a bit more

Until the last week of June, daily sea ice losses tended to be above average, but reversed in the last week. This can be seen in the 7-day trailing average daily change graph

The June Monthly Average graph and rankings table refects a slow May melt and a variable June melt.  The June 22 monthly average at 10.26 million km2 is 11th in the 44 year satellite record, and 0.30 million km2 above the long-term linear trend, This is also 0.15 million km2 more than the June 21 average, which was 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The 365 day trailing average this month has been consistently above that of June 21, meaning the average increased during the month. The projection is based on daily change from now at the 10 year average.

[Steven]

Steven I would suggest to PM TeaLight (Nico's handle here) or to post in one of "his" threads asking about this issue. It's certainly an important point as Nico's single-day chart is popular here.

Meanwhile, I got a reply from TeaLight.  The reason for the bug was that there were 2 days missing for 2022.  So the 2022 line in his sea ice area graph was shifted too much to the left compared to the previous years, which made the values for previous years appear too high compared to 2022.

He fixed the bug today.  The graph should be OK now.  https://cryospherecomputing.com/

[gerontocrat]

Steven I would suggest to PM TeaLight (Nico's handle here) or to post in one of "his" threads asking about this issue. It's certainly an important point as Nico's single-day chart is popular here.

Meanwhile, I got a reply from TeaLight.  The reason for the bug was that there were 2 days missing for 2022.  So the 2022 line in his sea ice area graph was shifted too much to the left compared to the previous years, which made the values for previous years appear too high compared to 2022.

He fixed the bug today.  The graph should be OK now.  https://cryospherecomputing.com/

Hullo Steven,

I forgot about that. It gave me some problems.

I cheated and interpolated the missing values in a linear fashion.

Gero

[oren]

Nicely solved.