The 2022 melting season

[KenB]

Scott Duncan has posted a temperature map for the Arctic using ERA data and there is no intense heat anomaly in March north of the CAA. The NCEP/NCAR record shows a very different picture. Will look for any news

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1511070851688542210

"there is no intense heat anomaly in March north of the CAA"

Sorry, but is this a typo?  The map you linked to seems to have a fairly intense anomaly almost everywhere above the Arctic Circle with only a few small regions at 0 anomaly.  Or perhaps we differ on what counts as 'intense?'

Indeed, no specific intense anomaly north of the CAA, but a general anomaly around all the Arctic (screenshot from Twitter).

Ahh, yes, I see your point - thanks.

[Paul]

Scott Duncan has posted a temperature map for the Arctic using ERA data and there is no intense heat anomaly in March north of the CAA. The NCEP/NCAR record shows a very different picture. Will look for any news

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1511070851688542210

"there is no intense heat anomaly in March north of the CAA"

Sorry, but is this a typo?  The map you linked to seems to have a fairly intense anomaly almost everywhere above the Arctic Circle with only a few small regions at 0 anomaly.  Or perhaps we differ on what counts as 'intense?'

Indeed, no specific intense anomaly north of the CAA, but a general anomaly around all the Arctic (screenshot from Twitter).

I wonder how much that deep red around svalbard(which is clearly only a high anaomly as we had open water at times during March in that area) is skewing the result? Apart from the noteworthy but fairly brief event of a  warm southerly at one point,  weather patterns have not been too much out of the ordinary.

One could even argue a warm March may not be a bad thing as it will bring extra snowcover for the ice to protect itself come the summer although I'm not 100% too convinced by that.

So whilst noteworthy, I don't think it willl have any impacts on what may or may not happen come the summer.

[The Walrus]

The sluggish start to the melting season may be partly due to the large tract of open water during March.  This results in significant heat loss, keeping the Arctic cool.  This is similar to 2011, which had a low sea ice throughout most of the winter months, and a low maximum.  Melt that year did not kick in significantly until id April.  2015 was similar also, with an early, low maximum.  Melt started at the end of March that year, but slowed appreciable during the second have of April.  Both years had similar minima. 

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

[jai mitchell]

should we open a new thread and place predictions on when the Nares Bridge collapse will happen?

[miki]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

God! It's already a mighty soup...

[HapHazard]

Is this high-ish extent due to low concentration/high mobility?

I miss A-Team, as an aside.

[oren]

The high extent is a result of north winds freezing the CAB-Barents gap and pushing the ice southward, plus a bit of growth in Bering.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Would it be expected then that this recent growth may be relatively transient since there will not be much time for the freeze-over to thicken, or do you think this slowdown may begin to have a long term effect on the progression of the melt season? I often have trouble identifying whether some of these early-spring events hold much sway come July-September, so I appreciate any input on that topic!

[interstitial]

Would it be expected then that this recent growth may be relatively transient since there will not be much time for the freeze-over to thicken, or do you think this slowdown may begin to have a long term effect on the progression of the melt season? I often have trouble identifying whether some of these early-spring events hold much sway come July-September, so I appreciate any input on that topic!

There is no correlation between extent maximum and extent minimum. This was shown statistically by another member somewhere on this forum. It follows that accurate predictions for the minimum are more complex than this. There are large flows of energy into and out of the arctic the cumulative effect of relatively small imbalances of energy are what determines the result.

It is a race a surge early on is interesting but the final result depends on overall performance.

The highest energy flowing into the arctic happens in June so by about mid July most of the race has been run and reliable predictions are made.

At least that is how I see it others may disagree.

[interstitial]

I should add. I do not think we have a good way of quantifying the impact of an event while it is occurring mostly we measure it by the results after the fact.

[nadir]

Would it be expected then that this recent growth may be relatively transient since there will not be much time for the freeze-over to thicken, or do you think this slowdown may begin to have a long term effect on the progression of the melt season? I often have trouble identifying whether some of these early-spring events hold much sway come July-September, so I appreciate any input on that topic!

About the leads and refrozen open water in Beaufort and Chukchi seas, if it had happened in February alone it would be not relevant, but this continued opening of leads and retreat of ice from the coast is being very persistent and will continue thru mid April. By the end of the month and during May a rapid thawing of the refrozen areas may ensue. This has happened a few times in recent years. But it also depends on how warm and sunny Spring becomes in the region.

[gerontocrat]

Is this high-ish extent due to low concentration/high mobility?

I miss A-Team, as an aside.

Concentration
The satellite sensor that provides NSIDC data (by 25 x 25 km pixels) is not showing a significant drop in sea ice concentration for the Arctic as a whole and for the 7 central seas of the High Arctic.
However in the peripheral seas concentration is below average.

Maybe the higher resolution sensors can pick this up.

Mobility - as mentioned elsewhere we have not as yet got routine reliable measurements of this.

ps: I miss A-team too.

click images to enlarge

[FredBear]

My impression is that early/earlier melt has been observed in recent years and this has been taken as a warning for the rest of the season. However, countering that has been increasing cloud/smoke around the peak of the  melt season   .   .   ?

[kassy]

It´s even more general. We had many years with strong or early starts that then stalled when summer was relatively clouded.

[gerontocrat]

There has been a lot of sea ice drift into the Greenland And Barents sea and the Atlantic front edge of the Central Arctic.

[Paul]

Would it be expected then that this recent growth may be relatively transient since there will not be much time for the freeze-over to thicken, or do you think this slowdown may begin to have a long term effect on the progression of the melt season? I often have trouble identifying whether some of these early-spring events hold much sway come July-September, so I appreciate any input on that topic!

About the leads and refrozen open water in Beaufort and Chukchi seas, if it had happened in February alone it would be not relevant, but this continued opening of leads and retreat of ice from the coast is being very persistent and will continue thru mid April. By the end of the month and during May a rapid thawing of the refrozen areas may ensue. This has happened a few times in recent years. But it also depends on how warm and sunny Spring becomes in the region.

Seems nothing overly unusual too me, Beaufort always develops leads and cracks in the ice due to the Gyre and whenever offshore winds develop, ice gets pulled away from the coasts with thin ice developing behind. Basically there is nothing from what I can see in the Beaufort that would suggest a rapid retreat there but weather will have a major say of course.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

After a predominant HPS that has spun the ice around in the basin for the last few weeks - giving us some descent Fram export - a change in the weather is coming. The extreme extent in the Bering sea will finally get hit by unfavorable winds and higher temperatures in the coming days.

It's also clearly visible now that the power of the sun is increasing, slowly warming up the more southern parts of the arctic during the day. But it still remains cold over the basin until a few days from now, when you can see some heat coming in from the ESS to the pole.

I've added the 30 day HYCOM where you can see that this won't be a season with ice left in the Kara sea. Winds are blowing the ice away from the coast there right now, so I expect open water in the Kara sea to come early this year.

In Siberia it remains cold, and big storms in the Barents sea are absent. This has caused extent to remain high in the Barents sea, helped by favorable winds from the north and the east for the past few weeks. One big storm could change that very quickly of course, but so far, none are in sight...

My conclusion is that this melting season is having a slow start, which is good for the ice...

[nadir]

Would it be expected then that this recent growth may be relatively transient since there will not be much time for the freeze-over to thicken, or do you think this slowdown may begin to have a long term effect on the progression of the melt season? I often have trouble identifying whether some of these early-spring events hold much sway come July-September, so I appreciate any input on that topic!

About the leads and refrozen open water in Beaufort and Chukchi seas, if it had happened in February alone it would be not relevant, but this continued opening of leads and retreat of ice from the coast is being very persistent and will continue thru mid April. By the end of the month and during May a rapid thawing of the refrozen areas may ensue. This has happened a few times in recent years. But it also depends on how warm and sunny Spring becomes in the region.

Seems nothing overly unusual too me, Beaufort always develops leads and cracks in the ice due to the Gyre and whenever offshore winds develop, ice gets pulled away from the coasts with thin ice developing behind. Basically there is nothing from what I can see in the Beaufort that would suggest a rapid retreat there but weather will have a major say of course.

Let’s give it another week. If the forecast realizes we should see much bigger leads and expanses, and actual open water by the last week of the month in Chukchi sea and Beaufort sea. Then we’ll see how May comes.

Attached gif with ECMWF forecast for next week, might need a click.

[nadir]

Rick Thoman tweets about Sea Ice Thickness over Bering and Chukchi seas:

https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1513237990365011968?s=21&t=nptjAVVqFW5l_XbyQaUAJg

While surprisingly thick ice remains over Bering sea, Chukchi sea shows a large extent of very low thickness, which was caused by recent sea ice drift away from the coast and will be further affected in the next days. Expect this area to be very vulnerable in May. Some weaknesses along Beaufort sea coast which may also grow, also expect great clockwise mobility of the Beaufort sea ice floes.

I must add that the level of ice fracturing and floe formation deep within the Beaufort sea, while not uncommon, had not been seen as widespread at this time of the year at least in the last four years. It reminds of 2015 and 2016, and in those two years Beaufort sea ice completely melted out (not completely in the last seasons).

Below I attach a gif with Modis 7-2-1 images of April 8th for the last four years. NEEDS A CLICK. And this month the forecast promises more action

[Paul]

Rick Thoman tweets about Sea Ice Thickness over Bering and Chukchi seas:

https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1513237990365011968?s=21&t=nptjAVVqFW5l_XbyQaUAJg

While surprisingly thick ice remains over Bering sea, Chukchi sea shows a large extent of very low thickness, which was caused by recent sea ice drift away from the coast and will be further affected in the next days. Expect this area to be very vulnerable in May. Some weaknesses along Beaufort sea coast which may also grow, also expect great clockwise mobility of the Beaufort sea ice floes.

Not sure I fully agree with that last assessment personally, winds in the next 3 to 5 days especially will be heading towards the Alaskan coastline rather than in a strong clockwise motion. High pressure is nearby so its always possible to move into a position which starts the Beaufort Gyre up but not in the short to medium term.

The area of low concentration in the Bering straight is interesting though and could become more interesting once the winds pick up which is forecast about 3 to 4 days away especially.

Weather patterns have now changed in the bering sea to much warmer conditions, I suspect we will soon see more higher ice declines in the coming days.

[nadir]

Rick Thoman tweets about Sea Ice Thickness over Bering and Chukchi seas:

https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1513237990365011968?s=21&t=nptjAVVqFW5l_XbyQaUAJg

While surprisingly thick ice remains over Bering sea, Chukchi sea shows a large extent of very low thickness, which was caused by recent sea ice drift away from the coast and will be further affected in the next days. Expect this area to be very vulnerable in May. Some weaknesses along Beaufort sea coast which may also grow, also expect great clockwise mobility of the Beaufort sea ice floes.

Not sure I fully agree with that last assessment personally, winds in the next 3 to 5 days especially will be heading towards the Alaskan coastline rather than in a strong clockwise motion. High pressure is nearby so its always possible to move into a position which starts the Beaufort Gyre up but not in the short to medium term.

The area of low concentration in the Bering straight is interesting though and could become more interesting once the winds pick up which is forecast about 3 to 4 days away especially.

Weather patterns have now changed in the bering sea to much warmer conditions, I suspect we will soon see more higher ice declines in the coming days.

Sure…

[Freegrass]

I presume that a lot of movement of the ice at this time of year will stack up the ice in lots of places, while leaving other places vulnerable to thin ice, and thus early melt and more open water in those places that can absorb a lot of heat? Wind is really starting to have a negative effect on the ice right now, as there isn't enough time left to fill up the holes with thick ice...

Is that a reasonable assessment?

[Diaminedave]

Just to say that volume of ice in the Bering is more liable to melt out there in the coming months rather than deplete the heat energy store of the Arctic basin.
That energy then presumably is available for converting other ice within the Arctic basin to liquid

[Aluminium]

April 1-10.

2021.

[The Walrus]

My impression is that early/earlier melt has been observed in recent years and this has been taken as a warning for the rest of the season. However, countering that has been increasing cloud/smoke around the peak of the  melt season   .   .   ?

There is very little correlation between the date of the maximum (start of the melt season) and the annual minimum.  The following chart shows the large scatter since the beginning of the millennium.  The red line is the date of maximum for 2022, tied with 2015 for the earliest.  However, I feel that it would be pure chance if 2022 finished near the minimum of 4.43 measured that year.

There is also little correlation between the date of maximum and year, as the average date of maximum is still around day 75.  Years 2001, 2009, and 2020 were tied for the next earliest date at day 66, but their respective minima were 6.603, 5.119, and 3.818.

<Note: I assume the data and chart are of NSIDC extent, this should be specified in both text and image or filename. O>

[nadir]

I presume that a lot of movement of the ice at this time of year will stack up the ice in lots of places, while leaving other places vulnerable to thin ice, and thus early melt and more open water in those places that can absorb a lot of heat? Wind is really starting to have a negative effect on the ice right now, as there isn't enough time left to fill up the holes with thick ice...

Is that a reasonable assessment?

Old ice from the Western CAB ends up in Beaufort sea (where most of it usually melts lately) but its true that also pretty thickened ice stacks up in ESS transported from Chukchi/Beaufort during the Winter and Spring. I guess that’s why the ESS tends to resist longer with more ice in summer (except 2019 and 2020 that had such record warm weather from the Asian side, clearly there’s no rule here).

[SimonF92]

Not really a fan of "I think this will happen" posts, but i was looking at the Nares on Sentinel and its in terrible shape.

Doesnt bode well for the season north of Greenland

[be cause]

The last month's weather does not bode well for any part of the Arctic . Beaufort gyre in full swing , @ 500,000sqkm has been exported from the basin to be replaced by thin ice , something which recent extent figures suggest is not resisting attack very well . Kara is devastated already and heat is getting closer .
  About all the protection there is this year is 1-200km of deeper snow  next Laptev and ESS and 1-200 km of thicker ice next the shore that is not on the move atm .
  Everything else is gyrating . Discussions @ heat required to melt all the ice do not recognize what export does . (most) Current weather forecasts suggest export could even accelerate .
  Nares may become floe-jammed as enough ice to fill Fram tries to squeeze into it's tiny passage . Butt wind and water may ensure export continues .
 

p.s.  ^^ written yesterday but forgot to post . Today's extent loss is big but a lot of ice in the Bering sea looked likely to disappear yesterday .. very thin and new .. a problem elsewhere too .

[Aluminium]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12^th, 2022:
     13,455,903 km², a century break drop of -158,501 km².

Nice day to lift off.

The forecast shows some warmth with exception of North America, so the melting season should progress at full speed. I don't think Baffin Bay will make difference.

[SimonF92]

Been hoping that someone from IceNet will run the model for 2022 but unfortunately they havent yet. One training epoch can take up to 1 day to compute so theres no way im even going to try to run it on my single 3070, even if its just trying the model on new data.

It can forecast up to 6-months

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Most of the action is in the Bering and Kara seas. The Barents sea is dealing with a few minor events, but nothing that'll cause big drops in the ice there I think...

The clockwise rotation of the ice does seem to be building up some thicker ice in the ESS. So unless something dramatic happens in the coming weeks, I think the ESS will take a while to melt out this season as you can see in the 30 day HYCOM I added.

[Freegrass]

HYCOM 2022 vs 2021
HYCOM 2022 vs 2020
HYCOM 2022 vs 2019

I've made the gifs this way this time, which makes it much easier to compare this year to other years. And when you compare this year with last, you can see that we have a lot of ice again in the basin. Last year we did have more ice in the Laptev Sea, and we had the thick MYI in the Beaufort sea - that later on moved into the Chukchi Sea. Two things we don't see this year. But overal we have a lot more ice - and with more I mean thicker in more places, volume - than in 2020 and 2019. The difference with those years is significant as you can see. I'll let you guys play the game "spot the difference". It's impressive...

[Paul]

The usual caveat of hycom on how accurate it is but basing on those gifs, there is very little difference between 2021 and 2022. The laptev again could open early if winds are persistent from the south and the Beaufort/Chukchi could be slower to melt especially if conditions remain cooler and cloudier but we shall see. Its been quite a few summers since we saw a warm Beaufort/cool laptev which ironically may make extent go down slower initially but the long term loss of more multi ice melting away.

[nadir]

The usual caveat of hycom on how accurate it is but basing on those gifs, there is very little difference between 2021 and 2022. The laptev again could open early if winds are persistent from the south and the Beaufort/Chukchi could be slower to melt especially if conditions remain cooler and cloudier but we shall see. Its been quite a few summers since we saw a warm Beaufort/cool laptev which ironically may make extent go down slower initially but the long term loss of more multi ice melting away.

Chukchi sea has a big area of recently refrozen ice that keeps growing in extent and that eventually will quickly melt out, in contrast to the slowness in melting of last year. Last year melting in Chukchi sea was exceptionally slow, compared to previous years.

However it’s true that the Beaufort sea doesn’t seem much affected by the current anticyclonic weather, ice is more shattered but winds are not pulling ice away form the Alaskan/Canadian coasts, and temperatures are really cold, the refrozen leads can get renewed ice with significant thickness before May.

[oren]

It appears the main difference between years, at least looking at Hycom, is the strength/persistence of the transpolar drift, which causes thinner ice in the Siberian seas and thicker ice piled up against the CAA.
Kara seems much thinner this year, this could make for early extent drops, though those could stall later when the thicker ice in the main pack refuses to melt away, weather-dependent of course

[johnm33]

Looking at ice export for the last month, top left is the eyeballed 'still' center of the ice. From https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif [10mb]

[binntho]

This must be one of the most boring starts to a melting season ever! And nothing that indicates any changes in the short term. Nullschool does have a couple of days of southerlies on the Atlantic front starting in a couple of days, but fleeting and transient and not likely to cause significant changes.

One thing did surprise me though, when looking at the whole arctic on EOSDIS the amount of cloud cover seems significant. Nullschool shows hardly any cloud water but still about half the arctic seems to be covered in an opaque cloud cover on any given day. Or is it just my imagination?

Click for animation:

[Freegrass]

This must be one of the most boring starts to a melting season ever! And nothing that indicates any changes in the short term. Nullschool does have a couple of days of southerlies on the Atlantic front starting in a couple of days, but fleeting and transient and not likely to cause significant changes.

One thing did surprise me though, when looking at the whole arctic on EOSDIS the amount of cloud cover seems significant. Nullschool shows hardly any cloud water but still about half the arctic seems to be covered in an opaque cloud cover on any given day. Or is it just my imagination?

Click for animation:

I think it's fog...
And you're right, the weather is boring...
Just look at it...

[Rodius]

This must be one of the most boring starts to a melting season ever! And nothing that indicates any changes in the short term. Nullschool does have a couple of days of southerlies on the Atlantic front starting in a couple of days, but fleeting and transient and not likely to cause significant changes.

One thing did surprise me though, when looking at the whole arctic on EOSDIS the amount of cloud cover seems significant. Nullschool shows hardly any cloud water but still about half the arctic seems to be covered in an opaque cloud cover on any given day. Or is it just my imagination?

Click for animation:

I think it's fog...
And you're right, the weather is boring...
Just look at it...

Nature is lulling us into a false sense of security.
What is the saying... the quiet before the storm?

[Aluminium]

April 8-17.

2021.

[be cause]

If this melting season thus far appears boring to you .. 2012 would have had you asleep .

[gerontocrat]

If this melting season thus far appears boring to you .. 2012 would have you asleep .

On this day in 2012 sea ice extent was close to the 1990's average.
There was no indication of the events to come.

[miki]

If this melting season thus far appears boring to you .. 2012 would have had you asleep .

Indeed.

[Paul]

Not too sure what people are expecting in all honesty, it's still only April, the basin melt season does not start till May at least.

There is a couple of hints that things may be different this year to last year. The bering straight on the Alaskan side is thinner due to ice pushing away from the coasts which may lead to early open water here although conversely more ice is being pushed further into the basin. Secondly the Kara sea ice is less compacted so a repeat of last year's stubborn ice here looks unlikely.

Also that DMI chart shows why I'm not keen on such a chart, you would think conditions are average across the basin yet in reality, large areas are above average, nothing too extreme but noteworthy nonetheless. If anything that red line could drop below average as a piece of PV is forecast to develop from the CAA and head towards the pole and then towards the Kara/Laptev seas although this is subject to change.

[be cause]

i WOULD EXPECT FOLK TO NOTICE THAT IN THE PAST 7 DAYS  .. oops .. ( by Gero's Jaxa extent figures ) ...
              2022 gained 358,000 sqkm on 2016 and 348,000 sqkm on 2012 !  In the race toward records , that's 70k a day ..
  We now find ourselves approx. 750K ahead of 2012 and 250k behind 2016 in our 3 horse race .

 

[oren]

If anyone is seeking proof that extent data in April is uncorrelated with extent data in September, there it is. The max is set in the unbounded peripheral seas (mainly Barents, Baffin, Bering and Okhotsk), while the min is set in the CAB with the help of Beaufort, CAA and the Greenland Sea. CAB thickness distribution is much more important at this stage, though harder to come by.

[El Cid]

If the HYCOM charts are any good, then we should see a very fast clearing of the Atlantic side and maybe even an attack on the Pole...of course all is dependent on weather but the Atlantic side looks notably weak on Freegrass' gifs

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC SEA ICE EXTENT - 5 day trailing average

Since early April the 7 seas of the High Arctic have been solidly at maximum extent.
i.e. all sea ice extent loss has been in the 7 peripheral seas.

click images to enlarge

[Glen Koehler]

     That Feb. 2012 dip in central Arctic Exent really stands out.  Does not seem to have caused a great increase in the Extent of the peripheral seas.  And a month later it was "restored".  After the devastation of September 2012 I can only guess that CAB ice was unusually mobile and so crossed the boundary between central and peripheral zones but didn't really go anywhere.  And so was still around as a base for the 2013 rebound.  Or (I like this theory better), that ice added to Extent but was super-thin and blinked out temporarily, then in the depth of winter quickly came back.  Thus those pixels of Extent were composed of water-ice right at the transition temperature.