Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2022 melting season  (Read 249645 times)

Shared Humanity

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 471
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #600 on: July 03, 2022, 03:19:23 PM »
You do not often see on a day a 178k sea ice area loss compared with a 77k sea ice extent loss.
A sympton of increased ice mobility in a rubbled central arctic ice "pack"?



I think you are correct. The CAB used to consist of massive, rhomboid shaped rafts of thick MYI that would barely budge in high winds unless the winds persisted for days. Today it's like stiring a mixed drink.

I'm not sure that is the case, no matter how thick the ice is, the ice always move with winds and currents although clearly with thinner ice, the affects of strong winds on the ice is more pronounced than it used to be.

Extent has slowed down for now but with area going down more rapidly now, I suspect extent will follow especially with the constant warm conditions and preconditioning over the a Beaufort.

Its fair to say this melt season will be different to last year in terms of ice distribution but it will be interesting if that will mean an lower extent than last year or not.

Rapidly decreasing area with slow decreases in SIE are evidence this persistent low is dispersing a rubble strewn, highly mobile CAB. As for how the season ends, highly dispersed arctic ice does make it more vulnerable to weather that is favorable to melt, mainly cloudless, high insolation weather. This is an interesting melt season so far.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5842
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 804
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #601 on: July 03, 2022, 04:04:15 PM »
I know it is important because Steve the weird graph producer (forget his last name but I'm sure Jim remembers)

I assume you're referring to Tony Heller (AKA "Steve Goddard")?

Getting back to 2022 Arctic temperatures, the NSIDC reference 925 hPa in their monthly Arctic Sea Ice News, rather than 2 m. I expect the next edition to include something like this:
"The evil that is in the world always comes from ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding." Albert Camus, The Plague

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 324
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #602 on: July 03, 2022, 04:15:29 PM »
It was Jim, yes.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #603 on: July 03, 2022, 05:59:53 PM »
I know it is important because Steve the weird graph producer (forget his last name but I'm sure Jim remembers)

I assume you're referring to Tony Heller (AKA "Steve Goddard")?


Yes, another reason for his exile from WUWT was his claim that CO2 could condense in the Antarctic due to his misinterpretation of phase diagrams and adamant refusal to be corrected (even ultimately by Anthony).  Anthony thought that my referring to Goddard's post as 'scientific illiteracy' was insulting.

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 324
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #604 on: July 03, 2022, 07:54:51 PM »
To avoid clogging the thread too much I have an apology from the moderator of wuwt for some of the comments to one of my posts.

But back to the snow.  I was wondering if the levels of snow and direct evaporation could be a factor in holding temps lower??
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 799
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #605 on: July 03, 2022, 08:25:49 PM »
I'm sure the simple fact it is snowing (and lying) is not helping either . the continuous snow of recent days will only increase after the new low deepens and joins forces with the resident . Lots of rain further out in the circulation but north of 80' looks like staying cold , even as the ice continues to disperse .
all bets are off !  it's 2023 !

  but don't panic 'cause life's not organic !

Icegod

  • NewMembers
  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #606 on: July 03, 2022, 08:29:17 PM »
To avoid clogging the thread too much I have an apology from the moderator of wuwt for some of the comments to one of my posts.

But back to the snow.  I was wondering if the levels of snow and direct evaporation could be a factor in holding temps lower??

In short yes this is happening, in fact it happens every year it's why the DMI average barely creeps above freezing and for a very short time. I like the theory that because of the craziness of the jet stream due to the solar minimum extra water vapor was transported to the Arctic keeping temperatures warmer in winter. There's still too much ice and snow for it to get much above freezing above 80N.

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1031
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 139
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #607 on: July 03, 2022, 10:37:56 PM »
The low will start with a substantial plume of warm air.  Attached is 850hp EC for 36 hrs and 60 hrs from now approx.  Location for temperature is approx location of peak wind speed on the warm side with surface winds at 24 and 27 knots respectively.  After this warm start cold air the circles around most of the low for another few days.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1186
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #608 on: July 03, 2022, 11:20:56 PM »
The low will start with a substantial plume of warm air.  Attached is 850hp EC for 36 hrs and 60 hrs from now approx.  Location for temperature is approx location of peak wind speed on the warm side with surface winds at 24 and 27 knots respectively.  After this warm start cold air the circles around most of the low for another few days.

That warm incoming low is going to dump some rain before it merges with the colder low. EMCWF accumulated precipitation for the next four days shows up to 50 mm and more, over Laptev ESS and CAB, precisely at the warm side where the 850 hPa are well above zero.

The chart is very unclear in showing the coast lines, I placed a red oval where this precipitation will occur.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 799
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #609 on: July 04, 2022, 12:11:04 AM »
Meanwhile the Beaufort / CAA heatwave is looking as persistent as it is intense .  Both gfs and ECM have it continue beyond the end of their runs , with upper anomalies similar to those that proved 'unbelievable' last year a little further south . The CAA was expected to be one of the last bastions of the ice , yet could be demolished in a fortnight . Along with the Beaufort .
« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 02:51:02 AM by be cause »
all bets are off !  it's 2023 !

  but don't panic 'cause life's not organic !

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #610 on: July 04, 2022, 12:45:04 AM »
Meanwhile the Beaufort / CAB heatwave is looking as persistent as it is intense .  Both gfs and ECM have it continue beyond the end of their runs , with upper anomalies similar to those that proved 'unbelievable' last year a little further south . The CAB was expected to be the last bastion of the ice yet could be demolished in a fortnight . Along with the Beaufort . I'm sure the world's leaders are deeply concerned .

I guess the only saving grace I can see in the Beaufort is there is not alot of open water there so widespread warm SSTS is not yet occuring, with the winds forecast not to be too strong either, there is not much to move the ice around either.

Whilst the wildfire situation over Alaska is awful, it would be interesting too see if the smoke actually weakens the sun's affect on the ice and potentially limit the warming of any open water there.

Compared to a month ago, the situation shows things can quickly change in the Arctic. For the sake of the multi year ice there, I do hope the ice can survive in the Beaufort but September looks miles away at the moment given the current situation.

The deep low over the basin that is forecast to occur is going to be interesting given the ice is already dispersed in parts and we got the potential of a major CAA heatwave also, plenty to ponder in the next week or so.

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 92
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #611 on: July 04, 2022, 08:33:37 AM »
I can't recall who usually posts them, but does anyone have a somewhat current ASI concentration graph comparing this year to previous years? I am curious whether we are seeing a widespread drop in that metric due to potential dispersion from the lows.

I wonder if that would add an additional dimension to interpreting these consistently low extent declines.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1851
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 753
  • Likes Given: 214
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #612 on: July 04, 2022, 08:47:56 AM »
Re Glen Koehler et al, "DMI temps in summer trending downwards", the explanation seems obvious to me: The Arctic is experiencing ever more turbulent weather during melt season, with increased vertical mixing, pushing the 2m temperature down towards the melting point of the underlying ice.

Intuitively one would expect the air above the ice to be layered, with a static cold layer closest to the ice and a faster moving (but still fairly slow) warmer layer some meters above. As the average wind speeds increase, this layering gets broken up and more heat is able to reach the surface of the ice, leading to a cooling of the air column above.

Remember that heat transfer betweeen air and ice is mostly through direct contact, so the more turbulence the more heat gets exchanged.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1186
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #613 on: July 04, 2022, 11:26:23 AM »
I can't recall who usually posts them, but does anyone have a somewhat current ASI concentration graph comparing this year to previous years? I am curious whether we are seeing a widespread drop in that metric due to potential dispersion from the lows.

I wonder if that would add an additional dimension to interpreting these consistently low extent declines.
You can see it here:
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0701

Though the Bremen maps changed to AMSR-2 based concentration from a different satellite product sometime after 2013, so they are not entirely comparable for all the years.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 11:38:48 AM by nadir »

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 324
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #614 on: July 04, 2022, 12:36:23 PM »
You can see it here:
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0701

Though the Bremen maps changed to AMSR-2 based concentration from a different satellite product sometime after 2013, so they are not entirely comparable for all the years.

July 2012.  The AMSR-e satellite became stuck and unusable.  They were transitioning to AMSR2 anyway but had to do it in a hurry.

Unfortunately Cryosphere Today public data no longer exists I (that I know of) and it was a fantastic source for historical concentration right back to 79.

Still a lot of automatically updated data on the sea ice graphs page though.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1372
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #615 on: July 04, 2022, 12:43:30 PM »
Idk what you folk thinks but following is worth to think about:

1) this year won't render any new record. Period.

2) the only thing this year might do is to be a so called "prepper year". In order to have a new record low it is highly likely necessary that the CAA melts out to a large degree. The current blowtorch over the ice there might mest out the ice or at least severly damage it. That would leave it much more vulnerable by next year and to some degree replaced by first year ice.

3) The odds for an opening of the NW Passage seems to be higher this year than recent years. Of course, it depends for how long the heat wave will last in CAA.

4) The same might be true for the ice just west of CAA.


Another thing that has been on tape is what will happen to the ice after next bigger El Niño. Given that we have had two La Niñas now and a third one might follow this winter the odds for a bigger El Niño in 23/24, or latest 24/25 are fairly low or even very low.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8892
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3335
  • Likes Given: 3450
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #616 on: July 04, 2022, 01:52:54 PM »
Idk what you folk thinks but following is worth to think about:

1) this year won't render any new record. Period.

2) the only thing this year might do is to be a so called "prepper year". In order to have a new record low it is highly likely necessary that the CAA melts out to a large degree. The current blowtorch over the ice there might mest out the ice or at least severly damage it. That would leave it much more vulnerable by next year and to some degree replaced by first year ice.

3) The odds for an opening of the NW Passage seems to be higher this year than recent years. Of course, it depends for how long the heat wave will last in CAA.

4) The same might be true for the ice just west of CAA.


Another thing that has been on tape is what will happen to the ice after next bigger El Niño. Given that we have had two La Niñas now and a third one might follow this winter the odds for a bigger El Niño in 23/24, or latest 24/25 are fairly low or even very low.
I can't answer all the questions, but the idea of a "prepper" year is certainly a valid one. The latest sea ice age map (from a month ago) shows a lot of the MYI is vulnerable to the coming heatwave, due to higher survival rates in the Beaufort in 2020 and 2021. In addition, the CAA held out rather well in this period. Should the wave prove a lethal one, a lot of thicker ice will be missing next year.
In addition, a lot of MYI located just north of the CAA could be flushed south through the "garlic press" as has been mentioned upthread, assuming the MYI survives the heatwave but the CAA channels do clear.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 799
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #617 on: July 04, 2022, 03:17:35 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3NP3aCQ .. today's worldview showing the state of ice before the deepening storm stirs things up yet again . Rinse and repeat forecast again a week out .
  And over in CAA/Beaufort the temperatures are rising . Yet LMV could well be right and no records will be threatened this season . It was certainly the case in 2013 when the ice last looked this bad after a couple of PAC's (persistent Arctic cyclones) at this stage of the season . 

  p.s. re PAC's .. Neven covered the topic in July 2013 in his ASIblog .. worth a visit .
« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 04:28:02 PM by be cause »
all bets are off !  it's 2023 !

  but don't panic 'cause life's not organic !

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #618 on: July 04, 2022, 05:22:10 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3NP3aCQ .. today's worldview showing the state of ice before the deepening storm stirs things up yet again . Rinse and repeat forecast again a week out .
  And over in CAA/Beaufort the temperatures are rising . Yet LMV could well be right and no records will be threatened this season . It was certainly the case in 2013 when the ice last looked this bad after a couple of PAC's (persistent Arctic cyclones) at this stage of the season . 

  p.s. re PAC's .. Neven covered the topic in July 2013 in his ASIblog .. worth a visit .

The diffused nature of the ice could go one or two ways I feel, either it will look like 2013 where despite the hugely diffused nature of the ice, open water never really made inroads apart from on the Atlantic side or it could be like 2016 where open water was making inroads through the weak diffused ice.

Even if the extent numbers don't show it, then things could look interesting by the end of August. I don't think the ice is as diffused as it was in 2013 and its not as diffused at lower latidues like it was in 2012 and 2016 but with more deep lows forecasts then there is some concern for sure.

The warmth over the Beaufort is interesting but things don't look windy and pressure is forecast to fall slightly, the reason why the air at 850hpa still remains so high is because of the lack of winds but if the lower level winds don't come off Alaska then even though it could be plus 15C at upper heights, the affects on the ice might not be as severe as one might imagine.

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 324
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #619 on: July 04, 2022, 05:38:11 PM »
2006 certainly cleared a lot of the NWP out for the "shocker" 2007 melt.



2011 was a whole different order of magnitude though, ushering in 2012.



Post 2012, significant melt has become more the norm than prior to 2007.  So it will be, as ever, a waiting game to see how it goes.  But we do have to remember there was a significant volcanic eruption this year and that has a fairly profound effect on global weather patterns.

Trying to map 2022 to prior years may not be a good fit.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1372
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #620 on: July 04, 2022, 11:23:16 PM »
As an addition to the NW Passage, I see that the fast ice south of Devon Island got crunched last two days yielding a large number of floes south  of the island. Parry channel will have a rouge week ahead, just like the rest of CAA.

Happy Independence Day!

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1031
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 139
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #621 on: July 05, 2022, 01:06:49 AM »
I wouldn't yet rule out a record, but we are certainly behind I think.  One issue is that while we have exciting weather in the Beaufort and Laptev sectors, the weather in ESS and Chukchi sectors is more moderate.  These are the sectors with the largest variation between high and low melt seasons in my opinion.  Chukchi is interesting as it has had some significant warmth mostly from warm winds between Beaufort ridging and Laptev cyclone.  There is both good dispersion and strong surface melt in this area and I think we will see significant ice loss in this region in the short term.

I suspect there is good chance that the weak areas of ice in Chukchi and Laptev/ESS region can link up to cut off an area of ice in ESS region similar to 2012, but not as close to the pole. 

The best possibility of a record in my opinion is if the weak area on the Atlantic side can melt out completely with open water almost to the pole.  Hard to do, and it looks like we are behind 2013 on a same date comparison.  At the same time we would need to continue strong melt on the Pacific side.  A reverse dipole with a big heatwave might be able to clear out the ice after the damage of the storm forecast for the next week or so, probably needing some substantial bottom melt from ekman pumping and weakening of the halocline layer.  But a reverse dipole could put the breaks on Pacific side melting.

A pattern with a high like 2020 and storm activity over the Barents might do it with compaction and heat over Pacific side and strong southerly wind over the Laptev sector.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5842
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 804
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #622 on: July 05, 2022, 10:47:44 AM »
I see that the fast ice south of Devon Island got crunched last two days

Indeed. Via the Northwest Passage thread:

"The evil that is in the world always comes from ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding." Albert Camus, The Plague

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15914
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4787
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #623 on: July 05, 2022, 12:08:26 PM »
There seems to be a vulnerability in the Central Arctic sea ice from the Laptev bite to a large area North of 85.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able ask the Russians if they have a spare icebreaker (or two) to go and have a look-see?

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Aluminium

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1427
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1097
  • Likes Given: 680
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #624 on: July 05, 2022, 12:25:45 PM »
June 30 - July 4.

2021.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5842
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 804
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #625 on: July 05, 2022, 03:13:58 PM »
There seems to be a vulnerability in the Central Arctic sea ice from the Laptev bite to a large area North of 85.

Quite so. 86N to 90N:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2022/#Jul-05
"The evil that is in the world always comes from ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding." Albert Camus, The Plague

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 799
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #626 on: July 05, 2022, 04:06:28 PM »
one fact @ the arctic this year is the collapse in size of floes . In the weak quarter highlighted above I can see (via worldview) one big floe (@ 40 km) and a couple @ 20 km with few others much more than 5 km . In 2013 there were thousands of floes bigger than 99% of this year's motley crew .
 A consequence is less damage as larger floes tear through the pack when winds change direction and speed , so less open water is apparent helping make the pack look more coherent . Reality may be worse .

  and the CAA  7 day forecast .. https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1544327956813623297/photo/1  .. anomalies as bad at ground level as above ..

 


« Last Edit: July 05, 2022, 06:32:22 PM by be cause »
all bets are off !  it's 2023 !

  but don't panic 'cause life's not organic !

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 603
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 228
  • Likes Given: 4470
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #627 on: July 05, 2022, 10:43:17 PM »
There seems to be a vulnerability in the Central Arctic sea ice from the Laptev bite to a large area North of 85.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able ask the Russians if they have a spare icebreaker (or two) to go and have a look-see?

Uniquorn & myself have been watching that low concentration area for a while now*, it's been an interesting & persistent feature. I wonder what it could tell us.

* since mid-June, in the AWI AMSR2 and Arctic Ocean Salinity... threads, mostly

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #628 on: July 05, 2022, 11:31:15 PM »
I do wonder what causes that area of diffused ice though to the "right" of the pole inside the 85 degree circle? As you said it started to develop around mid June despite no real strong cyclones at the time. Is it just weak ice or another underlying cause? I say that because we seen the same area developing at various stages during 2010, 13, 16 and 2017 in particular.

According to PIOMAS at the start of the melt season, the pole area on average is just below average thickness whereas ice towards the ESS is just above average thickness which may reflect why that ice despite the storms don't seem anywhere near as diffused despite deep low pressure systems recently.

It will be interesting how it plays out, if the ice edge from the Atlantic side or the Laptev reaches the diffused area, we may see open water reaching inside 85 degree north like it did in 2013 and 2016. The deep low that is happening now and will remain for the next few days probably won't help that area and it will be interesting what the ice looks like once the clouds clear.

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #629 on: July 06, 2022, 02:19:36 AM »
EPS and GEFS weather models (for 10 and 15 days out, low reliability) show the cold returning to the western arctic. The CAA is forecast to continue to have above normal atmospheric temps, however northern portions are forecast to cool down in the medium to long range.

For peripheral sea potential laggards, the ESS may be the one to watch this year.

EPS:







GEFS:







High latitudes of the arctic are well below average.



The physics make sense, however I am interested if anyone has found a correlation with areas of open water at high latitudes VS. DMI 80th northern parallel surface temps on The University of Bremen AMSR2 during various points of the northern hemisphere sea ice melting season.

<You cannot post 10-15 day forecasts without adequate caveats. O>
« Last Edit: July 06, 2022, 07:18:37 AM by oren »

FishOutofWater

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 307
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #630 on: July 06, 2022, 04:37:37 AM »
Geez, Dude, 850 is well over 1000m above the surface. When there is lift or low geopotential heights aloft (a low aloft) the 850 anomaly is likely to be cold even if the surface temperatures are average.

For what it's worth I've looked at the ECMWF surface temperature anomalies which are forecast to be warm over the next 5 days but I also doubt them. Likewise I doubt the GFS forecast anomalies which tend to run warm.

Thinner ice and broken up ice might tend to lower the midsummer temperatures near the pole because salt water mixed with ice is colder than freshwater ice (which multi year ice used to be), but I don't trust the DMI graph either. I think that there are problems with the data near the pole.

No records will be set this year. It's too cloudy and it started out cold. But it's still a bad summer for ice. There's an enormous amount of water vapor and heat being advected from both the north Pacific and north Atlantic. Ultimately, this advected heat and water vapor will bring on a blue ocean Arctic but not this year.

I think that everyone is missing the big story of what's going on that will affect next summer and NH weather over the next several years, but it's a little early to be certain that it is happening.


weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #631 on: July 06, 2022, 05:26:25 AM »
Geez, Dude, 850 is well over 1000m above the surface. When there is lift or low geopotential heights aloft (a low aloft) the 850 anomaly is likely to be cold even if the surface temperatures are average.

For what it's worth I've looked at the ECMWF surface temperature anomalies which are forecast to be warm over the next 5 days but I also doubt them. Likewise I doubt the GFS forecast anomalies which tend to run warm.

Thinner ice and broken up ice might tend to lower the midsummer temperatures near the pole because salt water mixed with ice is colder than freshwater ice (which multi year ice used to be), but I don't trust the DMI graph either. I think that there are problems with the data near the pole.

No records will be set this year. It's too cloudy and it started out cold. But it's still a bad summer for ice. There's an enormous amount of water vapor and heat being advected from both the north Pacific and north Atlantic. Ultimately, this advected heat and water vapor will bring on a blue ocean Arctic but not this year.

I think that everyone is missing the big story of what's going on that will affect next summer and NH weather over the next several years, but it's a little early to be certain that it is happening.

FOOW, if you checked the EPS 2M mean temps, you would see the 5-day averages has the Western Arctic, Alaska, and Eastern Siberia up to the coast below average (1981-2010 climatology). You should realize under areas of cyclonic weather it can precipitate. This brings colder air down to the surface. Areas of cyclone also block solar insolation, which is the main driving factor of sea ice melt at least until we get into August.

15-day forecast (highly unreliable).



 

You can clearly see anomalously cold temps over the Central Arctic and Northern Greenland during today's 12z ECMWF initialization compared with 1981 - 2010 climatology. I do not recall a recent year with a significant area of subfreezing surface temps over the Central Arctic / Siberian side in July.



I was looking for a statistical analysis or model with respect to time and areas of open water.

Many here are calling this a prepper year. To the contrary, I see this as a year where volume and ice protection increases.
.
<15-day forecast requires caveat. And don't change other poster nanes. O>
« Last Edit: July 06, 2022, 07:22:24 AM by oren »

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 824
  • Likes Given: 210
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #632 on: July 06, 2022, 08:19:14 AM »

I think that everyone is missing the big story of what's going on that will affect next summer and NH weather over the next several years, but it's a little early to be certain that it is happening.

What's the big story?

SimonF92

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 585
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 208
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #633 on: July 06, 2022, 11:14:17 AM »

Thinner ice and broken up ice might tend to lower the midsummer temperatures near the pole because salt water mixed with ice is colder than freshwater ice (which multi year ice used to be), but I don't trust the DMI graph either. I think that there are problems with the data near the pole.


I can see the rationale there, but does the data really reflect that?

Also, could you elaborate why you think the data is bugged near the pole?
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

The Walrus

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 408
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #634 on: July 06, 2022, 06:30:16 PM »
I wouldn't yet rule out a record, but we are certainly behind I think.  One issue is that while we have exciting weather in the Beaufort and Laptev sectors, the weather in ESS and Chukchi sectors is more moderate.  These are the sectors with the largest variation between high and low melt seasons in my opinion.  Chukchi is interesting as it has had some significant warmth mostly from warm winds between Beaufort ridging and Laptev cyclone.  There is both good dispersion and strong surface melt in this area and I think we will see significant ice loss in this region in the short term.

Yes, 2022 is behind and has been most of the year.  By behind, I mean that the extent of the Arctic sea ice is higher than the 10-year average.  Here are the NSIDC values for today since 2005 (all previous years were above 10 million km2):

Year    km2    Rank

2005   9.816   17
2006   9.436   12
2007   9.286   10
2008   9.812   16
2009   9.836   18
2010   8.956     3
2011   9.100     8
2012   8.893     2
2013   9.441   13
2014   9.143     9
2015   9.731   15
2016   9.018     5
2017   9.071     7
2018   9.575   14
2019   9.037     6
2020   8.960     4
2021   8.867     1
2022   9.372   11

Average  9.293 M km2



nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1186
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #635 on: July 06, 2022, 11:07:36 PM »
I wouldn't yet rule out a record, but we are certainly behind I think.  One issue is that while we have exciting weather in the Beaufort and Laptev sectors, the weather in ESS and Chukchi sectors is more moderate.  These are the sectors with the largest variation between high and low melt seasons in my opinion.  Chukchi is interesting as it has had some significant warmth mostly from warm winds between Beaufort ridging and Laptev cyclone.  There is both good dispersion and strong surface melt in this area and I think we will see significant ice loss in this region in the short term.

Yes, 2022 is behind and has been most of the year.  By behind, I mean that the extent of the Arctic sea ice is higher than the 10-year average.  Here are the NSIDC values for today since 2005 (all previous years were above 10 million km2):

Year    km2    Rank

2005   9.816   17
2006   9.436   12
2007   9.286   10
2008   9.812   16
2009   9.836   18
2010   8.956     3
2011   9.100     8
2012   8.893     2
2013   9.441   13
2014   9.143     9
2015   9.731   15
2016   9.018     5
2017   9.071     7
2018   9.575   14
2019   9.037     6
2020   8.960     4
2021   8.867     1
2022   9.372   11

Average  9.293 M km2

I was going to respond with the typical quibble about area being more relevant than extent for these dates etc etc but Gerontocrat’s graph of area of the high Arctic seas shows that it’s even stalling a bit right now. The Beaufort sea, with its significant amount of MYI, is resisting the heat wave, and the low has a clear cooling effect over CAB, Laptev, and part of ESS. When a cyclone is that persistent, that’s what happens I guess. Plus, the cyclone-caused ice dispersion makes extent decrease slowly. Dispersion is no friend of ice if the weather changes but…

The lastest ECMWF 12Z does not see much displacement of the persistent cyclone, just gradual cooling almost everywhere  (except for the CAA where it will be torrid).

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 799
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #636 on: July 06, 2022, 11:21:24 PM »
An average week ?   
 
         https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

 21 days retro + 7 forecast . The impact of the low(s) and Beaufort heat look dramatic . This is no average year .
all bets are off !  it's 2023 !

  but don't panic 'cause life's not organic !

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8892
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3335
  • Likes Given: 3450
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #637 on: July 06, 2022, 11:34:06 PM »
Every year in the Arctic is unique. However, for now the common general metrics are rather average. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Walrus

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 408
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #638 on: July 07, 2022, 12:20:50 AM »
Every year in the Arctic is unique. However, for now the common general metrics are rather average. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Wow.  You could be a financial advisor.  But yes, nothing is occurring in the Arctic to excite one’s bones.

Shared Humanity

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 471
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #639 on: July 07, 2022, 12:30:12 AM »
Plus it is average as compared to the last twenty years which is decidely not normal.

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #640 on: July 07, 2022, 12:54:38 AM »

Quote
The Beaufort sea, with its significant amount of MYI, is resisting the heat wave

The thing we got to remember, whilst there is a heatwave going on over land and at upper heights, if the temperatures are pegged back over the ice because the winds are coming in off the ice(as today's ice movement in that area may seem to suggest) then the affects on the ice could be way less than one might imagine looking at the set up on paper.

The GFS 2M temperatures do seem to suggest however slightly warmer temperatures even over the ice in a few days time as the heat over land gets even more intense and perhaps we get the flow coming in off the land more before perhaps cooler temperatures over both lower and upper heights return to the Beaufort.

The CAA may be less fortunate though as the ice will be surrounding by Islands recording near if not record breaking temperatures. Not expecting the ice to melt quickly but it will be a real test for it that is for sure.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1851
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 753
  • Likes Given: 214
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #641 on: July 07, 2022, 07:55:14 AM »
The thing we got to remember, whilst there is a heatwave going on over land and at upper heights, if the temperatures are pegged back over the ice because the winds are coming in off the ice(as today's ice movement in that area may seem to suggest) then the affects on the ice could be way less than one might imagine looking at the set up on paper.

Well it's easy to check the wind direction on Nullschool and it certainly looks as is the hot air from the heat wave is being sucked right in over the ice all the way into the center of the cyclone. The (experimental) gif below is from 0500Z today. The wind speeds are not all that impressive (10-15 m/s), a stiff breeze but not much more than that. But the temps are everywhere above freezing, and the fall in temperatures as the hot air is sucked in over the ice surely indicates rapid melt.

Satellite from yesterday shows significant areas of blue ice between the clouds in the same area, indicating surface melt.

Warning: The GIF is over20 MB!
« Last Edit: July 07, 2022, 08:01:01 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Aluminium

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1427
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1097
  • Likes Given: 680
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #642 on: July 07, 2022, 07:57:28 AM »
July 2-6.

2021.

FishOutofWater

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 307
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #643 on: July 08, 2022, 03:22:15 AM »
I think that measurements and reanalyses over the Arctic ocean are based on sparse data at inconsistent locations. As has been discussed earlier the reanalysis data fields have been questioned by experts. I don't question the large warming trends across the Arctic but the very small distinctions in summer temperatures over the central Arctic ocean in summertime are another matter entirely.

Warm air advection is going to be intense over the edges of the ice pack over the next week. Lows outside of the Arctic are going to feed warm humid air into the lows over the Arctic ocean.

This web site has an excellent forecast package for the Arctic ocean.
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/

Click to activate the forecast loop.

SimonF92

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 585
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 208
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #644 on: July 08, 2022, 09:14:01 AM »
I think that measurements and reanalyses over the Arctic ocean are based on sparse data at inconsistent locations. As has been discussed earlier the reanalysis data fields have been questioned by experts. I don't question the large warming trends across the Arctic but the very small distinctions in summer temperatures over the central Arctic ocean in summertime are another matter entirely.

Warm air advection is going to be intense over the edges of the ice pack over the next week. Lows outside of the Arctic are going to feed warm humid air into the lows over the Arctic ocean.

This web site has an excellent forecast package for the Arctic ocean.
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/

Click to activate the forecast loop.

Thanks for the response, I agree, hard to interpret sparse data and I have been burned using imputation many times at work
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4824
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2025
  • Likes Given: 380
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #645 on: July 08, 2022, 12:50:53 PM »
There seems to be a vulnerability in the Central Arctic sea ice from the Laptev bite to a large area North of 85.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able ask the Russians if they have a spare icebreaker (or two) to go and have a look-see?

Uniquorn & myself have been watching that low concentration area for a while now*, it's been an interesting & persistent feature. I wonder what it could tell us.

* since mid-June, in the AWI AMSR2 and Arctic Ocean Salinity... threads, mostly

Enough open water for 0.48m wave height (modelled). Short period though.
Beaufort is maybe more interesting.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-40.72,89.21,2261/loc=98.559,85.899

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 799
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #646 on: July 08, 2022, 04:54:24 PM »
one thing seems certain .. another 2 weeks + of cyclonic weather dominating the basin . More dispersion ,  disintegration and export of the pack leading to ever bigger patches of open water near the pole and elsewhere .  The largest 'lake' in the ice is the one highlighted by uniq above .. it's @ 30x15 km in the midst of 300x300 km rubble and open water .
 Also more snow toward the centre of the low and more peripheral rain . No lack of weather to excite this year b but very few seem interested .. eg Walrus ''nothing is occurring in the Arctic to excite one’s bones.'' .
 
p.s. I must admit to missing Freegrass .. I hope he returns soon though his departure seemed to be final .
 
« Last Edit: July 08, 2022, 06:25:34 PM by be cause »
all bets are off !  it's 2023 !

  but don't panic 'cause life's not organic !

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #647 on: July 08, 2022, 07:41:27 PM »
Also more snow toward the centre of the low and more peripheral rain . No lack of weather to excite this year b but very few seem interested .. eg Walrus ''nothing is occurring in the Arctic to excite one’s bones.'' .
 
p.s. I must admit to missing Freegrass .. I hope he returns soon though his departure seemed to be final .
 

Yep the weather patterns are jnterering in respect of the amount of deep lows and the persistence of them. The dispersion to the 'right' of the pole does seem to suggest too me PIOMAS may of been right of that area having slightly below average ice thickness although as I mentioned in another post, is there another hidden reason why ice seem to get dispersed around that area like it did in 2010, 13, 16 and 17.

I think the lack of posts is more down to because extent/area wise the numbers are unremarkable reletively speaking but if any of the ice edge from the Atlantic side especially reaches the dispersed ice then things could look interesting as they did in 2013 with the large amount of open water inside 85 degree north(probably the year where I would class it was the closest we seen the ice edge reach the pole).

So whilst I very much doubt we will see record lows, you can never know what's to come. The weather looks a little more ice friendly with the CAB low weakening and some cooler air at upper heights will try and head towards the Beaufort but the dispersion is the major player in this melt season, just what will the ice pack look like by the end of August?

phelan

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 145
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #648 on: July 08, 2022, 08:29:10 PM »
Zack Labe is still watching the ice, had some interesing charts he posted here...

https://nitter.net/ZLabe/status/1545017115349905409#m

Quote
Ridiculous warmth is expected to continue for at least the next few days over northwestern Canada and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago - check out those those projected high temperatures!





----------

https://nitter.net/ZLabe/status/1545092466734514176#m

Quote
Again, looking ahead, most of the western Canadian Arctic is projected to have temperature anomalies around 10°C above average over the next week: (karstenhaustein.com/climate). This will impact sea ice in parts of the Northwest Passage.


Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1031
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 139
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2022 melting season
« Reply #649 on: July 08, 2022, 11:07:16 PM »
A look at the state of ice just near the strong low pressure system, and 2013 and 2012 for comparison (not exactly the same location to find the gaps in the clouds but quite close).  Size of floes is more comparable with 2012 and much smaller than 2013, although in 2012 the surface is much duller suggesting significantly more surface melt.

In 2016 (not shown) this area was still a solid sheet with cracks but areas further towards the Pacific side were broken up into even smaller floes.

A good amount of ice in Chukchi region looks primed to melt out soon, but not as much as in some other years.  Forecasts have a weaker low in this region, but it is still enough to pick up wind speed and is also forecast to be quite mild with minimal cooling effect.  I expect it will have a negative impact on the vulnerable ice in this region.  Overall the forecast looks a bit more favorable with low pressure dominance continuing, but not as strong.  Of interest is high pressure ridging on the Russian side, but it looks unlikely to be particularly strong or warm, although the occasional model run has popped up a stronger heat dome on this side towards the end of the forecast period.  The ice that has been broken up in Laptev sector does look like being exposed to increased sunshine, milder air and some wind, so decent if not spectacular melt weather to take advantage of the damage done by the low pressure system in this region.  A lot will depend on exactly how much bottom melt has been accelerated by warmer water stirred up from below.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.