Greenland 2022-23 SMB, melting and GRACE mass

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 27 February 2023 - Another Event to report on this day

On 27th February daily SMB gain was over 9 Gigatons, the 2nd highest daily gain this freezing season. Concentrated in the SE coastal region, it may again have included some rain on snow at very low altitudes.

It was enough to give another strong upward spike in the SMB cumulative gain graph

Current SMB cumulative gain is 423GT, which is 36GT (10%) above the previous 5 years average of 386GT.

Melt On 27th Feb there was also an unusual measurable melt on the West Coast, giving a tiny blip on the melt graph.

GFS predicts some strong low pressure systems from the South to continue bringing strong precipitation and well above average warmth to Southern Greenland periodically over the next few days, that could involve rain on snow and sufficient warmth for measurable melt from time to time.

Perhaps a lively end of February / early March in contrast to the boringly average in place since the astonishing melt events in Sept '22.  Has the Major SSW currently underway have a role to play in this?
 
click images to enlarge

[kassy]

Greenland temperatures surge up to 28C above normal, setting records

Temperatures soared to record levels in Greenland early this week, up to 28C above normal in some places.

Researchers say this early warm spell could make its ice sheet more vulnerable to melt events this summer.

Recent summers have brought record-setting melting of the massive ice sheet, which is the world's largest contributor to rising sea levels, outpacing the Antarctic ice sheet and mountain glaciers.

This latest warm spell in Greenland pushed the temperature in its capital, Nuuk, up to 15.2C on Sunday, the warmest on record for March or April, according to climate expert Maximiliano Herrera. The average March high in Nuuk, which sits on the southwestern coast of the island, is about -5C.

Computer model analyses showed even more anomalous temperatures in the far-northern part of Greenland, between 17 and 28C above normal.

The warmth is related to a phenomenon that meteorologists call the "Greenland block," a stagnant zone of high pressure that causes the air to sink and warm beneath it.

The block may have developed in response to a sudden warming at high levels of the atmosphere in February. The "sudden stratospheric warming" disrupted the polar vortex, a pool of frigid air that kept Greenland chilly through the core winter months.

But once the vortex was jostled in late February, it reshuffled weather patterns, allowing more of the cold air lodged over the Arctic to sink toward the mid-latitudes. The development of high pressure over Greenland is a frequent response to sudden stratospheric warming events.

"You really see this high-pressure system sitting right there," said Marco Tedesco, a researcher at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.

"If you think about the way it spins, it's basically sucking up all the warm air from northeast Canada and then it's putting it on the ice sheet."

Tedesco said such high-pressure systems over Greenland occur at some frequency and appeared during melt events in 2012, 2018 and 2019. He said this March event reminded him of the unusually late heat wave in September, which caused extensive melting for the first time on record in that month.

The heat may not induce extensive melting across the ice sheet right now, but Tedesco said it could make it more vulnerable to for future heat waves. For instance, it could reduce the amount of fresh, white snowfall at the beginning of the melt season, which helps cover bare ice on the surface.

...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/300825068/greenland-temperatures-surge-up-to-28c-above-normal-setting-records

[gerontocrat]

DMI's polar portal has gone offline. No Greenland data.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 8 March 2023

SMB A quiet few days since the big precipitation in late Feb, and looks like pretty dry for the next few days.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 447GT, which is 43GT (11%) above the previous 5 years average of 404GT.

This is in line with climate scientists forecasts for AGW to increased precipitation to in turn increase the annual SMB until such time higher temperatures produce more rain on snow events and increased melting fom insolation.

Melt On 3 to 5 March there was also unusual measurable melt in the South East coast , giving tiny blips on the melt graph.

the current Greenland blocking high will keep temperatures above average and block precipitation for the next few days
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 21 March 2023

A high over Greenland for some time has kept precipitation at bay and very cold conditions peventing melt apart from small amounts of sublimation at times on coastal regions.

SMB Very dry over the last two weeks, and looks like staying pretty dry for the next few days.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 453GT, which is 26GT (6%) above the previous 5 years average of 427GT.

The DMI image shows accumulated SMB close to the longterm average.

Melt is basically zero in March.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 1 April 2023

A high over Greenland for some time has kept precipitation at bay and very cold conditions peventing melt apart from small amounts of sublimation at times on coastal regions.

SMB Continued mostly dry over the last two weeks, and looks like staying pretty dry for the next 3 to 5 days.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 458GT, which is 11GT (3%) above the previous 5 years average of 447GT.

However the DMI image shows accumulated SMB now less than the longterm average.

Melt is basically zero in March and on this day.

There may be a significant change after day 5 (according to GFS data in climate reanalyzer), The high over NW Europe strengthens, while the Greenland High greatly weakens and retreats North to the Central Arctic north of Greenland. This blocks significant Atlantic lows heading into NW Europe, and sends them insterad heading towards Greenland and the Greenland Sea.

This may bring increased precipitation and warmth especially to coastal Southern Greenalnd, with odd days of minor melt and perhaps even some "rain on snow". Will Spring spring?

PS: Note how Climate Reanalyser has changed the way its analyses the outlook forecasts.
Instead of days 1-3, 1-5 and 1-10 averages,
the data is shown as
Days 1-3 averages,
Days 4-6 averages,
Days 7-10 averages.

Much more useful in showing the change forecast over time.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 8 April 2023

SMB A high over Greenland for some time has kept precipitation at bay and very cold conditions peventing melt apart from small amounts of sublimation at times on coastal regions. This high looks like being weaker in the forecasts for the next week,

After the high precipitation on the 8th April it looks like mostly dryish for the next week or so.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 471GT, which is 12GT (3%) above the previous 5 years average of 459GT.

However the DMI image shows accumulated SMB still less than the longterm average.

Melt is basically zero in March and in April to date.

Measurable melt may occur from time to time over the next week or so as warmth creeps northwards onto coastal regions on both the East and West.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Greenland ice Sheet Mass Loss

JPL at last has restarted the monthly update of GRACE-FO data of ice sheet mass loss - latest is to Mid November 2022.

I attach two images.
The first graph is mass loss from 2002, currently at 5,250 GigaTonnes.
The second graph combines mass loss data with Surface Mass Balance Change (SMB), i.e. snowfall less surface melt, from DMI data, which DMI provide from 2018. This allows an estimate of mass loss from below surface ice sheet melt on land and calving plus melting of marine terminating glaciers.

No major surprises on these graphs since the large mass loss in 2019.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 12 April 2023

There are signs that the Arctic spring has reached Southern Greenland, bringing with it warmth and moist air.

SMB A high over Greenland for some time had kept precipitation at bay and very cold conditions prevented melt apart from small amounts of sublimation at times on coastal regions. It weakened and high precipitation occurred from the 8th to the 10th, including what looks like significant sublimation on the SW coast.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 486GT, which is 15GT (3%) above the previous 5 years average of 471GT. DMI data shows accumulated SMB now slightly more than the longterm average.

Melt was basically zero in March and in April to the 9th. But in the last 3 days there has been small but visible melt on the SE coast.

Measurable but small melt looks like occuring on most days over the next week or so as warmth creeps northwards onto coastal regions on both the East and West.

The forecast is for the Greenland high to weaken over the next few days allowing more precipitation and then strengthening afterwards, that may mean sunny days and strengthening melt.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 17 April 2023

There are more signs signs that the Arctic spring has reached Southern Greenland.

SMBThe high over Greenland looks like being maintained for the next week or so, limiting precipitation.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 491GT, which is 4GT (1%) above the previous 5 years average of 487GT. DMI data shows accumulated SMB now slightly less than the longterm average.

Melt was basically zero in March and in April to the 9th. But in the last week days there has been small but visible and slightly increasing melt on the SE coast.

Measurable and slightly increasing melt looks like occuring on most days over the next week or so as warmth creeps northwards onto coastal regions on both the East and West, as the Greenland high may mean sunny days and strengthening melt.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 29 April 2023

SMB Below average precipitation over the last two weeks.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 504GT, which is 5GT (1%) below the previous 5 years average of 509 . DMI data shows accumulated SMB still slightly less than the longterm average.

Melt was basically zero in March and in April to the 9th. But there has been small but visible and slightly increasing melt on the SE coast to mod month and then daily melt has gradually reduced.

The high over Greenland looks like being maintained for the few days, and then collapse,which may allow higher precipitation. Daily melt may slowly increase as Spring advances.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 30 April & 1 May 2023

An event, small but maybe significant, happened over the last two days; SMB reduced, only by a little but well in advance of when SMB losses usually occur. Seems to be because the Greenland High has kept precipitation at bay, and although melt has been very low there has been considerable sublimation.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 504GT, which is 7GT (2%) below the previous 5 years average of 511 . DMI data also shows accumulated SMB still slightly less than the longterm average. This is contrary to the models that expect increased snowfall until increased warmth turns enough precipitation into rain.

Melt was basically zero in March and in April to the 9th. But there has been small but visible and slightly increasing melt on the SE coast to mid-month and then daily melt has gradually reduced.

The high over Greenland looks like being maintained for the few days, and then collapse,which may allow higher precipitation. Daily melt may slowly increase as Spring advances.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 9 May 2023

Current SMB cumulative gain is 51GT, which is 9 GT (2%) below the previous 5 years average of 520 GT. DMI data also shows accumulated SMB still quite a bit less than the longterm average. This is contrary to the models that expect snowfall to increase until increased warmth turns enough precipitation into rain.

Daily Melt looks to be a bit below average, with the highest daily melt on this day.

The high in Greenland looks like gradually strengthening over the next week or so that may make Greenland dryer and sunnier, alowing daily melt to increase, but not to a major extent.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 16 May 2023

Current SMB cumulative gain is 528GT, which is 6 GT (1%) below the previous 5 years average of 522 GT. DMI data also shows accumulated SMB still quite a bit less than the longterm average. This is contrary to the models that expect snowfall to increase until increased warmth turns enough precipitation into rain.

Daily Melt continues to be somewhat below average.

The high in Greenland is extremely weak and looks like staying that way, allowing some precipitation while melt looks like remaining subdued.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 20 May 2023

High SMB daily gain on 19th and 20th May.
Current SMB cumulative gain is 535GT, which is 5 GT (1%) above the previous 5 years average of 530 GT, while DMI data shows accumulated SMB still quite a bit less than the longterm average. This is contrary to the models that expect snowfall to increase until increased warmth turns enough precipitation into rain.

Daily Melt continues to be somewhat below average though slowly increasing.

The high in Greenland is extremely weak and more like a low, and looks like staying that way, allowing some precipitation while melt looks like remaining subdued at least for the next week.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss
JPL have updated Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Gains & Losses, latest is to mid February 2023.

Cumulative icesheet mass loss currently somewhat below the linear trend.

Cobining this with DMI SMB data shows that since GRACE-FO monthly data started in October 2018, the cumulative increase in SMB has been a bit under 2,000 GT, the mass loss from calving and melt of marine terminating glaciers has been just under 3,000 GT, giving a net icesheet mass loss over the last 4 years and 4 months of 1,000 GT.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 16 May 2023

Current SMB cumulative gain is 549GT, which is 9 GT (2%) above the previous 5 years average of 540 GT. while  DMI data shows accumulated SMB still quite a bit less than the longterm average.

Daily Melt continues to be considerably below average.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 31 May 2023

For a change an interesting day yesterday on Greenland. Not only well above average precipitation, but also the first real melt event of the 2023  melting season, with melt recorded over 10% of the land area.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 559GT, which is 11 GT (2%) above the previous 5 years average of 548 GT, while  DMI data shows accumulated SMB still a bit less than the longterm average.

Daily Melt higher than average for this one day in contrast to melting to date.

click images to enlarge

[prokaryotes]

Is anyone plotting the melting to peat fires? Searching the forum has only a few posts so far.

Nikolaos Evangeliou talks about the peat fires in Greenland (2018 presentation), starting minute 10:40 - corresponds to the melt pattern.
https://earthclimate.tv/video/wildfires-the-climate-and-peat-fires-in-greenland-2018/

[gerontocrat]

Peat Fires? Something might become news in late summer?

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 1 June 2023

And a 2nd interesting day yesterday on Greenland. Even higher precipitation, and also higher melt, covering 12% of the land area of Greenland.
 
Current SMB cumulative gain is 564GT, which is 15 GT (3%) above the previous 5 years average of 549 GT, while  DMI data shows accumulated SMB still a tiny bit less than the longterm average.

Daily Melt higher than average for two days in contrast to melting to 30th May.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 3 June 2023

4 days of above average precipitation, and 4 days of melt each covering 12% of the land area of Greenland, which is higher than the long-term average but less than the average of the last 5 years.
 
Current SMB cumulative gain is 568GT, which is 17 GT (3%) above the previous 5 years average of 551 GT, while DMI data shows accumulated SMB still a tiny bit less than the longterm average.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 8 June 2023

Not a lot of change over the last 5 days, melt slowed a bit, smb gains a bit above average.
 
Current SMB cumulative gain is 576GT, which is 22 GT (4%) above the previous 5 years average of 554 GT, while DMI data shows accumulated SMB still a tiny bit less than the longterm average.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

DMI Images as at 13 June,
DMI Data (and my graphs) as at 12 June. Irritating but ho hum.

Not a lot of change over the last 5 days, daily melt increased a bit (June 13 highest so far this year), daily smb gains well above average.
 
Current SMB cumulative gain is 587GT, which is 31 GT (6%) above the previous 5 years average of 556 GT, while DMI data shows accumulated SMB is now more than the longterm average.

The DMI daily SMB map shows the mixture of SMB gain and SMB melt.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

DMI Images as at 15 June,
No DMI Data since June 12 (so no graphs) as at 12 June. Irritating but ho hum.

Daily melt & daily smb gains well above average in the last 2 days.
 
DMI data shows accumulated SMB is now more than the longterm average.

The DMI daily SMB maps show the mixture of SMB gain and SMB melt.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

DMI Images as at 21 June,
No DMI Data since June 12 (so no gero produced graphs) as at 12 June. DMI emailed to say they are putting everything on a new supercomputer and the third party doing the conversion screwed up the data transfer, so the data is in cyberspace somewhere.

Daily melt above and below average in the last week
Daily smb gains mostly well above average in the last week.
 
DMI data shows accumulated SMB is now well above the longterm average, and growing well after average date SMB losses start.

gif attached of daily melt to date - some days missing.

click gif to start, runs 6 times.
Click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

We might have lost DMI SMB and Melt data, but Greenland Today at NSIDC produces a spreadsheet on melt at nsidc.org/greenland-today/

The Greenland melt season so far is slow.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

DMI SMB and Melt data is back online after a 10 day outage.

Cumulative SMB this year is now 611 GT, 56GT (10%) higher than the 5 year average of 554GT. This is well above the longterm average maximum gain of around 580GT. The lack of a strong Greenland High continues to allow significant precipitation especially in the South.

Daily Melt has increased in the last few days, but cumulative melt still lags behind the 5 year average.

[grixm]

Looks like a big melt yesterday

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 26th June

DMI SMB and Melt data came back, went back offline again, and has reappeared again.

Daily Melt has increased in the last few days, with a big spike on the 26th, but cumulative melt still lags behind the 5 year average.

Despite this increased melt, SMG gains continue, as the Greenland High (when it is there at all) is too weak to stop incoming precipitation from the Atlantic especially in the South. As a result cumulative SMB this year is now 619 GT, 68GT (12%) higher than the 5 year average of 551GT. and well above the longterm average. On average daily SMB change turns from gains to losses about 10 days before now.

There is a possibility of the Greenland High establishing itself fairly strongly in about a week's time. Until then it looks like further SMB gains are likely.

gif of last 30 days melt attached, runs 6 times. Last few frames slowed down a bit.

[gerontocrat]

And here is the Accumulated SMB map and graph from DMI.

[gerontocrat]

The daily melt is spectacular on June 27.

But SMB gains continue.

No DMI (or Greenland Today) numerical data for the 27th yet.

[gerontocrat]

The daily melt is even more spectacular on June 28.

Precipitation continues, but on this day run-off from recent melt exceeds precipitation so there is an SMB loss, whuch may (or may not) be the start of sustained reductions in the SMB balance.

Still no DMI numerical data since the 26th June.

Gif of last 2 weeks melt attached, click to start, runs 6 times

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Greenland Today just updated teir spreadsheet to the 28r=th June.

While DMI shows daily melt even higher reaching nearly 60% of the total area of the GIS, Greenland Today shows a drop to 35%. Odd to see such a big deviation. Different satellites, different resolutions?

[Alexander555]

The last one ? If you have 60 % of total surface today, and 40 % tomorrow. He moves up 1 in 2 days. Is that correct ? So in 2012 you had 28 times melt equivalent of  the total surface ?

[gerontocrat]

Correct, Alexander - equivalent to 28 days of 100% melt, but not for 24 hours in each day.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 29th June

Daily Melt has increased to extreme levels in the last 4 days, but cumulative melt still lags behind the 5 year average but rapidly catching up.

In the next few days Greenland temperatures look high enough to maintain fairly strong but not extreme melt. But after a week there could be more extreme melt - but the forecasts that far out are unreliable.

Despite this increased melt, SMB losses that started on the 28th, are below average. As a result cumulative SMB this year is now 617 GT, 70GT (13%) higher than the 5 year average of 547GT. and well above the longterm average. On average daily SMB change turned from gains to losses about 14 days before now.

The Greenland High does not look strong enough to prevent incoming precipitation, especially from the West. But this looks like including substantial rain on snow that could accelerate SMB losses.

[gerontocrat]

Gif of Greenland melt 20th June to July 1. The sustained extreme melt of the last 5 days is two weeks before the average maximum melt in mid-July. It is also unusual in the extent of melt in the far North.

It also looks like being quite dry over Greenaland for the enxt week or so, with occasional precipitation coming from the West and SouthWest across baffin bay, including significant rain on snow penetrating a fair way inland. This should encourage both melt and run-off perhaps leading to high daily SMB losses.

EDIT: Images of daily and accumulated SMB added

Click gif to start, runs 6 times.

[gerontocrat]

DMI Numerical data has turned up - now up to 1 July. (seems they have switched from daily to multi-day updates of the data files).

The melt graph is extremely impressive for this early in the season. In record territory perhaps.

SMB losses still lag behind the average. Net SMB daily change is additions through precipitation less run-off. While the measure of precipitation (i.e. additions to SMB) may well be fairly accurate, run-off must be very much based on an algorithm. The problems to solve must include:-
- how much melt and/or rain on snow just soaks into snow cover, or sinks down moulins to the base?
- how long is the delay between melt and run-off reaching the coast?

DMI runs on a very tight budget. The recent emails where I asked if they could produce additional datasets have been mostly answered with "We would if we had funding". So continuous measures of run-off over many locations seem to be impossible for DMI. Maybe they use satellite data to measure change in elevation over the GIS as part of the calculation?

[gerontocrat]

This post is just to show how in Greenland this season of low melt and high SMB gains has reversed to SMB losses and high melt in just the last 5 days.

click gifs to start, run 6 times.

[gerontocrat]

July 3rd

For a 7th day running melt affects more than 50% of Greenland, 6 days at more than 55%.

SMB losses for a 2nd day well above average, though accumulated SMB well above average still.

[gerontocrat]

July 4th

For a 8th day running melt affects more than 50% of Greenland, 7 days at more than 55%.

SMB losses for a 3rd day well above average, though accumulated SMB well above average still.

Sustained melt at this level in early July must be entering record territory.
Later a look at Greenland Today data - though their melt data seems to be somewhat lower than for DMI

[gerontocrat]

As at July 5th

Melt continues at its elevated rate -see gif

SMB reduces quickly for a 3rd day

[HapHazard]

It's been interesting watching the melt ponds forming on Greenland via Worldview.

[gerontocrat]

It's been interesting watching the melt ponds forming on Greenland via Worldview.

I've just posted the latest image from Freya Glacier on the Freya Glacier thread - melt ponds and snowcover loss.

What would be nice is a sort-of SMOS view of Greenland.

[gerontocrat]

Melt on 6th July even higher - above 60%. Annoyingly, numerical data from DMI not updated yet.

Impressive rain on snow in the mid-West of Greenland.

[sidd]

Saddle at 67N is melting

sidd

[lurkalot]

Would it be useful/feasible to produce a monthly or quarterly plot of the altitude of the ice on the saddle, perhaps also showing the equilibrium line altitude?

[gerontocrat]

Would it be useful/feasible to produce a monthly or quarterly plot of the altitude of the ice on the saddle, perhaps also showing the equilibrium line altitude?

Far higher than my paygrade. No reference to this in DMI portal.

Menaswhile,

Data as at July 7.

Despite even higher daily melt - 65.8% of GIS area on 7th July, SMB loss a bit below average due to relatively high precipitation for the time of year.

Daily melt above 50% for 11 days in a row. This may well be approaching a record for sustained melt this high for this long - except for 2012.
Accumulated melt now well above the 2017-2022 average.

melt gif attached, runs 6 times, click to start.

[HapHazard]

Wow.