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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #450 on: September 02, 2013, 03:35:03 PM »
Update 20130901.

Extent: -7k4 (+1293k vs 2012)
Area: -14k9 (+1394k vs 2012)

Same situation as yesterday: overall slow with some melt on the Siberian side (ESS, Laptev, Kara) and some increase in the CAA and Beaufort. The CAB has loses area, but no net extent loss.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.6                   -10.0                    -6.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.3                     0.2                     3.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -5.1                     0.0                    -0.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   12.6                     4.8                    -1.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                    -7.4

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -22.7                     0.7                    -5.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -2.9                     0.1                    14.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.7                     0.0                    -0.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    5.0                     1.3                    -1.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -14.9


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #451 on: September 02, 2013, 03:49:18 PM »
Region of the day are the Svernya Zemly islands. It seems to sail the NE passage now, least ice will be found going around the islands. The continental coast seems to be blocked right now.

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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #452 on: September 03, 2013, 04:58:57 PM »
Update 20130902.

Extent: -48k7 (+1341k vs 2012)
Area: -7k1 (+1445k vs 2012)

Decreases in extent of CAB, CAA and ESS. CAB area on the contrary increased.

UPDATE: there is a triangular part missing (filled in by my program with values from yesterday). There maybe an update later tonight. See:
https://sites.google.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20130902_res3.125_pyres.nc.png

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -18.1                    -8.3                    -3.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.1                    -0.6                    -6.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    6.2                     0.0                     0.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -14.3                     1.1                    -2.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -48.7

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   20.1                    -0.2                     1.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.3                    -0.4                   -23.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.9                     0.0                     0.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -11.7                     2.7                     0.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    -7.1
« Last Edit: September 03, 2013, 05:15:55 PM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #453 on: September 03, 2013, 05:11:32 PM »
Looking at the area of the Polar Polynya that is, somewhat surprisingly, growing. Is the Barents finally going to bite?

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« Last Edit: September 03, 2013, 05:32:04 PM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #454 on: September 03, 2013, 05:31:30 PM »
And the color coded concentration map.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #455 on: September 04, 2013, 08:00:06 AM »
Update 20130903.

Extent: -66k3 (+1382k vs 2012)
Area: -62k1 (+1450k vs 2012)

Todays numbers don't show much signs of refreeze yet. The decline continues in the CAB and the Siberian seas. The CAA is a bit of a "swing region", but the strong declines in both extent and area are remarkable.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -10.6                   -19.5                    -8.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -4.2                     0.0                     0.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    6.4                     0.0                    -1.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -26.9                     1.9                    -3.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -66.3

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -5.0                   -20.5                   -10.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -6.5                     0.0                     3.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    1.7                     0.0                    -0.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -25.5                     2.9                    -1.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -62.1


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #456 on: September 04, 2013, 08:14:12 AM »
Region of the day is East Siberian Sea section. Ice is decreasing strongly, but only the fringe regions. The interior is quite especially compared with the Barents Bite.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #457 on: September 04, 2013, 08:24:58 AM »
Here is the color coded map of the region.

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jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #458 on: September 04, 2013, 08:47:44 AM »
Region of the day is East Siberian Sea section. Ice is decreasing strongly, but only the fringe regions. The interior is quite especially compared with the Barents Bite.

Jim Hunt posted an interesting image of the Barent's side over on the blog. It is looking like the "slush" we were seeing may be melting out partially as we both anticipated. leaving isolated larger rounded floes behind.

The appearance yesterday north and slightly east of Svalbard is very striking:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c04.2013246.terra.250m&vectors=coast

If you look at the area that is connecting with the huge polyna, you can see wispy banks of small floes on the southern edge, a feature which is reasonably consistent down towards the main pack.  If you examine the main pack proper, even there, you will see that there are areas which opened up, and which even now resemble what the 'bite' area looked like a couple of weeks ago.

Interesting melt season indeed.  It may be cold enough, but visually looking at it, it doesn't seem to be inclined to refreeze *yet*.  Can't seem to make up its mind, m'thinks.
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #459 on: September 05, 2013, 07:32:03 AM »
Update 20130904.

Extent: -25k8 (+1431k vs 2012)
Area: +16k4 (+1534k vs 2012)

The melt is slower than ever with most of it on the Siberian side. Yet none of the regions is showing an extent increase.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    1.3                    -7.1                    -2.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.3                     0.0                    -1.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -6.4                     0.0                    -1.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.3                    -2.6                     0.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.1                     0.0                   -25.8

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   13.6                    -9.7                    -1.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.2                     0.0                     6.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.2                     0.0                    -0.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    8.0                     8.4                     1.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.1                     0.0                    16.4


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #460 on: September 05, 2013, 07:59:30 AM »
The Polar Polynya has shrunk, yet the ice in the "Barentsz Bite" seem still to be falling apart.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #461 on: September 06, 2013, 07:10:06 AM »
Update 20130905.

Extent: -16k4 (+1422k vs 2012)
Area: -25k8 (+1514k vs 2012)

If not for the Greenland sea, the numbers would have hardly moved.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.7                    -5.8                    -0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    0.7                     0.0                   -15.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.6                     0.0                    -0.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    4.0                     0.7                     2.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -16.4

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    7.1                    -4.0                    -0.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.6                     0.0                   -19.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.3                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.0                    -7.5                     1.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -25.8


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #462 on: September 06, 2013, 07:19:59 AM »
Highlight of the day is the Greenland sea (with sea ice). Today there are more reds than blues, I think it has to do with better atmospheric conditions (less clouds and vapor) making the ice edges sharper.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #463 on: September 06, 2013, 07:26:48 AM »
And the color coded concentration map.

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Alistair

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #464 on: September 06, 2013, 08:33:56 AM »
Update 20130905.
If not for the Greenland sea, the numbers would have hardly moved.
 

In the past week the Greenland Sea has had a late season influx of ice from the CAB which I assume has then put it in contact with the last of the warmth to melt it.

Prior to this past week it seems that hardly any ice has flowed into the Fram for almost a month?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #465 on: September 06, 2013, 09:12:42 AM »
May be the animation helps.
I expect the Fram transport and Greenland sea extent to increase anytime soon. But visually I cannot be sure that anything has changed yet.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #466 on: September 06, 2013, 03:31:05 PM »
Did everyone see the dinosaur fall of the cliff  :)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #467 on: September 06, 2013, 03:58:07 PM »
Did everyone see the dinosaur fall of the cliff  :)

Looks like a Chinese style dragon to me.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #468 on: September 06, 2013, 07:23:37 PM »
Day 26?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #469 on: September 07, 2013, 06:55:00 AM »
                   -7.4                    -1.4                  1454.4
Update 20130906.

Extent: -26k2 (+1396k vs 2012)
Area: -17k0 (+1454k vs 2012)

Greenland Sea continues the decline that I noticed yesterday. The CAB extent went down and that of CAA increased.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -14.6                    -5.1                    -2.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    5.0                    -0.1                   -20.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.0                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   10.9                     0.1                     1.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.2                     0.0                   -26.2

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -2.2                    -3.7                    -1.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    6.2                    -0.1                   -17.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.0                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.6                     3.0                     0.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.0                   -17.0


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #470 on: September 07, 2013, 07:07:30 AM »
Area of the Barentsz / Kara "Bite". Strong winds from the south melt/compact and drive the ice. I would expect the polynya to be compacted away.

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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #471 on: September 07, 2013, 07:12:00 AM »
And a color coded concentration map.

(attached, log in)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #472 on: September 08, 2013, 08:11:54 AM »
Update 20130907.

Extent: -24k9 (+1437k vs 2012)
Area: -25k3 (+1404k vs 2012)

CAB decreased considerable, both in extent and area.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -24.8                    -4.6                    -4.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.9                    -0.1                    11.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.2                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    5.1                    -4.4                    -0.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -24.9

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -38.6                    -5.1                    -2.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    0.4                    -0.1                     9.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.2                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   11.8                    -1.4                     1.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -25.3


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #473 on: September 08, 2013, 08:39:33 AM »
Just because, here is the delta over the first September week with the most intense melting. The Polar Polynya has grown, more smaller polynya's are born and the ice edge retreated considerably.

Today's color coded concentration map is included, both images can be seen if you are logged in.

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Polynya is moving toward the NP
« Reply #474 on: September 09, 2013, 05:49:23 AM »
The polynya now is less than 200 km from the NP, and likely only 100-150km from combining with the area of broken ice pack around the NP. Weather is turning colder, but the prevailing winds will continue to push water from east into the pack and toward the pole. The current forecast shows a moderate LP cell will briefly push ice toward the Fram, but then as a HP cell sits over the areas in the CAB toward the East Siberian, the wind will again push into the pack.

Over the next weeK: Will the polynya compact away? Will the area around the NP refreeze before the two weak areas in the pack combine? Or will the edge of the pack recede enough to combine with the polynya, and keep shifting toward the NP? Conservatively we should expect not a lot of change from the current status, until refreezing really takes over.

But the pack is especially mobile, and shifting a lot right now (at the end of the melt season). The movement over the last couple of weeks has been striking. Even out along 90W and 85N, there are some big cracks in the pack continuing to open up and widening (as can be seen in the satellite images).

The melt this year has certainly been interesting, and the season is going to end that way.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #475 on: September 09, 2013, 07:09:13 AM »
Update 20130908.

Extent: -13k7 (+1420k vs 2012)
Area: -11k1 (+1430k vs 2012)

The CAB continues to decline. The highly variable Greenland Sea went up and the equally variable CAA went down.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -15.3                    -3.6                    -2.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.3                     0.5                    20.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.9                     0.0                     1.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -13.3                    -3.3                    -2.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -13.7

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -20.0                    -4.0                    -1.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.7                     0.3                    23.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.5                     0.0                     1.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -12.3                     0.4                    -2.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -11.1


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #476 on: September 09, 2013, 07:22:39 AM »
As Paul noticed, the Polar Polynya is moving closer to the NP. Today it moved especially fast as seen on the 1 day difference map.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #477 on: September 09, 2013, 07:50:07 AM »
A look at NE Greenland. I still don't see much increase of the Fram Strait transport. The ice fasted on Belgica Bank looks shattered.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #478 on: September 09, 2013, 12:49:46 PM »
Wipneus,

I've been tracking that region since on august 14th the fast ice broke loose and crumbled. I tracked a 30x60 km chunk that drifted east at about 5 km/day. Would be interesting to compare this years "throughput" with other years: is this one of the resons so much thick ice is left his year? And if so, what does the lack of Fram Straight transport mean for North Atlantic climate?


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #479 on: September 09, 2013, 03:08:19 PM »
Would be interesting to compare this years "throughput" with other years:

For Uni Hamburgs AMSR2 3.125km analysis, we have to wait when/if they will make data for 2012 available. In the mean time there are maps from Bremen University.





There is no doubt that the reduced Fram export  has contributed to the higher amount of total Arctic sea ice in 2013 and the low amount in the Greenland Sea.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #480 on: September 09, 2013, 03:40:41 PM »
Thanks Wipneus,

Yes, that's what i meant.

What is immediately evident from these two pictures is the much worse condition of the ice above 80N, above 82N there are even holes in the ice (polynea they are called i believe). If winds turns favorable for export to restart that would mean very portable ice, and lots of surface area for the wind to grasp on to. That in turn would lead to a rapid "regrowth" of the Greenland sea, but much slower regrowth in the arctic basin north of Greenland. It seems that this interesting summer is going to be followed by an even more interesting autumn.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #481 on: September 09, 2013, 03:48:39 PM »
And what is this area of luke warm water across the Greenland Sea? No wonder the ice melts so quickly? The spot SW of Spitsbergen is 10 degrees warmer than normal? Did an underwater volcano erupt there?

LOL, look at this
(wattsupwiththat) /2013/08/02/hot-times-near-svalbard-volcanic-range-discovered/[/url]
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 11:48:07 AM by oren »

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #483 on: September 09, 2013, 06:14:45 PM »
That article was good, Vergent. There has been a lot of this "ice cover grew by 60%" delusion, not just in the Torygraph and the Daily Fail. There's a complete failure to understand what extent is, let alone the regression to the mean. Sorry, I'm feeling a bit ranty right now, having seen more idiot comments about the growth Antarctica sea ice. These people just want to believe what makes them feel comfortable and superior, and I won't derail this thread any longer. Grrr.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #484 on: September 09, 2013, 10:08:22 PM »
LarsB I've been looking at that area trying to figure out whats occurring for 2 years. Look at the zoomable bathymetric  over at arcticio and there seems to be a waterfall dropping off the shelf thereabouts which I'm assuming [until someone comes up with a better idea] creates  vortices which interfere with one another and thus expose the warmer layers of AW below.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #485 on: September 09, 2013, 10:11:37 PM »
Looking at today's polar MODIS:  Cloud cover is down a bit at the pole compared to the last fer days and it really looks like the Polar Polynya has not only moved substantially closer to the pole as Wipneus has noted and shown, but that it has really opened up to the Barentsz byte.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013252.terra.1km
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #486 on: September 10, 2013, 05:12:35 AM »
And what is this area of luke warm water across the Greenland Sea? No wonder the ice melts so quickly? The spot SW of Spitsbergen is 10 degrees warmer than normal? Did an underwater volcano erupt there?

LOL, look at this...

Not. Even. Close.

The amount of heat required to raise the temps off Greenland dwarfs the output of that range. I think the long exposure of sea surface there may have some interesting long term effects.  Lost fast ice will be replaced by ~ 2m thick FYI, which may lead to faster break up next spring. This presumes it will freeze over; weather may interfere, transporting weak ice out before it has a chance to get established. It will be interesting to watch.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #487 on: September 10, 2013, 08:05:27 AM »
Update 20130909.

Extent: -58k6 (+1305k vs 2012)
Area: -83k6 (+1361k vs 2012)

Large declines for the time of year. The CAB, CAA and Greenland Sea substantially. All other regions contribute.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -10.7                    -4.8                    -3.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -6.1                     0.0                    -9.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.1                     0.0                    -1.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -16.2                    -2.0                    -3.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                   -58.6

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -40.7                    -3.0                    -1.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -6.7                     0.1                   -16.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.7                     0.0                    -1.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -9.7                     0.6                    -3.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -83.6


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #488 on: September 10, 2013, 08:27:59 AM »
The area of the Polar Polynya and Bartentsz is still the most interesting region. The movement of the polynya is still strongly polewards and the smaller ones are growing.
For orientation, the cross marks the North Pole. The width of the Polar Polynya is about 125km.

(images attached, to see them you should log in) 

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #489 on: September 10, 2013, 05:09:36 PM »
I wonder, if the clouds which previously slowed the melt, are now moderating in the other direction, and extending it?

This kind of drop may also illustrate the weaken nature of the ice.  We have area, we have extent, but lower volume and even less coherence in the pack.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #490 on: September 10, 2013, 06:10:40 PM »
2012 did continue the decline till mid September (say the 16th). It is a bit of speculation whether  2013 will continue longer:

The most simplistic explanation is that since there is so much more extent and area, there is more room for melt also at lower latitudes.
That does not explain the continuing strong melt in the Atlantic section of the CAB, there is compared with 2012 much less ice present.
A third factor is the Greenland Sea, at the same time last year it was past the seasonal minimum. Now area and extent are far lower and only jump a bit up and down since beginning of August.

Here is a map with the extent differences 2012-2013 as seen by AMSR2, processed by Jaxa.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #491 on: September 10, 2013, 06:52:54 PM »
2012 did continue the decline till mid September (say the 16th). It is a bit of speculation whether  2013 will continue longer:

The most simplistic explanation is that since there is so much more extent and area, there is more room for melt also at lower latitudes.
That does not explain the continuing strong melt in the Atlantic section of the CAB, there is compared with 2012 much less ice present.
A third factor is the Greenland Sea, at the same time last year it was past the seasonal minimum. Now area and extent are far lower and only jump a bit up and down since beginning of August.

Here is a map with the extent differences 2012-2013 as seen by AMSR2, processed by Jaxa. ...

I wish we had better data on water temps and currents.  A fundamental problem with buoys is, they are sitting on ice, and stop giving us data when it's gone :-\

Inflow of Atlantic water is the only source I can think of for the heat required to produce 80K (!) drops so late. There is a lot of heat in the Barents, which was open all season. I am open to other suggestions.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #492 on: September 10, 2013, 08:35:32 PM »
Quote
The most simplistic explanation is that since there is so much more extent and area, there is more room for melt also at lower latitudes.

Yes, look at your regional graphs and when refreeze started last year in those lower latitude regions.  They reached zero earlier and then sat flat for weeks.  Unless the water is considerably colder there this year or winter comes early one would assume melting to continue. 

The ESS doesn't start showing new ice until the second week of October.  The CAA the first week of October.  The Beaufort mid-October.

My question of the moment is whether we'll see early extent increases in the CAB or will it be fill-in freezing early and growth later.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #493 on: September 11, 2013, 07:04:24 AM »
Update 20130910.

Extent: +7k3 (+1303k vs 2012)
Area: +24k6 (+1273k vs 2012)

Despite a small net uptick the distance with 2012 is less than it has been for a week.
Today the small decline of the CAB was offset by sea ice increases in the Greenland Sea and CAA.   

You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -13.4                    -0.6                    -1.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -2.1                    -0.3                    10.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.4                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    9.0                     2.3                    -1.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                     7.3

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -2.8                    -1.1                    -0.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.5                    -0.2                    15.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.0                     0.0                     0.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    8.3                     3.6                    -0.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    24.6


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #494 on: September 11, 2013, 07:29:39 AM »
Images of Barentsz Bite area. The Polar Polynya is shrinking, while the smaller ones are growing. The ice separating them from open ocean is now in places no more than 25km wide, the "pixel" size in NSIDC and CT images.

(log in to see the images)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #495 on: September 12, 2013, 06:55:34 AM »
Update 20130911.

Extent: +6k7 (+1358k vs 2012)
Area: +36k9 (+1354k vs 2012)

So we are near the start of the freezing season. A very big area increase in the CAB is an indication. An increase of extent in the Greenland sea is another factor. In other regions melt continues slowly.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    9.6                    -6.6                    -0.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -5.8                     0.0                    16.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    3.4                     0.0                     0.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -4.3                    -5.9                    -0.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.0                     0.0                     6.7

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   39.8                    -6.3                     0.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.2                     0.0                    14.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    2.4                     0.0                     0.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.8                    -4.6                    -0.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                    36.9


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #496 on: September 12, 2013, 07:27:16 AM »
Because we are at, or very near at, minimum ice, here is an overview of the remaining pack.

In the Barents Bite section, ice increasing and the polynya closing. Apart from that, melting is occurring along the ice edge from the Beaufort to the Laptev Sea. The Parry Channle in the Canadian Archipelago is clearing. Finally there is no indication that the Fram Starit export is taking up.

(log in to see attached image)
« Last Edit: September 12, 2013, 08:20:59 AM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #497 on: September 12, 2013, 08:17:16 AM »
I have been looking at this patch of low concentration ice, situated halfway Svalbard and the NP.
It developed in the beginning of August and has not moved or changed appearance much since.

(image grey levels slightly enhanced)

Neven

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #498 on: September 12, 2013, 11:28:18 AM »
Yet another hole that hasn't had the time to fully develop.  :)
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jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #499 on: September 12, 2013, 06:47:53 PM »
Yet another hole that hasn't had the time to fully develop.  :)
Remove the May/June pause (~3 weeks of slow melt) and it all (the weak, dispersed areas) disappears. Slow spring did save the ice, along with increased cloud cover overall, seems.
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