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uniquorn

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #450 on: June 14, 2022, 03:22:26 PM »
Yesterday was quite red
https://go.nasa.gov/3MQucJa

NeilT

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #451 on: June 14, 2022, 06:06:11 PM »
It would have broken the record low without the cyclone for sure

Better to go back and read the commentry from Neven at the time.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #452 on: June 14, 2022, 06:36:06 PM »
The Lena delta vs the Laptev sea. 250m per pixel.

Paul

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #453 on: June 14, 2022, 08:35:19 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

I'm seeing a lot of LP systems blocking out the sun again one week from peak insolation, while temperature in the 80th northern parallel is still below average.

Yep the CAB looks chilly although as always in these situations, the deeper any low pressure system get, the more potential damage to the ice they can cause with dispersion albeit In the short to medium term, the lows don't look all that strong.

Perhaps as we head into the medium term a dipole set up may occur but more runs are needed before that is confirmed.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #454 on: June 15, 2022, 02:53:33 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

I'm seeing a lot of LP systems blocking out the sun again one week from peak insolation, while temperature in the 80th northern parallel is still below average.

Yep the CAB looks chilly although as always in these situations, the deeper any low pressure system get, the more potential damage to the ice they can cause with dispersion albeit In the short to medium term, the lows don't look all that strong.

Perhaps as we head into the medium term a dipole set up may occur but more runs are needed before that is confirmed.
Yep, these LP systems are too weak to do any damage, and too cold to bring in any heat. All they do is bring clouds that block out the sun...

I'm starting to think that those constant northerlies during winter through the Bering strait - that gave us big extent in the Bering sea last winter - in combination with La Niña, is giving us cold lows out of the Pacific instead of warm ones as you can see in my latest 850hPa GIF, but Mercator ocean temperature anomalies map disagree with me...

I can keep saying this is a freak of nature, but 2 years in a row? In combination with La Niña 2 years in a row? I'm dreading the day we get a strong El Niño...
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #455 on: June 15, 2022, 03:45:30 AM »
Arctic for June has been quite high pressure dominated so far.  While enough low pressure has been around to cause some dispersion. 

It will be particularly interesting to see what happens with the Beaufort region with some dispersion happening due to recent weak low pressure systems.  Forecasts suggest a fair bit of heat to take advantage of this dispersion.  Perhaps the ice will be compacted again by the forecast pattern, but if we see further alternating dispersion then heating then this will resemble 2012 in what I think was the biggest factor for that year's result.

ESS has also seen some pretty strong heat.  Laptev retreat while a bit weaker than the last two years is still quite strong compared to earlier years.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #456 on: June 15, 2022, 06:10:29 AM »
I just had a look at the Jetstream, it has been making a pretty straight and far away circle around the arctic on the Pacific side in the past few weeks. I guess you would have called this a normal Jetstream in the old days?

(clicks the single or double arrows in the control panel to go back and forward in time)
https://classic.nullschool.net/#2022/06/11/0300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-45.05,89.62,662
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #457 on: June 15, 2022, 09:26:31 AM »
June 10-14.

2021.

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #458 on: June 15, 2022, 10:52:29 AM »
looks like the dance of destructive little depressions is developing into a deadly dipole over coming days . Even the 'too weak to do any damage' low is doing damage ( clearly visible in Al's post ^^) . The pot does not need any stirring but it certainly will be getting plenty in the next 10 days .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. it's 2022 !

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uniquorn

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #459 on: June 15, 2022, 12:01:40 PM »
<>
It will be particularly interesting to see what happens with the Beaufort region with some dispersion happening due to recent weak low pressure systems.  Forecasts suggest a fair bit of heat to take advantage of this dispersion.  Perhaps the ice will be compacted again by the forecast pattern, but if we see further alternating dispersion then heating then this will resemble 2012 in what I think was the biggest factor for that year's result.
<>

High contrast terra modis of Beaufort from yesterday to show floe size and distribution.
https://go.nasa.gov/3xtZGPP

Paul

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #460 on: June 15, 2022, 01:11:03 PM »
Arctic for June has been quite high pressure dominated so far.  While enough low pressure has been around to cause some dispersion. 

It will be particularly interesting to see what happens with the Beaufort region with some dispersion happening due to recent weak low pressure systems.  Forecasts suggest a fair bit of heat to take advantage of this dispersion.  Perhaps the ice will be compacted again by the forecast pattern, but if we see further alternating dispersion then heating then this will resemble 2012 in what I think was the biggest factor for that year's result.

ESS has also seen some pretty strong heat.  Laptev retreat while a bit weaker than the last two years is still quite strong compared to earlier years.

Indeed some warmth blowing off the land in the next few days for the Beaufort sea, will be interesting how much movement we will get via the gyre. Would say though the warmth is nothing too exceptional though, at least in the short term but after perhaps a brief respite, the second surge could be more stronge.

Would say the forecasts in the medium term are getting to the stage where it could turn out to be a testing time for the ice with a dipole setting up. Infact high pressure over the Beaufort and a deep low over near the ESS proved to be a bad set up in 2012 as the low really dispersed the ice(as proven later on in the melt season) and the high pressure really warmed the SSTS up. At least we are no where near those levels in the Beaufort this year but things can quickly change.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #461 on: June 16, 2022, 02:25:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Finally a serious melt event coming in over the Chukchi Sea, but overall it's still pretty cold over the basin as my GIF and the 80th northern parallel graphic shows...

30 day HYCOM added, which is showing a spectacular loss of ice in the Laptev sector. But keep in mind that this looks more spectacular than it really is. It's just a big color change in the colorbar.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #462 on: June 16, 2022, 04:54:18 PM »
In the next few days we are coming to a nexus point for the last 12 years where most of the years converge with 2012 and then either follow it, drop below it or fall away from it.

As you can see 2022 is not that far away from the lowest of the last 12 years as it crosses 2012.  Other years had already diverged significantly by this time.  2008/9 2013/14 all crossed the 2012 line earlier.

Where it goes in the next 3 weeks will be illuminating.  However, as seen in 2020, a late stall is always on the cards.

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #463 on: June 16, 2022, 06:40:00 PM »
Quote
30 day HYCOM added, which is showing a spectacular loss of ice in the Laptev sector.
More "spectacular" to me is the transition of 1.5 meter thick ice to 1.25 meter thick ice in the "upper left" (north of the East Siberian Sea) quadrant within 3 weeks.  (And I know, it's a model...)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #464 on: June 16, 2022, 07:05:42 PM »
Quote
30 day HYCOM added, which is showing a spectacular loss of ice in the Laptev sector.
More "spectacular" to me is the transition of 1.5 meter thick ice to 1.25 meter thick ice in the "upper left" (north of the East Siberian Sea) quadrant within 3 weeks.  (And I know, it's a model...)
And always remember that dispersion also causes the numbers to drop.

I wonder how much of the loss in the Laptev sector is caused by bottom melt due to atlantification.

30 day HYCOM salinity added.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2022, 07:11:47 PM by Freegrass »
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NeilT

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #465 on: June 16, 2022, 09:44:44 PM »
Landfast ice starting to melt at Barrow now.  It wasn't when I looked last week.

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #466 on: June 17, 2022, 12:27:09 AM »
Looking increasingly likely from the 20th the Arctic is going to get some testing conditions via high pressure in the Beaufort and a deep low in the Laptev. It's the deep low that is catching my eye mostly and where the most concern could be. It may not make much impact on extent but it will be interesting how the ice responds to it especially after the sunny spell we saw in both the Laptev and the ESS, could potentially see some interesting dispersion developing.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #467 on: June 17, 2022, 11:34:49 AM »
June 12-16.

2021.

be cause

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #468 on: June 17, 2022, 01:14:41 PM »
a deep low has been in forecasts for some time , but now gfs has one below 980 within 4 days , so increasingly likely to become reality . It's effects will be felt by weak 1st year ice . I know highs are great ice melters , but this low looks like a great destroyer . The dipole it causes is not exactly ideal either , encouraging a race for the exits .
  4 days out : https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=90&code=0&mode=0&carte=1
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. it's 2022 !

  don't panic  ..   life's not organic !

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #469 on: June 17, 2022, 01:34:13 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

Yes, it looks like JAC is back... This could do some serious damage...
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #470 on: June 17, 2022, 05:40:18 PM »
Looking increasingly likely from the 20th the Arctic is going to get some testing conditions via high pressure in the Beaufort and a deep low in the Laptev. It's the deep low that is catching my eye mostly and where the most concern could be. It may not make much impact on extent but it will be interesting how the ice responds to it especially after the sunny spell we saw in both the Laptev and the ESS, could potentially see some interesting dispersion developing.

A deep low over the Laptev should push ice to the Barents or through the Fram which may briefly slow extent losses but ultimately mean a lot of melt.

Paul

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #471 on: June 17, 2022, 07:27:58 PM »
Looking increasingly likely from the 20th the Arctic is going to get some testing conditions via high pressure in the Beaufort and a deep low in the Laptev. It's the deep low that is catching my eye mostly and where the most concern could be. It may not make much impact on extent but it will be interesting how the ice responds to it especially after the sunny spell we saw in both the Laptev and the ESS, could potentially see some interesting dispersion developing.

A deep low over the Laptev should push ice to the Barents or through the Fram which may briefly slow extent losses but ultimately mean a lot of melt.

On this occasion it seems the flow will be more towards the Laptev sea rather than the Atlantic so complete contrast to the weather conditions to this time last year when we had the record breaking warmth from Siberia yet ironically longer term, the colder set up may be more harmful to the ice due to dispersion and ice spreading into open water(although the cavet to that is SSTS may struggle to rise with cold air around).

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #472 on: June 17, 2022, 09:48:18 PM »
a deep low has been in forecasts for some time , but now gfs has one below 980 within 4 days , so increasingly likely to become reality .

However the ECMWF 12Z doesn't agree.

Yet!

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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #473 on: June 18, 2022, 06:04:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 17th, 2022:
     10,098,954 km2, a century break drop of -119,665 km2.

It has been a "not abrupt" but steady decline that has been above average. In the end, the difference with the lowest is only 228K km2. Not much! I am not claiming that 2022 is going to be the lowest in the near future, but is gone the huge gap we had against the leader.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paul

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #474 on: June 18, 2022, 09:36:47 AM »
I dont have the figures but I suspect alot of the extent lost has occurred in Hudson Bay where the weather has been significantly above average.

Whilst that area have little meaning when it comes to September, it's more evidence of our warming climate and with the basin set to have challenging weather in about 48 hours then things could get interesting on the extent front like they did last year for a time.

be cause

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #475 on: June 18, 2022, 10:02:56 AM »
the daily regional figures are the biggest loss for me this season . I wish gerontocrat would bring them back .
 Thanks , Juan for highlighting the figures here .. they are no surprise but certainly not where you would want them to be as the assault on Arctic Central begins in earnest . gfs has the low deepening again and the long range is a pattern of 'rinse and repeat' with more lows and dipoles .
 


2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. it's 2022 !

  don't panic  ..   life's not organic !

oren

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #476 on: June 18, 2022, 10:23:04 AM »
Gero still publishes selected regional NSIDC charts from time to time. However we lost the highly useful online regional AMSR charts published by Wipneus. We do have regional AMSR numbers from AWI, published regularly by uniquorn in the AWI thread, but these don't include comparison to previous years as that data is not yet available for most dates.

oren

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #477 on: June 18, 2022, 10:31:06 AM »
An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

oren

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #478 on: June 18, 2022, 10:32:51 AM »
No export in the last two days, though some movement elsewhere, mainly CAB towards the CAA.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #479 on: June 18, 2022, 11:36:01 AM »
Laptev fast ice is breaking up...

https://go.nasa.gov/3mWrMyi
« Last Edit: June 18, 2022, 11:57:39 AM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #480 on: June 18, 2022, 11:39:09 AM »
I was looking earlier at the mess @ the pole , unfortunately WV has refreshed with cloud cover in the new images but the AMSR gif above shows the developing damage . The ice drift map shows ice dispersing from @ the pole in several directions .
  not just Hudson losing ice .. Chukchi , Greenland , Kara and Laptev seas all contributing plenty to the run of centuries .
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. it's 2022 !

  don't panic  ..   life's not organic !

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #481 on: June 18, 2022, 02:47:08 PM »
I was looking earlier at the mess @ the pole , unfortunately WV has refreshed with cloud cover in the new images but the AMSR gif above shows the developing damage . The ice drift map shows ice dispersing from @ the pole in several directions .
  not just Hudson losing ice .. Chukchi , Greenland , Kara and Laptev seas all contributing plenty to the run of centuries .
 

Barents ice has disappeared in that animation.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #482 on: June 18, 2022, 03:11:54 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Cold air is entering the center of the storm, cutting it off from its food, which is warm moist air. So it looks like it won't be as bad as it could have been. But still early days. Things could still change and get a lot worse...
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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #483 on: June 18, 2022, 03:29:25 PM »
ECMWF is predicting a massive ridge over entire Alaska in a week, coupling with that low, and bringing a lot of heat over the Pacific side. The predictions still vary a lot from run to run. As a minimum expect a couple of heat blows over Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS, but it could potentially become a strong heat wave.   


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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #484 on: June 18, 2022, 03:38:12 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Cold air is entering the center of the storm, cutting it off from its food, which is warm moist air. So it looks like it won't be as bad as it could have been. But still early days. Things could still change and get a lot worse...

The ECMWF does not have the low go as deep(although it has on previous runs) and I would usually back that but the fact the UKMO is also backing the GFS makes me think a deep 980MB low will happen. Of course it all depends how the warm and cold air will interact but whichever way you look at it, a ridge over the Beaufort and low pressure over the Laptev leads to a set up which is a dipole.

And then the ridge could become even stronger which will mean the air will get warmer still. As be_cause points out, we are seeing some weak dispersion around the pole all ready so will be interesting how the ice in the Laptev will look after being under stormy weather for 3 days potentially.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #485 on: June 18, 2022, 06:03:46 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Cold air is entering the center of the storm, cutting it off from its food, which is warm moist air. So it looks like it won't be as bad as it could have been. But still early days. Things could still change and get a lot worse...

The ECMWF does not have the low go as deep(although it has on previous runs) and I would usually back that but the fact the UKMO is also backing the GFS makes me think a deep 980MB low will happen. Of course it all depends how the warm and cold air will interact but whichever way you look at it, a ridge over the Beaufort and low pressure over the Laptev leads to a set up which is a dipole.

And then the ridge could become even stronger which will mean the air will get warmer still. As be_cause points out, we are seeing some weak dispersion around the pole all ready so will be interesting how the ice in the Laptev will look after being under stormy weather for 3 days potentially.
Yes, we're gonna have to watch those butterflies in the coming days, to see how they flap their wings... Just a little change can have a big effect on that storm. If it can keep feeding on that hot moist air, it'll be a memorable event. If the cold air keeps getting in the way, it'll still be a significant event, but not as destructive as it could have been...

One thing is already for sure though, hot air will come in with speed over the Chukchi sea, and that's gonna leave a mark for sure...

It'll also be the last time I have to post this... Surely we'll cross over into more normal temperatures now...
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #486 on: June 18, 2022, 06:08:57 PM »
Export through the Fram strait has been minimal for the past fortnight, but the Nares strait has had vigorous flow out of the Lincoln sea. Thick ice that might have built up on the coast of Greenland will have been flushed out of the Arctic through the Fram and Nares straits over the past 2 months.

Heat has built up in the far north Pacific and a pattern of strong warm advection may build up in the Beaufort sea, obliterating the ice there. There are amazing forecast heat anomalies on Alaska's north slope in the ECMWF runs. We'll see if they verify. What's clear is that the lows are pulling heat off of the continents, not keeping the Arctic ocean cool.

Meanwhile, the fresh water is draining from the dome that built up under where the Beaufort high used to be. It has drained out through the Nares, the Fram and the "garlic press" and has entered the Labrador sea. There was good overturning of the AMOC in midwinter with the deep Labrador sea lows, but cold fresh water has now poured into the upper layers. That may slow the northward transport of warm salty Gulf stream water over the coming months.

This melt season will be interesting no matter what the final outcome.

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #487 on: June 18, 2022, 10:11:38 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 17th, 2022:
     10,098,954 km2, a century break drop of -119,665 km2.

It has been a "not abrupt" but steady decline that has been above average. In the end, the difference with the lowest is only 228K km2. Not much! I am not claiming that 2022 is going to be the lowest in the near future, but is gone the huge gap we had against the leader.
I attach a dusty old graph updated to show daily sea ice change during the melting season for the years 2012, 2020, 2021, 2022 and the 10 year average (JAXA extent data). I have used the 7 day trailing average to more clearly show trends during the year. Even so, the graph still displays short-term large ups and downs in daily change during the season.

2022- the graph shows that unil the end of May, daily sea ice losses were mostly below average, For June so far daily sea ice losses are well above average.

2021 - Apart from a few short periods of above average sea ice loss, daily sea ice losses were around or below the average for the entire melting season.

2020 - There were 4 distinct periods of well above average sea ice losses - in late March, mid-May, most of July (the big one), and mid to late August. By far the biggest was in July, which ended with a dramatic return to well below average sea ice losses by the beginning of August

2012 - There were 3 significant periods of above average sea ice loss - from the last week in April to the first week in May, dramatically above daily sea ice loss in mid-June, and a period of mostly well above average sea ice losses from late July to end August, with peak losses in early August. Those 3 events were enough to cause the record low minimum -still a record by far.
Just think what sort of mimimum above average daily sea ice losses for the whole melting season could produce.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Paul

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #488 on: June 18, 2022, 11:52:19 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Cold air is entering the center of the storm, cutting it off from its food, which is warm moist air. So it looks like it won't be as bad as it could have been. But still early days. Things could still change and get a lot worse...

The ECMWF does not have the low go as deep(although it has on previous runs) and I would usually back that but the fact the UKMO is also backing the GFS makes me think a deep 980MB low will happen. Of course it all depends how the warm and cold air will interact but whichever way you look at it, a ridge over the Beaufort and low pressure over the Laptev leads to a set up which is a dipole.

And then the ridge could become even stronger which will mean the air will get warmer still. As be_cause points out, we are seeing some weak dispersion around the pole all ready so will be interesting how the ice in the Laptev will look after being under stormy weather for 3 days potentially.
Yes, we're gonna have to watch those butterflies in the coming days, to see how they flap their wings... Just a little change can have a big effect on that storm. If it can keep feeding on that hot moist air, it'll be a memorable event. If the cold air keeps getting in the way, it'll still be a significant event, but not as destructive as it could have been...

One thing is already for sure though, hot air will come in with speed over the Chukchi sea, and that's gonna leave a mark for sure...

It'll also be the last time I have to post this... Surely we'll cross over into more normal temperatures now...

Well obviously as soon as I say a 980MB low seem all but certain, the 12Z GFS/UKMO runs now siding with the ECM with a less deep depression. Nevertheless it will be persistent in more or less the same area so it will still be interesting how the ice reacts to it.

I don't think the air coming in the Chukchi I would describe as hot, above average yes but it is summer, there is always going to be spells where higher upper air temperatures will occur. The alarm bells start to ring more if a high thickness ridge starts to appear as that would bring 'hot air' (for Arctic standards) in and my term for hot air is when uppers are above plus 10C. The first blast of warmth is a more tepid 5C uppers on average although 2M temps would suggest some melt ponding might still occur.

Brigantine

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #489 on: June 19, 2022, 03:04:13 AM »
One thing is already for sure though, hot air will come in with speed over the Chukchi sea, and that's gonna leave a mark for sure...

It'll also be the last time I have to post this... [DMI 80⁰N air temps] Surely we'll cross over into more normal temperatures now...

The Chukchi and 80⁰N are two different places though?


On a separate note, are we even doing a Northwest Passage poll this year? (No way Jose?)




There was good overturning of the AMOC in midwinter

Citation needed. That's not what I remember seeing in ARGO profiles / Mercator Ocean. At least not compared to the previous season.
(or do you mean this change has happened over several years, not specifically since mid-*last*-winter?)
« Last Edit: June 19, 2022, 03:28:10 AM by Brigantine »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #490 on: June 19, 2022, 06:17:35 AM »
June 14-18.

2021.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #491 on: June 19, 2022, 03:34:07 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

JAC won't have the destructive winds that were in the forecast before, but then he finds new food again and gets a second life. So it ain't over yet!

The injection of warm air does help to heat up the entire basin, and so we can now finally say that summer has arrived...

Noteworthy event is the heat injection coming in over the CAA as well. This seems to help heat up the Greenland - Svalbard corner.

All in all, not a good week for the ice ahead...

On the other hand, a lot of clouds during peak insolation again...
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

nadir

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #492 on: June 19, 2022, 04:16:23 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

JAC won't have the destructive winds that were in the forecast before, but then he finds new food again and gets a second life. So it ain't over yet!

The injection of warm air does help to heat up the entire basin, and so we can now finally say that summer has arrived...

Noteworthy event is the heat injection coming in over the CAA as well. This seems to help heat up the Greenland - Svalbard corner.

All in all, not a good week for the ice ahead...

On the other hand, a lot of clouds during peak insolation again...

I wonder what would be the probability of strong rains from that warm front that the storm seems to sweep over the ESS and Chukchi a couple of times in the next days. Even thunderstorms. Not being alarmist, just curious of the phenomena this setup entails.

GFS sure predicts significant areas of rain first over Laptev/ESS, then over Chukchi. Thunderstorms possible??

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts
« Last Edit: June 19, 2022, 04:22:26 PM by nadir »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #493 on: June 19, 2022, 04:42:59 PM »
Are we even doing a Northwest Passage poll this year? (No way Jose?)

Since you ask, here you go:

"When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2022?"

I will not be selecting your suggested option!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #494 on: June 19, 2022, 04:49:40 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

Good question Nadir. Here's the precipitation forecast, and I also added the 850hPa forecast.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

nadir

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #495 on: June 19, 2022, 06:00:30 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

Good question Nadir. Here's the precipitation forecast, and I also added the 850hPa forecast.
The first front of rain is clearly warm and the rain will be warm given the temps above at 850hPa.
The second front is interesting too. Everything seems to get reactivated inland over Siberia.

The instability is being fueled by Siberian warm humid air colliding with the cold Arctic air in CAB/Laptev. The Ridge at the Pacific Ocean intruding into Alaska seems to force the storm to stay closer to the Siberian coast instead of allowing it to drift into the CAB. The average Arctic mid-size storm dancing in the CAB is rather dull but this one close to the coast seems more energetic with well-defined fronts that will actually be pulling warmth from the continent.

Or something like that. Interesting setup.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #496 on: June 20, 2022, 06:39:01 PM »
Ice is breaking up in the Laptev and ESS, heat is coming in, and not a single post about the Arctic Sea Ice in this thread in the last 24h.

Is this still the ASIF?
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #497 on: June 20, 2022, 07:06:31 PM »
Is this still the ASIF?
Like other forums, ASIF has its own titles for users depending on their post count. We are very frozen now.

However, this forecast is interesting.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #498 on: June 21, 2022, 12:40:28 AM »
I see a lot of downsloping flow off the North Slope for the next week plus. Already reflecting in temps along the Arctic Coast. That and the higher-than-normal winds and PWAT from this Pacific airmass next week will put significant pressure on the Beaufort, CAA and perhaps the CAB.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #499 on: June 21, 2022, 09:20:04 AM »
June 16-20.

2021.