August Extent Loss Oscillation

[ChrisReynolds]

When I finished off blogging on sea ice back in 2016 I left a loose thread. In the years since, when I looked at my blog, it was always there, the last post at the top, nagging me.

But fighting the Sheldon Cooper in me, I left it at just 'one door-knock' as an exercise in asserting I had moved on.

So I posted in 2014 about an apparent 4 year cycle of large losses in extent for the combined area: Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, and Laptev to CAA (Laptev, Kara, Barents, Greenland, Central CAA).
http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-august-extent-loss-oscillation.html



Then I returned to it in 2016 but that was rather inconclusive, i.e. it wasn't there, no unusual large loss in 2016.
http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-august-extent-loss-oscillation-2016.html



So...

a) Can anyone point me to wherever you people are getting regional sea ice data from?
or
b) Has this been discussed and put to bed somewhere here since 2016?

2020 should have seen a large extent loss, if what I pointed out had any basis.

[ChrisReynolds]

I think the NSIDC area data I have found will do the job, so I'll post when I have had the chance to look at it.

[oren]

Interesting.
2020 had a huge extent loss in July following the persistent anti-cyclone (called the GAAC in these parts), and IIRC slowed down heavily in August in terms of extent loss.

[ChrisReynolds]

Thanks Oren,

I'll revisit this when I get the chance. Maybe I am being too limited in looking at August, and that's why 2016 was a dud. I will post again.

[NotaDenier]

I think the NSIDC area data I have found will do the job, so I'll post when I have had the chance to look at it.

Welcome back Chris! Wasn’t posting then but read all your stuff. Big fan.

[ChrisReynolds]

Thanks NotaDenier, very much appreciated.

[ChrisReynolds]

I have finally got round to looking at this extent loss cycle and in this data (NSIDC regional) it is far less marked. Anyway it definitely has not continued, what I've found is kind of obvious, in recent years the ice edge has been receding more early in the regions considered (OP) and this has led to a massive drop in August losses, simply because there's less ice to lose.

Anyway I have attached the key graphic and might try to dig deeper into the data at the weekend.

[ChrisReynolds]

Oh dear....

I've just downloaded all of the gridded PIOMAS heff (thickness) data to 2020.

Now I actually have a deputy at work I have time in the evenings.

Where will this lead? 

[interstitial]

If it leads to more interesting data that would be great

[NotaDenier]

Chris I thought your analysis of the future of the arctic sea ice was very interesting at the time. I think you called it the long transition. It was impressive because you had actual statistical analysis to back it up.

Wondering if you have seen anything in the last 6 years to change your mind?