The 2022 melting season

[gerontocrat]

Did that big area North of 80 of low concentration ice / melt ponds allowed temperatures North of 80 to spike well above the average yesterday, or was it high temperatures North of 80 over Greenland, or both ?

[be cause]

All the open water has been there a while with no impact on temps but 48 hrs of heat from Ellesmere/Greenland has changed a lot . Snow has been melting and melt ponds appearing . As I was anticipating the rise in dmi80' temps I would go with the heat not the holes ; though they may be a factor later .

[OffTheGrid]

Waves appearing in holes all over the basin.
Yesterday to several days ahead 850hPa Temps
Showing above zero to over ten C over most of the basin. Never seen that before.

[be cause]

meanwhile the dispersion continues almost unnoticed . Eg. the pair of floes today @ 84N 120E have travelled over 100 km almost due south in the last 9 days helping create the open water for those waves . Trouble is there is plenty more wind pushing ice into the path of the next heatwave(s) from Eurasia . There is still plenty of danger ahead and potential for a complete collapse east of 0'/180' meridian .
   

[Aluminium]

July 14-18.

2021.

[uniquorn]

A nice post from the Polarstern expedition today with a photo from Christian Haas.
https://follow-polarstern.awi.de/?lang=en

[oren]

Interesting, thanks Uniquorn.

[Icegod]

It's been cooler than average at 80N since April. This is really the first real spike of the summer. IMO the extent must be down to 6.5M by August 1st if this has any shot at all going under 4M. This is your climatological peak for temperatures above 80N. These models have a warming bias to them especially the further out you look. I'm sure you have watched these models and expected big melts just to get disappointed (or relieved depending on perspective). Anything more than a week out under performs the cold its been that way for years.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

This is very bad because the Yamal region is one of the large reservoirs of methane clathrates. Methane is hundreds of times more powerful GHG molecule than CO2 until it oxidises to it - and there are very substantive quantities of it around. Both land and sea emissions are likely to occur.

I just noticed a Sea Surface Temp Anomaly of 11.1 C   off the Yamal peninsula.  I am surprised there is not more melting in the Kara and Laptev.   I cannot remember any period when SSTA was as high as this !

[OffTheGrid]

Reading your mind Veli.
Just came on here to post a pic of that SSTA
And the waveholes and 850hPa temperatures, And the biggest CME Auroral flare-up I have ever seen.

[Frivolousz21]

Modis today is a perfect summation of why this summer is turning out to be one of the weakest melt seasons in the post 2007 ERA.

Below are two modis images from today/yesterday.


We see a nice area of clearing over the central arctic basin.  Because of that cold cloudy deep summertime PV anomaly as the warmer air aloft and likely modest warmth near the surface cycles into the basin.

We can still see that a rather large area on of fresh snow blankets the central Arctic basin.

Not only that the deep peach color indicates the to surface is rather dry/hard freeze.

While not unheard of this is still very rare for this time of year. 
.

[johnm33]

This is very bad because the Yamal region is one of the large reservoirs of methane clathrates. Methane is hundreds of times more powerful GHG molecule than CO2 until it oxidises to it - and there are very substantive quantities of it around. Both land and sea emissions are likely to occur.

I just noticed a Sea Surface Temp Anomaly of 11.1 C   off the Yamal peninsula.  I am surprised there is not more melting in the Kara and Laptev.   I cannot remember any period when SSTA was as high as this !

Agreed, the smooth coast suggests it's permafrost, the holes that opened up were 65m deep, at no point does the peninsular rise above 50m. The gas here should be used as a priority, or the Russians should be paid to burn it off, before a catastrophic release occurs. Difficult to imagine how that could be accomplished given current circumstances.
The waves have been at 90⁰ to the coast I'm guessing that means they rotate and slam into any ice cliffs thereabouts generating plenty of mud, enhancing any insolation effect in the ocean. With the high positioned as it is it suggests an increased outflow through Fram so any Atl. waters forced north will find an easier passage across Barents, so I guess it gets worse before it gets better?

[Jontenoy]

  12.4 deg C    Sea Surface Temp Anomaly today N of Yamal peninsula. This is a really, really big figure.   Probably due to enormous heat energy exiting from the vast Siberian river systems .   This heat must manifest itself by acceleration of ice melt in Kara and Laptev over the next two weeks or so.

[Jontenoy]

  There is actually one area of 13.8  deg C !

[Paul]

  12.4 deg C    Sea Surface Temp Anomaly today N of Yamal peninsula. This is a really, really big figure.   Probably due to enormous heat energy exiting from the vast Siberian river systems .   This heat must manifest itself by acceleration of ice melt in Kara and Laptev over the next two weeks or so.

Not necessarily the case as you see in Hudson Bay, the area right outside the ice is cold so you always going have to the resilience despite the warm SSTS. all that said, any wind direction coming from that direction will be much warmer than normal and that will definately put pressure on the Atlantic front. I do fear we could see ice reaching upto 85 degrees north on that side.

We could see an ice shape similar to 2018 although the difference between then and now is the ice pack looks much less compact in the CAB so I still think the diffused area could play a role in the latter part of the season.

[OffTheGrid]

We can still see that a rather large area on of fresh snow blankets the central Arctic basin.

Not only that the deep peach color indicates the to surface is rather dry/hard freeze.

Rare indeed. Even SAR has been, less so than Eosdis, with its 1km pixels in that mode Friv,
Been having trouble distinguishing between snow and ice cloud at altitude, and the actual surface, with it being so finely ground up.
Both showing "peach" or ice crystals you may think floating, as far south as Scotland.
Unfortunately I can't do much with 65MB images except reduce them to this resolution. Whether it's water or air the snow is floating on, might be better if you go to polarview to make your mind up. Hard frozen I think not.

[Jim Hunt]

A fairly clear view of the “Laptev Bite” this morning (UTC):

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2022/#Jul-20

Click to enlarge.

[Aluminium]

Nullschool, July 25. Warm air travels across the Kara sea into the CAB.

[be cause]

Indeed , Aluminium , now ECMWF have fallen into step with most recent gfs runs in bringing warmth across Kara into the basin . The accompanying winds and rain over the Atlantic front look destructive . The daily century drops  should at the minimum continue . Any weather pattern that keeps Greenland's cold out of the Basin's circulation is not good at this time .

[Michael Hauber]

Some break up of the ice in the inner ESS sector (i.e. ESS or CAB inwards of ESS) suddenly visible.  This despite the weather being relatively moderate - some mild warm anomalies and moderate winds.  This is the area of ice that I had recently commented on being unlikely to melt out which would therefore make it very unlikely that we would challenge for a record.  The dispersion so far is relatively minor, and its getting somewhat short on time now to melt out from that level of dispersion.  But last two years we have similar levels of dispersion in the Beaufort area up to late July with major melt out occurring in August, so one to watch.

Current forecast looks to really hit the Laptev sector hard, and will put some warmth into the Laptev side of the ESS sector.  If we do see a substantial melt out in the inner ESS sector and we see the big reductions in Laptev sector that seem likely on current forecast then this season gets interesting.  One thing I have noticed in the Laptev sector is that there is a fair bit of convergence around the low concentration area with no signs of floes melting out so the low concentration area may be compacted out.

Question mark on Beaufort and whether the heavy heat in that area has done enough damage.  Considering late season melt outs in Beaufort last two years I would think that this would be enough damage for a repeat, but PIOMAS shows substantial thickness in this region in mid month update, and from a 2-D point of view pretty much nothing has happened in the last few weeks in that area.

[Aluminium]

July 16-20.

2021.

[El Cid]

A huge high pressure zone is going to stay above the CAB/ESS/Laptev for at least 5-7 days, so probably plenty of sunshine. If it were June, Friv would be all capital letters by now

Even now, this could hit the fragmented area N of the Atlantic Front, we still have 1-2 weeks for that. In that case a very interesting shape of the remaining ice would form, and we could still see open seas to the NP even

shown: ecmwf in 3 days and fragmented area

[johnm33]

A look at the gap between the mainland and S.Z. 3-12-20:07 click

[Paul]

A huge high pressure zone is going to stay above the CAB/ESS/Laptev for at least 5-7 days, so probably plenty of sunshine. If it were June, Friv would be all capital letters by now

Even now, this could hit the fragmented area N of the Atlantic Front, we still have 1-2 weeks for that. In that case a very interesting shape of the remaining ice would form, [and we could still see open seas to the NP even[/b]

shown: ecmwf in 3 days and fragmented area

I'm sure we see those comments every year and I'm assuming you mean an actual ice edge reaching the NP, I'm petty confident we won't see any open water at the pole. May see diffused ice though.

From what I have learnt, whilst the pole may get 24 hour sunlight, the strength of the sun is not as strong as southern latitudes so an area of high pressure may not necessary be a bad thing. High pressure tends to be a worse weather pattern if it links to any heat domes over the continent which brings alot of WAA to the Arctic warming the seas up considerably. That is what we saw in 2020. If its a high pressure over the basin but with reletively cool air aloft then I think that is more favourable than people may think.

[Aluminium]

Any open water under sunshine will receive a lot of energy. Just imagine a GAC after this anticyclone.

[NeilT]

Just imagine a GAC at mid August instead of the beginning of August, after the sun has had a chance to weaken the ice a lot more.

It really doesn't look like there will be catastrophic melt.  But, conversely, it also doesn't look like good and healthy ice.

Which means it could break in any direction and we won't know until it is well into the break.

[johnm33]

Looking at the Kara/Yamal anomoly over the last ten days courtesy Nullschool attempting to implicate Atl. ingress, at best a fractional definite maybe.
Added current hycom sss and sst gifs, the temp. gif convinces me of an upturn in Atl. flow across southern Barents, it's interfered with by tidal[?] flux of the White sea but presses on into Kara. I think having established it could form a main source of replenishment for waters driven out by the high mslp and as such could bring warm currents through Laptev and dropping off the shelf there then flow against the ESS shelf towards Chukchi.

[OffTheGrid]

Goodness Gracious! This slushies on the boil!
Nullschools being very insistent about that growing open area in the North Beaufort.
And the only frosty looking patch, is doomed in the inner Laptev. Not surprising considering clear skies and the sun just came up.
This could melt from  the pole out to all coasts. 🤯

[HapHazard]

Low concentration area. Very mild contrast tweak. The rubblefication continues...

[Aluminium]

I didn't find anything like this in previous years. The sky is cleared almost to the North Pole and there are large areas of open water north of 88N. For this time of year it looks like the worst possible combination. The weather still have enough time to do something with the ice.

[uniquorn]

A very small rammb of development of the low concentration area between Laptev and the pole, jun15-jul22, 24fps
https://col.st/3mGm1  (2.3MB)
jul19 is missing, happy to remove if filesize is too large

[oren]

Excellent animation. Please don't remove.

[Michael Hauber]

I have been comparing this year to 2018 due to similarities in progress on the Pacific front, and to 2013 and 2016 due to similarities in dispersion on the Atlantic side near the North Pole.  This year does seem to be falling behind 2018 on the Pacific side a little with recent cooler weather and not much helpful wind, but is still doing very well near the north pole.

Looking at all these years extent it is curious that they converge towards the end of July.  2013 which finishes with the highest minimum of the three has noticeably slowed down by this stage of July, whereas this year is currently very close to 2018 and losing extent at a decent but not spectacular rate.

[Aluminium]

July 18-22.

2021.

[El Cid]

I think "The Soup" between the NP and the Atlantic Front/Laptev is the most interesting feature of the year. As Aluminium wrote there has not been anything like this at this time of the year (at least I also failed to find anything resembling it).
The big question is whether this "links up" with the melting Atlantic Front and opens up totally by September. if it does we could have a very intersting final ice, something like this:

(btw the next few days are going to be real sunny over there still)

[Paul]

Some of the floes in that "soup" are of decent enough size so I don't think any retreat will be as severe as your line suggests but visually it does look ugly.

All that said, in 2020 the ice was quite concentrated and if you did not know anything about that melt season, you would not imagine the retreat would be so severe because the ice looked compact but clearly the ice was thinner than it looks and SSTS played a role also.

It's why I am concerned about the ice on the Atlantic side, very good chance the retreat will reach the diffused area and who knows what could happen after that. Concerning yet facenating. If it was not for that diffused area I woukd say this year has every chance of finishing above 2021 but there could still be a twist in this melt season yet.

[uniquorn]

A quick analysis of the floe movement along 120E. First using terra modis from jul19-23. https://go.nasa.gov/3BaqwzW  Forward and back.

Here we can see the higher concentration ice moving into the low concentration area, likely due to the high pressure anti-cyclone. What we don't really see, but is very apparent in the rammb animation from jul20-22 is the damping of the surface motion as the lower concentration ice is assimilated.
https://col.st/3mGm1 (rotated 90deg)

edit: added awi amsr2 v106 CAB extent/area
More detail here:

<>
The product has a high resolution, but this comes at the price of a relatively high sensitivity to atmospheric influences (weather noise).
<>

Which may explain some of the 'sawtooth' nature of the stats, which are produced every 12hrs

[johnm33]

Thanks, I couldn't help seeing circular formations on a massive scale in the stills, and there is actually some limited rotation happening.

[NeilT]

Not this time of year.  But it is easy to forget, when looking at the graphs and not the images, what has gone before.

But for a very small change in the weather, 2016 could have been absolutely catastrophic and for day 203, 2021 is only 300k away from 2016.

[uniquorn]

Following up on whoi itp129 from the buoy thread

<>
itp129 is the nearest itp to Polarstern. Slight surface warming under ice recently. Higher salinity rising up to 25m depth for a little while. Could have been proximity to the shelf break. Probably won't drift south for a while now.

whoi location and profile contours
homebrew close up on 0m-90m
animated drift
drift close up

maybe worth noting the rise in near surface temps under the ice at last position on 2022/7/23 70046 UTC : 84.7181° N, 44.8448° E

A lucky break in the clouds at that location right now.

1. whoi itp129 location and profile
2-3. https://go.nasa.gov/3BeiyWy overview and close up
4. Homebrew version in more detail 0m-90m shows some warming with missing data. Not sure what has prevented the profiler completing the full profile. Can be turbulence, high drift or fouling on the cable.

[gerontocrat]

I guess that the 2 main factors that will determine remaining melt to minimum are the warmth accumulated in the central Arctic Ocean and the Albedo Warming Potential as it is now combined with the weather for the remainder of the year in the central Arctic.

The attached map suggests that where open water has emerged, positive SST anomalies are high

The 2 months of maximum insolation (May 21 to July 21) have passed. Insolation drops quickly from now on. The AWP as at 22 July is well below that of recent years, and in the High Arctic well below the 2010's average.

It seems to me that despite the very large area of extreme low concentration in the central arctic from the NP to the Laptev at 80 North, the potential for massive sea ice loss is limited.

click images to enlarge

[Lord M Vader]

I guess that the 2 main factors that will determine remaining melt to minimum are the warmth accumulated in the central Arctic Ocean and the Albedo Warming Potential as it is now combined with the weather for the remainder of the year in the central Arctic.

The attached map suggests that where open water has emerged, positive SST anomalies are high

The 2 months of maximum insolation (May 21 to July 21) have passed. Insolation drops quickly from now on. The AWP as at 22 July is well below that of recent years, and in the High Arctic well below the 2010's average.

It seems to me that despite the very large area of extreme low concentration in the central arctic from the NP to the Laptev at 80 North, the potential for massive sea ice loss is limited.

click images to enlarge

Agree. There should be two ways that would be disatrous for the ice.

1) a bombcyclone over the soup in the next 2, at most 3 weeks, would do massive damage to that ice, especially if warm sea water from Kara-Barents is being pumped up, I.e a reversed dipole of just warm air being transported northward.

2) a continous warm air flow from Kara-Barents might be sufficient to connect a potential polynya with the Atlantic.

Of those two, number 1 would be the worst outcome.

In any ways, the ice is fortune that this nelting season has been one of the weakest for years. The most interesting things for now are:

1) how much of the CAA will melt out?

2) how much of the soup will melt out?

3) how much of the Beaufort and Pacific front will resist melting?

4) will we see a minimum above 5 million wrt NSIDC numbers?

[Freegrass]

p.s. I must admit to missing Freegrass .. I hope he returns soon though his departure seemed to be final . 

See how you are? Nothing is final in this life... A pain in the ass like me is hard to get rid off...  😂🤣😂🥰🙏

Haven't seen a 30day HYCOM here so far. I must admit I'm still few weeks behind on posts...

Is there still a need for the June weather hindcast? I'll do the July weather hindcast next week.

[OffTheGrid]

As someone who monitors the S1 Radar daily, I can say that what was different about the past winter, is that none of the ice formed on the Eurasian continental shelf made it past the shelf break into the Central Basin without being softened and thoroughly fragmented. The pack remained far more mobile and constantly broken from all angles all winter largely
Basin wide.
The images we are getting now, make what in visual low resolution products you might assume are round contiguous floes, as sheets of contiguous ice, but actually they are weekly bound composite if many fragments.

We are also seeing large areas where the fractional area of ice is as low as ten percent, but they will count in Area and Extent as 100% ice covered, though the remaining up to 9O% is floating freshly fallen snow.
If the snow stops for long, or serious winds come in, we will see things change very fast.
It is very dangerous having so much of the ice so dispersed, and large fetches available for it to be attacked by wind and wave from many directions at once.
And the heat is available near the coasts for much longer.

[uniquorn]

Low res aqua modis of the pole today.
https://go.nasa.gov/3vdQpv3   (light contrast)

edit: update from the AWI snowbuoy near the pole. Temperature sensor is at 1m.
2022-07-24T00:00:00      89.7484N   158.7418

e2: ecmwf and gfs are both modelled cooler than these buoy temps by Windy, though it has a large pole hole. We can calibrate with Polarstern when it reaches the pole.

Just a touch of nullschool waves

[Jim Hunt]

But it is easy to forget, when looking at the graphs and not the images, what has gone before.

Quite so Neil, and I've been wondering along those lines also:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2022/#Jul-24

The rate of extent decline has increased over recent days. Is 2022 more likely to follow the path of 2012, 2013 or 2016 to this year's minimum?

Plus pictures from the North Pole in mid July 2022 versus late August 2016:

[OffTheGrid]

Plus pictures from the North Pole in mid July 2022 versus late August 2016:

I suspect that choosing the time and place and framing of the shot can be loaded with many different motivations Jim.
Like the ones from that French cruise ship. Eg.





Which shows on careful examination what passes for a pressure ridge now, with their Flag planted in it, and much open sea in the background.

I don't know if Northern hemisphere weather has been affected by the Tongan Eruption, which involved 8 cubic km of magma detonating in less than a second, and putting that and an unknown quantity of seawater into the upper stratosphere, but it's doubled Southern hemisphere Aerosols, probably the cause of absurdly high rainfalls in the south. Perhaps some salts are affecting even the Arctic precipitation, since parts of the eruption column reached 60-90km up.

[Brigantine]

Tongan Eruption, which involved 8 cubic km of magma detonating in less than a second

No way was there 8km³ of magma involved. The magma content was minimal, it was mostly a steam explosion.
On that note, do you have citations for the doubling of aerosols? Everything I heard said sulfate aerosols were relatively low from the Tongan eruption

[oren]

Thanks Brigantine.
Any volcanic-related responses to go in the "Volcanoes" thread.

[Jim Hunt]

I suspect that choosing the time and place and framing of the shot can be loaded with many different motivations

And your point is?