The 2022 melting season

[be cause]

  Oren : 'If anyone is seeking proof that extent data in April is uncorrelated with extent data in September, there it is. The max is set in the unbounded peripheral seas (mainly Barents, Baffin, Bering and Okhotsk), while the min is set in the CAB with the help of Beaufort, CAA and the Greenland Sea. CAB thickness distribution is much more important at this stage, though harder to come by.'

  yet this is the week that starts to set 2012 & 16 apart . They both begin a parallel and relatively steep and constant decline that continues over the next 5 weeks , losing 500k more than an average year . If 2022 is to be a record breaker it almost certainly needs do the same . b.c.

p.s. with the rapid loss of Bering sea ice nearing completion this will be a challenge .

[Paul]

Bering sea ice has melted quite rapidly which is not too surprising considering how thin the ice looked in March although I guess in another way it is a bit surprising it was looking so thin as conditions have not exactly been above average during the winter.


Looks like the bering stright could see a quick melt also given how thin the ice looks there also but as we seen in 2018, a fast start in these regions does not necessary mean the basin ice could be in for a fast start also.

Weather is looking interesting also with below average conditions across the pole potentially and pretty slack but more above average conditions across the Pacific side. Be interesting too see how the Eursian snow cover responds to more troughing weather as snow cover retreat has yet again been quite rapid but the weather in theory should see a slow down there?

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

A few little storms on the ice, with a beautiful dipole at the end.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data -Sea Ice Area Graphs (5 day trailing average)

The 2 graphs attched show how that in Mid-March once could dream of an early above average and sustained 2022 melting season. But now - sea ice area in the High Arctic is at an extreme high, while in the Peripheral Seas melt continues but at a leisurely pace.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data -PERIPHERAL SEAS - Sea Ice Area Graphs (5 day trailing average)

Okhotsk - the only sea to show consistently low sea ice area in 2022.
Bering Sea - melt currently rapd with sea ice area well below the 2010's average.

Greenland Sea - After a significant drop in mid-March currently above the 2010's average
Barents Sea - Also fter a significant drop in mid-March currently above the 2010's average

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data -PERIPHERAL SEAS - Sea Ice Area Graphs (5 day trailing average)

Hudson Bay - sea ice area hovering around the 2010's average.
Baffin Bay - Above the 2010's average since early February. A big contrast to the low sea ice in 2021.

St Lawrence Sea - mostly well below the 2010's average this year despite the current up tick in sea ice area.

click images to enlarge

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

[be cause]

From Uniquorn on AMSR2 page :

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3652.0;attach=338285;image

[Jim Hunt]

Here’s the last “near real time” AWI CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map for Spring 2022, together with the associated volume graph:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2022/#Apr-23

The 2022 maximum volume based on NRT data is 19719 km³ on April 5th. Expect that to be revised upwards when the reanalysed data is ultimately published.

[Jim Hunt]

Bering Sea - melt currently rapid with sea ice area well below the 2010's average.

There's also been a bit of a "blip" in the Chukchi Sea extent.

Perhaps the sun is now high enough in the sky for the most recent “down” to stick around for the summer?

[Shared Humanity]

oren - please post the animation occasionally through the melt season. It says so much about the state of the ice.

[oren]

Following a suggestion by uniquorn I've been posting it every weekend, and planning to continue.

[Glen Koehler]

<snip>An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI).

<snip>Here’s the last “near real time” AWI CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map for Spring 2022
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2022/#Apr-23

      The animation and image posts by Oren and Jim Hunt show active export through the Nares Strait, and relatively thin ice in its Lincoln Sea catchment area.  Data shown in Babb et al. 2022 (https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10509833.1) demonstrate a recent increase in Nares export [text below is not quotes, just my interpretation]:
     * Annual ice export via the Nares Strait more than doubled from 33K to 87K km2 across 21 years (1996-2002 vs 2019-2021)
    * The portion of total Arctic MYI ice loss due to Nares Strait export more than doubled from 2.6% to 5.4% over the past 21 years (1996-2002 vs 2019-2021)       

     At 5.4% of the total, the Nares Strait MYI ice loss is still dwarfed by the Fram and Beaufort Sea losses.  But watching the flow through the Nares in Oren's animation reminds me of the slow leak in my car's front left tire.  It doesn't cause a flat overnight, but if I ignore it too long the cumulative effect is significant. 

     The importance of Nares Strait export losses is amplified by the fact that they involve some of the oldest, thickest, and most resilient ASI getting flushed down the drain.  In addition, those losses come from the officially recognized "Last Ice Area".  Yet another red flag about Arctic transformation.

     In Oren's animation a lead quickly unrolls like a cracking whip from left to right across the top of the CAA.  It shows that even across hundreds or thousands of km the Arctic ice pack has coordinated responses, i.e. everything is connected.

[Paul]

As anticipated a large PV has set up over the pole which is resulting in temperatures being around 3 to 6 degrees below average. Looking through the DMI temperatures the only year I seen to have temperatures this low at this time of year is 1964.

In typical Arctic fashion though the also anticipated dipole is going to flush all that cold air towards the Barants sea and the temperatures shooting right up as a result(unlike in 1964). The DMI chart at the moment also shows why it should not be used to reflect temperatures everywhere in the basin as the Pacific side is above average at the moment but won't be reflected in the DMI figures.

[El Cid]

Isn't the coming big storm in the Kara/Barents going to stir up the already seemingly thin ice there fastening its demise?

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

I haven't done just the wind for a while, but did it now to show more clearly what's going on on the Atlantic side in the coming days. And more specifically in the Kara sea - which is the problem child so far this season. If you look at the gorgeous AMSR2 animation Oren will be posting every week now, you can see a lot of ice exiting the Kara sea, and it doesn't seem to get any better in the coming days. So I'm expecting a very early ice free Kara this year.

Most of that ice is getting blown into the Barents sea, together with a lot of ice from the CAB.

The question I'm struggling with is if all that ice from CAB going there is a good thing, or a bad thing. On one hand you have the big extent in the Barents sea, that's still getting cooled down by cold wind coming from the north. So I presume it'll take some time to melt all that ice there, which is good, because it keeps the ocean covered so the sun can't heat up the water there.

On the other hand you have ice exiting the basin, into warmer Atlantic water, that'll eventually still melt all that ice rather quickly, which leaves the basin with less ice.

Last year the opposite happened, southerlies blew all the ice into the basin, which made me help to come to the conclusion that we would have a high minimum. Right now I'm starting to think that a lot of ice has exited the basin, which will give us less ice to melt.

But that conflicts with the huge extent and the thick ice that was created during winter. So Basically I have no idea what's gonna happen this year... 

Two things are for sure; the Kara sea is gonna have early open water, and 4.25 as the minimum has been in my head for a long time now... Let's see how close I get this year...

Added 30 day HYCOM

[oren]

Thanks for the gifs and the analysis. Just don't get carried away with the seasonal speculation.

[Aluminium]

April 15-24.

2021.

[nadir]

Classic dipole for the next week or so

[CraigsIsland]

It's been awhile (5 years maybe) since I've seen the multi-year ice thickness plot.

that's.....bad. I'm not sure if it's worse than I expected, but yeah. Summer or two, ice-free is in play. Yet, we talk about buying social media networks.

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

I haven't done just the wind for a while, but did it now to show more clearly what's going on on the Atlantic side in the coming days. And more specifically in the Kara sea - which is the problem child so far this season. If you look at the gorgeous AMSR2 animation Oren will be posting every week now, you can see a lot of ice exiting the Kara sea, and it doesn't seem to get any better in the coming days. So I'm expecting a very early ice free Kara this year.

Most of that ice is getting blown into the Barents sea, together with a lot of ice from the CAB.

The question I'm struggling with is if all that ice from CAB going there is a good thing, or a bad thing. On one hand you have the big extent in the Barents sea, that's still getting cooled down by cold wind coming from the north. So I presume it'll take some time to melt all that ice there, which is good, because it keeps the ocean covered so the sun can't heat up the water there.

On the other hand you have ice exiting the basin, into warmer Atlantic water, that'll eventually still melt all that ice rather quickly, which leaves the basin with less ice.

Last year the opposite happened, southerlies blew all the ice into the basin, which made me help to come to the conclusion that we would have a high minimum. Right now I'm starting to think that a lot of ice has exited the basin, which will give us less ice to melt.

But that conflicts with the huge extent and the thick ice that was created during winter. So Basically I have no idea what's gonna happen this year... 

Two things are for sure; the Kara sea is gonna have early open water, and 4.25 as the minimum has been in my head for a long time now... Let's see how close I get this year...

Added 30 day HYCOM

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 24h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

A transformational week is upon us. Out with the cold, in with the heat. The first temperatures above zero will shortly be seen along the coasts of the Laptev Sea, the ESS/Chukchi Sea, and the Beaufort sea. The Laptev will also briefly experience a strong southern wind, which will probably create the first open water there.

The Kara sea will continue to get pummeled, so it doesn't look good there for the ice this season.

I also expect Fram export to increase a notch or two with this dipole pushing the ice towards the exit. Curious to see what'll happen to the ice in the Barents sea. I expect a lot of it will be blown into warmer waters...

All in all, not a good week for the ice. The melting season has really taken off now...

[oren]

Interestingly, high temps at Pevek have exceeded 0C three times in the past week.

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=25051

Explanations for the chart: The current minimum, average, maximum air temperatures are represented on the graph by solid lines in blue, green and red, respectively. Normal values ​​are shown as thin lines. The record maximum and minimum temperature for each day are indicated by bold red and blue dots.

[gerontocrat]

Warmth will certainly invade parts of the Arctic from time to time over the next week or two. Will it be sustained for long enough to make a big difference.

As of now, loss of sea ice area has been slow in the peripheral seas while sea ice area has been increasing in the High Arctic.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 24h
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

That wind that the Laptev Sea would briefly experience turned into a more problematic system. So it'll be interesting to see what effect these winds will have on the weak ice in the Laptev sea.

[Freegrass]

The Atlantic side is getting demolished...

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 24h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Things are heating up in the Beaufort. It looks like we'll be getting our first melt ponds there.
Curious to see how big the gap will be that the wind there could open up.

That Laptev storm gained a little speed again, so it'll be moving over the Laptev a little faster than it was predicted two days ago. Eventually it'll help speed up Fram export some more if this forecast holds. But as always, 5 days is a long time for a forecast in the Arctic...

Added the 30 day HYCOM. Look at the ice in the Barents...

[Aluminium]

April 22 - May 1.

2021.

[Aluminium]

Positive temperature at 850 hPa in the Beaufort Sea.

[Freegrass]

We're only just back to "normal" within the meaningless 80th northern parallel. I thought we would have been above normal by now...

[be cause]

nothing is meaningless ; dmi80 spent the next 30 days below 'normal' in 2012 . Perhaps it could be seen as a warning sign ?

[kassy]

It would help if there was some theory attached to it all but there really isn't i think. There is no good way to extrapolate 1, 2 or 3 months out so the graph tells us we are here. Knowing were you are is at least meaningful but the chart is more useful for comparing years.

[El Cid]

I think the current "rampage" by the low pressure system in the Barents-Kara region is important. It has already stirred up the seas, probably redistributed warm water from below and hastens the decline of the thin ice there - its results are already visible.

The storm is now set to move a bit north and keep hitting the ice there for another week. I would expect an early opening up of the Atlantic Front. I think this storm hit the ice at the "right" moment to kill it.

[oren]

We're only just back to "normal" within the meaningless 80th northern parallel. I thought we would have been above normal by now...

I remind all that the DMI North of 80 temperature average is strangely weighted by latitude, not by area, and is therefore more representative of the 85N parallel than of 80N.

[SimonF92]

We're only just back to "normal" within the meaningless 80th northern parallel. I thought we would have been above normal by now...

I remind all that the DMI North of 80 temperature average is strangely weighted by latitude, not by area, and is therefore more representative of the 85N parallel than of 80N.

I prefer Zac Labes's 70N one. It hasnt updated unfortunately

https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

[Aluminium]

Snow cover feels good. Without early continental heat a strong melting season seems unlikely.

[nadir]

Snow cover feels good. Without early continental heat a strong melting season seems unlikely.

Rutgers Ice Lab agrees with Tealight’s map, April NH snow cover slightly over average, current conditions show snow melt delay in the N. American continent.

[The Walrus]

The continuing barrage of snowstorms has kept the snow totals high in North America.

[Sublime_Rime]

Snow cover feels good. Without early continental heat a strong melting season seems unlikely.

I agree, especially regarding the NH, which seems to be contributing to reduced temp anomalies in the short to mid-term there. However, I wouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security with recent stalls in extent. The Atlantic storms have been pushing the ice in Greenland sea, Barents and Kara South and scattering it, which I would expect to increase extent in the short term, but lead to a crash in the mid-term. There seems to be another dipole setup emerging in the next 3-5 days that would likely prolong this trend (see image).

Basically the Beaufort is getting a decent sized blast of heat and sun as the winds push Atlantic-side ice into warmer waters in the next 3-5 days, so I expect extend drops to continue stalling and then crash in 5-10 days. I'm interested to hear others' take on this.

[binntho]

Snow cover feels good. Without early continental heat a strong melting season seems unlikely.

The anomalies are all at the southern extremes of the snow cover. This will melt very soon, and the rest is "normal" in an abnormal world. I wouldn't put too much faith in snow cover!

Besides which, the oceans are by far the biggest conveyor of heat to the Arctic, and solar insolation is the major vector of melt, so generally I don't think continental heat has that much of an effect.

[Freegrass]

April 2022 Weather Hindcast
Very large GIF!

[Freegrass]

HYCOM May 1 comparison GIFs
2022 vs 2021
2022 vs 2020
2022 vs 2019
2022 vs 2018

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Relatively calm and cold over the basin, with round two of the Atlantic onslaught coming up by the end of the week...

30 day HYCOM added.

[Aluminium]

Relatively calm and cold over the basin, with round two of the Atlantic onslaught coming up by the end of the week...

It's relatively cold but the forecast is warmer than normal. This should bring the ice to melting point faster.

[Freegrass]

Relatively calm and cold over the basin, with round two of the Atlantic onslaught coming up by the end of the week...

It's relatively cold but the forecast is warmer than normal. This should bring the ice to melting point faster.

Define "normal". We know it's already warmer in the arctic, so compared to when? 1979/2000 base? We're way past that normal...


The Barents is way cold now...

[Aluminium]

1979/2000 base?

Why not. The forecasts easily can be pretty cold compared to 1979-2000.

[Freegrass]

1979/2000 base?

Why not. The forecasts easily can be pretty cold compared to 1979-2000.

True, but that was very local, balanced out by the warmer anomalies.

Looking at the first temp anomaly picture you posted, I see an overal 3°C above normal, which is about the same as the amount the arctic has warmed up. So I would consider that a new "relatively normal" temperature.

Anyway... It's not extremely hot. I guess that's what I meant... So far the ice looks pretty good if you ignore the Atlantic side. The only thing out of the ordinary there is the cold temperature of the Barents sea. I'm guessing that's because it had to deal with a lot of cold northerly winds during the past months and the ice being blown into it now.

My eyes are on the Laptev and the Beaufort now. If we have early open water there, it'll have a lot of time to heat up during the season. The Beaufort particularly looks weak this year, although the signs are that the ice is thick.

It'll all depend on the prevailing winds there in the coming weeks how quickly the Beaufort will melt out.

[Paul]

Snow cover feels good. Without early continental heat a strong melting season seems unlikely.

The anomalies are all at the southern extremes of the snow cover. This will melt very soon, and the rest is "normal" in an abnormal world. I wouldn't put too much faith in snow cover!

Besides which, the oceans are by far the biggest conveyor of heat to the Arctic, and solar insolation is the major vector of melt, so generally I don't think continental heat has that much of an effect.

Alot of debate on whether snow cover can play a part in a melting season but the results seems rather mixed too me. In 2014 for example, snow cover retreated at a very quick pace over Eurasia in April but extent never really threatened the records although the retreat in the Laptev was quite sharp. Of course in 2012, snowcover also retreated fast and did produce a record whereas in 2017 higher than average snowcover may of played a part why we never broke any records then despite a record breaking(by some distance) amount of volume by the start of the melting season.

I guess the theory is, the longer the snow lasts, the less potent any heat entering the basin will be which reduces the amount of melt ponds and limits how warm the SSTS get.

[be cause]

Zack Labe's 70'N+ has updated for April .. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR6Z2u8X0AI8Szi?format=jpg&name=large .. ranked 15th in the satellite era .. coldest since 2014

[oren]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Relatively calm and cold over the basin, with round two of the Atlantic onslaught coming up by the end of the week...

30 day HYCOM added.

Thanks for posting both forecast and monthly hindcast.
Maybe calm, but looks like sustained Fram export weather.