Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
The estimates come from the 2022 Global Carbon Budget report by the Global Carbon Project. It finds that the increase in fossil emissions in 2022 has been primarily driven by a strong increase in oil emissions as global travel continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Coal and gas emissions grew more slowly, though both had record emissions in 2022.Total global CO2 emissions – including land use and fossil CO2 – increased by approximately 0.8% in 2022, driven by a combination of steady land-use emissions between 2021 and 2022 and increasing fossil CO2 emissions. However, total CO2 emissions remain below their highs set in 2019 and have been relatively flat since 2015.The 17th edition of the Global Carbon Budget, which is published today, also reveals:- The remaining carbon budget keeping warming below 1.5C will be gone in nine years, if emissions remain at current levels.- The increase in global fossil emissions in 2022 was driven by a small increase in US emissions and a larger increase in Indian and rest-of-the-world emissions. Chinese emissions saw a small decline, while EU emissions remained largely unchanged from 2021.- Most of the increase in emissions was from oil. Coal saw a slight increase in emissions – somewhat smaller than might have been expected given the global energy crisis – while gas emissions remained flat and emissions from cement saw a slight decline- Global CO2 concentrations set a new record of 417.2 parts per million (ppm), up 2.5ppm from 2021 levels. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now 51% above pre-industrial levels.- The effects of climate change have reduced the CO2 uptake of the ocean sink by around 4% and the land sink by around 17%.
Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2022Carbon dioxide will continue to build up in the atmosphere in 2022 due to ongoing emissions from fossil fuel burning, land use change and cement production. This year's annual CO2 rise is predicted to be smaller than most recent years, due to a temporary increase in the removal of carbon from the atmosphere by tropical vegetation in response to weather conditions associated with the current La Niña event. If global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, the atmospheric CO2 rise will need to be kept to this rate on average over the 2020s through a rapid reduction in global emissions, and subsequently reduce to zero before mid-century. We forecast the annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to be 2.14 ± 0.52 parts per million (ppm) higher in 2022 than in 2021. As a result, we forecast the 2022 annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to be 418.3 ± 0.5 ppm (Figure 1).
