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Author Topic: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation  (Read 1509015 times)

Jim Hunt

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1900 on: April 21, 2016, 12:09:14 PM »
Wipneus looks to have nailed it. A hefty chunk of grounded ice. Somewhat more than 2 meters thick!
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jliukas

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1901 on: April 21, 2016, 08:07:27 PM »
Watching Worldview, there seems to be a similar spot in that location on April 2015 also. Coincidence perhaps.

doogi

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1902 on: April 21, 2016, 09:41:32 PM »
It would seem that this is not unusual.

Here is one piece that appear to be stuck from about 27th of Mars to 2nd of September 2013.

http://go.nasa.gov/211xo7J
http://go.nasa.gov/1WfVzhR

There are some cloudy days and a change of the arctic projection in worldwide that alters the apparent direction of the icepiece which makes it hard to say its the same piece with absolute certainty, but i belive it is the same piece.

TerryM

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1903 on: April 22, 2016, 04:41:36 AM »
Wasn't there an ice island fragment supposed to be from Ward Hunt or possibly the Ayles Ice Shelf that was cruising around this area?
One of the regulars here was tracking it ~3-4 yrs ago & may be able to fill us in if he still checks in.
Terry

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1904 on: April 22, 2016, 10:44:10 AM »
Wasn't there an ice island fragment supposed to be from Ward Hunt or possibly the Ayles Ice Shelf that was cruising around this area?
One of the regulars here was tracking it ~3-4 yrs ago & may be able to fill us in if he still checks in.
Terry
I vaguely remembered that too, I wonder
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3348310/Arctic-ice-shelf-splits-in-big-melt.html
http://inhabitat.com/shells-arctic-oil-drilling-efforts-halted-by-a-massive-rogue-iceberg/

Andreas T

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1905 on: April 22, 2016, 06:49:53 PM »
comparing July 2015 with July 2014 different pieces are stuck in the same place, unless it grew larger from 2014 to 2015 ;)
http://go.nasa.gov/1Sh3OJj

Errorr

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1906 on: April 23, 2016, 03:54:42 AM »
Lurker Here. 

I went back and tried to see how far I could find evidence of the grounded piece of ice. Using worldview and the nighttime temp (band 31) there is clear evidence of it well back into December. There is some really obvious signs of thin-ice/open water caused by the piece around christmas. Playing around with the palettes it seems clear that it grounded sometime on Dec 10.

Looks like a high pressure system moved into the Beaufort around that time and the winds were driving the flows hard.

I think I attached the 2 pics to the post showing the first evidence of a polynya caused by it in weird red colors as well as the winds on that day.

I tried tracking it back to see if I could follow the ice but I get lost with cloud cover and the whole months of darkness thing.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1907 on: April 23, 2016, 08:57:51 AM »
Some of the ice in the Bering Sea is trying to escape along the coast.

click to animate.

DavidR

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1908 on: April 23, 2016, 09:55:47 AM »
Some of the ice in the Bering Sea is trying to escape along the coast.


Based on that it certainly looks like most of the ice in the Bering will be gone by the end of the month!

I guess Okhotz is the same?
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1909 on: April 23, 2016, 10:45:09 AM »
Some of the ice in the Bering Sea is trying to escape along the coast.


Based on that it certainly looks like most of the ice in the Bering will be gone by the end of the month!

I guess Okhotz is the same?

Since you asked:

(scaled to 6.25 km/pix for size)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1910 on: April 23, 2016, 04:16:01 PM »
Some of the ice in the Bering Sea is trying to escape along the coast.
That's a lovely 'snake' slithering past the villages of Enmelen and Nunligran in the area of Kosa-Meechkyn (Meechkyn Spit according to Google translate).  (Siberian map with lots of named locations can be found here.)
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1911 on: April 24, 2016, 06:45:40 PM »
An 8 month animation of Hanna Shoal seen by Sentinel 1A radar. The grounded ice feature is developing sometime during the Dec-Jan time frame.

Andreas T

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1912 on: April 24, 2016, 07:36:23 PM »
http://digital.ecomagazine.com/publication/?i=254898&article_id=1986513&view=articleBrowser&ver=html5#{%22issue_id%22:254898,%22view%22:%22articleBrowser%22,%22article_id%22:%221986513%22}
mentions the scouring of the sea bed by ice scraping sediments from this shallow shoal and ice stranded there into the summer being used by walrus as a convenient platform to rest between feeding on the surrounding areas which are deep enough to be safe from ice (ridged floes I presume) and where the sea floor is populated by whatever walrus feed on

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1913 on: April 26, 2016, 08:46:56 AM »
Fram Strait and Greenland Sea, compared with 2015. Scaled to 6.25km/pix for size.

abbottisgone

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1914 on: April 28, 2016, 09:12:33 AM »
Fram Strait and Greenland Sea, compared with 2015. Scaled to 6.25km/pix for size.
Is this showing clearer skies for 2016 in the north pole compared to 2015?
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1915 on: April 28, 2016, 10:19:58 AM »
Fram Strait and Greenland Sea, compared with 2015. Scaled to 6.25km/pix for size.
Is this showing clearer skies for 2016 in the north pole compared to 2015?

I don't know about the skies, clouds make the apparent concentration to go up.

It may be colder over the ice there now than in 2015.

I do not always mention it, but to make the ice movement in these animations better visible the contrast is increased. So the apparent differences in concentration are exaggerated.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1916 on: May 01, 2016, 09:55:53 AM »
In the last few frames of this Kara animation, the ice is confirmed to be mobile in the Vilkitsky Strait. One of the potential obstacles of the Northern Sea Route.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1917 on: May 01, 2016, 02:51:22 PM »
With the Kara Sea in general, is that mainly ice movement or is their significant melt as well?


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1919 on: May 01, 2016, 04:38:14 PM »
With the Kara Sea in general, is that mainly ice movement or is their significant melt as well?

No widespread melt in Kara yet (or anywhere else), according to ADS/NIPR/Jaxa AMSR2:

werther

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1920 on: May 01, 2016, 10:28:54 PM »
Shared humanity,

The momentary condition of the sea ice in the Kara Sea is not so much the produce of new melt, but of a lack of 'winter power'. Even on the shores of Polu-ostrov Taymir, mean temps were 5-6 dC above the climatic mean. Vilkitsky Strait ice was never 'landfast' during last winter.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2016, 08:50:38 PM by werther »

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1921 on: May 06, 2016, 10:09:12 AM »
Serious torching over the fast ice in the Laptev region. Happens every year, but this is early. Last year it was around the first of June.

Needs a click to start.

Sebastian

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1922 on: May 06, 2016, 07:54:55 PM »
I believe this calls for a haiku:


A simple click.
Amazing sea ice animations.
Fragile arctic.



Thanks wipneus.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1923 on: May 08, 2016, 11:28:23 AM »
Cracking getting more extensive and in different directions.

Big, it needs a click to start.

johnm33

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1924 on: May 08, 2016, 12:00:07 PM »
That's the first time I've seen the whole Arctic at the mercy of the winds, quite awesome, not good.
Many thanks Wipneus.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1925 on: May 08, 2016, 04:09:34 PM »
Looks like the Beaufort Gyre is being replace with a CAB gyre.  Will the Beaufort Sea ice fell left out and melt away?
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1926 on: May 08, 2016, 07:22:42 PM »
I see plenty of names posting here that I have grown to know since we all searched for a place to discuss our concerns , post 07' over at Neven's Arctic sea ice blog .

I think/fear that we are now approaching the thing that frightens us the most, an near ice free min.

I ,personally, worry over this year as the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' will be entering the time span for a return in 2017 and so this year, for me, would give us the older ice that takes on such a return.

I now worry that this season will possibly do so much damage that it will no longer need a return of the 'perfect melt storm' to produce what we most fear?
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1927 on: May 08, 2016, 07:48:56 PM »
Cracking getting more extensive and in different directions.

Big, it needs a click to start.
Watching the animation I am overwhelmed by combination of profound fear and profound wonder. The energy at work in the image is staggering. The result cannot be less than transformative. The implication is dire.

Awe is the correct reaction. Awestruck is how I feel.
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oren

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1928 on: May 08, 2016, 07:57:58 PM »
Thank you Wipneus for such an instructive animation. This year definitely got a chance to break the record with appropriate weather, and a very good favorite for a second place finish even with an average season.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1929 on: May 08, 2016, 08:18:06 PM »
I ,personally, worry over this year as the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' will be entering the time span for a return in 2017 and so this year, for me, would give us the older ice that takes on such a return.

I now worry that this season will possibly do so much damage that it will no longer need a return of the 'perfect melt storm' to produce what we most fear?

As the years have gone by the ice has been degraded and reduced. It's been sad/horrifying to watch. The prefect melt storm has always been required, but it just needs to be less and less perfect each year. The way the ice is looking at the moment, a barely average melt storm will do massive damage.

It probably wont be this year, but the Blue Arctic is getting very close.

abbottisgone

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1930 on: May 09, 2016, 05:24:56 AM »
I see plenty of names posting here that I have grown to know since we all searched for a place to discuss our concerns , post 07' over at Neven's Arctic sea ice blog .

I think/fear that we are now approaching the thing that frightens us the most, an near ice free min.

I ,personally, worry over this year as the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' will be entering the time span for a return in 2017 and so this year, for me, would give us the older ice that takes on such a return.

I now worry that this season will possibly do so much damage that it will no longer need a return of the 'perfect melt storm' to produce what we most fear


What you should fear is resource bottlenecks when the whole world realises at once that it's on like Donkey Kong.

We are watching reality TV... if that multi year sea ice goes then panic will ensue!
« Last Edit: May 10, 2016, 08:41:02 AM by abbottisgone »
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1931 on: May 10, 2016, 08:11:29 AM »
Extending the Beaufort+CAB animation of two days ago shows a new wide crack north of the Canadian islands and more of those cracks connecting the ESS to Ellesmere.


Laurent

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1932 on: May 10, 2016, 10:17:47 AM »
Nice cracks !

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1933 on: May 13, 2016, 07:37:19 AM »
The supposedly thick ice in the East Siberian Sea is starting to crack now as well.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1934 on: May 13, 2016, 08:06:16 AM »
AMSR2 detected melt (ADS-NIPR-Jaxa) continues in the Beaufort.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1935 on: May 13, 2016, 09:28:00 AM »
The supposedly thick ice in the East Siberian Sea is starting to crack now as well.
Begs the question at this point... where is it not cracked, and does that make any difference?  I suspect not.

Looking at your animations, Wipneus, I think the WAG  (Whole Arctic Gyre) is beginning to manifest.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1936 on: May 13, 2016, 02:39:07 PM »
The supposedly thick ice in the East Siberian Sea is starting to crack now as well.
Begs the question at this point... where is it not cracked, and does that make any difference?  I suspect not.

Looking at your animations, Wipneus, I think the WAG  (Whole Arctic Gyre) is beginning to manifest.

There have been cracks in ESS since Apr 15, due to the Gyre.
These new ones appear in a really bad moment where high temp air is entering the region and some cyclonic weather comes too, to add insult to injury.
The heat is everywhere, 360° around the Arctic  !

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1937 on: May 13, 2016, 08:56:12 PM »
The supposedly thick ice in the East Siberian Sea is starting to crack now as well.
Begs the question at this point... where is it not cracked, and does that make any difference?  I suspect not.

Looking at your animations, Wipneus, I think the WAG  (Whole Arctic Gyre) is beginning to manifest.

There have been cracks in ESS since Apr 15, due to the Gyre.
These new ones appear in a really bad moment where high temp air is entering the region and some cyclonic weather comes too, to add insult to injury.
The heat is everywhere, 360° around the Arctic  !

Agree.  I wasn't speaking so much to the cracking north of the Laptev as I was to what appeared to me to be arctic-wide rotation.  Werther presented some very good analysis on the state of the ice that generally quantifies what's going on.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg76552.html#msg76552

Sounds like it will all spin, and more or less rapidly grind away at the semi-stable expanse in the middle.
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1938 on: May 14, 2016, 08:52:57 AM »
Surface melting sizzles out, according to ADS-Nipr_Jaxa's AMSR2 analysis:

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1939 on: May 14, 2016, 08:58:33 AM »
Surface melting sizzles out, according to ADS-Nipr_Jaxa's AMSR2 analysis:
Latest peek I took at EOSDIS (using the aqua-modis 7-2-1 layer) still suggests surface melt over wide swaths - several hundred thousand KM2 worth - of both the Chukchi and Beaufort.  It may not be spreading, but it doesn't appear to be refreezing yet either.

Even if it does, there's considerable damage done to the local albedo already.

With upcoming warm weather predicted, I expect the current visible melt to expand considerably.

[Edit: There's a lot in Hudson's Bay and other peripheral areas as well, but frankly I don't think that has anything like the gravity of what's happening in areas directly adjacent to the CAB]
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werther

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1940 on: May 14, 2016, 10:42:22 AM »
Wipneus is right, the blue hue over the Chukchi is gone today. A new High over the North Slope has shifted winds to the West. It piles up the shattered ice against Barrow again. Temps are around or just below zero dC.
There's no decisive melt-ponding yet...
 

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1941 on: May 14, 2016, 10:39:50 PM »
Surface melting sizzles out, according to ADS-Nipr_Jaxa's AMSR2 analysis:

It should restart with a vengeance in the next day or two over the ESS and Chukchi.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1942 on: May 15, 2016, 02:26:47 AM »
Surface melting sizzles out, according to ADS-Nipr_Jaxa's AMSR2 analysis:

It should restart with a vengeance in the next day or two over the ESS and Chukchi.

Back toward 0c up at the Obuoy (77n, roughly between Barrow and the pole)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1943 on: May 15, 2016, 09:02:24 AM »
Where the cracks originating from Beaufort and those from the Fram Exit meet.

mmghosh

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1944 on: May 15, 2016, 09:10:27 PM »
Great pix Wipneus, the entire polar ice cap seems to be ready to just break off and float free.  Now that would be a terrific image.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1945 on: May 16, 2016, 03:35:33 AM »
Where the cracks originating from Beaufort and those from the Fram Exit meet.
There is a clockwise action.

It is this clockwise action that pushes the ice out from between Greenland and Iceland??
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1946 on: May 16, 2016, 08:25:22 AM »
The last frames show a sudden darkening over the long crack that separates the ice in the ESS and Laptev Seas from the main pack.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1947 on: May 16, 2016, 12:55:41 PM »
The last frames show a sudden darkening over the long crack that separates the ice in the ESS and Laptev Seas from the main pack.
I'm sorry, but is not this gif, especially in conjunction with your earlier gif "Where the cracks originating from Beaufort and those from the Fram Exit meet" signs that things are really coming undone!!?  I'm trying to get a sense of what some of you veterans here are really thinking and feeling.  It seems that the ice north of Greenland and CAA breaking up and moving like that is just crazy for anytime of the year.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 01:16:32 PM by Ice Shieldz »

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1948 on: May 16, 2016, 06:26:22 PM »
I'm sorry, but is not this gif, especially in conjunction with your earlier gif "Where the cracks originating from Beaufort and those from the Fram Exit meet" signs that things are really coming undone!!?  I'm trying to get a sense of what some of you veterans here are really thinking and feeling.  It seems that the ice north of Greenland and CAA breaking up and moving like that is just crazy for anytime of the year.

In my opinion things are not really "coming undone". Mobile ice and cracks over large parts of the Arctic in spring is not unusual, at least for the last few years. First signs of surface melting have been seen, but if you check this thread, in 2015 there were unmistakable signs of surface melting at 11 May. We are certainly not weeks ahead of schedule. What stands out this year is the continuing Beaufort Gyre and the amount of open water that has come with it. The remainder of the ice in the Arctic Basin (where  the ice is that can survive summer) seems to be in a shape cot unlike last few years.
At this point, if the Arctic is to endure brutal melting summer weather, a dramatic low September ice cover may result. But that was probably also true for 2013, 2014 and 2015, at this day of year.

For the rest I have a daily look at the data and the ice maps and report what I thing is noteworthy, or unusual. The reason for the darkening seen in these animations is still not explained to my liking. Note that the darkening may look dramatic, but it is not albedo because that is not what is measured here. It is ice concentration, computed from surface microwave emissions and I increase the contrast in these animations considerably.

bbr2314

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1949 on: May 16, 2016, 07:42:29 PM »
I'm sorry, but is not this gif, especially in conjunction with your earlier gif "Where the cracks originating from Beaufort and those from the Fram Exit meet" signs that things are really coming undone!!?  I'm trying to get a sense of what some of you veterans here are really thinking and feeling.  It seems that the ice north of Greenland and CAA breaking up and moving like that is just crazy for anytime of the year.

In my opinion things are not really "coming undone". Mobile ice and cracks over large parts of the Arctic in spring is not unusual, at least for the last few years. First signs of surface melting have been seen, but if you check this thread, in 2015 there were unmistakable signs of surface melting at 11 May. We are certainly not weeks ahead of schedule. What stands out this year is the continuing Beaufort Gyre and the amount of open water that has come with it. The remainder of the ice in the Arctic Basin (where  the ice is that can survive summer) seems to be in a shape cot unlike last few years.
At this point, if the Arctic is to endure brutal melting summer weather, a dramatic low September ice cover may result. But that was probably also true for 2013, 2014 and 2015, at this day of year.

For the rest I have a daily look at the data and the ice maps and report what I thing is noteworthy, or unusual. The reason for the darkening seen in these animations is still not explained to my liking. Note that the darkening may look dramatic, but it is not albedo because that is not what is measured here. It is ice concentration, computed from surface microwave emissions and I increase the contrast in these animations considerably.
Perhaps the smoke drifting N from the Siberian fires concentrates in patches? Would there be any reason it is more drawn to open water in the Arctic vs. ice? Either way it certainly seems that large quantities of wildfire fumes have concentrated in the vicinity we are discussing past few days, could help explain...