The 2022 melting season

[oren]

Zack Labe is still watching the ice, had some interesing charts he posted here...

Zach has also posted here on the PIOMAS thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg341599.html#msg341599

[Michael Hauber]

Here is comparison of ice retreat in Chukchi vs 2020, which had a very strong retreat in this region.  In the top part near Wrangel Island this year lags a lot with the main ice already clear of Wrangel Island, although some significant drifts of ice were still there 2020 which are a bit hard to differentiate from the partial cloud cover.

In contrast the retreat of the main ice edge in the bottom part towards the Beaufort region is very strong, and keeping up with 2020.  There is a lot of dispersion this year, although 2020 has a finer structure to the floes and to me looks like it is closer to complete melt out.  Most years have a pattern more like 2020 (but not as advanced) with stronger melt at the top towards the Siberian coastline vs the Beaufort side.  This year is unusual with the strength of retreat on the Beaufort side of Chukhi vs Siberian side.

[HapHazard]

Today's image of the low concentration area, levels tweaked to bring out details/clouds.

IMO, this season, the usual datum of extent/area/volume doesn't tell enough of the story.

[Aluminium]

July 4-8.

2021.

[gerontocrat]

Not sure I've seen such a big blob of low concentration ice in the Central Arctic (much of it North of 85) this early in July. Images from Univ Bremen & Nico Sun attached.

Mind you, Nico Sun's graph of daily sea ice area shows sea ice area loss continues at a very slow rate.

click images to enlarge

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

[oren]

Lots of movement in the CAB.

[Paul]

Not sure I've seen such a big blob of low concentration ice in the Central Arctic (much of it North of 85) this early in July. Images from Univ Bremen & Nico Sun attached.

Mind you, Nico Sun's graph of daily sea ice area shows sea ice area loss continues at a very slow rate.

click images to enlarge

2013 has seen similar levels of dispersed ice in that area and we saw the end of result of that with open water inside the 85 degree circle by the end of August so it's an area that needs watching.

Given the Barants SSTS and hints we may see some warm southerlies, then the Atlantic edge may get quite far northwards again and it could get interesting if it does reaches that diffused area.

[The Walrus]

Not sure I've seen such a big blob of low concentration ice in the Central Arctic (much of it North of 85) this early in July. Images from Univ Bremen & Nico Sun attached.

Mind you, Nico Sun's graph of daily sea ice area shows sea ice area loss continues at a very slow rate.

click images to enlarge

2013 has seen similar levels of dispersed ice in that area and we saw the end of result of that with open water inside the 85 degree circle by the end of August so it's an area that needs watching.

Given the Barants SSTS and hints we may see some warm southerlies, then the Atlantic edge may get quite far northwards again and it could get interesting if it does reaches that diffused area.

2013 had the second highest minima in the past 15 years (only 2009 was higher).

[Michael Hauber]

The disperse area near the pole looks bigger than 2013 at same date to me.  2013 had a slow melt on the Pacific side, whereas this year looks to be primed for a strong melt on that side.  Chukchi is melting faster than many recent years but behind the fastest.  Beaufort is slow from a 2-D point of view but has had a lot of heat and surface melt, and I'm confident will see significant loss of extent later in the season.

Interesting to look at the current weak area near the pole in channel 3-6-7.  Mostly an orange colour suggesting frozen surface, but a patch of redder ice near the weakest point.  A larger patch free of clouds allowing enough sunshine for surface melt?  Or is it thin enough that the surface is being wet by wave action suggesting high chance of complete melt out?

[Paul]

2013 started with the dispersion earlier than this year but too me they look fairly similar. I do get the impression the ice on the Pacific side is more solid in 2013 but it did not had as much multi year ice in the Beaufort as this year does.

Yet again the forecasts are suggesting a deep low, this time right over the pole and only slowly moving away and perhaps weakening as it does so but the way this summer has gone I would not always bet for that! Either way, can't do the ice near the diffused area much good. Hints in the medium to longer term we may see high pressure developing on the Atlantic side which could be interesting.

[Michael Hauber]

The thing about the Beaufort is that the ice melts out to roughly 77N nearly every year since 2012.  2013 was one exception.  And last year the ice nearly melted out to about 77N with significant areas of open water in this region, but also significant areas of very thin and disperse ice further south.  There was almost no good melt weather impacting the Beaufort last year.  In many years a tongue of ice along the edge reaches further south with 2020 and 2021 this tongue went quite a long way.  Considering the amount of heat and surface melting in the Beaufort this year I'd be surprised if we didn't at least see something like 2020 with everything but a possibly longue but thin tongue melting out to about 77 or so.

[Aluminium]

July 6-10.

2021.

[binntho]

July 6-10.

There seems to have benn a large "poof" event in the Chuckchi Sea between July 9 and 10, same can be seen in Oren's post above. The regional graph does not yet include July 10, let's see what it looks like tomorrow.

[johnm33]

"Poof" I'm seeing that as tidal forcing with wind assist. The inertia of the flow through Denmark strait keeps the flow out through Fram fairly steady, the present mslp over the Nordic seas limits the available influx of Atl. waters so an increased flow comes in from the Pacific. It looks like it's all about to change with the nullschool forecast for wednesday indicating a huge increase in inflow from the Atlantic plus an increased flow out through Fram and warmer water showing up along the Barents shelf slope all the way to Laptev.
but we'll see...

[nadir]

This week PAC-21 PAC-22 will become 1-month old which to my knowledge is quite the record.

Edit - yes thank you. I’m still Omicron convalescent, forgot which year it iis 

[be cause]

agreed .. at least in the last 10 years .. though forecasts are finally forecasting it's demise in a week or so .. ( though perhaps PAC-22 ? )
 

[Jim Hunt]

There seems to have been a large "poof" event in the Chuckchi Sea between July 9 and 10

AWI's high resolution AMSR2 extent showed a big decline between the 8th and 9th.

Area not so much. It went "poof" a couple of days earlier.

[binntho]

There seems to have been a large "poof" event in the Chuckchi Sea between July 9 and 10

AWI's high resolution AMSR2 extent showed a big decline between the 8th and 9th.

Area not so much. It went "poof" a couple of days earlier.

A 100k drop in extent in the Chukchi sea in two days. That must be unusual. Assuming that the green line ends on June 10, that would place the start of the drop on June 8.

[Paul]

This week PAC-21 PAC-22 will become 1-month old which to my knowledge is quite the record.

Edit - yes thank you. I’m still Omicron convalescent, forgot which year it iis 

Not really the same low pressure system but I get what you mean that for the Siberian side of the basin, it has been fairly persistent, stark contrast to the last 2 years where warmer air off Siberia was more dominant.

The current forecasts still suggest this low will slowly weaken and head towards the Chukchi/ESS with quite a large cold pool for the time of year. I do think you can have too much low pressure mind which can be a bad thing for the ice longer term in the melt season.

The warm up that will happen in the Barants and the kara seas is noticetable especially with the high SSTS already there, a retreat like 2020 is possible.

[gerontocrat]

The spreading out of sea ice from the low concentration blob in the Central Arctic seems to have lead to a daily area sea ice gain on this day - at the time one expects daily sea ice area loss to be at maximum.

[be cause]

           ''Not really the same low pressure system'' 
   to me , one low pressure system has held sway at higher levels , absorbing the deepening lows that joined it's circulation . Our weather maps simplify what's happening . altitude 1.5 or 2 PVU and even ppt all show/suggest the dominance of the resident low over all-comers .
  I am wondering are we seeing a new weather pattern emerge ? There has been near continuous snowfall around the low's centre and lots of rain further out . Maybe not this year , but this could be the path to unprecedented change . It certainly makes for a different melt season .

[be cause]

4 weeks ago a little low wandered on , stage right ; onto a pretty pristine piece of ice : https://go.nasa.gov/3c5zVhQ . 4 weeks later things have changed : https://go.nasa.gov/3RrX0v4 .. it will be interesting to revisit in another 4 weeks .

[Paul]

4 weeks ago a little low wandered on , stage right ; onto a pretty pristine piece of ice : https://go.nasa.gov/3c5zVhQ . 4 weeks later things have changed : https://go.nasa.gov/3RrX0v4 .. it will be interesting to revisit in another 4 weeks .

Indeed it will be especially with this deep low that is going to cross the pole in the next few days. If it was not for that diffused ice, I would say this year could finish quite high but I got a feeling that diffused ice could play a major part in the latter half of the melt season. Its a race against the clock and there is still plenty of time left so like you say, what is that area going to look like in 4.weeks from now and beyond!?

The deep low may eventually weaken and become quite a cold trough and cold bring usually cold conditions to the ESS but it is a concerning sight what we are seeing with all this dispersion at such high latitudes.

[oren]

Cross-posting excellent material from uniquorn in the AWI thread.

SIC, v106 jul7-11 (3.5MB)

amsr2 v106 CAB extent/area update

hycom modelled ice thickness (rotated 45deg)

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Does anyone have a thickness data graph? I’m curious whether that metric is lagging as far behind this season as area and extent are. Based on that HYCOM product from Oren (while modeled, it likely still has some utility), I wonder if “poof”ing or other significant late season drops might be possible if/when areas of that thin ice start to cross the concentration threshold. I’m also starting to wonder if this season has a lurking variable that is masked by primarily viewing its metrics in 2 dimensions. However, I think it’s still quite likely that it finishes deep in the pack at this point unless something else changes to step things up a notch. Either way, besides the ESS, the pack looks to be in kind of rough shape all around in that product.

[Lord M Vader]

From what I can remember HYCOM has presented similar forecasts like that one. And if my memory is correct, all those forecasts went poof. I.e they all busted.

[Richard Rathbone]

Its a similar story for volume/thickness as it is for area/extent

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

Average Arctic sea ice volume in June 2022 was 17,000 km3. This value is the 9th lowest on record for June,  about  1,700 km^3 above the  record set in 2017.

The ice thickness anomaly map for June 2022 relative to 2011-2020 (Fig 6) continues the previous months pattern that divides the Arctic in two halves with positive anomalies in the “Western Arctic” , a strong positive anomaly in the Eastern Beaufort  but negative anomalies in “Eastern Arctic”.

[Jim Hunt]

Does anyone have a thickness data graph?

I have PIOMAS modelled thickness and thickness anomaly maps. Plus one of sea ice age. Do they help at all?

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2022/#Jul-06

As per Richard's quotation, the anomalous distribution of the older/thicker sea ice may ultimately prove to be significant?

[uniquorn]

yep, clearly shouldn't have posted HYCOM with the forecast included since that tends to be too aggressive on melt in summer as discussed extensively on the HYCOM thread, which is mostly well worth reading thanks to Interstitial's initial analyses. The forecast frames were removed in hindsight before Oren reposted the original. Here is the edited version from the AWI AMSR2 thread.



Glad it solicited some comment but the point of the post and much of my focus since mid June has been on the low concentration area between Laptev and the pole and why it might appear in that location.

[Michael Hauber]

Forecast has one last burst of intensification for the low with current EC having it bottom out at 975hp in 15 hours, and it looks like its in a good position for heavy impact on the low concentration area near the pole.   Higher pressure and warmer air starts to invade from the Atlantic side and that area will see increasing warmth and sunshine following this.  I'm guessing the chance of this area melting out completely is getting pretty decent, but would probably still depend on further good melting weather rest of the season.

[Steven]

Does anyone have a thickness data graph? I’m curious whether that metric is lagging as far behind this season as area and extent are. Based on that HYCOM product from Oren (while modeled, it likely still has some utility), I wonder if “poof”ing or other significant late season drops might be possible if/when areas of that thin ice start to cross the concentration threshold.

Here is a graph of sea ice volume that I calculate from the HYCOM images for 2018-2022.  (Earlier years not shown in the graph because the HYCOM model version was different then.)  Data for their 7-day forecast from 12 to 18 July 2022 shown with the dotted line in the graph.




Thickness anomaly map for 18 July 2022: https://i.imgur.com/AmJKhfs.png

[Paul]

Glad it solicited some comment but the point of the post and much of my focus since mid June has been on the low concentration area between Laptev and the pole and why it might appear in that location.

It's a question I asked previously and there could be a hidden reason why that area to the 'right' of the pole tends to suffer from diffused ice more so in low pressure dominated summers. I guess the more basic answer is if going by the PIOMAS model, the ice was just below average thickness wise so dispersion was always a possibility if low pressure is persistent and that is definately the case and been quite strong also at times. I suppose the good news is because of this, it's been cloudy and chilly unlike in 2020 which does not have diffused ice but melt ponds and no real sized flows to speak of.

Michael - Yes the trend is for pressure to rise although very uncertain on the details. The alarming thing for me is more down to the warm temperatures over the Barants with the rising SSTS, we could see atlantification being quite severe again and if it hits that diffused area like it did in 2013 then things could get interesting and concerning.

[Frivolousz21]

I've been really busy but I want to say the....


CAA IS GETTING DESTROYED!!!!


7C with a 6C dewpoint!!!

Decent winds and foggy mist.


This is weather that meltes a half foot of ice a day

[Michael Hauber]

Glad it solicited some comment but the point of the post and much of my focus since mid June has been on the low concentration area between Laptev and the pole and why it might appear in that location.

It's a question I asked previously and there could be a hidden reason why that area to the 'right' of the pole tends to suffer from diffused ice more so in low pressure dominated summers. I guess the more basic answer is if going by the PIOMAS model, the ice was just below average thickness wise so dispersion was always a possibility if low pressure is persistent and that is definately the case and been quite strong also at times. I suppose the good news is because of this, it's been cloudy and chilly unlike in 2020 which does not have diffused ice but melt ponds and no real sized flows to speak of.

Michael - Yes the trend is for pressure to rise although very uncertain on the details. The alarming thing for me is more down to the warm temperatures over the Barants with the rising SSTS, we could see atlantification being quite severe again and if it hits that diffused area like it did in 2013 then things could get interesting and concerning.

A couple possible influences:  With a low near the pole dispersion on the Atlantic side is pushing close to the ice edge so not much resistance to the ice spreading out.  Maps of prevailing currents in Arctic tend to push the ice into the Barents as well.  On the Pacific side the Beaufort Gyre/Transpolar drift is pushing ice towards the Atlantic so as the ice is pushed away by the low there is convergence with this larger scale motion and no dispersion on this side of the low.

[uniquorn]

While wind speed, air pressure and temperature all contribute I think the low concentration area near the pole this year is primarily related to ocean turbulence and bathymetry.
The low pressure systems move around but the low concentration areas keep appearing in the same places.

[nadir]

yep, clearly shouldn't have posted HYCOM with the forecast included since that tends to be too aggressive on melt in summer as discussed extensively on the HYCOM thread, which is mostly well worth reading thanks to Interstitial's initial analyses. The forecast frames were removed in hindsight before Oren reposted the original. Here is the edited version from the AWI AMSR2 thread.

This one shows a thinning from about 2m to less than 50 cm during the last 20 days at the MYI core of the Beaufort sea. I find it very hard to believe. Many of the biggest blocks, 80 km or 90 km long, unbroken for months, have remained almost unbroken and a certain thickness is required for that cohesion.

https://go.nasa.gov/3P5OMYf

[interstitial]

So 6/18 to 7/10 22 days by my count. I picked out one of the big blocks you identified about center of the screen on worldview at 73.3 N and 140 W. Measuring from 70 N to 80 N I get 10 deg/ 64 pixels. Assuming the block did not move much I measured 3.3 degrees north of the 70 degree circle on the 140 west line. That pixel is black because it is part of the line but based on the surrounding pixels I get a starting point of 1.85 M thick and an ending of 0.9 M thick. 95 cm in 22 days or 4.3 cm a day. The 22 days starts two days before the solstice and include some high temperatures coming from Alaska.


That seems much more likely than 1.5 M in 20 days or 7.5 cm a day you claimed.

[Aluminium]

July 8-12.

2021.

[Brigantine]

July 8-12.

Did I just see a chunk of the Chukchi un-poof?

[binntho]

July 8-12.

Did I just see a chunk of the Chukchi un-poof?

Depoofication indeed!

EOSDIS shows a lot of very dispersed ice which has stayed put for several days (see red-marked floe for lack of movement), and a lot of clouds moving over the area.

[Aluminium]

An anticyclone is forecasted at the Taymyr. Depending on how it will develop, should be at least interesting. The Atlantic side may get some warmth after those cyclones.

[gerontocrat]

It is getting later every day for low concentration to translate into sea ice losses

[nadir]

So 6/18 to 7/10 22 days by my count. I picked out one of the big blocks you identified about center of the screen on worldview at 73.3 N and 140 W. Measuring from 70 N to 80 N I get 10 deg/ 64 pixels. Assuming the block did not move much I measured 3.3 degrees north of the 70 degree circle on the 140 west line. That pixel is black because it is part of the line but based on the surrounding pixels I get a starting point of 1.85 M thick and an ending of 0.9 M thick. 95 cm in 22 days or 4.3 cm a day. The 22 days starts two days before the solstice and include some high temperatures coming from Alaska.


That seems much more likely than 1.5 M in 20 days or 7.5 cm a day you claimed.

That sounds reasonable.

We might see much of this ice disappear after all. As other years, moderate/strong storms would be able to break up this distribution of big blocks and accelerate melt.

[The Walrus]

So 6/18 to 7/10 22 days by my count. I picked out one of the big blocks you identified about center of the screen on worldview at 73.3 N and 140 W. Measuring from 70 N to 80 N I get 10 deg/ 64 pixels. Assuming the block did not move much I measured 3.3 degrees north of the 70 degree circle on the 140 west line. That pixel is black because it is part of the line but based on the surrounding pixels I get a starting point of 1.85 M thick and an ending of 0.9 M thick. 95 cm in 22 days or 4.3 cm a day. The 22 days starts two days before the solstice and include some high temperatures coming from Alaska.


That seems much more likely than 1.5 M in 20 days or 7.5 cm a day you claimed.

That sounds reasonable.

We might see much of this ice disappear after all. As other years, moderate/strong storms would be able to break up this distribution of big blocks and accelerate melt.

At this point in time, it may take a strong storm to break up the ice.  Based on gerontocrat's graph and the slow melt this summer, it is looking doubtful.  The average extent loss this century is 2.09 M sq. km., and so far this year, the losses have amounted to only 1.93M.  We may witness a bigger loss later this summer, but that may just make up for the sluggish start.

[MrGreeny]

I've been really busy but I want to say the....


CAA IS GETTING DESTROYED!!!!


7C with a 6C dewpoint!!!

Decent winds and foggy mist.


This is weather that meltes a half foot of ice a day

Damn up there it looks really toasty meanwhile down here it feels like a ice cold fridge.

[Aluminium]

A bit cold to swim, but warm enough to sunbathe. In any case, it's really hostile to the ice. At the same time, Wrangel Island has positive dew point almost continuously. Despite cyclonic activity and high extent/area numbers, there is little safe space.

[Steven]

While wind speed, air pressure and temperature all contribute I think the low concentration area near the pole this year is primarily related to ocean turbulence and bathymetry.
The low pressure systems move around but the low concentration areas keep appearing in the same places.

Looking at the average sea level pressure since early May 2022, the location of the low pressure  matches rather well with the low concentration area between Laptev and the North Pole.

[Paul]

A bit cold to swim, but warm enough to sunbathe. In any case, it's really hostile to the ice. At the same time, Wrangel Island has positive dew point almost continuously. Despite cyclonic activity and high extent/area numbers, there is little safe space.

Don't think that is anything too unusual though, it's not that far away from landmasses so any flown from the south has the potential to be warm, especially in July.

As it happens the current forecast suggests things cooling down quite a bit for the Pacific side of the basin as the current deep low over the pole heads to that side of the basin, weakening as it does so. Some pretty impressive negative anaomlies at 850hpa. Of course at ice level, the temperatures don't really drop but we also don't get the extreme temperatures either if the winds come in from the landmass.

Meanwhile pressure over the pole starts to rise and today model's runs are really ramping up the ridge with very warm 850 temperatures near Svalbard. The fact this is occurring over warm open water to begin with is concerning and the winds coming from the warm Barants then the retreat on the Atlantic side could start again.

[Brigantine]

Some context on the Baffin side from CIS. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a (small) contribution to minimum this year, depending on drift.

2nd highest in 20 years, though still quite short of 2015. Of course, this is part of the same story as Nares Strait being open all winter.