2022 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,607,379 KM2 as at 28-Aug-2022

- Area loss on this day 62k, 32 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,467 k, which is 369 k, 3.7% less than the 10 year average of 9,835 k.

- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record

- Area is  164 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  824 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  862 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  1,029 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  309 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.7% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 14 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.37 million km2, 1.12 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 29^th, 2022:
      5,062,630 km², a drop of -31,558 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,062,630 KM2 as at 29-Aug-2022

- Extent loss on this day 32k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,331 k, which is 323 k, 3.3% less than the 10 year average of 9,654 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  56 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  1,004 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  734 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  659 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,512 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  416 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 16 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.71 million km2, 1.53 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,563,107 KM2 as at 29-Aug-2022

- Area loss on this day 44k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,511 k, which is 351 k, 3.6% less than the 10 year average of 9,862 k.

- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record

- Area is  160 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  793 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  851 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  1,028 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  291 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.9% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 13 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.35 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 30^th, 2022:
      5,008,743 km², a drop of -53,887 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,008,743 KM2 as at 30-Aug-2022

- Extent loss on this day 54k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,385 k, which is 305 k, 3.1% less than the 10 year average of 9,690 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  21 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  1,014 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  707 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  706 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,470 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  399 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 15 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.69 million km2, 1.51 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 31^st, 2022:
      4,958,084 km², a drop of -50,659 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,958,084 KM2 as at 31-Aug-2022

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,436 k, which is 289 k, 3.0% less than the 10 year average of 9,725 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  27 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,015 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  699 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  715 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,449 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  383 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 14 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.67 million km2, 1.50 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

From JAXA Sea Ice Extent Data - a bit more

Another month gone by - on average now only about 2 weeks left to minimum with ever-reducing daily sea ice loss.

The August '22 monthly average is 5.73 million km2, 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record. This is 0.73 million km2 above the long-term linear trend and 0.21 million km2 above Aug '21 which was 10th lowest in the satellite record.

The 365 day trailing average continues to rise, as it has since April '21. This is simply because 2021 extent was higher than 2020, and 2022 daily extent is mostly higher than 2021.
However, as at 31 August 2022 extent is below the 2021 extent for the day.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,543,335 KM2 as at 31-Aug-2022

- Area loss on this day 10k, 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,531 k, which is 383 k, 3.9% less than the 10 year average of 9,914 k.

- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record

- Area is  231 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  802 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  866 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  1,052 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  325 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 98.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 11 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.39 million km2, 1.14 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 1^st, 2022:
      4,905,143 km², a drop of -52,941 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,905,143 KM2 as at 01-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,489 k, which is 268 k, 2.7% less than the 10 year average of 9,756 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  63 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,010 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  657 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  737 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,429 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  356 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 13 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.65 million km2, 1.47 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,527,119 KM2 as at 01-Sep-2022

- Area loss on this day 16k, 6 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,547 k, which is 389 k, 3.9% less than the 10 year average of 9,936 k.

- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record

- Area is  242 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  779 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  869 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  1,063 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  333 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 98.7% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 10 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.39 million km2, 1.14 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 2^nd, 2022:
      4,850,092 km², a drop of -55,051 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[Tom Stedman]

4,850k. Into 14th place at least, beating the 2014 minimum.
Maybe tomorrow, we'll go below 2013.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,850,092 KM2 as at 02-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 55k, 32 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,544 k, which is 235 k, 2.4% less than the 10 year average of 9,779 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  110 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  989 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  635 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  760 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,404 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  324 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 12 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.62 million km2, 1.44 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 3^rd, 2022:
      4,822,281 km², a drop of -27,811 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

P.S. I won't be able to post tomorrow.
I appreciate if someone else does it.   

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,822,281 KM2 as at 03-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 28k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,572 k, which is 222 k, 2.3% less than the 10 year average of 9,794 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  150 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,018 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  648 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  768 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,377 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  318 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 11 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.61 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 03-Sep-2022 (5 day trailing average) 3,443,410 KM2         

Total Area           3,443,410    km2        288,866    km2   >   2010's average.  176,518    km2   >   2021  667,068    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -53    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss Central Seas___   -43    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -7    k   loss Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -3    k   loss Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic__   -16    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Kara_________   -1    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 53 k, 38 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 15 k         
         
- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 289 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 847 k more than 2016         
- Area is 667 k more than 2020         
- Area is 177 k more than 2021          
- Area is 1,014 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Sep-2022 (5 day trailing average) 5,073,792 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 63 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average loss of 36k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 364 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 248 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 935 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 13 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 1,452 k more than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[Stephan]

Results of August melt "relative area wise" from July 31 to August 31.
Gain in
GRØ     + 3%
Very slow loss in
CAB      - 4%
Slow loss in
LAP      -31%
KAR     -32% *
Medium loss in
BEAU   -50%
CAA     -57%
HUD    -59% *
Fast loss in
ESS     -67%
BAF     -74% *
The leader is
CHUK  -84%

* The very low actual value has a lot of uncertainties, especially around beaches and islands, therefore the actual loss rate may be higher than indicated here.

[phelan]

JAXA extent at 4,804,315 km2, down 17,966 km2 today.

Today's drop brought 2022 below the 2013 minimum, there are 12 years with a lower minimum than 2022's current extent.  Sadly that means '13 will never be 13th again.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,804,315 KM2 as at 04-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 18k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,590 k, which is 228 k, 2.3% less than the 10 year average of 9,817 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  128 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,072 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  646 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  748 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,390 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  321 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 98.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 10 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.61 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 5^th, 2022:
      4,777,948 km², a drop of -26,367 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,777,948 KM2 as at 05-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 26k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,616 k, which is 232 k, 2.4% less than the 10 year average of 9,848 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  67 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,091 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  602 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  732 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,412 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  321 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 98.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 9 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.62 million km2, 1.44 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,325,008 KM2 as at 05-Sep-2022

- Area loss on this day 57k, 47 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,749 k, which is 241 k, 2.4% less than the 10 year average of 9,990 k.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record

- Area is  19 k MORE than 2021,
- Area is  529 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  811 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  954 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  213 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.3% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 6 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.25 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Graphs from NSIDC 5-day trailing average data

Total sea ice area is now almost down to 2021 levels.

In the High Arctic seas, 2022 extent and area are both below 2021 levels while in the Peripheral seas the reverse is true, all down to the Greenland Sea totally melting out in 2021 and remaining high in 2022.

click images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 6^th, 2022:
      4,765,365 km², a drop of -12,583 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,765,365 KM2 as at 06-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 13k, 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,629 k, which is 251 k, 2.5% less than the 10 year average of 9,880 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  3 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,106 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  589 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  743 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,440 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  339 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 98.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 8 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.63 million km2, 1.46 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Sep-2022 (5 day trailing average) 3,274,029 KM2         

Total Area           3,274,029    km2        171,111    km2   >   2010's average. -44,959    km2   <   2021  489,018    km2   >   2020           Total Change   -51    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss Central Seas___   -49    k   loss           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______   -1    k   loss Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -8    k   loss Central Arctic__   -30    k   loss Laptev_______    4    k   gain Kara_________   -1    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 51 k, 42 k more than the last 10 years average loss of 9 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 171 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 785 k more than 2016         
- Area is 489 k more than 2020         
- Area is 45 k less than 2021          
- Area is 919 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Sep-2022 (5 day trailing average) 4,912,414 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 35 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 23k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 293 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 164 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 944 k more than 2020         
- EXTENT is 100 k less than 2021          
- EXTENT is 1,387 k more than 2012         
         
click on images to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 7^th, 2022:
      4,730,680 km², a drop of -34,685 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,730,680 KM2 as at 07-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 35k, 11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,663 k, which is 240 k, 2.4% less than the 10 year average of 9,904 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  20 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,123 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  562 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  713 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,418 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  329 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 98.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 7 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.62 million km2, 1.45 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,247,506 KM2 as at 07-Sep-2022

- Area loss on this day 27k, 17 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,827 k, which is 182 k, 1.8% less than the 10 year average of 10,008 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Area is  81 k LESS than 2021,
- Area is  483 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  789 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  906 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  162 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.5% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 4 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.20 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
We're almost there?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data from NSIDC 5-day trailing average sea ice extent data

While 2022 sea ice extent and area in the Peripheral Seas remians well above 2021 (due to the Greenland Sea NE of Greenland not melting out while it did in 2021), it is a different story in the seven regions of the High Arctic.

So here is a look at High Arctic sea ice extent.

NSIDC HIGH ARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (5-day trailing average):  4,558,546 KM2 as at 07-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 26k, 5 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,292 k, which is 261 k, 6% less than the 10 year average of 4,553 k.

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record

- Extent is  320 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  895 k MORE than  2020,
- Extent is  30 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,364 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  308 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.8% of extent losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 8 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 4.41 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.04 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 8^th, 2022:
      4,713,236 km², a drop of -17,444 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,713,236 KM2 as at 08-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 17k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,681 k, which is 241 k, 2.4% less than the 10 year average of 9,921 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  20 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  1,123 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  550 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  689 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,412 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  330 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 6 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.63 million km2, 1.45 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,228,084 KM2 as at 08-Sep-2022

- Area loss on this day 19k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,846 k, which is 172 k, 1.7% less than the 10 year average of 10,018 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Area is  109 k LESS than 2021,
- Area is  479 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  779 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  899 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  156 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.6% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 3 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.19 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 9^th, 2022:
      4,684,999 km², a drop of -28,237 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,684,999 KM2 as at 09-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 28k, 15 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,709 k, which is 225 k, 2.3% less than the 10 year average of 9,934 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  2 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  1,099 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  515 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  654 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,403 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  314 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 5 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.61 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[Tom Stedman]

JAXA extent 4,666K for 10 of September 2022

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,666,022 KM2 as at 10-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 19k, 23 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,728 k, which is 202 k, 2.0% less than the 10 year average of 9,930 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  6 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  1,095 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  516 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  590 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,401 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  289 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 4 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.59 million km2, 1.41 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
There is a faint chance of the minimum coming in at just below 4.5 million (e.g. if remaining melt equalled that of 2019)
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,219,806 KM2 as at 10-Sep-2022

- Area loss on this day 1k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,854 k, which is 176 k, 1.8% less than the 10 year average of 10,030 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Area is  136 k LESS than 2021,
- Area is  474 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  710 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  915 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  162 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.8% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 1 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.20 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Tom Stedman]

JAXA extent 4,660K.. a small drop on 11 September.
Are we approaching minimum just short of last year's extent?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,660,742 KM2 as at 11-Sep-2022

- Extent loss on this day 5k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,733 k, which is 205 k, 2.1% less than the 10 year average of 9,938 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  13 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  1,098 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  550 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  536 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,426 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  284 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 3 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.60 million km2, 1.42 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
Projections now fairly meaningless as extent dithers around
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,226,915 KM2 as at 11-Sep-2022

- Area gain on this day 7k, 4 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,847 k, which is 180 k, 1.8% less than the 10 year average of 10,027 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Area is  157 k LESS than 2021,
- Area is  471 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  666 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  933 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  169 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.9% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and -1 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2022 of 3.21 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[VeliAlbertKallio]

In my view there is something wrong with this NASA graph, especially how the red line diverges from the blue monthly columns and 20-year line being flat. Explanations on sea ice extent, please!

[Tom Stedman]

JAXA extent 4,631K, a slightly larger drop than yesterday.
2022 might just make 11th lowest with a similar drop tomorrow.

[phelan]

As it stands today after a drop of 29,677 km2, 2022 JAXA extent is:

8,973 km2 more than 2010 minimum (currently #12)
18,150 km2 more than 2021 minimum (currently #11)
130,442 km2 more than 2008 minimum (currently #10)

[phelan]

In my view there is something wrong with this NASA graph, especially how the red line diverges from the blue monthly columns and 20-year line being flat. Explanations on sea ice extent, please!

That's a weird chart.  It looks intentionally confusing.  I'll take a stab even if I'm wrong...

The blue lines measure the anomaly difference against the baseline of 1981-2020 mean monthly extent (I'm guessing the average monthly extent?).

The red line measures (I think) the yearly change in the monthly average extent anomaly, i.e. from year-to year, so July 2022 vs. July 2021.  It's not showing the anomaly, it's measuring how much the extent anomaly has changed from, say, July 2021 to July 2022, or October 2018 to October 2019 (random examples), when compared against the baseline of 1981-2020.

Since 2012 the extent numbers have all been pretty low, so even though the anomaly against the baseline is quite significant, the anomaly itself hasn't been getting larger with every year.  Compared to 2012 with it's quite large anomaly against baseline, and much larger than the 2011 anomaly, later years don't stand out so much against the mean when compared to each other.  And the red line trends to zero when comparing 2021 to 2022, since they've had pretty similar extent numbers. 

[icy voyeur2]

In my view there is something wrong with this NASA graph, especially how the red line diverges from the blue monthly columns and 20-year line being flat. Explanations on sea ice extent, please!

The blue bars have a fixed reference of the years 1981 to 2000 but the red line has a floating reference point of the last 20 years. The red line apparently begins in 1998 using a reference of 1978 to 1997. As I read the graph, it's showing that the rate of anomaly is changing compared to that fixed reference baseline of 1981 - 2000. There was a period of accelerating decreases but that has ended. It's a rather odd calculation, but if I understand the point, it is referencing a period of rapidly accelerating losses that has settled down.

Risking myself further, perhaps we saw a period where we increasingly lost a great deal of vulnerable ice but have reached a more resilient phase. That said, beware of phase changes.

[Brigantine]

As it stands today after a drop of 29,677 km2, 2022 JAXA extent is:

8,973 km2 more than 2010 minimum (currently #12)
18,150 km2 more than 2021 minimum (currently #11)
130,442 km2 more than 2008 minimum (currently #10)

And that 2021 minimum for the season also occurred on today's date.
So for Sep 12 Daily extent values, 2022 is also 18,150 km² more than 2021.
From tomorrow, 2021 increases monotonously until December