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Author Topic: Next election  (Read 773 times)

nadir

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Next election
« on: August 10, 2022, 11:12:11 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2022, 11:48:46 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

nadir

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Re: Next election
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2022, 10:44:31 AM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

Ah ok, in that case it’s all good, right? Nothing to see here either

SteveMDFP

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Re: Next election
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2022, 12:45:31 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

Ah ok, in that case it’s all good, right? Nothing to see here either

It's not all good, but it is politics.  A long as the Senate ha a 50-50 split in party makeup, Joe Manchin has a personal veto on almost all legislation.  He's from a coal state, and a fossil fuel guy. Therefore, any bold legislation has to be negotiated with him.  He might be the most powerful person in DC.   But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

NeilT

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Re: Next election
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2022, 01:54:43 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2022, 01:55:20 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

Ah ok, in that case it’s all good, right? Nothing to see here either

It's not all good, but it is politics.  A long as the Senate ha a 50-50 split in party makeup, Joe Manchin has a personal veto on almost all legislation.  He's from a coal state, and a fossil fuel guy. Therefore, any bold legislation has to be negotiated with him.  He might be the most powerful person in DC.   But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

Tough slate.  The Dems will struggle to hold the Senate at 50-50.  That is the most likely scenario.  Most forecasters have the GOP ahead 49-47 (including the Inds. that side with the Dems.), and 4 states tossups. 

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/consensus-2022-senate-forecast

The Dems would need all 4 to increase their advantage.  The political climate is not as anti-Dem as it was a few months ago, but they would need more pull come Novemeber to increase their chances.  There are few other races that are competetive and could change come November, but that would probably require some kind of bombshell affecting the race.  Forecasters are predicting the GOP to win back the House, with anywhere from a 3 to 35 seat advantage.  House seats are notorously harder to predict, so these forecasts have a much larger margin of error.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Next election
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2022, 04:35:25 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.

Hardly rock bottom, but Manchin is virtually certain to have a lot less influence after the election. If they hold the House they'll probably pick up a couple in the Senate.
60% probability to hold the Senate
20% to hold the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

SteveMDFP

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Re: Next election
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2022, 05:07:02 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.

Hardly rock bottom, but Manchin is virtually certain to have a lot less influence after the election. If they hold the House they'll probably pick up a couple in the Senate.
60% probability to hold the Senate
20% to hold the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Indeed.  Though Biden has low popularity, most Americans favor Roe v. Wade, and aren't that happy with the SC's gun control decisions.  So the midterms and following elections are very much in play. 

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2022, 05:26:00 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.

Hardly rock bottom, but Manchin is virtually certain to have a lot less influence after the election. If they hold the House they'll probably pick up a couple in the Senate.
60% probability to hold the Senate
20% to hold the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

That 60% probability means 50 seats or more, which means that Manchin will still hold significant sway.  The probability that the Dems take over the Senate, 51 seats or more, drops to 40%. 

NeilT

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Re: Next election
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2022, 05:42:40 PM »
Indeed.  Though Biden has low popularity, most Americans favor Roe v. Wade, and aren't that happy with the SC's gun control decisions.  So the midterms and following elections are very much in play.

Low popularity is an understatement.

Politico says

Quote
In a bleak midterm election landscape for Democrats, Roe almost certainly won’t be enough to keep Republicans from winning the House

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/03/5-takeaways-from-august-2-primary-00049516

Back in June the image below shows the Gallup poll on Biden/Dem satisfaction.

That will play on the election and Roe may affect it.  It is just a matter of how much.  This will also impact the ability of the Dems to get through legislation for their climate agenda.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2022, 06:42:51 PM »
Based on the history of approval ratings, the Dems can expect to lose almost 40 house seats.  It mattered not which party was in the White House.

kassy

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Re: Next election
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2022, 08:18:43 PM »
Quote
This is very off-topic

Quite. Election stuff can go into politics.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: Next election
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2022, 08:22:51 PM »
Moving some discussion related to the next US round of elections into Politics.

Edit: I missed some button somewhere. Oren could you please move this into politics? Thanks!
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: Next election
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2022, 12:18:06 AM »
Done  8)

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2022, 02:06:48 PM »
A  July Gallup poll showed that the economy is the top issue on voter's minds this election (no surprise), followed closely by gun policy.  That is probably one plus and one minus for the Democratic party.  Compared to the 2018 midterms, the economy is a higher issue, while immigration and taxes are less important this year.  Gun policy and abortion are the highest since these polls have occurred.  Climate change is unchanged in importance over the past four years, and Russia has become an issue.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/394628/americans-intensity-running-high-midterms.aspx

nadir

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About the environment
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2022, 04:03:23 PM »
I didn’t start this thread, for the record. I wasn’t thinking on the next election when I posted the OP in Oil & Gas issues thread.

The new law just passed in Congress, next to be signed by Biden. It is supposed to be a triumph for environment but it hides a huge gift for oil & gas companies, which will last for DECADES.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2022, 06:16:56 PM by nadir »