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Author Topic: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?  (Read 3131 times)

Burnrate

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Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« on: December 25, 2022, 03:34:20 AM »
I was looking at the jet stream and in my 20+ years of casually observing it I don't think I've seen this before.  I don't track it on a professional level by any means so maybe this isn't unusual or happens every time a pressure system pushes the cold air of Siberia.  Any thoughts on it would be much appreciated.




longwalks1

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2022, 05:08:14 AM »
Please lock or delete this thread.   Just search for things on Yale Climate connection or things from Jennifer Francis.    There are several general questions threads.

Burnrate

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2022, 05:40:52 AM »
Please lock or delete this thread.   Just search for things on Yale Climate connection or things from Jennifer Francis.    There are several general questions threads.

Sorry if this was the wrong place to post this.  Please let me know if it is and I will happily delete it.  You imply you know the answer to my question so could you answer or point me to something more specific than a news site or a researchers name.  Being intentionally ambiguous harms others with no benefit to yourself.

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #3 on: December 25, 2022, 06:24:30 AM »
I agree, Burnrate. Almost any question could theoretically be answered through enough effort and searching, but this original post about the jet stream does not seem to be a low effort or extremely commonly discussed one, and I don’t think it deserved that degree of hostility right off the bat. The jet stream has indeed been odd lately, and imo it would benefit from additional in depth discussion if anyone had knowledge or insight to share. This forum gets enough distractions via bickering about political wedge issues these days, I would hate to see real ASI/climate topics getting culled, even if niche in scope, while 5 different war and pandemic threads stay active.

Sadly I don’t have any valuable science to provide, but as another curious bystander I wanted to throw my hat in the ring in favor of letting these sort of threads survive or be migrated into another larger topic thread, rather than being locked and pruned outright.

Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2022, 07:40:55 AM »
And not that long ago i was reading somewhere the jet stream was looking normal. That we would get a normal winter. That changed fast.

kassy

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #5 on: December 25, 2022, 09:31:29 AM »
I think it is a good question. Last summer also had an interesting cut off low. How common are they?

I think there might be an article discussing the original question soon but after the event ends.

We shall see.
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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #7 on: December 25, 2022, 08:51:19 PM »
Not an answer here but a metaphor which I've heard around these parts before that the changes our climate is going through due to AGW is akin to a spinning top, in that it wobbles & becomes more erratic as it slows down.

I like these little sub-topics. At the worst they can be moved to more fitting threads, but questions & discourse such as this should be encouraged here.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #8 on: December 25, 2022, 09:45:00 PM »
Not an answer here but a metaphor which I've heard around these parts before that the changes our climate is going through due to AGW is akin to a spinning top, in that it wobbles & becomes more erratic as it slows down.

I like these little sub-topics. At the worst they can be moved to more fitting threads, but questions & discourse such as this should be encouraged here.

Nice metaphor.  But I think starting a new thread for a transient event is a prescription for a fairly chaotic archive.  I'm quite certain that the polar vortex and/or jet stream is within the topic range of existing threads.  E.g.:

polar vortex - where?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,704.msg18206.html#msg18206

kassy

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #9 on: December 25, 2022, 10:25:59 PM »
But that one is about a transient event in 2013/14.

When the volcano blew there were question about the consequences of that.

It is a simple question so the discussion will be short and after that it will slowly drift down the page.

Anyway in the media it was described as a once per generation event. So it probably is not abnormal. Here we do have to keep in mind that there is a lot of variety in the climate system over a long time or simply put if the generation is longer then the 20+ years Burnrate is casually observing it.

Just curious: is the question about the general set up or specifically about the value in the green circle? I interpreted it as the cold being pushed so far south into North America.
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Burnrate

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #10 on: December 25, 2022, 11:35:44 PM »
Here are a couple sites showing somewhat similar occurrences.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/why-polar-vortex-keeps-breaking-out-arctic

https://scijinks.gov/polar-vortex/

So interesting, so with the cold air pushed out like it this is looked at as an out of place polar vortex.  Even inside the jet stream?  I know it has been moving around a lot but it looks like it's literally inside the jet stream with that west to east moving air both north and south of it.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2022, 11:43:17 PM by Burnrate »

Burnrate

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2022, 11:42:16 PM »

Just curious: is the question about the general set up or specifically about the value in the green circle? I interpreted it as the cold being pushed so far south into North America.

My question was about the general setup.  Such a defined vortex inside the jet stream.  The winds north of the vortex made it so that it being a displaced polar vortex didn't even cross my mind.

Alexander555

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SteveMDFP

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2022, 07:22:30 PM »
Some info about what is going on, and is going to happen. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa

Thanks, Alexander.  This is a remarkably clear description of polar vortex dynamics.  Quite illuminating, for me, at least.

Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #14 on: December 26, 2022, 08:05:06 PM »
I hope we not get a total collaps like 2 winters ago. That was a long cold spring. And it killed many of my big fish in the pool. Half way march it was first very warm for the time of the year. Like 20 degree C for a couple days. And 2 days of 25 degree C. So most of the waterplants started to come up. Just like the big fish. And 2 days later it was freezing again. So the waterplants back down, but the big fish stayed above. Probably it has something to do with the mating instinct. And it stayed cold until half may. By the time it started to get warmer, many died. The toplayer was only like 1 or 2 degree C for 2 months. Normaly they would have stayed in the deeper water. If we get a total collaps, and the direction of the wind changes, we lose the advantage of the warmer atlantic winds.

Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2022, 08:20:46 PM »
That extreme heat dome in the west of the US and Canada. Was that this summer, or the summer before ?

Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2022, 08:39:54 PM »
I just checked it, it was 2 summers ago. That's the summer after the total collaps of the vortex during the winter.  Both are remarkable events. I wonder if something could be related. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_heat_wave

Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2022, 06:28:44 AM »
I'm not sure how much the difference is in degree C , between the red and the green line. Probably several degree C.  And it has been "hot" since summer. That's probably plenty fuel less for the vortex.

Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2023, 04:29:58 PM »
the loop in the Arctic in a few days is more abnormal , the strongest jet stream in the hemisphere blows south from the CAB over the CAA .. ( gfs ) .
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Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2023, 05:34:16 PM »
So the jetstream is weaker as normal ? Some say there is no jet stream left. Just lose pieces of  chaotic "wind". You should be able to see that on nullschool. That can explain some of these weird situations. And probably it will get more weird. The jet stream runs on the difference of temperature between the equator and the pole. And now you have these high SST anomalies in the middle between the equator and the pole. So we are probably going to see some surprises.

gerontocrat

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2023, 08:11:01 PM »
While the jetstream is in bits in the North it is looking strong in the South
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Alexander555

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2023, 09:11:52 PM »
It's hard to call that a jet stream, in the north. I have no history of  following that jet stream. So i can not compare it .But the lower part of it, from 0 to 15 km altitude normaly stays intact in summer. Much weaker but still intact. And that don't seems to be the case.

vox_mundi

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Re: Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?
« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2023, 04:56:08 PM »
Study Identifies Jet-Stream Pattern That Locks In Extreme Winter Cold, Wet Spells
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-jet-stream-pattern-extreme-winter-cold.html



Researchers say they have identified giant meanders in the global jet stream that bring polar air southward, locking in frigid or wet conditions concurrently over much of North America and Europe, often for weeks at a time. Such weather waves, they say, have doubled in frequency since the 1960s. In just the last few years, they have killed hundreds of people and paralyzed energy and transport systems.

The new paper, titled "Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes," appears this week in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

In a 2019 study, Kornhuber and colleagues showed that a repeating Rossby wave pattern known as a wave-7—that is, seven giant peaks and seven matching troughs spanning the globe—draws warm, dry air from the subtropics up to the midlatitudes, causing concurrent summer heat waves and droughts in predictable parts of North America, Europe and Asia. These can cause widespread, simultaneous crop losses in important breadbasket regions, the study said.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab13bf

The newer paper shows more or less the other side of the coin. A winter pattern known as a wave-4—globally, four peaks and four matching troughs—tends to lock in place. The authors say that when this happens, the chances of extreme cold or wet in the trough triples. At the same time, abnormally warm or dry conditions may develop in the peaks.

The most recent major wave-4 iteration brought a February 2021 cold wave to much of Canada, the United States and even northern Mexico. Temperatures fell as much as 50 degrees F below average as far south as the U.S. Gulf Coast. Parts of the Deep South saw rare snowfall. Hardest hit was Texas, where record cold paralyzed natural gas pipelines and other energy infrastructure, knocking out much of the electricity grid and causing homes and businesses to go dark and freeze.

All told, at least 278 people were killed directly or indirectly by the cold wave, and there was nearly $200 billion in damage. A similar though less destructive event caused a January-February 2019 cold snap in the eastern United States, killing more than 20 people.

The same pattern often hits on the other side of the Atlantic at the same time, usually most most extreme in southwestern Europe and Scandinavia. The January-February 2019 event brought extreme low temperatures to both southern France and Sweden. At the same time, by sweeping in moist air from the Atlantic, it caused extreme precipitation and flooding across many areas in central and eastern Europe. Similar events took place in Europe in 2013 and 2018.

The researchers say that 50 years ago, such concurrent waves took hold on average only once each winter. The numbers vary year to year, but now the average has risen to twice a year.

Kai Kornhuber et al, Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2023).
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/104/9/BAMS-D-21-0295.1.xml
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