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Siffy

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1150 on: August 12, 2014, 11:28:29 AM »
The fact that  the ice around the North Pole is now exceptionally thin for hundreds of kilometers in all directions suggests there are still more interesting times to  come before the end of the season.

Thin, but I'd say not quite thin enough.  There will be a huge volume loss, but I'm fairly confident we won't see an "ice free" north pole. 

I wasn't thinking we'd go quite that far, but there is a lot of ice in the Barents and north of that  in the Arctic that  is currently moving south at  10-20 km a day.  Eyeballing it  suggests about 500K km^2 that was open water at this time last year is now covered with some ice. Once it  gets into the Barents it is melting out very quickly. This suggests to me that we could see a late minimum as this ice continues to melt  out in late September.  As for the rest of the arctic I'd think that the ice that has gone south will leave lots of polynas and low extent  on the Atlantic side.

I find the idea of continued melting into late september to be exceptionally unlikely, it would have to all be bottom melt and where would this energy come from?


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1151 on: August 12, 2014, 01:21:53 PM »
In the Canadian Archipelago the part of ice that is visibly mobile gets bigger and bigger. A big part in the Parry Channel still does not show any movement, neither can I see any indication of MYI from the Basin entering and filling up the CAA.
Have a look at the "Crack" how the ice pack in the Central Basin is moving west, the shape of the islands imprinted into the edge. That is is moving as one piece, rare these days.

DavidR

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1152 on: August 12, 2014, 03:17:29 PM »
The fact that  the ice around the North Pole is now exceptionally thin for hundreds of kilometers in all directions suggests there are still more interesting times to  come before the end of the season.

Thin, but I'd say not quite thin enough.  There will be a huge volume loss, but I'm fairly confident we won't see an "ice free" north pole. 

I wasn't thinking we'd go quite that far, but there is a lot of ice in the Barents and north of that  in the Arctic that  is currently moving south at  10-20 km a day.  Eyeballing it  suggests about 500K km^2 that was open water at this time last year is now covered with some ice. Once it  gets into the Barents it is melting out very quickly. This suggests to me that we could see a late minimum as this ice continues to melt  out in late September.  As for the rest of the arctic I'd think that the ice that has gone south will leave lots of polynas and low extent  on the Atlantic side.

I find the idea of continued melting into late September to be exceptionally unlikely, it would have to all be bottom melt and where would this energy come from?


Siffy,
Insolation hasn't changed in millennia.  The question is where is the additional melt coming from? If the ice has drifted south into  areas that  are not normally sources of melt then I  have no problem describing this as anomolous melting.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1153 on: August 12, 2014, 04:36:34 PM »
I find the idea of continued melting into late september to be exceptionally unlikely, it would have to all be bottom melt and where would this energy come from?

Here's one recent eye witness report:

http://ciresblogs.colorado.edu/icebreaker/2014/08/11/blob-of-death/

Quote
The clouds block some sunlight, which cools the surface. However, these same clouds also trap thermal radiation and are the efficient means for transporting that heat aloft down towards the surface.

Hat tip to Andreas T.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1154 on: August 12, 2014, 06:31:43 PM »
I find the idea of continued melting into late september to be exceptionally unlikely, it would have to all be bottom melt and where would this energy come from?

Here's one recent eye witness report:

http://ciresblogs.colorado.edu/icebreaker/2014/08/11/blob-of-death/

Quote
The clouds block some sunlight, which cools the surface. However, these same clouds also trap thermal radiation and are the efficient means for transporting that heat aloft down towards the surface.

Hat tip to Andreas T.

18C at 400 meters!? that sounds astonishing.

While that won't transfer to the surface, as the article points out, it will put a "lid" on whatever region it reaches, and balance radiative loss.

That would mean more time for ocean heat to transfer to the ice. It will be fascinating to follow.
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Andreas T

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1155 on: August 12, 2014, 09:46:05 PM »
As I understand Matt Shupe the clouds do transfer heat to the surface because of their opaqueness which gives them high emissivity. The radiation balance between clouds and surface (which has low albedo at the long wavelengths involved) is dependent on temperatures. In this case warm air above near surface cold layer (inversion) means clouds are warmer than surface. So balance would be surface gains. The temperatures quoted are from radiosonde (weatherballoon) measurements they do on the Oden several times a day and show air moving in from a warm eastern siberia (Friv. will feel vindicated).
That may not continue so whether it affects September is another story.
It will have contributed to the melt in the ESS we see now.
Other observations from the Oden speak of older thick ice present among thinner stuff, it will be interesting to see if this survives, at the moment modis shows whiter crumbs among disintegrating slush.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1156 on: August 13, 2014, 07:30:06 AM »
Update 20140812.

Extent: -78k4 (+31k vs 2013, +1218k vs 2012)
Area: -46k2 (+207k vs 2013, +1124k vs 2012)

Today's decline in extent brings 2014 within a day's melt from 2013. As 2013 slowed down considerable around this day with several upticks, 2014 may well go below 2013 from here.
Regionally the extent declines were biggest in the CAB and CAA (both -20k). ESS continues but the rate seems to be slowing with -11k. Area declines are much smaller or even small increases. The exceptions are Kara (-18k) and CAA (-19k).

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -20.3                   -11.3                    -3.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -9.4                     6.0                   -14.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.2                     0.0                    -4.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -19.5                     5.3                    -8.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.1                     0.0                   -78.4

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.8                     1.3                    -2.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -17.6                     6.0                    -9.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.2                     0.0                    -2.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -19.3                     0.2                    -4.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.0                   -46.2


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1157 on: August 13, 2014, 07:42:26 AM »
Time to return to the ESS. Compared with a few days ago there are more blues in the region. The easterly winds seem to take less heat into the region which according to DMI's 2T temperatures is below freezing even during the day.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1158 on: August 13, 2014, 01:02:43 PM »
Warmish air from the continent blows over supposedly warm Laptev (about 5 oC, 1-9 range) and meets the ice edge which continues its remarkable retreat. Question is how much of that retreat is melt and how much is advection? The attached animation shows the advection is stronger, continuing a process that could be observed since the end of the winter.

Andreas T

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1159 on: August 13, 2014, 04:20:21 PM »
Time to return to the ESS. Compared with a few days ago there are more blues in the region. The easterly winds seem to take less heat into the region which according to DMI's 2T temperatures is below freezing even during the day.

the blue patch in the top right hand corner is unlikely to genuinely ice, this area has melted in July.http://1.usa.gov/1sSJ4Iw
 It also doesn't show in your animation posted today 01:02:43PM
« Last Edit: August 13, 2014, 04:33:50 PM by Andreas T »

ghoti

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1160 on: August 13, 2014, 04:36:45 PM »
This kind of "reappearing ice" seems to happen often. The southernmost areas of the CAA had major portions showing ice reappearing and disappearing long after they had been clear of ice and while shore temperatures were well above freezing.

Over the course of the melt season I guess it all comes out in the wash. It does make me wonder how huge the error bars really are for the end of season minimum ice extent and area.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1161 on: August 13, 2014, 04:41:07 PM »
Time to return to the ESS. Compared with a few days ago there are more blues in the region. The easterly winds seem to take less heat into the region which according to DMI's 2T temperatures is below freezing even during the day.

the blue patch in the top right hand corner is unlikely to genuinely ice, this area has melted in July.http://1.usa.gov/1sSJ4Iw
 It also doesn't show in your animation posted today 01:02:43

Well spotted. It is false ice, an artifact in the calculations form the Uni Hamburg. This one is filtered out and not counted as extent or area in my calculations. Also the false ice that can be seen on the shores is filtered out.

It is in the animation (as in the other maps), but the animation is slightly contrast enhanced to make movements better visible. The concentrations are so low it is hardly visble.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1162 on: August 14, 2014, 06:00:08 AM »
Update 20140813.

Extent: -75k6 (+67k vs 2013, +1211k vs 2012)
Area: -56k9 (+180k vs 2013, +1201k vs 2012)

Declines now mostly in the CAB region, followed at distance by Chukchi and Beaufort.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -34.2                    -7.1                    -2.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -9.0                    -0.8                     4.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    2.7                     0.0                    -3.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -4.1                   -10.5                   -10.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -75.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -40.1                    -7.8                    -1.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    5.1                     2.6                     0.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.8                     0.0                    -3.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.0                    -7.5                    -5.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -56.9


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1163 on: August 14, 2014, 06:38:45 AM »
Not too well visible in the numbers of the previous post is a big widening of the open water in Chukchi /Beaufort regions.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1164 on: August 14, 2014, 07:13:17 AM »
The drift to the "Victoria Channel". This exit from the Arctic is this year a popular alternative to the Fram Strait route. Some of the bigger floats in the central ice pack can be followed for a long time ever closer and closer to the end.

JMP

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1165 on: August 14, 2014, 07:13:45 AM »
Wipneus, 

Again in awe of your ability to track so much information consistently. The level of detail along with the persistant focus on maintaining the highest possible accuracy is utterly amazing.

Thank You.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1166 on: August 15, 2014, 07:31:45 AM »
Update 20140814.

Extent: -1k8 (+67k vs 2013, +1302k vs 2012)
Area: +35k1 (+206k vs 2013, +1306k vs 2012)

Minimal net extent decline and an uptick in area. The CAB is about the only region that drops in extent (mostly by extending the Laptev open water) , but at the same time its area increases. More increases can be seen in the Beaufort, as well as Barents and Greenlands Sea due to export of ice from the central pack into these seas.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -15.4                     6.3                    -1.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.1                     3.8                    10.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.6                     0.0                     1.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -8.9                     6.6                    -3.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                    -1.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   13.5                     7.7                    -0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.2                     1.4                     3.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.5                     0.0                     3.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.6                    20.0                    -1.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    35.1


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1167 on: August 15, 2014, 07:52:40 AM »
A cyclone, pulling in continental air,  over the remaining ice in the Kara sea is interesting to watch. Until now I don't see to much changes, but that can change. Any time now the North-East passage (proper) can be declared open.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2014, 05:49:55 PM by Wipneus »

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1168 on: August 15, 2014, 09:33:49 AM »
I have shown the expanding Laptev open water just a few days before. Not much has changed, the retreat of the ice edge continues at great speed. What strikes me is the last frame that has all the looks of double exposure or speed blur. Is the retreat that fast or is it an artifact from the upstream processing?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1169 on: August 15, 2014, 11:04:54 AM »
It appears to happen exclusively in positions with clouds over the ice. Would suspect that the algorithm uses the previously known positions and then applies some maximum change justified by the data - if there where no fresh data at all, it would just leave the edge where it is.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1170 on: August 16, 2014, 08:33:49 AM »
Update 20140815.

Extent: -21k3 (+82k vs 2013, +1310k vs 2012)
Area: -19k0 (+270k vs 2013, +1247k vs 2012)

Slow net extent and area declines. Regionally the drop is mostly in the CAB, with a smaller uptick in the Greenland Sea, perhaps an early indication of Fram transport.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -25.9                    -1.1                    -0.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -2.5                     1.7                    14.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.1                     0.0                     0.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.5                    -6.4                     0.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -21.3

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -25.7                     8.1                     0.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.5                     7.1                     7.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.4                     0.0                     0.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.3                   -14.9                    -0.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -19.0


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1171 on: August 16, 2014, 08:49:03 AM »
Region of the day is the Canadian Archipelago. A lot of ice will have to go yet for any of the North-West passages can be said to be open: there is significantly more ice than in 2013 when the route never really (or barely some may say) opened.
Other things to observe are the very wide crack between Ellesmere and the central ice pack and the lack of transport through Nares Strait (despite a favorable wind).

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1172 on: August 16, 2014, 09:19:43 AM »
The Beaufort Gyre is clearly visible in this animation. For a month now the ice cover has hardly changed thanks to transport from the Canadian section of the central ice pack.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2014, 08:40:15 AM by Wipneus »

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1173 on: August 17, 2014, 08:31:38 AM »
Update 20140816.

Extent: -90k5 (+79k vs 2013, +1268k vs 2012)
Area: -62k3 (+268k vs 2013, +1230k vs 2012)

Strong net declines today, perhaps in the next few days we can go below 2013 that had an uptick in the same period.  Regionally the extent drops are evenly distributed among ESS, CAB, Beaufort, Chukchi and CAA. The Beaufort is also the leader in area loss.

As side note, in case anybody wonders: the NE passage via the Vilkizky Strait is still not 100% open, low (~5%) ice still present. 
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -19.9                   -22.1                    -1.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.6                     1.9                     6.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.0                     0.0                    -7.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -14.5                   -19.6                   -14.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -90.5

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -4.6                    -7.7                    -0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -2.8                     1.0                     1.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.1                     0.0                    -6.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -13.9                   -22.1                    -7.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -62.3


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1174 on: August 17, 2014, 09:12:45 AM »
Eastern winds blowing in the Beaufort towards Chukchi may be the end of Chukchi ice cover.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1175 on: August 17, 2014, 03:06:31 PM »
When you look at the winds and the changes in ice cover in the Beaufort, it seems there is a lot of melt going on there, also.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1176 on: August 17, 2014, 04:29:34 PM »
Will Beaufort or ESS be more of a factor in dropping area/extent below 2013 levels?  Looks like Beaufort has a decisive edge for most of the next week.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1177 on: August 18, 2014, 06:14:23 AM »
Other things to observe are the very wide crack between Ellesmere and the central ice pack and the lack of transport through Nares Strait (despite a favorable wind).

Comparing the 15th and 16th, August  MODIS images it looks like the ice in the Nares Strait is moving south at about 30km a day and melting out fairly quickly as it moves.  Although the extent  isn't changing that  much the ice that  constitutes it certainly is and it's all coming out of the CAB as fast as it  can.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1178 on: August 18, 2014, 07:05:19 AM »
Update 20140817.

Extent: -73k3 (+33k vs 2013, +1242k vs 2012)
Area: +3k1 (+272k vs 2013, +1307k vs 2012)

Strong declines in extent, while net area changes have stalled. Most of the extent decline is in the Greenland Sea (-24k), followed by CAA and Beaufort (-15k and -14k). The CAB keeps increasing in Area, as does the ESS (+16k and +12k).

Images will follow later today.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -10.5                    -9.8                    -0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.1                     2.5                   -24.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.3                     0.0                    -3.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -14.7                   -14.0                    -1.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -73.3

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   15.8                    12.4                    -1.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    1.6                    -1.1                   -11.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.5                     0.0                    -2.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -8.9                   -10.6                     8.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                     3.1


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1179 on: August 18, 2014, 01:10:12 PM »
As region of the day we hi-light the East Siberian Sea.  Rather cold temperatures have stalled the decrease in area (and upped the concentration).

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1180 on: August 19, 2014, 06:36:56 AM »
Update 20140818.

Extent: -68k6 (-72k vs 2013, +1118k vs 2012)
Area: -6k4 (+114k vs 2013, +1321k vs 2012)

The drop in net extent brings 2014 below 2013 that had an uptick this day.Most of this is caused by the CAB and Greenland Sea. ESS, Beaufort and Kara had smaller declines.
By area (concentration) the CAA had an increase of +21k, small declines in other regions.

The NE passage proper is still "blocked" by low concentration ice (5-10%).

Again, images will be belated today.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -25.4                   -15.6                    -1.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -10.2                     5.7                   -18.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.6                     0.0                     1.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   11.9                   -12.6                    -2.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -68.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -9.2                    -9.0                    -1.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.5                    10.0                    -8.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.9                     0.0                     1.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   21.0                     0.2                    -2.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    -6.4


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1181 on: August 20, 2014, 06:41:52 AM »
Update 20140819.

Extent: -14k7 (-57k vs 2013, +1155k vs 2012)
Area: -91k0 (-0k vs 2013, +1214k vs 2012)

The net daily change area and extent numbers are a bit different than we got used to: strong drop in area but slow in extent.
The area declines are mostly in the ESS and CAB. Other regions are relatively quiet.  By extent the changes are small everywhere.

The NE passage proper ( by Vilizky Strait) is still not completely open, minimum ice concentration about 11%.

Images may follow later.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -5.3                    -6.1                     0.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.4                    -2.6                     7.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.5                     0.0                    -0.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.9                    -7.4                    -0.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -14.7

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -35.8                   -39.6                     0.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.8                    -5.6                     5.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.1                     0.0                    -0.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    2.7                    -9.4                    -4.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -91.0

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1182 on: August 20, 2014, 06:49:23 AM »
Chukchi is region of today. Air from the Pacific is coming from the south. I would expect it to be warm, but that has not resulted in large loss of ice yet.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1183 on: August 21, 2014, 06:17:14 AM »
Update 20140820.

Extent: -39k1 (-36k vs 2013, +1318k vs 2012)
Area: -69k9 (-14k vs 2013, +1278k vs 2012)

Area still declines faster than extent, totals stay near those in 2013. The ESS has the big drop in area: twice as much as the CAB (-38k and -19k) . Beaufort area has an uptick of +16k.

In Kara higher concentration ice (>20%) is now blocking the NE passage (proper by the Vilkizky Strait).
 
It is going to be a busy day for me, images may follow later.

You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -7.7                    -9.2                    -0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -4.6                     2.2                   -10.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.9                     0.0                    -6.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.7                     4.7                    -6.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -39.1

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -18.8                   -38.2                    -0.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -8.0                    -2.1                    -5.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    2.3                     0.0                    -3.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -9.8                    15.9                    -1.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -69.9


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1184 on: August 22, 2014, 06:04:17 AM »
Update 20140821.

Extent: -43k8 (+0k vs 2013, +1338k vs 2012)
Area: -6k9 (+62k vs 2013, +1289k vs 2012)

The drop in area seems to have stopped temporary(?). The ESS is the only region with a sizable drop (-14k). Extent dropped most in the ESS and CAB (-25k and 14k).

NE passage via Vilkizky strait still not completely open, min ice concentration about 4 %.

Images if posted, will be much later today again.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -13.7                   -25.1                    -0.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    1.2                     4.6                    -7.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.3                     0.0                     3.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.6                     3.7                    -3.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -43.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    6.4                   -13.7                    -0.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.5                     5.1                    -2.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.4                     0.0                     3.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.5                     2.0                    -3.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    -6.9


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1185 on: August 23, 2014, 08:05:26 AM »
Update 20140822.

Extent: -28k9 (+25k vs 2013, +1294k vs 2012)
Area: -32k0 (+121k vs 2013, +1256k vs 2012)

Moderate melting today, with most of it in the Central Arctic which is not uncommon at this day of the year. The large drop of ice area in the ESS seems to have halted again.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -24.4                    -3.7                    -1.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    1.3                     4.8                    12.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.9                     0.0                    -4.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.3                    -0.4                    -7.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -28.9

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -54.0                    12.3                    -0.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    8.8                    10.3                    11.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.7                     0.0                    -3.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.3                    -8.5                    -5.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -32.0


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1186 on: August 23, 2014, 10:55:05 AM »
Two regions in one image today. The first is the Kara Sea. For the first time this year there is a North-East Passage with zero (by Uni Hamburgs data) sea ice concentration through the Vilkizky Strait. The southern winds will probably keep it open for a few days.
Second is Barents Sea. Ice extent is anomalous high, the NSIDC sea ice extent ( see the 2014 extent and area thread) anomaly is about +2.5 sigma. This of course all because sea ice is exiting the Arctic Basin through the Victoria Channel. The strong northern winds caused by a cyclone over the Barents Sea will speed this up.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1187 on: August 23, 2014, 11:05:17 AM »
In this 10 day animation it looks like it is now ice on the run from the Laptev Bite making for the Victoria exit. Fram Strait transport looks full of potential but does not convince me yet.

(may need a click to start animating).

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1188 on: August 23, 2014, 11:33:39 AM »
Amazing  amount  of area clearing  out  above Franz Joseph. The season remains intriguing.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1189 on: August 23, 2014, 03:28:50 PM »
Given the warmth of the Barents, how much of the ice exiting through the Victoria Channel will survive this melt season?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1190 on: August 24, 2014, 06:03:43 AM »
In this 10 day animation it looks like it is now ice on the run from the Laptev Bite making for the Victoria exit. Fram Strait transport looks full of potential but does not convince me yet.

The ice north of Franz Joseph is looking pretty sick.  Even if we don't pass 2013 numbers, I'm not sure we could call ice in that state a "recovery".
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1191 on: August 24, 2014, 08:42:01 AM »
In this 10 day animation it looks like it is now ice on the run from the Laptev Bite making for the Victoria exit. Fram Strait transport looks full of potential but does not convince me yet.

The ice north of Franz Joseph is looking pretty sick.  Even if we don't pass 2013 numbers, I'm not sure we could call ice in that state a "recovery".

In 2013 it was open ocean.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1192 on: August 24, 2014, 08:52:04 AM »
Update 20140823.

Extent: -25k6 (+27k vs 2013, +1342k vs 2012)
Area: -72k4 (+30k vs 2013, +1206k vs 2012)

Totals keep tracking 2013 closely. Remarkable today is the really big drop in area (concentration) in the ESS. The CAB keeps declining in extent and area  with some smaller numbers, while the Greenland Sea experiences a big increase in ice measures.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -19.3                   -12.4                     1.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -10.6                    -0.7                    30.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.5                     0.0                    -1.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.8                    -5.9                    -3.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -25.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -10.1                   -47.6                     0.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -6.7                   -11.7                    16.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.6                     0.0                    -0.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -4.8                    -4.6                    -3.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -72.4


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1193 on: August 24, 2014, 10:11:26 AM »
Eeast Siberian Sea is region of the day. Winds blow from the west over the remaining ice but have a source from the warm continent, enhancing melt.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1194 on: August 25, 2014, 09:15:30 AM »
Update 20140824.

Extent: -54k8 (+6k vs 2013, +1377k vs 2012)
Area: -44k6 (+51k vs 2013, +1230k vs 2012)

Totals still seem to track 2013 closely. Regionally the changes are small with the CAB leading.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -12.8                    -7.7                    -0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -6.3                    -4.2                    -8.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.9                     0.0                     1.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.6                    -6.2                    -1.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -54.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -16.8                    -6.4                    -0.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -9.5                     2.4                     3.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.5                     0.0                     0.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -6.9                    -7.5                    -0.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -44.6


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1195 on: August 25, 2014, 12:53:37 PM »
The daily image is of the Beaufort. In 2013 Beaufort ice cover minimized in the first half of August, in 2014 the slow decline continues.


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1196 on: August 26, 2014, 12:59:18 PM »
Update 20140825.

Extent: -25k8 (+9k vs 2013, +1395k vs 2012)
Area: -14k3 (+101k vs 2013, +1318k vs 2012)

Net declines proceed slowly. Looking regionally that goes well for extent, but area has some larger changes: the ESS increases by +34k, while CAB and CAA drop ( -19k and -12k).
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -10.9                    -6.5                    -0.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.6                    -2.1                    -6.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.6                     0.0                     0.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -10.2                     6.7                     0.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.1                     0.0                   -25.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -19.0                    33.9                    -0.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.9                    -6.7                    -6.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.4                     0.0                     0.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -12.3                    -1.9                    -0.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.1                     0.0                   -14.3


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1197 on: August 26, 2014, 01:08:04 PM »
Today's images of Kara show why you better be prepared for sea ice when sailing the NE route.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1198 on: August 27, 2014, 06:18:38 AM »
Update 20140826.

Extent: -70k7 (-51k vs 2013, +1332k vs 2012)
Area: -114k4 (+8k vs 2013, +1280k vs 2012)

An area century today, originating in the CAB and ESS. The ESS had a big uptick yesterday, so this looks like a correction. Other regions have small changes.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -14.0                   -24.4                     0.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.1                    -0.2                    -6.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.9                     0.0                    -4.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -14.2                    -4.2                    -1.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -70.7

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -43.3                   -58.7                     0.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    4.5                    -0.1                    -4.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.8                     0.0                    -2.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.4                    -8.2                     0.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                  -114.4


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1199 on: August 27, 2014, 06:34:39 AM »
Whatever the winds, the Laptev region sees the prominent "Bite" growing still every day.