The fact that the ice around the North Pole is now exceptionally thin for hundreds of kilometers in all directions suggests there are still more interesting times to come before the end of the season.
My two cents as an armchair amateur...
Thin, but I'd say not quite thin enough. There will be a huge volume loss, but I'm fairly confident we won't see an "ice free" north pole. The Laptev Dagger may come a bit close(r) but I don't think it will arrive. Over all, I don't think the thin ice will permit the melt to get much past 2013. Bad enough in itself, but I don't anticipate anything sudden and dramatic; the net balance of heat entering the system is going to start dropping off sharply fairly soon. To get to 2007/2011/2012 levels, the heat needed won't be around, and I'm confident import via currents (North Atlantic drift) won't make up the short fall.
I don't think that outcome is necessarily good for the Arctic. The remaining thin ice will actually tend to impede the refreeze, providing insulation and reducing heat loss from the ocean, without necessarily contributing greatly itself to the volume.
The huge areas of open water in the Laptev, Barents and ESS will also tend to inhibit the refreeze. The extent in the Laptev in particular is so huge, I'm concerned winter storms may be able to create enough surf that heat will be brought up from depth which will cripple the creation of ice until quite late - possibly after December. I will be watching the mass balance numbers next spring with great interest.
