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Author Topic: The 2022/2023 freezing season  (Read 4552 times)

Freegrass

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The 2022/2023 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2022, 03:08:01 PM »
I think it's time to call it.

Here's the 365 day HYCOM gif to start off a new season.
Very Large Gif!
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oren

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2022, 05:34:29 PM »
Thanks. I prefer to wait another day or two for the switchover, the thread can remain but not stickied.

oren

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2022, 08:17:55 AM »
On to freezing. The very useful AWI SIC-Leads animation shows freezing of the previously-open water near the Pole, and in the CAB sections facing the Chukchi, the New Siberian islands and Severnaya Zemliya. The Greenand Sea also appears to be solidifying.
Elsewhere, Lincoln sea ice still flowing down the Nares but is no longer melting out immediately, and the CAA sort-of Garlic Press continuing but exported ice is slowly taking a foothold in previously open water.
Meanwhile, southern Beaufort still seems weak and southern ESS still somewhat melting.
DMI N of 80 chart shows the temperature drop that's behind the freezing in the central CAB.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2022, 12:17:30 PM »
September 16-20.

2021.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2022, 12:35:51 PM »
Meanwhile I'm still intrigued to see what effect ex Typhoon Merbok has on the sea ice in the ESS:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/09/facts-about-the-arctic-in-september-2022/#Sep-18

However the refreeze north of Chukchi/Beaufort is very evident in this close up animation!

[Click to enlarge/animate]
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2022, 04:04:02 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

It looks like the Gyre is getting fired up early this year with a turbo boost... Not sure how the ice will react to this, other then that the last of the MYI will start to move towards the Beaufort sea already.
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Phil.

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 12:35:29 AM »
Looks like the remains of Hurricane Fiona will be traveling up Baffin Bay early next week which could be interesting.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 11:57:31 AM »
September 18-22.

2021.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2022, 09:43:09 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I added the 30 day HYCOM, which shows how the MYI is moving towards to Beaufort sea with this strong wind. There it'll have a bigger chance to get caught into the Beaufort gyre during winter, giving us a similar situation like we had in 2020/21 with the flute playing mouse...

Curious to see if that tick ice in the Lincoln sea will be able to block the Nares strait this winter.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2022, 01:35:14 PM »
September 20-24.

2021.

oren

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2022, 04:47:12 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I added the 30 day HYCOM, which shows how the MYI is moving towards to Beaufort sea with this strong wind. There it'll have a bigger chance to get caught into the Beaufort gyre during winter, giving us a similar situation like we had in 2020/21 with the flute playing mouse...

Curious to see if that tick ice in the Lincoln sea will be able to block the Nares strait this winter.
Unfortunately that thick ice does not exist in the Lincoln, and is a model artifact, IMO. Lincoln has been exporting down the Nares all year, and the remaining Greenland ex-fast ice is about to wash down the strait as we speak. The Nares is hard to model due to its narrow width and the typical coarseness of grid resolutions.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2022, 06:10:20 PM »
     Does the opening of the GL megacrack (lifting of land-fast ice from shore) increase Nares export?
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2022, 10:01:05 PM »
NOAA ESRL initial and then 5 day forecast image indicating that the older "pink" thick ice (>1.6m thick) is sliding down towards the Beaufort. Likely to melt there next summer as the Beaufort is no longer capable of retaining old ice.

Click to run

oren

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2022, 10:47:43 PM »
AWI SIC-Leads animation.

Every week I post this and stare at the Lincoln-Nares export machine. It's been going on nonstop.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2022, 11:07:09 PM »
AWI SIC-Leads animation.

Every week I post this and stare at the Lincoln-Nares export machine. It's been going on nonstop.
I love these animations Oren, and the movement of the thick MYI towards the beaufort sea is clearly visible now. Later on in the freezing season, that ice will have a lot less freedom to move as it's being pinned against the coast by the rest of the ice pack. So the distance it moves right now matters.

Nares transport is indeed making it unlikely that there's thick ice in the Lincoln sea like HYCOM is showing.
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morganism

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2022, 11:55:27 PM »
Weather: An early disruption event is starting for the Polar Vortex, with pressure anomalies setting the stage for something bigger later in Winter

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-early-disruptive-event-winter-influence-united-states-europe-fa/

"But besides directly affecting the Polar Vortex, the pressure anomalies in the next days/weeks will also put another process in motion that can be even more disruptive for the Winter polar circulation. You will see how having more snow in October can mean more snow and cold in the Winter."



baltic dweller

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2022, 11:06:20 AM »
A fresh satellite photo of the Vil'kitsky Strait. Would this be considered officially the closing of the Northeast Passage this year?

Aluminium

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2022, 12:48:24 PM »
September 22-28.

2021.

phelan

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2022, 04:43:02 PM »
Looks from Aluminium's animation like the Northern Sea Route is just about to close, if it hasn't already.  Is it that happening a bit earlier this year compared to recent years?

EDIT - I'm sorry Baltic Dweller, I scrolled up to check and still missed your post.  Thanks for the detailed image...
« Last Edit: September 29, 2022, 06:56:11 PM by phelan »

oren

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2022, 05:46:11 PM »
A fresh satellite photo of the Vil'kitsky Strait. Would this be considered officially the closing of the Northeast Passage this year?

Welcome, baltic dweller. The first post is the hardest...

As you can see the same issue was raised by phelan.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2022/2023 freezing season
« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2022, 06:12:20 PM »
Looks from Aluminium's animation like the Northern Sea Route is just about to close, if it hasn't already.

It's not quite there yet:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2022/#Sep-29

IMHO!

P.S. Sorry Baltic Dweller - I just scrolled up again!
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