NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: June poll

[Brigantine]

Not to be confused with the JAXA Poll

These are the September averages in 2000-2021 (in million km²):

Year      Extent
2000        6.25
2001        6.73
2002        5.83
2003        6.12
2004        5.98
2005        5.50
2006        5.86
2007        4.27
2008        4.69
2009        5.26
2010        4.87
2011        4.56
2012        3.57
2013        5.21
2014        5.22
2015        4.62
2016        4.53
2017        4.82
2018        4.79
2019        4.36
2020        4.00
2021        4.92

[oren]

Thanks a lot, Brigantine.
Voted 4.25-4.75 as a conservative bet, with near-zero data.

[Stephan]

I voted for the 4.25 ± 0.25 M km² bin.

[gerontocrat]

I am with 4.25 to 4.75 million km2.

This is based on NSIDC 5-day daily data, using actual data to 4 June and the 10 year average of sea ice extent losses from then to end September. This results in a September average of around 4.7 million km2, which would be 9th lowest in the satellite data and a bit lower than Sept 21.

However, my guess is for a bit of catch-up to get the result a bit lower.

Note:- I use NSIDC 5-day data which produces a marginally different result than using one day NSIDC data (but not enough to matter)

[trm1958]

I guessed a little less than "normal" for the last seven years or so. So I picked 4.00-4.50.

[The Walrus]

I guessed a little less than "normal" for the last seven years or so. So I picked 4.00-4.50.

Same here.  The ice has been tracking 2011 quite closely, and the minimum that year was 4.34.

[nadir]

This forum is becoming more realist in their predictions as years go by.

I’m more or less at the median in both polls.

[Icegod]

I'm new but I've been following the ice for a long time. I'm convinced the ice follows ocean cycles. So I'm going out on a limb and say 5.0-5.5....It was 4.92 last year and around 5.2 in 2013 and 2014....

[oren]

Welcome, IceGod.

[Freegrass]

The smart thing to do would be to choose between 4.25 and 4.75 million km², but I'm gonna take a gamble here, and bet on an August GAC.  And so I picked between 3.75 and 4.25 million km² for this NSIDC poll. It's been a while since we had a GAC, and so the odds are going up for that...

[Brigantine]

Final vote: 4.75-5.25

Probably moderately high in comparison to recent years, but hey it's still June and anything could happen.
[Edited] Final Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.76
Median                                4.86
Highest Probability Density 4.99
95% Confidence Range      3.41 - 5.65

<1.75 <0.1%, 1.75-2.00 <0.01%
2.00-2.25 <0.1%, 2.25-2.50 0.1%, 2.50-2.75 0.1%, 2.75-3.00 0.4%
3.00-3.25 0.9%, 3.25-3.50 1.8%, 3.50-3.75 3.1%, 3.75-4.00 4.7%
4.00-4.25 6.3%, 4.25-4.50 8.4%, 4.50-4.75 14.2%, 4.75-5.00 22.8%
5.00-5.25 21.7%, 5.25-5.50 10.7%, 5.50-5.75 3.1%, >5.75 1.7%

[KenB]

I'm voting for 4.25 ± 0.25 M km².

[Killian]

If June Insolation average is low/average: 4.1+/-0.25M.

If June Insolation continues to trend higher for the rest of the month: 4.0+/-0.25M.

If June Insolation continues to trend higher for the rest of the month, is high in July, maybe a GAC or high exit via Fram: 3.85+/-0.25M.

[Richard Rathbone]

The June report from the Sea Ice Prediction network is now out.
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2022/june

The PIOMAS forecast model is the one predicting the least ice (3.41).
Median prediction is 4.57 which is slightly higher than this poll (about 4.3)

[Glen Koehler]

     31 of the 37 SIPN predictions have Sept 2022 ASI Extent below Sept. 2021, 1 essentially tied, and 5 above 2021. 

     The track record for SIPN predictions matching what actually happened is surprisingly weak.


"Looking back at the 14-year record of all June sea-ice outlooks (Figure 19), there is a striking lack of correspondence between the median of all outlooks and the actual September observed value: the two time-series correlate at only r = 0.21. Hamilton and Stroeve (2016) proposed that while we are able to forecast the forced changes in sea-ice extent (i.e., values close to the trend-line or the local average), predicting anomalous conditions such as in 2012 or 2013, remains extremely difficult. During years for which the September sea-ice extent departs significantly from the previous year's value, errors tend to be larger (Fig. 5 of Hamilton and Stroeve 2016), which supports this idea."  (bolding added)

     Equally striking is the flat trend in Sept. ASI Extent over the 14 years of 2007-2021.  Extent can hide declines in Area and Thickness.  But Volume trend which represents Area and Thickness is also flat since 2010.

[nadir]

If you move the orange points one year to the left you’ll find better correlation. It’s the human expectations or bias.

Also, there are very good predictions out there year after year (Slater, Dekker) and extremely bad ones (like that team from NASA) that only add noise.