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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1050 on: July 21, 2014, 08:26:56 AM »
Greenland Sea is the region of the day. No Fram Strait transport to speak of, the ice is disappearing in situ. The low concentration gap from Greenland to the Pole in the central ice pack that I noticed yesterday is clearly visible.

iceman

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1051 on: July 21, 2014, 12:57:31 PM »
The low concentration gap from Greenland to the Pole in the central ice pack that I noticed yesterday is clearly visible.
Interesting, it looks like there is going to be an atypical gap in the ice off the north coast of Greenland for a few days.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1052 on: July 22, 2014, 08:10:31 AM »
Update 20140721.

Extent: -77k5 (+220k vs 2013, +391k vs 2012)
Area: -80k3 (+183k vs 2013, +663k vs 2012)

Kara and Greenland Sea extent decline a bit faster than the other regions. This is true for area as well except the CAB that contunues closing the gap it made earlier this season.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -3.9                    -3.2                    -9.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -16.6                    -5.7                   -13.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.9                    -0.1                    -7.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.8                    -5.4                    -7.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.1                     0.3                   -77.5

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -31.1                    -3.1                    -3.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -10.4                    -5.5                   -10.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -7.3                     0.0                    -1.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -7.7                     3.5                    -3.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                     0.3                   -80.3


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1053 on: July 22, 2014, 08:30:37 AM »
Time to see how the ice is doing in the East Siberian Sea. One can see from the regional graphs that the ESS is starting to lag behind recent years. That could change if the current winds from the south continue. No indication for that I would say.


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1054 on: July 22, 2014, 08:48:33 AM »
Further in the west, the Vilkitsky is open for ice. It will take a while before Kara is drained this way.

nowayout

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1055 on: July 22, 2014, 10:17:45 AM »
The low concentration gap from Greenland to the Pole in the central ice pack that I noticed yesterday is clearly visible.
Interesting, it looks like there is going to be an atypical gap in the ice off the north coast of Greenland for a few days.

Which is what I would expect as result from the Greenland meltwater these days. Atypical not for long, then.


jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1056 on: July 22, 2014, 10:36:31 AM »
The low concentration gap from Greenland to the Pole in the central ice pack that I noticed yesterday is clearly visible.
Interesting, it looks like there is going to be an atypical gap in the ice off the north coast of Greenland for a few days.

Which is what I would expect as result from the Greenland meltwater these days. Atypical not for long, then.
I've been wondering about that myself.  I wonder how the coming "scorch" of the GIS might kick that?  Probably not enough to be noticeable, I expect.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1057 on: July 23, 2014, 08:12:07 AM »
Update 20140722.

Extent: -43k4 (+277k vs 2013, +473k vs 2012)
Area: -125k7 (+138k vs 2013, +528k vs 2012)

Interesting melt day. By extent there are no surprises, Kara sea ice continues its disappearance and small changes in other regions. By area there are big declines from different sides of the Arctic: Beaufort, ESS, Kara and the CAB. It looks to me that different reasons for this, cyclonic activity over teh Beaufort, strong southern winds in the Fram Strait and maybe warming on the Siberian side.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    2.6                   -11.2                    -6.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -16.1                     3.1                    -7.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.7                     0.0                    -6.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.4                     0.5                    -0.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.5                     1.4                   -43.4

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -38.8                   -37.8                   -12.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -29.3                     4.1                    13.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.6                     0.0                   -15.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   10.8                   -29.7                     8.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.4                     0.5                  -125.7


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1058 on: July 23, 2014, 08:19:40 AM »
Here is the Beaufort again for one interesting feature: an active cyclone must be shaking the ice up. It has not stopped the ice pack from hugging the Alaskan coast.


greatdying2

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1059 on: July 23, 2014, 03:01:11 PM »
Whoa, major area action! And that's even with an uptick in the CAA (which, if the forecast temp. anomalies are any indication, should be about to reverse dramatically).
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bruce

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1060 on: July 23, 2014, 04:25:18 PM »
Interesting melt day. By extent there are no surprises, Kara sea ice continues its disappearance and small changes in other regions. By area there are big declines from different sides of the Arctic: Beaufort, ESS, Kara and the CAB. It looks to me that different reasons for this, cyclonic activity over teh Beaufort, strong southern winds in the Fram Strait and maybe warming on the Siberian side.
A couple of days ago I mentioned in a post on the melting thread that the drift maps were predicting something like this. Conditions were pushing ice into the open water areas around the arctic. This results in little decrease (or even increase) in extent, but as the ice spreads out, concentration drops (which affects area). Based on your results, I'd say melting is proceeding at a rapid pace, but is being obscured on the extent plots by de-compaction.

Yesterday's drift map is attached.

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1061 on: July 23, 2014, 08:02:56 PM »
Echoing Bruce, the strong southern winds back up the Fram concern me; there is an awful lot of very warm water quite close at the surface which could be driven under the ice.

http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_50.gif

Even relatively cold seawater 0-1C has the potential to cause 5CM/day or more of bottom melt.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 08:14:29 PM by jdallen »
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1062 on: July 24, 2014, 06:55:16 AM »
Update 20140723.

Extent: -44k0 (+290k vs 2013, +532k vs 2012)
Area: -104k9 (+80k vs 2013, +537k vs 2012)

Same broad picture as yesterday: decline in (total) area is a lot more than in extent. Some regional details are different though: the area drops in CAB and Beaufort are now followed by upticks (esp CAB). In the CAA there are now big declines in extent and area, which may be ( partially) explained by a cyclone that moved from the Beaufort to just north of the CAA.

You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -2.0                     3.6                    -6.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -8.1                    -5.8                    -2.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.2                     0.1                    -8.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -19.0                     6.2                    -1.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.1                    -0.2                   -44.0

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   19.2                   -14.6                   -11.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -23.1                    -5.3                   -12.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    2.4                     0.1                    -4.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -30.4                     1.4                   -26.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.1                    -0.1                  -104.9


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1063 on: July 24, 2014, 07:15:36 AM »
Today's image is that of the Canadian Archipelago. The CAA lags still with 2013 but there is a difference:
in 2013 the southern branches quickly melted out, in 2014 the melt has moved to the centre.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1064 on: July 24, 2014, 07:17:12 AM »
As can be seen in the previous post, southern winds blow through the Nares Strait. Not much transport there!

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1065 on: July 24, 2014, 07:25:57 AM »
The section with low concentration ice north of Greenland/Nares is still there, could be deepening.

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1066 on: July 24, 2014, 07:29:03 AM »
Update 20140723.

Extent: -44k0 (+290k vs 2013, +532k vs 2012)
Area: -104k9 (+80k vs 2013, +537k vs 2012)


One thing I'm struck by here, is while I'm not sensing dramatic freefalls in ice area, it seems like there is a very workman-like steady drop in area over time, more often than not, 70-110K, day in, day out.  Mostly it seems to be running 85-100K.

Any empirical support for my perception?
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jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1067 on: July 24, 2014, 07:36:43 AM »
The section with low concentration ice north of Greenland/Nares is still there, could be deepening.
Wipneus, look at your animation carefully, checking on this detail area on the NE corner of Greenland.



It is not my imagination; the flow of water and ice is literally dividing that long 2000KM2 "Knife" of fast ice that broke off a week or so ago; half is moving east, half west.  There is something extraordinarily strange happening there.

Let me add, it appears to be melting FAST.  In the animation you show, upwards of 20% of the ice has disappeared in just that time span.  That was thick land fast ice.  There's a powerful heat source at work there.  Where do we think it might be coming from?!
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1068 on: July 24, 2014, 07:40:25 AM »

One thing I'm struck by here, is while I'm not sensing dramatic freefalls in ice area, it seems like there is a very workman-like steady drop in area over time, more often than not, 70-110K, day in, day out.  Mostly it seems to be running 85-100K.

Any empirical support for my perception?

Recovery from the first half of the melting season when extent was dropping but area was slow?

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1069 on: July 24, 2014, 07:50:01 AM »
There is some odd circulation happening at the entrance to the Fram.  In Wipneus' animation, you can pick out the blocks of MY fast ice shown in the image below, that broke off of Greenland around the 15th of July.  Watch their movement carefully.  They are spinning in a small gyre at the top of the Fram.

Stranger and stranger.

http://map2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/imagegen/index.php?TIME=2014203&extent=399392,-812736,645152,-629440&epsg=3413&layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,arctic_coastlines_3413&format=image/jpeg&width=480&height=358
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Icebird

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1070 on: July 24, 2014, 09:07:54 AM »
Hi jdallen, it looks like seawater is getting sucked into the Framstreet trough the crack from the north east of Greenland and maybe other forces like gravitation are working on the big ice pieces and also the difference between warm and cold seawater. What do you think because I think that's weird stuff . There are also other pieces at the end of the frames that starts to spinn.

seattlerocks

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1071 on: July 24, 2014, 10:57:32 AM »
It seems a south->north jet-like current that flows very close to the coast (even below the fast ice). It forms a recirculating eddy when it passes the north east corner of Greenland, and merges with arctic ocean water that is not moving (or that is moving much slower than the jet water).

If you see carefully, there might be a similar eddy at the left of the jet, but rotating counter-clock-wise. It is not very visible though.

seattlerocks

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1072 on: July 24, 2014, 11:47:54 AM »
Something like this:




which is actually a dipole flow (in this case a reverse dipole, lol)



Bruce

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1073 on: July 24, 2014, 04:19:53 PM »
It is not my imagination; the flow of water and ice is literally dividing that long 2000KM2 "Knife" of fast ice that broke off a week or so ago; half is moving east, half west.  There is something extraordinarily strange happening there.

Let me add, it appears to be melting FAST.  In the animation you show, upwards of 20% of the ice has disappeared in just that time span.  That was thick land fast ice.  There's a powerful heat source at work there.  Where do we think it might be coming from?!
My take on it after watching the animation for a while is that there is a warm current upwelling in that area. It's clearing out that open area, and melting anything that lingers.

TerryM

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1074 on: July 24, 2014, 11:20:42 PM »
jdailen
I've been getting temperatures in the teens at Nord for the last 6 days. On the 22nd the low was 10.5 C. Was it 2012 or 13 when the whole basin melted out, including ice islands that had grooves indicating they had once been part of the Ellesmere, Greenland ice shelf!
Independence Fjord will melt soon (I think). Important to remember that the Flade Isblink cap is only ~4k yrs old. It had melted away not too long ago.
Terry

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1075 on: July 25, 2014, 07:35:21 AM »
Update 20140724.

Extent: -74k5 (+227k vs 2013, +575k vs 2012)
Area: -47k2 (+120k vs 2013, +571k vs 2012)

Extent declines are reasonably even distributed among the regions. The sea ice area in the ESS declines more than the rest, while the Beaufort had an uptick.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    2.3                   -11.0                    -8.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -10.5                    -3.4                     2.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -8.6                     0.0                   -12.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -15.7                    -4.2                    -2.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.3                    -1.4                   -74.5

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -14.3                   -20.5                    -2.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.6                     4.3                    -7.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -7.2                     0.0                    -2.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -2.7                    21.5                    -6.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.3                    -0.6                   -47.2


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1076 on: July 25, 2014, 07:53:16 AM »
The "Laptev Bite" keeps opening slowly but surely.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1077 on: July 25, 2014, 08:02:07 AM »
As a cyclone moved over the Beaufort, the ice there is visibly left in a worse state.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1078 on: July 25, 2014, 09:13:46 AM »
As a cyclone moved over the Beaufort, the ice there is visibly left in a worse state.
A lot worse generally than the numbers would seem to indicate m'thinks.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1079 on: July 26, 2014, 08:11:40 AM »
Update 20140725.

Extent: -67k6 (+207k vs 2013, +463k vs 2012)
Area: -76k1 (+145k vs 2013, +519k vs 2012)

The CAA shows the biggest declines in extent and area (-22k extent). Kara and ESS a bit below that. Beaufort shows lower concentration (area) but not much change in extent, worsening the ice state even more (see animation posted yesterday).
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -0.7                   -15.4                    -5.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -16.0                     0.5                     4.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.8                    -0.1                    -3.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -22.1                    -2.4                    -3.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.4                     0.0                   -67.6

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    5.2                    -9.1                     2.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -9.9                    -3.6                     3.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -4.6                    -0.1                    -4.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -21.4                   -21.5                   -12.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.3                     0.0                   -76.1


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1080 on: July 26, 2014, 08:32:35 AM »
The winds have turned again over the Kara region. Will that diverge the ice that is now packed in the Severnaya Zemlya corner?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1081 on: July 27, 2014, 09:00:17 AM »
Update 20140726.

Extent: -66k8 (+205k vs 2013, +531k vs 2012)
Area: -31k8 (+227k vs 2013, +537k vs 2012)

The extent declines most in the ESS and Kara Seas. In area those regions don't move much, you must look at the CAB for significant area declines.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -8.2                   -19.9                    -7.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -20.1                     1.4                   -15.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -6.0                     0.0                     3.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    6.3                     0.5                    -0.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.3                     0.0                   -66.8

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -25.0                    -6.0                    -5.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.5                    -2.0                    -9.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -3.6                     0.0                    -3.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.9                    13.7                     3.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.3                     0.0                   -31.8


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1082 on: July 27, 2014, 09:21:10 AM »
Region of the day is Chukchi. The region with low concentration ice, extending into Beaufort and the CAB, is the most remarkable feature. If something exciting is going to happen soon, I would expect it here ( also because the Greenland "Gap" is not going to happen).

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1083 on: July 28, 2014, 08:25:53 AM »
Update 20140727.

Extent: -121k1 (+146k vs 2013, +616k vs 2012)
Area: -65k1 (+258k vs 2013, +599k vs 2012)

Strong extent declines in the ESS, but also in all regions along the Eurasian coast. The ESS is something to watch. Until now the ice there has been stubborn to let go, but historically is can melt out in a few weeks.
Area-wise the declines are a bit less, perhaps indicating the ice is compacting.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -15.1                   -35.2                   -24.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -8.4                    -0.4                   -10.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.3                     0.0                    -1.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -10.7                    -1.0                   -13.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.1                    -0.3                  -121.1

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   11.0                   -23.9                   -14.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -11.5                     2.8                    -7.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.9                     0.0                     2.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -8.6                    -8.8                    -6.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.2                    -0.1                   -65.1


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1084 on: July 28, 2014, 08:32:56 AM »
Here are the images from the East Siberian Sea. Eastern winds do some compaction, probably lots of melt as well.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1085 on: July 29, 2014, 08:29:09 AM »
Update 20140728.

Extent: -37k1 (+207k vs 2013, +703k vs 2012)
Area: -31k1 (+216k vs 2013, +712k vs 2012)

ESS and CAB have the biggest declines. The area decline in CAB can be called big, but the uptick in Chukchi is considerable as well.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -14.6                   -18.7                    -8.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    2.4                     0.9                     8.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.7                     0.1                    -5.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.4                    -0.8                    -0.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.1                     0.0                   -37.1

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -52.3                     2.7                   -10.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.2                    -3.2                     4.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.6                     0.0                    -3.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.5                     3.5                    35.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.0                     0.0                   -31.1


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1086 on: July 29, 2014, 08:47:50 AM »
Last year Kara seemed to melt out quickly, but a stubborn field of ice behind the Severnaya Zemlya islands held out long, making the North-East passage hazardous. We are at that same point as in 2013, notice a slow down for some days and wonder what will happen.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1087 on: July 30, 2014, 06:27:23 AM »
Update 20140729.

Extent: -100k0 (+151k vs 2013, +655k vs 2012)
Area: -87k6 (+231k vs 2013, +611k vs 2012)

An extent century decline reduces the lag with 2013 and 2014. It is the ESS that drops big way (continuing from the day before). Area reduction in the ESS is small though. The "Laptev Bite" has extended into the CAB, resulting in the declines there. Finally the very big drop in SIA in Chukchi should be noted.

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -15.4                   -42.0                    -5.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.8                    -0.1                    -3.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.7                     0.1                    -9.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -11.7                     1.7                    -7.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.3                    -0.2                  -100.0

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -20.6                    -4.2                    -2.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -13.5                     1.7                    -3.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.0                     0.1                    -3.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.1                     0.3                   -40.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.1                    -0.1                   -87.6


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1088 on: July 30, 2014, 06:56:41 AM »
The ice in the Laptev Sea proper is nearly gone, some ice sticks to the New Siberaian Islands, the remaining ice is part of the central ice pack. The large open water, whose origin can be traced back to this winter when SMOS showed thin ice , is extending into the CAB. The question is of course how far will it go?


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1089 on: July 30, 2014, 12:57:23 PM »
In the Canadian Archipelago, most of the melt is in the southern branches. Most of the ice appears solid and not mobile like the rest of the Arctic. Yet in the last few frames some can be seen becoming unstuck between Devon and Prince of Wales islands.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1090 on: July 30, 2014, 09:53:15 PM »
In the Canadian Archipelago, most of the melt is in the southern branches. Most of the ice appears solid and not mobile like the rest of the Arctic. Yet in the last few frames some can be seen becoming unstuck between Devon and Prince of Wales islands.

CAA ice is under serious attack - considering coastal temperatures forecast to be all they way up to 30C in the southern portions.

That extreme isn't reaching the upper portions of the NWP, but there's considerable energy being applied.  If it is enough to break up that ice is an excellent question.  My sense is it will, but that prediction has a rather high level of uncertainty built into it.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1091 on: July 30, 2014, 11:50:19 PM »
the lack of area drops is from surface freezing as insolation drops.

The incoming airmass will probably cause a reverse of most of the gains.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1092 on: July 31, 2014, 07:12:09 AM »
Update 20140730.

Extent: -46.3 (+117k vs 2013, +700k vs 2012)
Area: +47.2 (+393k vs 2013, +734k vs 2012)

 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):

The CAB area had a big increase (+83k) today only partly offset by the other regions. It may or may not have to do with a cyclone north of Fransz Jozef Land, liquid water in clouds associated with weather fronts do effect the 89GHz channel used by the ASI algorithm. The ESS continues to decline at a reduced pace (compared with yesterday).

Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    5.2                   -18.4                   -11.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -7.0                     7.2                    -5.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -0.2                    -0.1                    -7.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    4.0                    -4.0                    -9.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                    0.2                     0.2                   -46.3

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   83.3                    -5.2                    -5.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -22.9                     3.9                     0.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    0.3                    -0.1                    -5.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    8.6                   -19.7                    10.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                    0.3                     0.2                    47.2


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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1093 on: July 31, 2014, 07:28:19 AM »
Beaufort ice cleared from the continent today according to the satellite, but if you want to sail the route, don't take my word for it that it is ice free. The region (with Chukchi) has the biggest stretch of low concentration, speckled with polynya , ice ready to disappear, all it needs is a good "blast".

 

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1094 on: July 31, 2014, 07:38:13 AM »
A little ice can make it past the border drawn in the Fram Strait, but doesn't survive very long. Most of the ice (measured by area) appears to be the ice that is still fasted to North Greenland.
In the central ice pack the apparent increase in concentration caused by an Arctic Cyclone between Fansz Jozef Land and the Pole can be seen.

(click the picture to animate)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1095 on: July 31, 2014, 09:24:38 AM »
... ice ready to disappear, all it needs is a good "blast".

You're never going to let me live that down, are you?

 ;)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1096 on: July 31, 2014, 03:35:05 PM »
... ice ready to disappear, all it needs is a good "blast".

You're never going to let me live that down, are you?


Believe me its nothing to do with you. Occasionally I borrow a strong word from some other posting when I think it is appropriate. In this case I keep wondering what a little GAC would do to this ice.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1097 on: August 01, 2014, 07:24:33 AM »
Update 20140731.

Extent: -55k1 (+118k vs 2013, +667k vs 2012)
Area: +3k5 (+407k vs 2013, +826k vs 2012)

The ice extent in Chukchi makes a big drop, Kara a bit smaller one. Ice area increases in Beaufort and CAB, declines in the ESS.
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

The details (in 1000 km2):


Extent:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    1.9                    -4.4                    -5.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -14.6                     1.4                     6.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -1.5                     0.0                     2.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -8.0                    -3.0                   -30.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.1                     0.3                   -55.1

Area:
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   23.0                   -19.8                    -6.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -12.4                     0.3                     7.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.4                     0.0                    -0.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -8.8                    25.6                    -1.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -0.2                     0.3                     3.5


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1098 on: August 01, 2014, 07:34:37 AM »
Winds drive the ice edge north in the Chukchi sea. Some polynya show a growth spurt.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1099 on: August 01, 2014, 07:43:28 AM »
The "Laptev Bite" keeps widening. I think this sequence shows that ice movement due to wind and sea currents is the driving force here.