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What will NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.50 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 5.25 and 5.75 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km²
2 (7.7%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km²
7 (26.9%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km²
8 (30.8%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km²
5 (19.2%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km²
2 (7.7%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km²
1 (3.8%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km²
1 (3.8%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km²
0 (0%)
Between 1.75 and 2.25 million km²
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km²
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closed: July 12, 2022, 07:52:37 AM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll  (Read 905 times)

Brigantine

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NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 10, 2022, 07:52:37 AM »
This is the NSIDC Poll for July{June poll here}
Not to be confused with the JAXA Poll {June, July}

These are the September averages in 2000-2021 (in million km²):

Year      Extent
2000        6.25
2001        6.73
2002        5.83
2003        6.12
2004        5.98
2005        5.50
2006        5.86
2007        4.27
2008        4.69
2009        5.26
2010        4.87
2011        4.56
2012        3.57
2013        5.21
2014        5.22
2015        4.62
2016        4.53
2017        4.82
2018        4.79
2019        4.36
2020        4.00
2021        4.92

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2022, 08:32:46 AM »
I stay with my June poll selection for the 4.25 ± 0.25 M km² bin.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Brigantine

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2022, 08:39:39 AM »
My vote: 4.50-5.00 (down 1 bin)

I think that dipole in late June caused pre-conditioning right in the area that needed it and changed the likely trajectory significantly downwards. But overall the chance of a very low minimum has also decreased.

Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.73           (-0.03)
Median                                4.77           (-0.09)
Highest Probability Density 4.85           (-0.14)
95% Confidence Range      3.60 - 5.59 (+0.19/-0.06)

<1.75 <0.01%, 1.75-2.00 <0.01%
2.00-2.25 <0.01%, 2.25-2.50 <0.1%, 2.50-2.75 0.1%, 2.75-3.00 0.2%
3.00-3.25 0.4%, 3.25-3.50 1.1%, 3.50-3.75 2.2%, 3.75-4.00 4.3%
4.00-4.25 7.4%, 4.25-4.50 12.6%, 4.50-4.75 19.6%, 4.75-5.00 22.8%
5.00-5.25 17.2%, 5.25-5.50 8.2%, 5.50-5.75 2.8%, >5.75 1.1%
« Last Edit: July 10, 2022, 08:56:54 AM by Brigantine »

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2022, 09:01:37 AM »
My mood swings lead me to 4.25-4.75 at this time.
Thanks for opening the poll, Brigantine.

KenB

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2022, 03:19:31 PM »
Sticking with 4.0 - 4.5 for July.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2022, 03:49:05 PM »
My vote is 4.5 to 5.00 million km2

My speculation is the continuing La Nina is keeping cool and cloudy conditons in the High Arctic allowing mayhem elsewhere.

I attach an estimate & table of the September NSIDC extent monthly average and a plume of projections of the daily minimum based on 10 year daily extent change in the last 10 years.

click images to enlarge
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Glen Koehler

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2022, 06:27:48 PM »
     Simple math as per Gero's graphs says to pick 4.5 - 5.0, but I picked 4.25-4.75 because the Extent numbers include areas of unusually low concentration and thus vulnerable to a rapid decline if late season conditions develop for compaction/export/melt.
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The Walrus

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2022, 08:35:12 PM »
The long term trend says ~4.5, so 4.25 - 4.75 would be the best bet.  However, the cold Arctic, sluggish spring melt, and now gero’s graph, prompted me to go one bin higher.  So 4.5 - 5.0 is my guess.  Apparently, many other thought so also.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2022, 09:31:03 PM by The Walrus »

Lord M Vader

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2022, 08:31:57 PM »
Yay, seems like I am the only one (yet..) here who believes in a high 4,75-5,25 Mn km2.. At least for now....

Brigantine

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Re: NSIDC 2022 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2022, 06:41:57 AM »
Yay, seems like I am the only one (yet..) here who believes in a high 4,75-5,25 Mn km2.. At least for now....

I think Icegod is with you, and I'm hot on your heels, just narrowly going for one bin lower. Though my true range is 3.60-5.59, more likely in the top half. But weather and drift still have plenty of opportunity to surprise us.

A lot more people are above me in the JAXA poll!

Poll closes very soon 70 minutes left
« Last Edit: July 12, 2022, 06:49:25 AM by Brigantine »