The 2022/2023 freezing season

[Paul]

In reference to Jdallens comments, I don't quite share the same concerns, I think with the exception of the Barants sea, the refreeze season has not been too much out of the ordinary. If the Beaufort ice is weaker than the previous few years whether its down to lack of multi year ice or another reason then that is something to watch of course as we head through spring. There has been some notable cold at times over the basin especially in the ESS and Laptev seas, whether the below average temperatures end up helping the ice time will tell but as it stands, unless something extreme happens in the summer, then I'm not anticipating the record being broken in September although never say never of hitting a record low during the melt season itself.

Back to the short term, looks like some cold will hit the Barants sea, may give the extent numbers a little boost it nothing else. May see some more cracking events in the Beaufort with the strong offshore winds developing also.

[Sublime_Rime]

1) Thickness over wide areas of the basin appears to be down sharply.

Does anyone have recent data on overall ASI thickness? Particularly in graphical form, compared with previous years?

[jdallen]

In reference to Jdallens comments, I don't quite share the same concerns, I think with the exception of the Barants sea, the refreeze season has not been too much out of the ordinary. If the Beaufort ice is weaker than the previous few years whether its down to lack of multi year ice or another reason then that is something to watch of course as we head through spring. There has been some notable cold at times over the basin especially in the ESS and Laptev seas, whether the below average temperatures end up helping the ice time will tell but as it stands, unless something extreme happens in the summer, then I'm not anticipating the record being broken in September although never say never of hitting a record low during the melt season itself.

Back to the short term, looks like some cold will hit the Barants sea, may give the extent numbers a little boost it nothing else. May see some more cracking events in the Beaufort with the strong offshore winds developing also.

Cold over the Barents… too little too late.  Heat can’t leave the system fast enough at this stage of the season.  Boost to extent and area from such a freeze will not help slow things in the coming melt season.

Refreeze not out of the ordinary - I can agree with you there, in as much as the implied heat loss through this season is not notably less than in the past, nor is the volume of ice created that significantly less than in past years.

However, I’ll draw your attention back to the ice distribution, which is significantly different.  That’s why I was inquiring elsewhere about map masks and regional ice numbers for the peripheral seas.

There *is* greater extent and area in some peripheral seas than has been present in recent years in the Bering, Okhotsk, Greenland and Baffin/Gulf of St. Lawrence.  Eliminate those and compare the rest of the Arctic with past years and I think we have a different picture.  If nothing else, export through the Fram has been pretty extraordinary this year.  All that area and extent will be gone by August. 
Ditto the other seas.

So can I extrapolate from this to a new SIA/SIE low record?  No, but i think I can conclude that the core Arctic pack is going to start the melt season in a seriously weakened state, possibly as bad as it was in 2013, or worse.  The question will be, as in 2013, whether early season conditions are friendly enough to save the pack.

[oren]

1) Thickness over wide areas of the basin appears to be down sharply.

Does anyone have recent data on overall ASI thickness? Particularly in graphical form, compared with previous years?

Our resident wizard Steven has this site with all sorts of regional volume data, which I recommend to bookmark.
https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice

Here are some regional charts based on Cryosat-SMOS. (Note: sometimes they don't show up for me, due to Google misbehaving).

[oren]

And here are some regional charts based on PIOMAS data:

(If no one can see them, let me know and I will replace with attached screenshots).

[Paul]

In reference to Jdallens comments, I don't quite share the same concerns, I think with the exception of the Barants sea, the refreeze season has not been too much out of the ordinary. If the Beaufort ice is weaker than the previous few years whether its down to lack of multi year ice or another reason then that is something to watch of course as we head through spring. There has been some notable cold at times over the basin especially in the ESS and Laptev seas, whether the below average temperatures end up helping the ice time will tell but as it stands, unless something extreme happens in the summer, then I'm not anticipating the record being broken in September although never say never of hitting a record low during the melt season itself.

Back to the short term, looks like some cold will hit the Barants sea, may give the extent numbers a little boost it nothing else. May see some more cracking events in the Beaufort with the strong offshore winds developing also.

Cold over the Barents… too little too late.  Heat can’t leave the system fast enough at this stage of the season.  Boost to extent and area from such a freeze will not help slow things in the coming melt season.

Refreeze not out of the ordinary - I can agree with you there, in as much as the implied heat loss through this season is not notably less than in the past, nor is the volume of ice created that significantly less than in past years.

However, I’ll draw your attention back to the ice distribution, which is significantly different.  That’s why I was inquiring elsewhere about map masks and regional ice numbers for the peripheral seas.

There *is* greater extent and area in some peripheral seas than has been present in recent years in the Bering, Okhotsk, Greenland and Baffin/Gulf of St. Lawrence.  Eliminate those and compare the rest of the Arctic with past years and I think we have a different picture.  If nothing else, export through the Fram has been pretty extraordinary this year.  All that area and extent will be gone by August. 
Ditto the other seas.

So can I extrapolate from this to a new SIA/SIE low record?  No, but i think I can conclude that the core Arctic pack is going to start the melt season in a seriously weakened state, possibly as bad as it was in 2013, or worse.  The question will be, as in 2013, whether early season conditions are friendly enough to save the pack.

For me the start of the 2017 and 2020 melt seasons I found more concerning than now. 2017 with its lowest on record volume by some distance and 2020 with notably thinner ice in the Siberian regions. If there is a lack of multi year ice in the Beaufort then yeah that will be one to watch and the barants situation will be interesting to observe but 2018 also low extent here but the ice edge did not move much northwards during the melting season i recalled.

[Sublime_Rime]

Our resident wizard Steven has this site with all sorts of regional volume data, which I recommend to bookmark.
https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice

These are priceless! Thank you Oren and Steven!

From the Cryosat (which I tend to trust more) the volumes in the ESS, Beaufort and CAA were lower than I expected, and indeed quite concerning. As well as the relatively high volume part of the CAB that is likely to get flushed out of the Fram (I remember someone commenting on this upthread). Along with the Barents anomaly, that has already been commented on extensively, I agree with jdallen that this is not a good setup going into the melt season.

I will be keeping a close eye on Steven's site until Cryosat goes offline in a month or so.

[jdallen]

1) Thickness over wide areas of the basin appears to be down sharply.

Does anyone have recent data on overall ASI thickness? Particularly in graphical form, compared with previous years?

Our resident wizard Steven has this site with all sorts of regional volume data, which I recommend to bookmark.
<snippage>

Outstanding!

It seems in general terms, some of what I'm saying is being borne out.    Certainly (referring back to Paul's comments) there are seas which  it seems are in the "ball park" with 2017/18 and 2020/21.

I shall have to delve more.

[uniquorn]

cs2smos (satellite) and hycom (modelled) thickness comparison, mar2

[Glen Koehler]

     I tried to compare the two estimates but kept getting crossed up by color confusions.   Too bad the two charts use opposing color scales, i.e. one goes from red to blue for low to high, and the other goes from blue to red.  I suppose it is not realistic to have coordinated scaling for different products and programs.  But it would be nice.  "Can't we all get along?" ~ Rodney King

[uniquorn]

The hycom scale is too complex for a simple comparison of that kind imo.

ascat, jan1-mar3

[gerontocrat]

Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW)

Looks like a double header, as some did forecast, despite temperature at 10hPa and 30hPa somewhat less above average than a few days ago as 10hPa average zonal winds have switched from Westerly to Easterly again to nearly as far South as 50 degrees North and at 30hPa as far South as 60 degrees North.

Perhaps one of the reasons for cooling forecast to settle in on the Atlantic front and Northern Europe for several days and much above average temperatures in Greenland, Baffin Bay and Eastern Canada?

click images to enlarge

[HapHazard]

Looks that way, Gero.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-blocking-system-polar-vortex-collapse-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[nadir]

The hycom scale is too complex for a simple comparison of that kind imo.

ascat, jan1-mar3

The Beaufort sea ice looks indeed vulnerable this year. If it breaks early enough near the coasts… should anticyclonic weather prevail in Spring, it’d get really interesting.

Also, per C2SMOS the ice on the entire Pacific side and ESS/Laptev seas have not particularly thickened by now.

[Steven]

     I tried to compare the two estimates but kept getting crossed up by color confusions.   Too bad the two charts use opposing color scales, i.e. one goes from red to blue for low to high, and the other goes from blue to red.

Here is a comparison of the different thickness estimates (CryoSat, HYCOM and PIOMAS) using a single map projection and color scheme:

[binntho]

     I tried to compare the two estimates but kept getting crossed up by color confusions.   Too bad the two charts use opposing color scales, i.e. one goes from red to blue for low to high, and the other goes from blue to red.

Here is a comparison of the different thickness estimates (CryoSat, HYCOM and PIOMAS) using a single map projection and color scheme:

Surprisingly large differences between the three!

[nadir]

     I tried to compare the two estimates but kept getting crossed up by color confusions.   Too bad the two charts use opposing color scales, i.e. one goes from red to blue for low to high, and the other goes from blue to red.

Here is a comparison of the different thickness estimates (CryoSat, HYCOM and PIOMAS) using a single map projection and color scheme:

Wow. Any explanation to the big difference over Western CAB and Beaufort/Chukchi? Any reason to expect Piomas be better than Cryosat observations or viceversa? The thickness in that region or lack thereof could make a huge difference.

[Glen Koehler]

     I tried to compare the two estimates but kept getting crossed up by color confusions.   Too bad the two charts use opposing color scales, i.e. one goes from red to blue for low to high, and the other goes from blue to red.

Here is a comparison of the different thickness estimates (CryoSat, HYCOM and PIOMAS) using a single map projection and color scheme:

   You are a wizard Steven.  Thanks!
    Striking differences between the values for Beaufort, Chukchi, and Laptev Seas.  With PIOMAS >  HYCOM > CryoSat. 
     I know CryoSat does not work properly in the summer but it's too early for that.  I thought there were recent improvements in the algorithms used to infer freeboard and ice thickness from melt-pond covered and snow-covered floes.   Maybe these different measurments are due to systems being at different stages of incorporating new interpretational methods.  Whatever the explanation, a difference of 2M vs 1M thickness for some rather large areas seems like more than inevitable noise in the data.

     If CryoSat is correct, melt on the Asian side should get off to a fast start this year.  If PIOMAS is correct then I am clutching my pearls about the Nares Strait leak even more than before.

[uniquorn]

smos showing a fairly persistent thinner area drifting south from 80N -150. jan1-mar4

[nadir]

smos showing a fairly persistent thinner area drifting south from 80N -150. jan1-mar4

Intriguing. Can that be caused by Pacific water jetted from Bering straight -> Barrow Canyon -> Chukchi/Beaufort sea as it was seen in Fall? The weather has been strongly anticyclonic over the Arctic side and persistently cyclonic over Bering sea side for Dec to Feb. That would favor continuous inflow at Bering for Dec/Jan/Feb. The question is if the water entering into Beaufort sea is warm enough at this time of the year and is able to persist close to the surface instead of sinking quickly.

Definitely this would be something PIOMAS model probably wouldn’t account for.

[uniquorn]

Can that be caused by Pacific water jetted from Bering straight -> Barrow Canyon -> Chukchi/Beaufort sea as it was seen in Fall?

I think it is more about the existing water than new incoming, although that wouldn't help. There was also the record low pressure event in october which came with this warning from FOoW.

That intense storm drove a powerful surge in the intensity of the Alaskan coastal current. That current advects warm water from the Bering sea into the Beaufort sea north of Alaska's north slope. The location of the storm over relatively shallow water on the continental shelf prevented upwelling from the warm Atlantic water layer. Because of the Coriolis effect the longer term effects of this storm will be warming of upper layers of the Beaufort sea waters.

and data from a TOP buoy near the area, though the warm eddy may have been a more local event.




There are no active itp profilers in the area so it's not possible to say definitively if any upper layer warming has occurred.

[nadir]

Can that be caused by Pacific water jetted from Bering straight -> Barrow Canyon -> Chukchi/Beaufort sea as it was seen in Fall?

I think it is more about the existing water than new incoming, although that wouldn't help. There was also the record low pressure event in october which came with this warning from FOoW.

That intense storm drove a powerful surge in the intensity of the Alaskan coastal current. That current advects warm water from the Bering sea into the Beaufort sea north of Alaska's north slope. The location of the storm over relatively shallow water on the continental shelf prevented upwelling from the warm Atlantic water layer. Because of the Coriolis effect the longer term effects of this storm will be warming of upper layers of the Beaufort sea waters.

and data from a TOP buoy near the area, though the warm eddy may have been a more local event.
[…]

There are no active itp profilers in the area so it's not possible to say definitively if any upper layer warming has occurred.

Thank you, also for reminding that post from FooW.

I wonder how many times PIOMAS has let us down, like 5-10 years ago without anybody’s knowledge …

[jdallen]

Can that be caused by Pacific water jetted from Bering straight -> Barrow Canyon -> Chukchi/Beaufort sea as it was seen in Fall?

I think it is more about the existing water than new incoming, although that wouldn't help. There was also the record low pressure event in october which came with this warning from FOoW.

Concur - this is more about heat in place than new heat coming in from the Bering, combined with anemic thickening of the ice due to weather.  (Not as bad as some years but not good.)

[johnm33]

I disagree, from around the full moon in early oct. the weather set up has been more or less conducive to accelerated interchange of tidal waters through Fram. That is almost certain to cause more incoming through Bering, since the outflow at Fram coincides with the inflow at Bering. Then there's the delivery of AW across Barents to Laptev which helps both to reduce pressures in the Nordic seas and helps to force any incoming at Bering further north, since it, or the Arctic waters it displaces, occupies the near shelf position at the ESS. The extra inertia northwards in Chukchi eases the circulation of the gyre and whilst thats often supressed through the winter by heavy ice cover in Amundsen, this year the gulf has kept pumping water west, drawing in more water from N.Beaufort. Beaufort is showing a less saline area near the thin patch which suggests bottom melt too.

[Michael Hauber]

Unusual pulse of warm (or being winter, less cold) air entering the Arctic over Chukchi and Beaufort for the next few days.  Temps may get up to about -5C north of Alaska with decent southerly winds.  Won't be enough to melt any ice, but could be enough to blow ice away from the coast with temperature not cold enough for new ice to form over the open water along the coast, possibly helped by some upwelling from below.  Any open water won't be long lived as after a few days the pattern shifts to a low pressure dropping temps low enough to freeze and also pushing ice towards the coast again.

[binntho]

I disagree, from around the full moon in early oct. the weather set up has been more or less conducive to accelerated interchange of tidal waters through Fram. That is almost certain to cause more incoming through Bering, since the outflow at Fram coincides with the inflow at Bering. Then there's the delivery of AW across Barents to Laptev which helps both to reduce pressures in the Nordic seas and helps to force any incoming at Bering further north, since it, or the Arctic waters it displaces, occupies the near shelf position at the ESS. The extra inertia northwards in Chukchi eases the circulation of the gyre and whilst thats often supressed through the winter by heavy ice cover in Amundsen, this year the gulf has kept pumping water west, drawing in more water from N.Beaufort. Beaufort is showing a less saline area near the thin patch which suggests bottom melt too.

A bit too much of unsupported statements here, with no real backing in the science.

[oren]

A neat animation posted by uniquorn in another thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3702.msg361223.html#msg361223

Click to play.

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). This time with a new format and a newer version of the SIC-LEADS algorithm. More information available in the AWI thread.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

Adding a chart of total AMSR2 area according to AWI (current year in white), source https://sites.google.com/view/sea-ice/startseite
And of the Barents area, the usual winter wildcard.

And DMI temps N of 80, for what it's worth.

[nadir]

Last chance for Barents ice to recover some extent? Really cold stormy conditions to persist according to ECMWF, will suck plenty of ocean energy.

OTOH huge warm anomalies over Greenland and Pacific side. Dipole flow should drag the ice including buoys toward Fram…

[Jim Hunt]

It's obviously far too early to be starting the melting season thread.

However I reckon we now have a plausible candidate for the JAXA maximum extent:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2023/#Maxa

14.12 million km² on both the 2nd and 3rd of March.

[Freegrass]

It's obviously far too early to be starting the melting season thread.

However I reckon we now have a plausible candidate for the JAXA maximum extent:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2023/#Maxa

14.12 million km² on both the 2nd and 3rd of March.

Last year you opened up the melting season thread on March 12, so I would say; go for it.

[oren]

Wait a few more days, no rush.

[Jim Hunt]

Wait a few more days.

Hear, hear!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/the-2023-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-08

For the moment at least:

[michael sweet]

I tried to open the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page and my computer said it could not find the page.  Do you guys  know what happened to that site?

The melt season will be interesting if it is a strong El Nino this year.

[be cause]

whither melting or freezing , the destruction season is well underway . Looking at this month's ice march south toward the Atlantic warmth , I am certain it is the most dramatic movement I have witnessed in my 10 years here . Along the 0' meridian ice has already moved 120 km in 9 days , with the next 9 likely to see similar .
    https://go.nasa.gov/3JsKCJC   .. Worldview of the stampede for the exits .

Fram export has been a constant 150k sqkm/month for over 3 months and looks like being no less this month . We are on target to see 1m sqkm exported before summer . This is different to any other year and I fear will be a cause of great trouble ahead this and future years .

https://doc-14-6s-docs.googleusercontent.com/docs/securesc/uq3j51rtvgsk9tupd1ikp30p1ip1r4oe/i4m4pnuirfjspmjlmgga7uosifcp4t1k   ( help Oren ? )

Just now as a consequence of the above , as I type , I am enjoying a near blizzard in N. Ireland with a bitter NE wind . The impact of the Arctic being so direct and personal has always been the driving force for my interest in weather and climate .

[oren]

I tried to open the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page and my computer said it could not find the page.  Do you guys  know what happened to that site?

The melt season will be interesting if it is a strong El Nino this year.

Here is a part of Neven's response i the Forum section:

It has to do with Google updating Sites:
...
I migrated the old ASIG to the new version, wasn't happy with it, but didn't have the energy/motivation to make it look nice again.

Here's the link to that new Google Sites page: https://sites.google.com/view/asigraphs/home?authuser=1

[kassy]

whither melting or freezing , the destruction season is well underway . Looking at this month's ice march south toward the Atlantic warmth , I am certain it is the most dramatic movement I have witnessed in my 10 years here . Along the 0' meridian ice has already moved 120 km in 9 days , with the next 9 likely to see similar .

...

Farm export has been a constant 150k sqkm/month for over 3 months and looks like being no less this month . We are on target to see 1m sqkm exported before summer . This is different to any other year and I fear will be a cause of great trouble ahead this and future years .

Thanks. Interesting things to look out for the coming months.

[uniquorn]

Unusual pulse of warm (or being winter, less cold) air entering the Arctic over Chukchi and Beaufort for the next few days.  Temps may get up to about -5C north of Alaska with decent southerly winds.  Won't be enough to melt any ice, but could be enough to blow ice away from the coast with temperature not cold enough for new ice to form over the open water along the coast, possibly helped by some upwelling from below.  Any open water won't be long lived as after a few days the pattern shifts to a low pressure dropping temps low enough to freeze and also pushing ice towards the coast again.

That possible upwelling makes the Alaskan coastal current look very strong this year. Quite a break up further north too.

rammb, mar7-10  https://col.st/55zMv

[Jim Hunt]

With only mild trepidation on "Snow White's" behalf:

"The 2023 melting season"

[gerontocrat]

Probably my last post in this thread...

The major SSW that started on 23rd Feb and became a doubleheader is rapidly fading away, as can be seen from the 10 and 30 hPa zonal winds 7 temperature images attached. Temperatures at the North Pole are also back to average for the time of year (graphs not attached).

How long the aftereffects will last is another question. here in the UK the answer is probably - too long.

[oren]

Time to wrap up the season. Thanks to all those who made contributions over the past few months, both recurring ones and one-time efforts.
The season was kinda boring in the first half, then became quite interesting in the second half. We had Nares open through the season, and increased Fram export since the beginning of 2023. Barents also broke some low records recently. General metrics were somewhat in the middle, but started mostly higher and recently were mostly lower. We can and should hope for another ho-hum melting season, though I'm quite sure one of these years will turn into another 2-sigma downward event.
Anyone who wants to post summaries of the season is welcome to do so here. Else, activity should be directed to the melting season thread.
As Espen says, have an ice day!

[nadir]

Time to wrap up the season. Thanks to all those who made contributions over the past few months, both recurring ones and one-time efforts.
The season was kinda boring in the first half, then became quite interesting in the second half. We had Nares open through the season, and increased Fram export since the beginning of 2023. Barents also broke some low records recently. General metrics were somewhat in the middle, but started mostly higher and recently were mostly lower. We can and should hope for another ho-hum melting season, though I'm quite sure one of these years will turn into another 2-sigma downward event.
Anyone who wants to post summaries of the season is welcome to do so here. Else, activity should be directed to the melting season thread.
As Espen says, have an ice day!

Very good summary. I’ll just add the anomalously low thickness of Beaufort/Chukchi/Western CAB revealed by cs2smos these early months of 2023 compared to PIOMAS. Ocean heat anomaly not captured by the model may be responsible. It can be a weak spot during melting season provided early warm weather from Pacific/NA.

[gerontocrat]

I attach the graph showing the daily extent from the 2022 minimum tho the 2023 maximum.

Daily extent stayed close to the 2010's average for the whole season. At times I was asking myself - why am I doing these daily posts?

Mind you, daily extent ended the season with a maximum that was 5th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, and a little bit above the long-term linear trend.

[michael sweet]

Thanks Oren,

Just what I needed.  Have fun watching the new melting season!!