Casual 2021 melting season predictions

[uniquorn]

An interesting ice concentration forecast from nersc (ftp) this morning implying a very large 'Fram funnel' while hycom is still showing an unverifiable (at the moment) growing area of thinning ice around 85N 110

added polarview S1B of the rough area
added bathy (NOAA), very deep

[Paul]

An interesting ice concentration forecast from nersc (ftp) this morning implying a very large 'Fram funnel' while hycom is still showing an unverifiable (at the moment) growing area of thinning ice around 85N 110

Oh wow, that looks similar to 2013 and that ended up with a true hole right inside 85 degrees north. It does look quite odd mind so I guess we have to wait until we have clearer satalite images too see if that thinner area is real or not.

[Jim Hunt]

hycom is still showing an unverifiable (at the moment) growing area of thinning ice around 85N 110

Your Hycom map is from April?

Then I clicked it!

[Killian]

I think 2021 will be in line with the average-ish of the last 5 years. 3.8M ~ 4.5M km sq, with below 4M being the outlier portion of the prediction.

This assumes a good ice-retaining regime this melt season. If large Fram export is a thing through to Sept., the numbers shift downward a LOT, maybe 3.5~3.8. But since 2012, that's just not been happening.

[uniquorn]

Another interesting forecast from nersc cmems today. This model tends to exaggerate low concentration but 'kind of' gets the fracturing right. There may be a problem with that massive lift off in the Greenland Sea.

Meanwhile hycom's low thickness forecast at 85N100E persists. There is some additional shear in that area, perhaps different to the 'scaling or flaking' elsewhere.

[gerontocrat]

The last image from GFS's 10 day forecast

Do you believe it? Or is GFS doing its "jam tomorrow" trick?

click image to enlarge

[Aluminium]

The last image from GFS's 10 day forecast

Do you believe it? Or is GFS doing its "jam tomorrow" trick?

click image to enlarge

I don't see any obstacles but random number generation (10 day forecast) easily can be wrong.

[johnm33]

"interesting forecast from nersc cmems" looks like it's based mainly on wind, I suspect there's huge momentum to near surface water exiting Fram, so would expect more export than potrayed here, if not back to the drawing board.

[johnm33]

Looking at the slow build of a high aligned with the increasing tidal forcings towards the full moon [24^th] we should see some consolidation of the pack towards it's centre, lift off from Greenland and CAA, and export momentum through Fram of the top 70m carrying it's 'passenger' ice with it. Possibly some extra-ordinary melt due to warm air/insolation towards the pole showing most where the surface is 'stretched' out in the export current.
Depends on the weather but it could all look very different in 10 days time.

[Sepp]

<snip from main thread >The true is that expecting that the ASI Sept min be below 4.4M or above 5.0M km², is out of question, given the few days that remain on this melting season.

Seeing the current Bremen AMSR2 maps, I am not that sure of your lower bound. Basically all ice between 135 W clockwise to 135E looks very vulnerable up to 85N. If we get a "no weather" - event like last year it might survive, but even a "normal" storm might do big damage.

So values below 4.4 might be unlikely und unprecedented from the current starting point, but I would not rule them out.

[oren]

NSIDC daily area minimum will most likely be 8.23.2021, with a value of 3.389173 million square kilometers.

The 8.25 value is 3.501343 millions of square kilometers. We are now 112,170 kilometers above the minimum value.

This would be the earliest daily area minimum in the satellite record.



Bear witness to history.

Dude, this year you have outdone yourself with these absurd predictions which fail a week later. Cherrypicking and general trolling can lead oneself only so far, and as a rule require much more subtlety by the practitioner to be effective.

Bear witness to random noise.