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Rob Dekker

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3000 on: June 29, 2017, 09:07:30 AM »
A-team and Wipneus, Thank you guys, these are some awesome animations !
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3001 on: June 30, 2017, 08:20:52 AM »
A century in extent, in area only one half. Hudson and Baffin still account for half of the extent decrease.

Update 20170629.

Extent: -100.6 (-18k vs 2016, -575k vs 2015, -54k vs 2014, -660k vs 2013, +56k vs 2012)
Area: -52.9 (+10k vs 2016, -579k vs 2015, -161k vs 2014, -612k vs 2013, -167k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -1.9                    -5.7                    -9.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.3                    -7.5                     0.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -16.0                     0.5                   -39.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.6                   -11.5                    -8.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.2                     0.2                  -100.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   43.4                   -21.4                   -13.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    7.3                    -4.7                    -4.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -14.5                     0.3                   -22.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -15.3                    -1.4                    -7.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.1                   -52.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3002 on: June 30, 2017, 08:24:32 AM »
The Beaufort gyre compared with 2016. Reduced block size is apparent. The closeness of the main pack is another difference.

Needs a click to start.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3003 on: June 30, 2017, 08:48:17 AM »
Wipneus: is it possible to remove the numbers from St Lawrence and Okhotsk from the total number as both these areas are bone dry? In this case the upticks were too small to impact the century break but another time... Maybe overkill but have to ask...

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3004 on: June 30, 2017, 11:23:45 AM »
LMV: I checked. St.Lawrence has been below 1k for the last month and the daily changes are less than 0.5k.

Okhotsk is much larger but that appears to be real ice. The last week the changes are comparable to StL. But even now there is still some ice hanging on.

SO I probably going to work on other aspects where I see more return on efforts.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3005 on: June 30, 2017, 05:33:42 PM »
The Beaufort gyre compared with 2016. Reduced block size is apparent. The closeness of the main pack is another difference.

Needs a click to start.

Kind of forgot how bad the Beaufort looked last year. By comparison, it is much stronger this year. Maybe we can dodge the bullet after all.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3006 on: June 30, 2017, 05:35:23 PM »
A century in extent, in area only one half. Hudson and Baffin still account for half of the extent decrease.

Update 20170629.

Extent: -100.6 (-18k vs 2016, -575k vs 2015, -54k vs 2014, -660k vs 2013, +56k vs 2012)
Area: -52.9 (+10k vs 2016, -579k vs 2015, -161k vs 2014, -612k vs 2013, -167k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -1.9                    -5.7                    -9.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.3                    -7.5                     0.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -16.0                     0.5                   -39.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.6                   -11.5                    -8.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.2                     0.2                  -100.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   43.4                   -21.4                   -13.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    7.3                    -4.7                    -4.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -14.5                     0.3                   -22.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -15.3                    -1.4                    -7.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.1                   -52.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Looking at the changes in area for the CAB and ESS, there is clearly a lot of compaction going on.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3007 on: June 30, 2017, 05:43:58 PM »
The Beaufort gyre compared with 2016. Reduced block size is apparent. The closeness of the main pack is another difference.

Needs a click to start.

Kind of forgot how bad the Beaufort looked last year. By comparison, it is much stronger this year. Maybe we can dodge the bullet after all.

i'll use every opportunity to repeat that even though extent is higher this year, volume is  lower and the total amount of ice to be melted ( energy needed to achieve that ) is significantly lower than last year. i forgot where it was but someone just posted an image to illustrate how fast the ice is going for good once the melting has started in serious.

i often used the example but will gladly repeat:

a frozen lake with 90% ice coverage can get ice free overnight once the ice is very thin while a lake with 50% ice cover but the ice is let's says 10-20cm thick, will take a few days in any other case than a foen-storm or similar wind/warmth events.

we shall all face a sudden death of extent ins SOME areas, mostly depending on weather and wind patterns, where what happens we cannot predict, so it's even possible that the beaufort gets spared but then the opposing melting friendly weather would find place in another corner of the arctic which  at the end of the season will produce similar results.

only thing that can make this season better than expected/feared would be a total lack of autumn stroms and/or other extreme ice-conserving weather.

let's see, just what caught my eyes once again is the widely spread error to take greater extent as an equivalent to healthier and/or more ice mass. IMO not true anymore starting late 2015
« Last Edit: June 30, 2017, 07:04:46 PM by magnamentis »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3008 on: June 30, 2017, 06:56:04 PM »
AND there is a lot of zombie-ice around in the Atlantic. It's there, providing for bigger extent and area numbers, but in fact it's already doomed. It just won't survive for many weeks. If you substract that ice, the numbers will become really preoccupying IMO.
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3009 on: July 01, 2017, 11:09:16 AM »
End of the stream of centuries in extent. Area even has an uptick. Most of that caused by apparent concentration increases in the Greenland and Laptev regions. 

Update 20170630.

Extent: -60.0 (+10k vs 2016, -569k vs 2015, -16k vs 2014, -597k vs 2013, +43k vs 2012)
Area: +23.8 (+40k vs 2016, -470k vs 2015, -71k vs 2014, -409k vs 2013, -67k vs 2012)
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.4                   -13.1                     6.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.8                    -7.0                     8.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -17.3                    -0.4                   -20.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    2.1                   -12.6                    -4.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.1                     0.7                   -60.0

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   12.2                   -20.8                    39.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   20.1                   -12.2                    45.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -26.2                    -0.3                   -18.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   15.7                   -24.3                    -7.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.4                    23.8



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3010 on: July 01, 2017, 11:12:37 AM »
Animation of Kara. Watch the retreat of ice in the Gulf of the Ob river (upper right) nicely visible thanks to the high resolution of the UH 3.125km sea ice concentration map. Melt in the Barents Sea looks convincing.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3011 on: July 02, 2017, 10:01:31 AM »
Wipneus,
Regarding this update :
Quote
Extent: -60.0 (+10k vs 2016, -569k vs 2015, -16k vs 2014, -597k vs 2013, +43k vs 2012)
Area: +23.8 (+40k vs 2016, -470k vs 2015, -71k vs 2014, -409k vs 2013, -67k vs 2012)
 

This suggests that in 2012 'area' was higher than in 2017, and 'extent' in 2012 was lower than 2017. Naturally that suggests that in 2012 'compactness' (area/extent) in 2012 must have been higher than in 2017.

Yet your graphs here
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
suggest that 2017 'compactness' is much higher than in 2012.
In fact, 'compactness' from the graph suggests that 2017 has the highest compactness of them all (except for 2014).

What gives ?
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3012 on: July 02, 2017, 10:05:01 AM »
Centuries, bot extent and area, again. 2017 extent is a small fraction below both 2012 and 2016 (compared by day/month, compared day of the year the differences would be bigger).

Update 20170701.

Extent: -116.4 (-53k vs 2016, -621k vs 2015, -35k vs 2014, -572k vs 2013, -29k vs 2012)
Area: -117.9 (+24k vs 2016, -571k vs 2015, -165k vs 2014, -490k vs 2013, -110k vs 2012)
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -2.3                   -12.2                     1.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -19.3                    -1.7                     0.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -19.2                    -0.2                   -33.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -10.5                   -10.4                    -7.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.6                    -0.8                  -116.4

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -12.9                    -9.9                     6.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -28.0                    -1.7                     7.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -22.4                    -0.1                   -22.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -16.3                    -8.4                    -8.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.4                    -0.5                  -117.9



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3013 on: July 02, 2017, 10:11:17 AM »

What gives ?

Something strange with that graph. Thanks, I will need to look into that.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3014 on: July 02, 2017, 10:20:09 AM »
Delta map and animation of the ESS/Laptev regions attached. The ESS-Laptev bite seems in development.

The animation needs a click to start.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3015 on: July 02, 2017, 10:48:47 AM »

Yet your graphs here
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
suggest that 2017 'compactness' is much higher than in 2012.
In fact, 'compactness' from the graph suggests that 2017 has the highest compactness of them all (except for 2014).

What gives ?

Uh no. 2017 is the thick "black" line, clearly below 2012 ("cyan") and 2014 (unnamed) and in a "tangle" with the other years.

I agree, the graph is getting more confusing after adding new lines every year with colors that must contrast less and less. I usually zoom into the region of interest.
What does not help either is that there are two 2012 lines, one for the AMSR2 data (August and September) and one for the SSMIS data (full year).

Rob Dekker

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3016 on: July 03, 2017, 06:40:37 AM »
Thanks Wipneus.
Yes. I got confused between the 3 graphs. AMSR2 indeed shows 2012 as higher concentration than 2017, and for NSIDC SSMIS it is the other way around.

I remember a discussion about this last year, and I even dug into the algorithms and sources, but could not figure out why they show a difference in ice concentration.

It is almost like that clock shop where none of the clocks show the same time, so you never know what time it is....
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3017 on: July 03, 2017, 08:17:17 AM »
Can't keep up the extent centuries, perhaps because lack of ice in the Hudson slows the decline there. Area is down everywhere and scores a century.

Update 20170702.

Extent: -89.9 (-6k vs 2016, -633k vs 2015, -45k vs 2014, -483k vs 2013, -74k vs 2012)
Area: -153.7 (+4k vs 2016, -617k vs 2015, -281k vs 2014, -493k vs 2013, -220k vs 2012)
 

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.1                   -27.2                    -1.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    0.8                    -1.5                    -6.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -11.9                    -0.1                   -14.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -13.5                    -6.5                    -8.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.4                   -89.9

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -30.3                   -21.8                   -18.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.6                    -4.5                   -31.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -10.2                    -0.1                    -9.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -13.8                    -1.7                   -11.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.3                  -153.7


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3018 on: July 03, 2017, 08:24:07 AM »
The NW passage got cleared a little further in the last  few days.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3019 on: July 03, 2017, 08:30:03 AM »
The area around Wrangel seems to have taken a hit.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3020 on: July 04, 2017, 08:17:36 AM »
Extent and area losses continue. Area stronger than extent and many regions contribute.

Update 20170703.

Extent: -91.4 (-13k vs 2016, -646k vs 2015, -108k vs 2014, -443k vs 2013, -70k vs 2012)
Area: -134.1 (-50k vs 2016, -659k vs 2015, -397k vs 2014, -416k vs 2013, -223k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -3.6                    -9.7                   -20.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -19.9                    -3.1                   -12.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    7.8                     0.1                   -10.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -12.1                    -2.6                    -5.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.7                     0.1                   -91.4

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -23.9                   -31.1                   -31.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -26.0                    -0.8                    -6.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    7.6                     0.1                    -8.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -19.1                    10.8                    -6.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.6                     0.1                  -134.1


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3021 on: July 05, 2017, 11:51:06 AM »
Centuries, both for extent and area.

Update 20170704.

Extent: -116.0 (-16k vs 2016, -682k vs 2015, -204k vs 2014, -354k vs 2013, -81k vs 2012)
Area: -100.0 (-58k vs 2016, -616k vs 2015, -466k vs 2014, -392k vs 2013, -153k vs 2012)

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -3.8                    -9.8                     5.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -22.2                    -8.2                   -25.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -17.0                     0.0                   -14.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -17.2                     0.1                    -3.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.2                    -0.1                  -116.0

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    2.6                   -36.3                    13.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -19.9                     8.4                   -23.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -14.9                     0.0                    -3.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -17.8                    -4.3                    -4.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.2                    -0.1                  -100.0



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.


Cid_Yama

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3022 on: July 05, 2017, 02:20:59 PM »
So we are lowest on both parameters, as of 7/4/2017. 
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3023 on: July 05, 2017, 07:08:20 PM »
So we are lowest on both parameters, as of 7/4/2017.

Yes, remember though that for July 2012 I rely on UH SSMIS data. August and September 2012 the AMSR2 data is available that I will use then.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3024 on: July 05, 2017, 09:05:48 PM »
So we are lowest on both parameters, as of 7/4/2017.

Hopefully this will help end the fantasy that 2017 has a lot of "catching up" to do to have a chance at a record this year. Area, extent, and volume are all at record lows or close to it by all measures I can find. I think the fact that there was no May or June "Cliff" has lead people to miss the fact that the year started way ahead of others - and has posted steady declines.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3025 on: July 06, 2017, 09:34:46 AM »
Slow down in extent to report , and even an uptick in area. Suddenly "only" third lowest place, temporary?


Update 20170705.

Extent: -36.0 (+60k vs 2016, -637k vs 2015, -168k vs 2014, -282k vs 2013, +77k vs 2012)
Area: +35.6 (+109k vs 2016, -472k vs 2015, -336k vs 2014, -360k vs 2013, +93k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    7.8                   -13.8                     4.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   15.5                     3.2                    -5.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -8.6                     0.0                   -22.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -11.9                     0.7                    -6.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.1                     0.1                   -36.0

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   24.3                     6.2                    10.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   18.3                     1.9                     0.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -8.1                     0.0                   -17.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -7.3                     5.3                     1.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    35.6



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

greatdying2

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3026 on: July 06, 2017, 09:47:10 AM »
Slow down in extent to report , and even an uptick in area. Suddenly "only" third lowest place, temporary?
I think so. Looking at the regions, several in the midst of crashing happened to blip up on the same day. The CAB is starting to become rather curious though...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3027 on: July 06, 2017, 10:16:05 AM »
I believe the CAB positive anomaly is explained by the "Atlantic" area next to Svalbard, which behaves more like the Barents than the CAB. It's not just extent but also the positive PIOMAS anomaly in that area. I believe this anomaly actually enables 2017 further drops later when the Atlantic finally wakes up (assuming it does of course).

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3028 on: July 07, 2017, 06:49:18 AM »
Same as previous: small extent drop and an area increase.

Update 20170706.

Extent: -41.7 (+111k vs 2016, -590k vs 2015, -105k vs 2014, -290k vs 2013, +146k vs 2012)
Area: +31.0 (+360k vs 2016, -307k vs 2015, -145k vs 2014, -281k vs 2013, +231k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.6                     0.9                   -18.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    1.1                   -10.9                    10.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.2                    -0.2                    -7.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.2                   -11.2                    -8.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.5                    -0.3                   -41.7

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   19.9                    24.3                   -21.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    8.8                   -15.4                     0.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    8.5                    -0.2                    -9.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   20.9                    -0.3                    -4.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.6                    -0.2                    31.0


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3029 on: July 08, 2017, 06:21:24 PM »
Area scored a decent drop again, still a third lowest behind 2012 and 2017.

Update 20170707.

Extent: -80.7 (+97k vs 2016, -552k vs 2015, -107k vs 2014, -275k vs 2013, +127k vs 2012)
Area: -138.9 (+307k vs 2016, -274k vs 2015, -170k vs 2014, -331k vs 2013, +145k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.3                    -4.8                   -20.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -17.5                    -4.1                     6.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -11.4                     0.0                    -2.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -19.4                    -3.8                    -2.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.3                    -0.1                   -80.7

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -6.6                   -20.4                   -19.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -26.9                    -4.7                    -2.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -9.6                     0.0                     0.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -12.5                   -16.2                   -20.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.0                  -138.9



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3030 on: July 09, 2017, 09:16:18 AM »
Slow declines, much of it in the (south) Greenland Sea region.

Update 20170708.

Extent: -65.8 (+115k vs 2016, -532k vs 2015, -70k vs 2014, -197k vs 2013, +148k vs 2012)
Area: -50.3 (+320k vs 2016, -191k vs 2015, -126k vs 2014, -235k vs 2013, +185k vs 2012)

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    4.3                    -6.9                    -6.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -11.9                     1.1                   -33.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -8.2                     0.0                    -0.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.3                    -4.7                    -1.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.3                     0.1                   -65.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    7.6                   -12.6                    -8.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -16.2                    12.7                   -22.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -5.7                     0.0                    -0.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   12.8                    -7.6                   -10.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.2                     0.1                   -50.3

Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3031 on: July 09, 2017, 06:35:32 PM »
Fast ice in the Laptev Sea is mibilized.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3032 on: July 10, 2017, 08:28:37 AM »
Continuing area and extent drops. Third place is in danger being lost to 2014.

Update 20170709.

Extent: -67.3 (+131k vs 2016, -528k vs 2015, -10k vs 2014, -137k vs 2013, +323k vs 2012)
Area: -123.9 (+257k vs 2016, -254k vs 2015, -129k vs 2014, -232k vs 2013, +237k vs 2012)

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -4.7                   -15.4                    -2.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -26.9                    -1.2                   -17.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.6                     0.0                    -8.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    5.0                     3.9                    -3.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.3                     0.1                   -67.3

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -24.7                   -42.8                    -9.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -32.4                   -10.1                   -19.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.1                     0.0                    -5.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   13.8                     0.7                     5.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.2                     0.1                  -123.9



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3033 on: July 11, 2017, 07:21:13 AM »
I just want to thank you.  A trusted voice in a world where facts and data rarely get a hearing without being 'spun'.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3034 on: July 11, 2017, 08:18:19 AM »
Area drop exceeds that of extent, much of it in the Chukchi/ESS regions.

Update 20170710.

Extent: -88.6 (+109k vs 2016, -488k vs 2015, +10k vs 2014, -126k vs 2013, +410k vs 2012)
Area: -146.8 (+162k vs 2016, -242k vs 2015, -231k vs 2014, -242k vs 2013, +221k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):

Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -1.5                   -17.1                   -18.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -19.1                    -6.7                    -5.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.1                     0.0                    -9.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -6.2                    -3.7                    -0.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.1                     0.2                   -88.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -7.7                   -40.3                   -13.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.6                   -10.5                   -16.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -7.5                     0.0                    -6.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -19.4                     1.1                   -18.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.2                  -146.8


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3035 on: July 12, 2017, 08:25:57 AM »
Back in the centuries. Ice in the Kara/Laptev/ESS is taking a particular hard hit.

Update 20170711.

Extent: -113.2 (+119k vs 2016, -455k vs 2015, -10k vs 2014, -152k vs 2013, +391k vs 2012)
Area: -105.9 (+196k vs 2016, -251k vs 2015, -278k vs 2014, -185k vs 2013, +271k vs 2012)

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -2.0                   -19.3                   -27.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -38.6                     0.9                     5.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -17.7                     0.0                    -6.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.7                    -7.1                    -3.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.2                     0.0                  -113.2

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -27.4                    -7.3                   -11.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -33.2                     3.0                     2.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -15.6                     0.0                    -5.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    7.1                   -23.8                     5.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.2                     0.1                  -105.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3036 on: July 13, 2017, 08:18:37 AM »
Mighty extent drop in the ESS is the most remarkable number today.

Update 20170712.

Extent: -141.4 (+100k vs 2016, -535k vs 2015, -44k vs 2014, -139k vs 2013, +275k vs 2012)
Area: -50.5 (+200k vs 2016, -224k vs 2015, -231k vs 2014, -157k vs 2013, +195k vs 2012)
 

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -9.6                   -81.9                    -3.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.1                    -1.2                   -17.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -7.0                     0.0                     2.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -8.7                    -4.5                    -9.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.3                     0.2                  -141.4

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   11.4                   -25.9                   -13.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    6.7                     1.5                   -10.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -11.5                     0.0                     4.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -6.2                     3.1                    -9.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.2                     0.2                   -50.5



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

oren

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3037 on: July 13, 2017, 08:47:03 AM »
The ESS goes poof, 133k in 4 days. Lack of MYI suddenly showing.

greatdying2

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3038 on: July 13, 2017, 10:48:21 AM »
Impressive cliff... bigger (steeper for longer) than anything else on this graph?

The 2012 cliff was certainly longer, tho perhaps not as steep (and certainly not as early). Will this plunge to bottom or stall out?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3039 on: July 13, 2017, 12:15:48 PM »
The ESS goes poof, 133k in 4 days. Lack of MYI suddenly showing.
probably far from over too. Big offshore steamhose for a few days. remnant of the vapourstream that gave 3/4 of a meter of rain to japan in six hours and record floods to china.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3040 on: July 13, 2017, 05:02:57 PM »
If you look at the large swaths of red adjacent to blues just to the north, the ESS drop in extent was due to both melt and compaction.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3041 on: July 13, 2017, 05:06:18 PM »
Impressive cliff... bigger (steeper for longer) than anything else on this graph?

The 2012 cliff was certainly longer, tho perhaps not as steep (and certainly not as early). Will this plunge to bottom or stall out?

It may stall but the ESS will be ice free by the end of the melt season.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3042 on: July 13, 2017, 05:53:57 PM »
The disappearing ice in the ESS animated.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3043 on: July 14, 2017, 08:59:21 AM »
Continuing ice cover losses in the Eurasian coastal regions (perhaps except Laptev). The ice around Wrangel island is particular affected.

Update 20170713.

Extent: -142.8 (+85k vs 2016, -531k vs 2015, -154k vs 2014, -209k vs 2013, +162k vs 2012)
Area: -102.5 (+138k vs 2016, -265k vs 2015, -253k vs 2014, -148k vs 2013, +215k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):

Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.9                   -47.2                     4.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -34.8                     2.1                   -12.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -8.5                    -0.1                    -8.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -15.6                     2.2                   -26.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.2                     0.1                  -142.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    8.2                   -42.3                    -9.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -35.3                     8.1                     4.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -10.7                    -0.1                    -9.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -10.4                     9.4                   -14.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.0                  -102.5



Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3044 on: July 14, 2017, 12:55:58 PM »
Animated Canadian Archipelago. Some ice in the main channel (Barrow Strait) has "mobilized".

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3045 on: July 14, 2017, 01:52:58 PM »
Thanks, great animation, Wipneus, as always! The developing arch is also slightly visible through the clouds on a MODIS image of 13th July. But only AMSR2 can show the temporal development.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3046 on: July 15, 2017, 09:16:28 AM »
Back to sub-century declines. Most of it in the Kara region, Chukchi adds some to yesterday's retreat.

Update 20170714.

Extent: -97.7 (+85k vs 2016, -553k vs 2015, -218k vs 2014, -199k vs 2013, +151k vs 2012)
Area: -74.6 (+193k vs 2016, -367k vs 2015, -317k vs 2014, -130k vs 2013, +218k vs 2012)

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    1.2                    -6.4                    -9.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -27.7                    -9.7                    -0.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -13.2                     0.0                    -9.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.6                    -1.1                   -18.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.1                     0.1                   -97.7

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -12.8                   -10.4                   -15.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -12.1                   -17.0                    -3.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -7.4                     0.0                    -6.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    7.7                     7.0                    -4.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.1                   -74.6


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3047 on: July 16, 2017, 09:14:01 AM »
The decline of the ice in Kara continues, more than half of the total extent drop is due to Kara. Further the concentration losses along the Chukchi/Beaufort ice edge can be mentioned.

Update 20170715.

Extent: -92.1 (+76k vs 2016, -566k vs 2015, -251k vs 2014, -166k vs 2013, +126k vs 2012)
Area: -119.0 (+207k vs 2016, -303k vs 2015, -401k vs 2014, -216k vs 2013, +62k vs 2012)
 
The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -9.5                     9.4                   -14.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -50.3                   -11.9                    -4.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -4.9                     0.0                    -5.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.1                     0.8                     1.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.7                     0.0                   -92.1

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -23.2                    -6.7                   -15.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -22.4                   -11.9                    20.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.6                     0.0                    -6.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    8.1                   -24.1                   -32.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.6                    -0.2                  -119.0


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 10:06:33 AM by Wipneus »

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3048 on: July 16, 2017, 09:50:11 AM »
I think it is worth mentioning, most of the CAB ice which intruded into the Barentsz is now gone, and the Atlantic margin is well on its way to retreat back to the line it occupied in 2016.  In short, the heat is back on in the Barentzs.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #3049 on: July 16, 2017, 12:05:45 PM »
Wow the Chukchi sea decay...is the "soup" just melting in situ? ?