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What will NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
1 (2.8%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
8 (22.2%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
10 (27.8%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
5 (13.9%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
4 (11.1%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
1 (2.8%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
2 (5.6%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
4 (11.1%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (2.8%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 36

Voting closes: July 11, 2020, 12:07:29 AM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll  (Read 323 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2020, 12:07:29 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two ASI extent polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum [provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP)].
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2019 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71
2019             4.32

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gandul

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 12:46:11 AM »
My bet is 3.5 m km2 to 4.0 m km2, the second place is quite probable, a chance for the record too.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 07:22:00 AM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kiwichick16

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 07:54:25 AM »
September average  3 -  3.5  million sq  kms

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 02:32:03 PM »
I've taken down one bin to 3.75-4.25. Daring, but I think the current ice condition and forecast call for some daring.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 10:34:01 PM »
Same bin chosen than in June: 4.25 ± 0.25 M km²
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change