2022 Mauna Loa CO2 levels

[Stephan]

Cross post from the posting I just made in the "2021 Mauna Loa CO₂ levels" thread.

The first Sunday posting of 2022 Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on December 26, 2021:     417.46 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   415.32 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                392.43 ppm
Last updated: January 2, 2022

This weekly average is a little bit lower than last week. The annual increase is back down to 2.14 ppm, below the 10y average of 2.50 ppm. The hourly values were much more stable than last week.

[Stephan]

The second Mauna Loa CO₂ posting this year is ready.

Week beginning on January 2, 2022:     417.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              415.44 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           393.18 ppm
Last updated: January 9, 2022

The annual increase of 1.99 ppm is lower than last week and lower than the 10 y average of 2.43 ppm/a.
This week was characterised by many ups and downs (more downs) and though probably below the annual increase it was supposed to be.
January is usually relatively flat, the next steeper increase shall be expected for February.

[Renerpho]

NOAA data
Scripps data
Met Office forecast (2021)

(Cross-post from the 2021 thread)

The annual CO2 rise this year was predicted by MetOffice to be 2.29±0.55 ppm. In 2021, CO2 levels rose by 2.41 ppm (NOAA) or 2.15 ppm (Scripps), respectively. The difference between the two is due to the change of scale by NOAA in February of this year, and is consistent with the expected offset between the old and new scales (0.2-0.3 ppm).

CO2 levels in December 2021 (416.71 ppm) were in line with the MetOffice prediction of 416.8 ppm.

I hope the next update will include a MetOffice forecast for 2022.

[Renerpho]

Met Office forecast (2021)

I hope the next update will include a MetOffice forecast for 2022.

I should have waited another day. The forecast has now been published. I have updated my chart.

A few words about the 2022 forecast (detailed discussion at the link below):
The CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa is predicted to rise by 2.14±0.52 ppm in 2022, to an annual average of 418.3±0.5 ppm. The rate of increase will be slightly lower than in some of the previous years (2010s decadal average: 2.4 ppm/year), due to the prevailing La Niña conditions. If sea surface temperatures were neutral, the expected rate of increase would be 2.38 ppm, coinciding with the long term trend. The expected rise of 2.14 ppm will be the largest annual increment on record for a La Niña year.

Met Office forecast (2022)

[Stephan]

Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on January 9, 2022:     418.33 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              415.06 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          393.99 ppm
Last updated: January 16, 2022

The annual increase made a large jump on 3.27 ppm, which is much higher than the 10 y average of 2.43 ppm/a. This is not typical for January which usually is kind of flat. The latest value is almost 1.5 ppm above the latest value of last week, combined with a huge intra-day variability. I hope that next week the annual increase will go down to the 10 y average.

[Stephan]

A new weekly average of Mauna Loa CO₂ levels means that it is Sunday evening in Central Europe.

Week beginning on January 16, 2022:     417.62 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               415.26 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            392.90 ppm
Last updated: January 23, 2022

The annual increase has gone down to "normal" levels. In addition the weekly average is back where it used to be, almost at the level of two weeks ago.
The numbers: Annual increase is 2.36 ppm, below the 10 y average of 2.47 ppm/a.
The values showed a low intra- und inter-day variability. No "unavailable" days.

[Stephan]

Another Sunday evening - another weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average...

Week beginning on January 23, 2022:     419.13 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               416.04 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            393.57 ppm
Last updated: January 30, 2022

The annual increase has jumped back to above 3 ppm. It is also higher than the 10 y average of 2.56 ppm/a. But this shouldn't be taken too seriously as there were three days above the "baseline" and another "unavailable" day.

[Stephan]

Sunday again - how time flies...
The latest weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average is ready:

Week beginning on January 30, 2022:     419.19 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               416.89 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            393.28 ppm
Last updated: February 6, 2022

After the spike last week things returned to the normal level, including a very low signal to noise ratio in the data. The annual increase is back down to 2.30 ppm, below the 10y average of 2.59 ppm/a.

[Stephan]

Please find attached the latest monthly average of Mauna Loa CO₂:

January 2022:       418.19 ppm
January 2021:       415.52 ppm
January 2012:           393.12 ppm
Last updated: February 8, 2022

The annual increase is back at 2.67 ppm. This is above the 10y average of 2.51 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. January 2022 is at 123.5 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.62 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by +0.05 ppm/a above it.

[gerontocrat]

And here are the graphs for Mauna Loa & Global CO2 ppm measurements.

click to enlarge

[Stephan]

Sunday evening - time to give you an update on Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

A very early February minimum.

Week beginning on February 6, 2022:     418.38 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               417.04 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            393.99 ppm
Last updated: February 13, 2022

Usually there is a larger pause in the seasonal increase between minimum (Sept/Oct) and maximum (May) in February.
This year it seems to have set in earlier than usual. The annual increase therefore has gone down to 1.34 ppm which is one of the lowest values in the last year(s) {I do not record them}.
At the beginning of last week the values were quite variable with one "unavailable" day, but settled in the end of this week.

[Renerpho]

NOAA data
Scripps data
Met Office forecast

Both NOAA and Scripps just reached their highest ever daily averages on February 13/14, at 421.59 and 421.29 ppm, respectively (previous records from spring 2021: 421.36 and 420.29 ppm). However, CO2 levels have generally been more variable since December than they had been in 2020 or 2021. The last year with similar variability at this time of the year was 2019. In that year, both NOAA and Scripps reached record high values in January.

Nontheless, CO2 levels in January (418.19 ppm) were somewhat higher than the MetOffice prediction of 417.5 ppm. The year-to-year increase in the monthly average (2.67 ppm) is the highest ever observed under La Niña conditions. So far, this trend has continued into February. Recently, the La Niña has begun to collapse, and El Niño conditions are predicted to emerge in fall.

[Stephan]

As every Sunday evening another weekly average of Mauna Loa CO₂ is available.

Week beginning on February 13, 2022:     419.76 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 416.59 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              394.02 ppm
Last updated: February 20, 2022

The annual increase is back to high levels (3.17 ppm), and higher than the 10 y average of 2.57 ppm/a.
One of the reasons - renerpho has mentioned it in his post from this week - is that the highest ever recorded daily average has happened on Feb 13. I think it is too early to have such a record value [higher than last maximum in April / May] already in February, but the inter-day variations are quite high at the moment.
After this maximum the values went down again, so hopefully next week there are much lower annual increase rates. Nevertheless, the values are much too high compared to pre-industrial and there is no sign that the annual increase will go down towards zero in the next time...

[Renerpho]

I think it is too early to have such a record value [higher than last maximum in April / May] already in February, but the inter-day variations are quite high at the moment.

I wouldn't say it is "too early". In 2019, we had record values in January, which surpassed the record set in May 2018 by almost 2 ppm. Variability at that time was even higher than it is now. CO2 levels in (northern hemisphere) spring are always more variable than they are during the rest of the year, and there is little statistical significance to these early record highs. What is significant and concerning are the weekly and monthly averages, which have been considerably higher than predicted for the past 2 months, as well as the slowing La Niña.

EDIT: Of course I agree that the values are too high overall, compared to what they should be. But that's a different story. 

[Stephan]

I was so absorbed by the unbelievable and unforgiveable attack by Putin on Ukraine today that I almost forgot to post the latest CO₂ average from Mauna Loa.

Week beginning on February 20, 2022:     419.62 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                     416.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             394.30 ppm
Last updated: February 27, 2022

The very high increase rate of 3.32 ppm which is much higher than the 10 y average of 2.53 ppm/a. Hopefully this is due to three days of "above baseline" data which should lead to a lower annual increase next week.

[Renerpho]

Hopefully this is due to three days of "above baseline" data which should lead to a lower annual increase next week.

That, and a "bump" in CO2 levels at this time in 2021. The two following weeks were considerably higher last year, so increases should get back to normal.

[Stephan]

Another weekend has almost passed. Here is the latest weekly average from Mauna Loa CO₂.

Week beginning on February 27, 2022:     419.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 417.68 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              394.54 ppm
Last updated: March 6, 2022

Back to the baseline again, finally. The annual increase is down to 1.52 ppm, much lower than the last two weeks and lower than the 10 y average of 2.47 ppm/a. A little piece of salt: Last year this week has been higher than usual, so this low annual increase should be exceptional.

[Stephan]

Please find attached the latest monthly average of Mauna Loa CO₂:

February 2022:       419.28 ppm
February 2021:       416.75 ppm
February 2012:        393.86 ppm
Last updated: March 7, 2022

It is the highest monthly average in modern human's history, higher than in May 2021!

The annual increase is at 2.53 ppm which is very close to the 10y average of 2.54 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. February 2022 is at 123.8 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.62 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -0.09 ppm/a below it.

[gerontocrat]

& here is the graph - global CO2 graph also attached

click image to enlarge

[Stephan]

Sunday evening in Germany means a new weekly average of Mauna Loa CO₂.

Week beginning on March 6, 2022:     418.51 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           417.20 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        393.54 ppm
Last updated: March 13, 2022

The annual increase is very low at 1.31 ppm. The 10 y average is at 2.50 ppm/a.
This week showed comparably low values at four days. The variability remained small.

[Renerpho]

NOAA data
Scripps data
Met Office forecast

CO2 levels have been relatively low for the past two weeks, at least compared with the two months that came before. The levels are now back close to those predicted in the Met Office forecast. If the year ended today, the yearly increase would be 2.39 ppm. That is slightly below the long term trend (2.50 ppm), but an all time record when under La Niña conditions, by some margin.

The decline in La Niña, which had been observed since January, has slowed down, and it now looks like La Niña conditions will hang around for a few more months.

[Stephan]

A belated actualisation of Mauna Loa CO₂ levels. Belated because what had happened in Buča near Kyiv is so incredible. I am upset.

Week beginning on March 27, 2022:     420.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             417.41 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          395.30 ppm
Last updated: April 3, 2022

The annual increase is back to almost 3 ppm, higher than the 10 y average of 2.50 ppm. There has been a jump in the values from March 27 on which led to the highest ever recorded weekly average of CO₂.

[Stephan]

Please find attached the latest monthly average of Mauna Loa CO₂:

March 2022:       418.81 ppm
March 2021:       417.64 ppm
March 2012:      394.40 ppm
Last updated: April 7, 2022

Interestingly the March average is below the February average.

The annual increase is at 1.17 ppm which is very much below the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. March 2022 is at 123.6 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.62 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -1.45 ppm/a below it.

[gerontocrat]

Here is the graph, and the Global CO2 measure to Jan 22

click to enlarge

[Tor Bejnar]

The annual increase is at 1.17 ppm which is very much below the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

Yeah!  May such data become more frequent, in fact, take over (and remain accurate).  I'll really celebrate when I read "annual decrease" instead of "annual increase."

[gerontocrat]

The annual increase is at 1.17 ppm which is very much below the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

Yeah!  May such data become more frequent, in fact, take over (and remain accurate).  I'll really celebrate when I read "annual decrease" instead of "annual increase."

Methinks you may have to wait a long time for the magic words "annual decrease".
The very low 1.17ppm annual increase Mar 21 to Mar 22 may well be partly due to a very high Mar 21 value of 416.08 (which was a very high annual increase from March 2020 of 2.90 ppm).

Also note Stephan's post on the CO2 ppm for the last week of March...

Week beginning on March 27, 2022:     420.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             417.41 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          395.30 ppm
Last updated: April 3, 2022

The annual increase is back to almost 3 ppm, higher than the 10 y average of 2.50 ppm. There has been a jump in the values from March 27 on which led to the highest ever recorded weekly average of CO2.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening in Germany. Time for a new weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on April 3, 2022:     420.19 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         419.62 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     395.58 ppm
Last updated: April 10, 2022

The annual increase this week (0.57 ppm/a) was one of the lowest since I observe these data. This is the opposite of what happened the week before. This is more the consequence of a relevant uptick in 2021 (1.25 ppm higher than the week before) than of decreasing daily averages of last week.
Anyway, the big picture will not be changed by this week's slow increase rate.

[kassy]

Difference vs 10 years is 25.07 vs 24.61 which is also just 0.46 so it might be a time of the year thing (many NH plants are beginning to grow leaves now).

[Stephan]

Sunday evening - again time for an update of Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on April 10, 2022:     420.16 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          419.00 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       396.76 ppm
Last updated: April 17, 2022

The annual increase of 1.16 ppm is higher than last week, but still much lower than the 10 y average of 2.34 ppm/a. It is nevertheless higher than it could have been if the values have stayed on the lower level (as on April 11 and 12).

[Stephan]

Like every Sunday evening a new weekly average from Mauna Loa CO₂ is available.

Week beginning on April 17, 2022:     420.35 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             418.15 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     396.38 ppm
Last updated: April 24, 2022

The annual increase is back to "normal" levels (I'd like to have an increase of below 0.00 ppm/a as "normal"  ). The increase is 2.20 ppm, lower than the 10 year average of 2.40 ppm.
The higher increase rate is not due to higher daily values but to a low weekly average last year. Next week last year had the highest seasonal average, therefore the annual increase will go down massively.

[Stephan]

Here is the latest weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average. The record average of March 27, 2022 has not been broken, yet.

Week beginning on April 24, 2022:     420.19 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           419.68 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        396.82 ppm
Last updated: May 1, 2022

The annual increase is at 0.51 ppm/a, close to the values we experienced in the early 1960s!
This year the seasonal maximum seems to be a long, flat plain. Maybe we won't reach the March 27 average anymore. Would be good...

[kassy]

Monthly average carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have reached above 420 parts per million (ppm) for the first time on record.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/carbon-dioxide-record-co2-b2072614.html



#            decimal       monthly    de-season  #days  st.dev  unc. of
#             date         average     alized          of days  mon mean
1958    3   1958.2027      315.70      314.43     -1   -9.99   -0.99
1972    5   1972.3716      330.07      327.14     -1   -9.99   -0.99
1986    5   1986.3750      350.52      347.42     18    0.31    0.14
2002    4   2002.2917      375.19      372.54     29    0.55    0.19
2009    5   2009.3750      390.36      387.24     30    0.51    0.18
2013    5   2013.3750      400.02      396.64     28    0.37    0.13
2016    3   2016.2083      405.06      403.54     28    0.81    0.29
2018    4   2018.2917      410.45      407.65     21    0.90    0.38
2021    1   2021.0417      415.52      415.16     29    0.44    0.16
2020    4   2020.2917      416.45      413.70     28    0.66    0.24
2020    5   2020.3750      417.31      413.82     27    0.61    0.23
2021    6   2021.4583      418.94      416.51     28    0.65    0.23 (so after 419 was hit)
2021    4   2021.2917      419.05      416.30     24    1.12    0.44
2022    4   2022.2917      420.23      417.48     28    0.91    0.33

https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

[Stephan]

Please find attached the latest monthly average of Mauna Loa CO₂:

April 2022:       420.23 ppm
April 2021:       419.05 ppm
April 2012:        396.18 ppm
Last updated: May 5, 2022

The annual increase is at 1.18 ppm which is very much below the 10y average of 2.41 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. April 2022 is at 124.1 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.62 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -1.44 ppm/a below it.

[gerontocrat]

The low annual increase in CO2 ppm in April 2022 is really an oddity given that we know that 2022 has seen the post-covid rebound in emissions continue unabated.  If it continues over the next months many will be scratching their heads and asking - What's going on?

Global CO2 ppm graph to Feb 22 shows quite a high annual increase.

graphs attached - click to enlarge

[Stephan]

I completely forgot to post my Sunday evening weekly average last week:

Week beginning on May 1, 2022:     420.18 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             419.81 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     397.15 ppm
Last updated: May 14, 2022

This is a very low increase of 0.37 ppm/a. The seasonal maximum is still very flat, and the maximum we had on March 27 has not yet been topped.
But the last days showed a relevant increase into 422 ppm - let us see what comes out tomorrow when the next weekly average has been published.

[Stephan]

This week I will not miss the latest CO₂ weekly average from Mauna Loa:

Week beginning on May 8, 2022:     421.13 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        418.34 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     397.38 ppm
Last updated: May 15, 2022

This is the highest ever measured weekly average. The annual increase is back where it used to be for a too long time (2.79 ppm/a) and above the 10 y average of 2.38 ppm/a. Since May 11 the daily values are on a higher lever than the weeks before. The intraday variability was very small.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening - another update from Mauna Loa CO₂.

Week beginning on May 15, 2022:     420.97 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          419.35 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       397.06 ppm
Last updated: May 22, 2022

The annual increase went down to 1.62 ppm, much lower than the 10 y average of 2.39 ppm/a. From May 18 on the daily values went down to a lower level which also lowered the weekly average. The intra-day variations were much higher than the inter-day variability.