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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #900 on: June 25, 2014, 09:43:58 AM »
I will add the distance with 2012 to the daily reports:

Extent: -80k7 (-663k vs 2013, +249k vs 2012)
Area: -77k1 (-631k vs 2013, +48k vs 2012)

2012 is of course calculated from the SSMIS data from Uni Hamburg. It has shown in 2013 and 2014 to follow the AMSR2 data closely as shown before somewhere in this thread a long tme ago.


jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #901 on: June 25, 2014, 09:46:46 AM »
....and temperature numbers posted elsewhere (buoys reporting central Beaufort temps at around 11C...), ...

JD, as Friv has pointed out, that ITP sensor must have difficulties. It is near the Northern boundary of the Beaufort, Climate R. puts temp on max +2-+3 dC (still high...) and 2013C shows +1.4dC.]

Never mind, Beaufort going down impressively....

I would have thought the same, had it not been 3 separate buoys.

Yes, it is impressive, and on a scale that challenges what happened to the Beaufort in 2012.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #902 on: June 25, 2014, 03:00:11 PM »
Quote
I will add the distance with 2012 to the daily reports
Thanks, Wipneus, for this addition! 
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #903 on: June 26, 2014, 07:34:34 AM »
Update 20140625.

Extent: -87k7 (-607k vs 2013, +295k vs 2012)
Area: -53k8 (-572k vs 2013, +121k vs 2012)

Continuing declines, but not as big as 2012 and 2013 on this day. Considering extent, about half the loss is in the Arctic Basin, mostly Kara and Barents. Decline in the CAB is caused by extending the various open waters (polynya) in ESS, Laptev, Kara and Barents sections into the CAB area.
Considering area, there is very little net decline when Hudson, Baffin and Greenland Sea are not included. In Kara there is a big decline, almost matched by an increase in the Canadian Archipelago. .

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -7.1                    -2.8                    -1.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -17.0                    -9.5                    -6.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -18.8                     0.3                   -18.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.5                     0.9                    -4.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.7                    -0.2                   -87.7

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    2.8                     8.7                    -0.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -36.6                   -12.1                   -22.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -19.5                     0.2                    -2.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   27.9                     7.6                    -7.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.6                     0.0                   -53.8


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #904 on: June 26, 2014, 07:52:27 AM »
In this contrast (extreme) enhanced image a crack is seen developing just north of the CAA islands. I am loosing it at the entrance to the Nares Strait, but is suggests it will run all the way to a similar crack north of Greenland.
 

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #905 on: June 26, 2014, 12:00:01 PM »
Sequence of the ice cover in the Kara Sea. Like we saw last year the melt will have to be in situ. If there will remain any stubborn ice remains to be seen, but I don't think so: the mobility is from edge to edge.

(click to animate)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #906 on: June 26, 2014, 04:35:00 PM »
In this contrast (extreme) enhanced image a crack is seen developing just north of the CAA islands. I am loosing it at the entrance to the Nares Strait, but is suggests it will run all the way to a similar crack north of Greenland.
Have we ever seen the whole cap pull away from the CAA and Greenland (creating a sort of NNW passage)? I don't recall it, but there doesn't seem to be anything preventing it: the ice on the other side of the basin is either gone or heavily fragmented.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #907 on: June 26, 2014, 04:37:32 PM »
Sequence of the ice cover in the Kara Sea. Like we saw last year the melt will have to be in situ. If there will remain any stubborn ice remains to be seen, but I don't think so: the mobility is from edge to edge.
It's interesting to watch the ice in the rivers and inlets progressively melting to the north. I think that gives us some indication of when the serious melting will hit the Kara. Maybe about a week.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #908 on: June 27, 2014, 07:22:10 AM »
Update 20140626.

Extent: -99k6 (-408k vs 2013, +344k vs 2012)
Area: -92k2 (-358k vs 2013, +214k vs 2012)


BREAKING: Kara is caving in. Huge decline both in area and extent in this region.
Other news: Baffin and Hudson continue melting as usual. Other regions in the Arctic Basin except Kara don't move much.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -4.4                     4.0                     8.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -58.2                    -3.5                     1.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -33.5                    -0.1                   -11.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.3                     0.9                    -3.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.5                    -0.1                   -99.6

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    2.7                    -2.3                    22.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -60.3                    -2.6                     3.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -40.9                    -0.1                    -5.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -18.1                    15.8                    -6.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.8                    -0.2                   -92.2


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #909 on: June 27, 2014, 07:36:56 AM »
Delta and concentration maps of Kara. There is a lot of high low concentration ice in the region left, so I doubt if the decline can keep up. But who knows?

« Last Edit: June 28, 2014, 08:41:01 AM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #910 on: June 27, 2014, 07:46:46 AM »
Kara extent. A big cliff is not unprecedented see 2012, but later than 2012/2013.

(legend: black UH AMSR2 2014, green: UH AMSR2 2013, orange: UH SSMIS 2012, purple: Jaxa AMSR2 L3 2014)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #911 on: June 27, 2014, 08:05:16 AM »
When the Fram Strait transport becomes negative...

(click to animate)

Edit : one of those animations that refused to work. Fixed now by rebuilding in the Gimp.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2014, 08:11:35 AM by Wipneus »


Frivolousz21

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #913 on: June 27, 2014, 09:13:54 AM »
The Kara regional ice is in bad shape.  Weather is in bad shape.

Kara will be really ravished within the week to 10 days.

The ESS/CAB will be on the chopping block soon area wise.
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Rubikscube

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #914 on: June 27, 2014, 02:26:39 PM »
2007 vs 2014 (AMSR-E vs AMSR-2)


2012 vs 2014 (SSMIS/F18 vs AMSR-2)


2013 vs 2014 (AMSR-2)


It is worth to notice that Hudson and Baffin combined seems to be ahead of all three years, although the difference can't be too big. There is still an apparent lack of low concentration areas within the main pack (indicating ponding), though, in the 2013 comparison one should take note of the prefound lack of blue shades on the Pacific side.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #915 on: June 27, 2014, 04:23:58 PM »
There is still an apparent lack of low concentration areas within the main pack (indicating ponding), though, in the 2013 comparison one should take note of the prefound lack of blue shades on the Pacific side.
Ponding to start tomorrow:

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #916 on: June 27, 2014, 04:30:21 PM »
Delta and concentration maps of Kara. There is a lot of high concentration ice in the region left, so I doubt if the decline can keep up. But who knows?
I think the high concentration is an illusion of the instruments. Look at the bottom half of the Kara -- the concentration maps show nearly 100% ice, but that's not 100% ice.

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #917 on: June 27, 2014, 06:55:49 PM »
Delta and concentration maps of Kara. There is a lot of high concentration ice in the region left, so I doubt if the decline can keep up. But who knows?
I think the high concentration is an illusion of the instruments. Look at the bottom half of the Kara -- the concentration maps show nearly 100% ice, but that's not 100% ice.

Well, it is technically ice; however, it is a bowl of ice cubes rather than pack. It's just waiting for sufficient heat to be collected to force the phase change.
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greatdying2

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #918 on: June 28, 2014, 04:41:31 AM »
Delta and concentration maps of Kara. There is a lot of high concentration ice in the region left, so I doubt if the decline can keep up. But who knows?
I think the high concentration is an illusion of the instruments. Look at the bottom half of the Kara -- the concentration maps show nearly 100% ice, but that's not 100% ice.

Well, it is technically ice; however, it is a bowl of ice cubes rather than pack. It's just waiting for sufficient heat to be collected to force the phase change.
Wouldn't some measure of the connectedness of the ice be somewhat useful by now? (Or lack thereof.)

Similarly, the 15% extent thing that everyone is so focussed on is, uh, "absolutely" (substitute much stronger word here) ridiculous. We're talking about one of the brightest canaries, and saying, ok it's lying on the bottom of the cage but it's still breathing, so no worries... (or that's how the MSM interprets it).

You guys are the experts. Please fix this.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #919 on: June 28, 2014, 08:20:28 AM »
Update 20140627.

Extent: -130k0 (-439k vs 2013, +411k+214k vs 2012)
Area: -154k9 (-401k vs 2013, +160k+59k vs 2012)
[EDIT: fixed a one-day-off bug in the comparison with 2012]


Big drops today and unlike past weeks not dominated by non-arctic basin regions.  Kara continues the decline that started yesterday. Further the area drop (bigger than extent) in the CAB and ESS is remarkable. The CAA, Beaufort and Barents are relatively quiet on such an active day.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -11.7                   -15.7                   -10.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -25.4                    -4.4                    -7.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -11.6                     0.0                   -32.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.1                    -2.6                    -8.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.7                    -0.4                  -130.0

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -41.5                   -34.3                    -4.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -36.0                     1.1                     4.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.9                     0.0                   -41.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.4                    -1.1                     0.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    1.1                    -0.3                  -154.9
« Last Edit: June 28, 2014, 04:43:50 PM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #920 on: June 28, 2014, 08:35:58 AM »

I think the high concentration is an illusion of the instruments. Look at the bottom half of the Kara -- the concentration maps show nearly 100% ice, but that's not 100% ice.

Hi Bruce, you are quite right. The map I showed was not the right date by my fault, forgot to run a script.

Attached is the correct image, that changes quite a lot! Lowered ice concentration indicates plenty room for further declines.

Sorry, will run the said script automatically from now on.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #921 on: June 28, 2014, 08:43:05 AM »
Today's  image shows ESS and Laptev. The very permanent open water is extending this "arm" into the Central Arctic.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #922 on: June 28, 2014, 09:04:59 AM »
Update 20140627.

Extent: -130k0 (-439k vs 2013, +411k vs 2012)
Area: -154k9 (-401k vs 2013, +160k vs 2012)

Big drops today and unlike past weeks not dominated by non-arctic basin regions.  Kara continues the decline that started yesterday. Further the area drop (bigger than extent) in the CAB and ESS is remarkable. The CAA, Beaufort and Barents are relatively quiet on such an active day.
 

It begins. 

The CAA and Beaufort will make themselves felt shortly.  The Barents is a sideshow at this point.  I would not be surprised by 200K drops in extent and area over the next few days.

I suspect the most serious "show" will be the Kara, ESS and CAB.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #923 on: June 28, 2014, 11:15:40 AM »
The fast ice by the Lena delta seems to be finally disintegrating, after turning blue then grey over the past few weeks. I suspect that quite a lot will go from that area over the next week or so. The ice in the ESS also seems to be deteriorating pretty rapidly now.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #924 on: June 28, 2014, 07:30:17 PM »
I think some of the decrease in the Kara in the last few days has been due to wind moving the ice and packing the loose fragments closer together.  In Wipneus's 1-day delta above the decrease along the pack boundary is paired with an increase through the Kara Gate (the narrow strait south of Novaya Zemla.)  This export shows well in the concentration maps above.  Winds seem to be dying now but here's one of nullschool.net's attractive wind maps from yesterday.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #925 on: June 28, 2014, 10:01:34 PM »
I think some of the decrease in the Kara in the last few days has been due to wind moving the ice and packing the loose fragments closer together.  In Wipneus's 1-day delta above the decrease along the pack boundary is paired with an increase through the Kara Gate (the narrow strait south of Novaya Zemla.)  This export shows well in the concentration maps above.  Winds seem to be dying now but here's one of nullschool.net's attractive wind maps from yesterday.


Yep and the sun.  It's been Sunny there going on the 3rd day now.  The water has warmed up there. Satellite data shows this. But ships and buoy data shows it even better.





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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #926 on: June 29, 2014, 07:49:11 AM »
Update 20140628.

Extent: -166.2 (-500k vs 2013, +244k vs 2012)
Area: -106.8 (-390k vs 2013, +54k vs 2012)

The big declines that 2014 needs for record aspirations. It is still the Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea that contribute the most. Baffin ice nearly gone, look at these regions for superlatives.
In the Arctic Basin it is Laptev and Beaufort that have the biggest drops. Kara seems to be out of the heat now, with the only significant area uptick.

You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -6.5                    -6.1                   -16.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -5.4                    -1.6                   -12.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -57.0                    -0.1                   -37.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.7                   -20.5                    -3.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.3                     0.2                  -166.2

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    6.4                    -6.5                   -29.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   14.3                     0.3                   -12.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -41.9                    -0.1                   -10.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.3                   -24.0                    -3.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.1                  -106.8


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #927 on: June 29, 2014, 08:15:00 AM »
I showed the Canadian Archipelago a few days ago, noticing the melt stains in the southern channels. I suggested also that as the main straits where filled with MYI, these would be more resistant. Now the melt is there as well, joining the big "torch" still blowing over the Beaufort.
 

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #928 on: June 29, 2014, 09:11:28 AM »
I'm starting to think we will SE the NW passage open this year after all...
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #929 on: June 29, 2014, 09:54:43 AM »
I'm starting to think we will SE the NW passage open this year after all...

Yes, definitely back in the realm of possibilities.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #930 on: June 30, 2014, 07:54:29 AM »
Update 20140629.

Extent: -196k9 (-606k vs 2013, +110k vs 2012)
Area: -118k1 (-451k vs 2013, -6k vs 2012)


BREAKING: It does not happen often but today we have a regional century, Hudson dropped -125k in extent. Together with Baffin nearly -160k. Compared with that the Arctic Basin is dull, Laptev had a good decline (extent and area esp.), with Beaufort a bit less. The CAB dropped in extent (Laptev/ESS tongue) but increased it area again.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -10.0                    -0.4                   -18.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    5.0                    -4.1                     4.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -33.1                     0.0                  -125.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.8                    -9.1                    -2.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -1.9                     0.0                  -196.9

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    9.1                    22.9                   -35.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   11.9                    -2.2                     0.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -24.2                     0.0                   -87.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.5                    -5.0                    -5.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -2.3                     0.1                  -118.1


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #931 on: June 30, 2014, 08:33:43 AM »
Wipneus,

Has Arctic area dropped below 2012's levels for this day? I just checked CT, 2012 is much below than 2014.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #932 on: June 30, 2014, 08:51:53 AM »
Wipneus,

Has Arctic area dropped below 2012's levels for this day? I just checked CT, 2012 is much below than 2014.

Sourabh, in 2012 the AMSR2 was not producing data on this day (it starts mid July, can't remember the date), University Hamburg does not provide such data until 2013 (I did ask).
So I use data from the same source but derived from SSMIS. SSMIS results are similar but not exactly the same as that from AMSR2.

But yes, for the first time we dip under the 2012 (SSMIS) data.

NSIDC (and therfore CT) relies on different microwave frequencies and calculations as Uni Hamburg uses. That has consequences. The much lower area points to better melting conditions in 2012. Unless that changes fast, this will have consequences for the final 2014 minima.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #933 on: June 30, 2014, 09:15:17 AM »
The Beaufort gyre still in motion.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #934 on: June 30, 2014, 09:30:47 AM »
The Beaufort gyre still in motion.

Am I the only one that sees that image and thinks cloud cover or fog is masking significant melt?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #935 on: June 30, 2014, 09:32:43 AM »
This is how an extent cliff looks like. Curiously an even bigger until so far cliff happened in the Hudson in 2012 on the same day.

(legend black: UH AMSR2 2014, green: UH AMSR2 2013, orange: UH SSMIS 2012, purple: Jaxa L3 AMSR2 2014)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #936 on: June 30, 2014, 09:43:21 AM »
The Beaufort gyre still in motion.

Am I the only one that sees that image and thinks cloud cover or fog is masking significant melt?

There is a lot of melt going, for sure; strong southerly flow, probably picking up moisture from the open fetch and hauling it to the pack.  There will be movement of water from depth as well.

Nothing yet though, with my admittedly limited experience, to suggest anything exceptional (for the 2010's... ) or overly dramatic happening.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #937 on: June 30, 2014, 09:56:58 AM »
The Beaufort gyre still in motion.

I honestly don't know what creates the Beaufort Gyre. Is it winds or ocean currents?

But winds have been a huge factor in moving that ice recently.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #938 on: June 30, 2014, 02:47:43 PM »
Does anyone else think there may be a dramatic slowing in ice loss in the next week or two? With ice in the periphery crashing (extent and area) but with CAB area ice showing a remarkable resiliency (particularly area which suggests compaction) wouldn't we need a direct assault on the CAB to maintain the rates of ice loss?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #939 on: June 30, 2014, 06:16:39 PM »
The Beaufort gyre still in motion.

I honestly don't know what creates the Beaufort Gyre. Is it winds or ocean currents?

But winds have been a huge factor in moving that ice recently.

It's the Beaufort high, which is a semi-permanent feature of the Arctic atmosphere. I must admit I don't know what causes the Beaufort High!

SH,

NSIDC Extent anomalies show a levelling in most recent years, but this is due to increasing losses through July in the 1980 to 1999 baseline average. Wipneus's finding that most of these losses are coming from Hudson/Baffin, the ice there won't last all summer, to keep up the average from 18 June of over 100k/day loss will need increasing melt in the Arctic Ocean itself. During July that is to be expected. The last two days drops in NSIDC Extent have put 2014 in second place for 29 July, only 200k behind 2012. As extent losses pick up through July it is now feasible that 2014 could be in the top four lowest years.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #940 on: June 30, 2014, 06:39:29 PM »
Does anyone else think there may be a dramatic slowing in ice loss in the next week or two?
I tend to agree. The Kara isn't doing anything. The ice drift maps indicate increased flow through the Fram, so extent and area there could increase. Baffin is about done, and Hudson will be soon. If the ice in the ESS breaks up, extent could increase there, too.

On the flip side, the Beaufort and Chukchi look like they're going to open up more. The Laptev looks to keep opening up, and possibly the ESS, too (if the above break up doesn't inflate the numbers). It doesn't seem to want to warm up in the CAB, so major losses there seem a ways off.

Then again, things could warm up, winds could shift, and we could see big drops everywhere.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #941 on: June 30, 2014, 09:22:06 PM »
What constitutes a dramatic slowing?

The Laptev, ESS, Kara, Chukchi, Beaufort will all continue to see melt as we go along.


This is mostly between 70-75N over the next couple of weeks.  This is huge real estate.  This year might not run at record lows but there is no reason to think there will be "dramatic" slowing of the ice melt.

I have never seen major losses in the CAB in July.




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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #942 on: June 30, 2014, 09:24:59 PM »
Does anyone else think there may be a dramatic slowing in ice loss in the next week or two? With ice in the periphery crashing (extent and area) but with CAB area ice showing a remarkable resiliency (particularly area which suggests compaction) wouldn't we need a direct assault on the CAB to maintain the rates of ice loss?

That's the big question right now. Will the frozen chicken start to warm up on the inside as well?
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #943 on: June 30, 2014, 09:37:24 PM »
This image really defines where the central arctic basin is. 

Most of that ice wasn't ever going to melt out this year or most years at all.

Area lowering here is a nice trick with melt ponds.  But unless the expectations are 2012.  Most of the central basin will be ice covered at the min.

The best shot to get into there will be around sections 3-4-5.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #944 on: July 01, 2014, 07:45:51 AM »
Update 20140630.

Extent: -97k1 (-580k vs 2013, +59k vs 2012)
Area: -66k7 (-338k vs 2013, +3k vs 2012)

A century, single if you want to, brings 2014  virtual level with 2012. Hudson and Baffin still  contribute most. Hudson is now filled with large fields of low concentration ice, upticks in extent here would not surprise  me.
Of all the other regions only Laptev stands out where winds may have started a big finale.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -6.0                     3.1                   -23.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.8                     4.4                     6.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -11.9                     0.0                   -59.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.6                    -1.0                    -6.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    1.1                    -0.1                   -97.1

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -6.8                    11.8                   -22.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -8.8                     6.0                     4.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -13.6                     0.0                   -36.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.2                     3.3                    -4.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    1.3                    -0.1                   -66.7


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #945 on: July 01, 2014, 08:21:10 AM »
Today's regional image is Laptev which has a decent decline in extent and area. For interpretation, winds are  blowing from the east (siberian sea). A very loose ice field is now free to move.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #946 on: July 01, 2014, 08:42:18 AM »
This image really defines where the central arctic basin is. 


No it does not. I am using the map, with some small modifications to make it usable for higher resolution grids, from CT-area. NSIDC defines a similar regional map, as does Jaxa, both quite similar to the CT one.

The CAB is about 4.45 106 km2, effectively about half of the Arctic Basin.


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #947 on: July 01, 2014, 11:47:28 AM »
This image really defines where the central arctic basin is. 


No it does not. I am using the map, with some small modifications to make it usable for higher resolution grids, from CT-area. NSIDC defines a similar regional map, as does Jaxa, both quite similar to the CT one.

The CAB is about 4.45 106 km2, effectively about half of the Arctic Basin.

I disagree if your referring to what is considered peripheral areas.  I don't have to use what CT uses to define what is considered easy to melt ice versus not.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #948 on: July 02, 2014, 08:04:48 AM »
Update 20140701.

Extent: -99k7 (-537k vs 2013, +5k vs 2012)
Area: -31k2 (-325k vs 2013, +55k vs 2012)

Hudson has stopped its dramatic loss of ice. Solid declines within the arctic basin today from Kara, Laptev, Barents and Chukchi make a near century possible. Nothing is moving in the CAB.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    2.1                     2.6                   -21.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -23.8                   -16.1                   -10.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -23.2                     0.1                    12.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.6                    -5.5                   -11.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -2.0                    -0.4                   -99.7

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.3                    15.0                    -8.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -11.8                   -10.3                   -11.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -13.2                     0.1                    13.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    4.5                     1.9                    -9.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -1.0                    -0.3                   -31.2


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #949 on: July 02, 2014, 08:34:00 AM »
Thank you Wipneus.

Elsewhere images in worldview leave me very worried about the next week to 10 days.

This is the eastern Beaufort:



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