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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #800 on: June 11, 2014, 08:34:55 AM »
Region with most of the decline is the Greenland Sea. With no import through the Fram Strait, in situ melting causes melt not just on the edges but all over the pack.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #801 on: June 11, 2014, 09:17:42 AM »
Clear view (in 90GHz microwave band) of the central ice pack. Low concentration area's may indicate the development of one or two "Barents bites".

(click for animation)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #802 on: June 11, 2014, 08:09:54 PM »
That's a huge one day loss of area in the Arctic Basin.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #803 on: June 12, 2014, 08:07:43 AM »
Update 20140611.

Extent: -59k3 (-410k vs 2013)
Area: -18k4 (-306k vs 2013)

Extent in Hudson, Baffin and Greendland Sea decline, like yesterday but less aggressive. Chukchi and Barents Seas have a similar decline. Laptev and Kara show increases, `the big polynya in Laptev and the many smaller ones in Kara did get a bit smaller.

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.8                    -2.9                    10.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   11.0                   -17.7                   -15.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -10.5                     0.4                   -23.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.5                     1.1                   -10.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -1.3                    -1.1                   -59.3

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    1.7                    -9.6                    22.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   15.3                   -23.8                   -12.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -14.4                     0.2                     1.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    2.7                     2.0                    -4.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.2                    -0.7                   -18.4



Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #804 on: June 12, 2014, 08:13:54 AM »
Delta map of Laptev and Kara shows the shrinking polynya.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #805 on: June 12, 2014, 08:54:15 AM »
In this animation of the east corner of the Beaufort Sea, the gyre is visible. For some reason the ice in the Amundsen Gulf wants to join, leaving a vast open water.

(click for that animation to start)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #806 on: June 12, 2014, 11:54:55 AM »
The small area loss makes utterly no sense to me.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #807 on: June 12, 2014, 12:13:30 PM »
The small area loss makes utterly no sense to me.

Especially Hudson Bay, it actually increased a bit? It hit 80° on the eastern shores yesterday.  It's still very warm there with light southeast winds pushing the warm air right into the bay.

Current conditions
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=4&extents=50.488302,-172.089844,72.893802,-130.960937&density=1
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #808 on: June 12, 2014, 01:00:40 PM »
The small area loss makes utterly no sense to me.

There's been a modest storm in the area. A modicum of divergence as a result?
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #809 on: June 12, 2014, 01:04:20 PM »
How about low temps because of lingering snow on the coast?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #810 on: June 12, 2014, 02:16:33 PM »
The area figure in Hudson is probably far too low as a result of melt ponds. Either freeze (when its cold) or drainage (when its warm) will increase the number. My guess it is the latter.
Extent did decrease substantially.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #811 on: June 12, 2014, 02:32:49 PM »
The small area loss makes utterly no sense to me.

Looking at the animated maps, especially the Central Arctic one from a few posts back, shows very clearly that a lot of the "darker" pixels are being affected by cloud.  You can see the swirls quite clearly.  That will of course affect area, but not extent since it's nowhere near the 15% threshold. There's very little melt ponding on the surface yet in the central basin. 

Basically, the measurements are extremely noisy and we can't read much into day-on-day changes. Same every year.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #812 on: June 13, 2014, 07:44:52 AM »
Update 20140612.

The lead with 2013 is getting bigger.

Extent: -64k0 (-455k vs 2013)
Area: -77k5 (-345k vs 2013)

Baffin dominates the declines, both in extent and area today. The Hudson Bay repeats the pattern of yesterday, a decline in extent but the area increased. The ice in the Barents Sea decreased, but increases in Kara and Laptev caused by the shrinking polynya.
 

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    3.8                     3.1                     4.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   11.0                   -11.5                    -5.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -45.6                    -0.5                    -8.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.2                    -0.9                    -7.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -3.3                    -1.5                   -64.0

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    9.3                     5.0                    -8.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    5.6                    -6.3                    -6.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -76.3                    -0.4                    12.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    3.7                    -0.7                   -10.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -3.0                    -0.9                   -77.5


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #813 on: June 13, 2014, 08:06:50 AM »
Image says more than numbers, here are Hudson and Bafing again.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #814 on: June 13, 2014, 08:29:52 AM »
Animation of Chukchi and Bering Seas, steadily declining. The darkening of the Chaunskaya Bay, North East Siberia is remarkable, the rivers that are flowing into it are relatively minor.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #815 on: June 13, 2014, 07:43:03 PM »
Thanks for keeping on with this work Wipneus.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #816 on: June 14, 2014, 07:07:56 AM »
Update 20140613.

Extent: -59k3 (-457k vs 2013)
Area: -61k8 (-353k vs 2013)

Today's extent decline can be almost all attributed to Hudson and Baffin Bays. Some watchers may be relieved that also area in Hudson is decreasing. The ice in the Greenland sea expanded somewhat, and ice that went far into the Barents Sea has found its melting place.
There is more but, wait for the image and/or animation of the day.

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.7                    -6.5                    -4.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    1.5                   -10.6                    18.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -20.0                    -0.3                   -33.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.2                    -2.5                     3.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.8                    -0.7                   -59.3

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   14.6                    -9.0                    -5.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.7                   -15.7                    15.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -5.3                    -0.1                   -45.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -14.0                    -3.9                     2.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.8                    -0.3                   -61.8


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #817 on: June 14, 2014, 07:18:21 AM »
Image of the day shows the East Siberian and Latev Seas. The big polynya separating the central ice pack and the landfast ice is still going strong. What I notice further that water is appearing on the coast: the fast ice is in the process of becoming unfasted.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #818 on: June 14, 2014, 07:28:04 AM »
The ice north of Greenland keeps going to the Fram Strait, but does not enter it. What a bit of favorable wind could do here...

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #819 on: June 14, 2014, 07:53:57 AM »
That's one thing the anomalous Greenlan high was doing in the 2007 to 2012 summers - with a high over Greenland southerly winds developed down the Fram Strait.

The southerly extent of ice down the coast of Greenland is looking rather limited when compared to recent years.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #820 on: June 14, 2014, 06:15:05 PM »
Doesn't all the ice that flows past but not out the Fram this time of year end up melting in the Barents Sea? Is there really a net difference in export based on the route?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #821 on: June 14, 2014, 06:22:18 PM »
Doesn't all the ice that flows past but not out the Fram this time of year end up melting in the Barents Sea? Is there really a net difference in export based on the route?

I guess this is somewhat better for the preservation of the now-a-bit-larger amount of second year ice than the straight route through Fram.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #822 on: June 14, 2014, 06:25:36 PM »
Doesn't all the ice that flows past but not out the Fram this time of year end up melting in the Barents Sea? Is there really a net difference in export based on the route?

Indeed.  I think we're seeing a real change in ice motion this year.  Used to be, the vast majority of melt-by-export was through the Fram Strait.  Now we're seeing a lot of ice export on the OPPOSITE side of Svalbard.
Trivia question: what's the name of the Strait between Svalbard and Franz Joseph?  Olga Strait.  We'll be talking more about Olga in the future, I think.  I hear she's a real hottie.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #823 on: June 14, 2014, 06:46:00 PM »
Could it be that Arctic isn't anymore capable to form a permanent high pressure area with the ice cracking all over the place? This would mean that lows feeding of the open water would disperse the remaining ice more evenly than previously (f.e. 2012). And thus late season losses might start to be more aggressive than previously.  The large blocking high between Europe and Greenland likely prevents atmospheric incursions of warm air to arctic here, but what happens elsewhere and with ocean currents is another matter. Has someone checked where the Gulf Stream currently goes? Would it be much more to the west than usual? Umm. I'm getting nowhere with this reasoning, so I might just as well go with the long time trend (sigmoidal or exp) with my guesses. 
at:
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/html/produits/psy4qv2/welcome_en.jsp?nom=psy4qv2_20140614_23540&zone=at0 it would look like there's north going current west of Iceland, the map though cuts right there so can't tell what's going on more north. Anyway Norway coast seems to have the surface current from north currently. Not that the temperatures there are particularly abnormal. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/Norway.html
« Last Edit: June 14, 2014, 07:01:10 PM by Pmt111500 »

Frivolousz21

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #824 on: June 14, 2014, 11:20:57 PM »
Doesn't all the ice that flows past but not out the Fram this time of year end up melting in the Barents Sea? Is there really a net difference in export based on the route?


Yes big time.

You can see it watching the ice concentration in motion.  There are multiple outlets now and as soon as they cross about 80N it melts out abruptly.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #825 on: June 14, 2014, 11:40:05 PM »
  "I hear she's a real hottie."

That's a Good One:-).  I've wondered why the ice in that strait haven't been able to melt out in the last 1-2 weeks, but I didn't fully pay attention to the export from further North, just feeding the strait With more and more. So With that as background I don't mind Olga being such a hottie :P.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #826 on: June 15, 2014, 08:45:57 AM »
Update 20140614.

Extent: -35k3 (-389k vs 2013)
Area: -41k5 (-222k vs 2013)

Slowest net figures in days, but on regional scale the Hudson breakdown continues. Nearby Baffin does not follow and has a (short?) rebound. Some ice has passed through the Fram Strait, but melt in the southern parts of the Greenland Sea more than compensates for that. In the CAB the first "micro-polynya" are visible, single 3.125 wide "pixels" that are below 15% cover. Last year at this date, these polynya with more and bigger, later forming a distinctive Barents bite.


The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.1                     1.0                     5.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -6.1                    -7.9                   -10.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   15.6                     0.0                   -22.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.4                    -1.5                    -2.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -3.4                     0.5                   -35.3

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    1.0                   -14.5                     6.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -25.4                    -2.5                    -0.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   39.7                     0.0                   -31.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -4.2                    -2.5                    -5.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -3.1                     0.7                   -41.5


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #827 on: June 15, 2014, 09:05:54 AM »
Here is a color code concentration map of the ESS/Laptev region. The melt of the fast ice near the coast is clearly visible.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #828 on: June 15, 2014, 09:19:24 AM »
Yesterday the Olga Strait was mentioned (never knew Olga). Here is the sequence, some but not much is passing there now.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #829 on: June 15, 2014, 09:43:29 AM »
And Fram Strait seems to be little active too?
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #830 on: June 15, 2014, 02:13:00 PM »
Trivia question: what's the name of the Strait between Svalbard and Franz Joseph?  Olga Strait.  We'll be talking more about Olga in the future, I think.  I hear she's a real hottie.

Actually Olga Strait (Olgastretet) is a strait within Svalbard:



I did a bit of googling but could not find any name for the strait between Svalbard and Franz Joseph.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #831 on: June 15, 2014, 02:42:11 PM »
Trivia question: what's the name of the Strait between Svalbard and Franz Joseph?  Olga Strait.  We'll be talking more about Olga in the future, I think.  I hear she's a real hottie.

Actually Olga Strait (Olgastretet) is a strait within Svalbard:



I did a bit of googling but could not find any name for the strait between Svalbard and Franz Joseph.

Thanks for the research!  I, too, could not find a name on any map.  The mis-identification of "Olga" was from a google search leading to a 2011 entry on Neven's blog. 
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/07/2011-fram-strait-animation.html 
(update for July 27th).  Neven may wish to correct the record there.

 Meanwhile, perhaps we can collectively suggest a name to whatever body makes such names official.  "Neven Strait" perhaps?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #832 on: June 16, 2014, 07:01:21 AM »
Update 20140615.

Extent: -117k1 (-462k vs 2013)
Area: -145k6 (-296k vs 2013)

Centuries for the net figures.  Most of the decline is in Hudson and Baffin Bay's.  Barents is "best of the rest", smaller declines in Laptev and Chukchi, while the ESS increased somewhat.
Beaufort has been very quit this season so far, shows a small decline today.

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.1                     8.7                    -7.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    1.9                   -17.5                    -3.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -50.1                     0.1                   -34.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.7                    -6.7                    -7.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -3.2                     0.3                  -117.1

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    9.2                     7.0                   -18.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    4.3                   -10.9                    -9.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -40.3                     0.0                   -66.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.6                   -12.5                    -4.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -1.7                     0.2                  -145.6


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #833 on: June 16, 2014, 07:23:02 AM »
The day the fast ice in the East Siberian Sea cracked..

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #834 on: June 16, 2014, 07:44:30 AM »
Region of the day is Canadian Archipelago. It is not that exiting there: open water is slowly entering from the Alaskan and the Baffin sides, the ice concentration in the southern branches is dropping fast, but the central ice looks strong enough except for a polynya between Cornwallis and Devon Islands.   

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #835 on: June 16, 2014, 08:31:46 AM »
Meanwhile, perhaps we can collectively suggest a name to whatever body makes such names official.  "Neven Strait" perhaps?

Well, I'll be damned. So that Strait isn't called Olga, after all, eh?

How about Franz Victoria Strait? I mean the stuff below it is called the Franz Victoria Trough, and the same goes for the St Anna Trough, which is also called the St Anna Strait at the surface.

If I've understood correctly. See here for instance.

And this:

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #837 on: June 16, 2014, 01:44:27 PM »
How about Franz Victoria Strait? I mean the stuff below it is called the Franz Victoria Trough, and the same goes for the St Anna Trough, which is also called the St Anna Strait at the surface.

"Franz Victoria Strait" produces quite a few google hits:

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22franz+victoria+strait%22

It seems a good name for the main section between Franz Josef Land and Victoria Island.

At the western end there is Kvitøya Through (Kvitøyrenna), so the section between Kvitøya and Storøya could be called Kvitøya Strait. On the other side of Storøya is Storøya Sound (Storøysundet).

This still leaves the section between Victoria Island and Kvitøya unnamed.

After some unfruitfull time googling this name-topic of this "strait" I came across a name, "The Svalbard-Franz Joseph Land Gate" in a New work at the University of Bergen, Norway.

"Svalbard/Franz Joseph Land passage" has been used a few times too:

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22svalbard%2Ffranz+josef+land+passage%22

And there is also "Northern Barents Sea Opening (NBSO)":

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22northern+barents+sea+opening+(NBSO)%22

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #838 on: June 17, 2014, 07:46:07 AM »
Update 20140616.

Extent: -44k5 (-441k vs 2013)
Area: +6k4 (-178k vs 2013)

So also Uni Hamburgs AMSR2 sea ice concentration can give an uptick in area in mid-June. It does show how volatile the day-to-day area numbers are, but is also an indication that the June cliff is quite weak. Reasons for the uptick is complicated, most is caused by an increase in ice area in the CAB, but also in the Baffin bay area did not change as much as to be expected. On the other hand Kara and ESS shows a substantial decline.
In extent it is still Hudson and Baffin Bays that decline most, while the extent in Barents grew.



The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.3                    -5.9                    -1.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.7                    12.2                    -9.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -16.3                     0.1                   -24.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.0                     2.9                     4.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.8                    -0.3                   -44.5

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   57.6                   -17.2                    -4.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -30.2                     7.1                    -0.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.4                     0.1                   -20.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.3                     7.0                     5.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.5                    -0.3                     6.4


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #839 on: June 17, 2014, 08:28:58 AM »
Image of the day are the Barents and Kara regions.  There is not much substance in the large increase in ice in the Barents Sea, it is ice to goes from a little below 15% concentration to slightly above. In Kara the changes are more wind-driven, with the balance a decrease in ice cover.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #840 on: June 17, 2014, 08:58:01 AM »
Wipneus, considering the current weather conditions, I'm having a very hard time believing those numbers, even with your explanation.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #841 on: June 18, 2014, 07:50:40 AM »
Update 20140617.

Extent: +2k9 (-380k vs 2013)
Area: +45k0 (-19k vs 2013)

Upticks both in extent and area today. Area has now lost almost all the lead it had on 2013. The agreement of different algorithms, different resolutions different microwave frequencies and different satellites indicates the reality of the unusual situation.  The least one can say about it, is that a June cliff happening now is more and more unlikely.

About the regions, Hudson is the only one where decline and melt are going strong. The ice in Barents Sea and ESS is extending. In Kara and the CAB extent drops a small bit, but the ice area has a big uptick. For the melting fans, the decline in extent and area in Beaufort may give some comfort.


The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -1.0                     9.3                     0.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.6                     9.5                     5.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    6.0                    -0.1                   -18.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.3                    -6.7                    -0.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    1.5                     0.2                     2.9

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   28.5                    10.9                    10.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   27.1                    18.1                    -3.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -8.5                    -0.1                   -22.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.0                   -15.3                    -1.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    1.4                     0.1                    45.0


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #842 on: June 18, 2014, 08:09:45 AM »
I found it difficult to find something interesting today, but there are always the ESS/Laptev regions. Melt is occurring from the shores. In both seas the fast ice has cracked, but there still is a lot of fast ice that has not moved yet.

(click the picture for the animation)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #843 on: June 18, 2014, 06:37:44 PM »
Wipneus... While I am definitely a fan of melt numbers staying flat or even going up... Looking at the current weather, I'm at a complete loss to understand how you are determining there are day over day increases in area. Extent I can understand, as concentration is so variable.

But by comparison, area increases under current conditions, on such a huge scale strike me as a thermal impossibility.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #844 on: June 18, 2014, 08:10:12 PM »
Wipneus... While I am definitely a fan of melt numbers staying flat or even going up... Looking at the current weather, I'm at a complete loss to understand how you are determining there are day over day increases in area. Extent I can understand, as concentration is so variable.

But by comparison, area increases under current conditions, on such a huge scale strike me as a thermal impossibility.

I see several possibilities,

1) low concentration ice (<15%) is compacted to be over 15%. This may be happening in the Barents, Baffin, Hudson, anywhere in the marginal ice areas;
2) Melt ponds are counted as water (it is water), these may drain when it gets warmer or freeze when it get colder and show ice instead;
3) Algorithms are not perfect, the NSIDC measurements underestimate area when the surface ice or snow get wet. The ASI algorithm is more sensitive to water vapor and liquid water in clouds.

About the last point: I also calculate area and extent based on Jaxa ice concentration. Here area has not shown any uptick yet. Jaxa uses yet another algorithm: bootstrap. Actually Jaxa may the most realistic measurement here and now (but it is not free of the points 1 and 2).


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #845 on: June 19, 2014, 06:51:56 AM »
Update 20140618.

Extent: -82.1 (-383k vs 2013)
Area: -142.0 (-38k vs 2013)

A big decrease in area today is probably a partly a rebound from yesterdays uptick. The lead in area over 2013 is still less than a days melt, not significant. That drop in area is mostly from Kara where the warmer weather is doing its thing. Nearby Barents is loosing extent and area as well.
In the CAA, the most southern branches are opening up now. Beaufort, the only Arctic region with positive anomalies, is starting to move as well.
The region that goes the other way is the ESS. Open water that formed here in the last few days did close again with local wind direction north.


The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.6                     8.8                   -11.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -29.8                   -22.6                    16.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.3                     0.0                    -9.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -15.4                   -10.7                    -3.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -4.3                     0.0                   -82.1

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.6                    15.6                    -2.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -62.4                   -24.0                     5.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -7.6                     0.0                    -8.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -24.9                   -28.1                    -1.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -4.2                    -0.2                  -142.0


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #846 on: June 19, 2014, 07:44:45 AM »
Big drops in the Beaufort and CA regions.

That will continue to explode this week.  As well as more Laptev and Kara losses.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #847 on: June 19, 2014, 08:08:34 AM »
In the Kara/Barents region, most of the "blues" that appeared in the image that I poster two days ago have turned red. This is in the marginal zone: all that is needed is ice concentration going from above 15% to below 15%.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #848 on: June 19, 2014, 08:14:58 AM »
A color-coded conecentration map of the same regions shows that the effect that I talked about in the previous post is mostly in the Barents Sea.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #849 on: June 19, 2014, 08:40:19 AM »
I'm with jdallen on the credibility of the day-to-day numbers. It strikes me that the picture we have of the ice on any given day is not a contemporaneous snapshot - it's a collage built up over multiple satellite passes in the course of a 24 hour period. If the ice is both occupying more than half of the CAB and unusually fragmented/mobile, would this not make it more likely to be counted twice on any given day? In other words - could an uptick in "area" at this time of year be an indication of fragility?