Is the current loop in the jet stream abnormal?

[Burnrate]

I was looking at the jet stream and in my 20+ years of casually observing it I don't think I've seen this before.  I don't track it on a professional level by any means so maybe this isn't unusual or happens every time a pressure system pushes the cold air of Siberia.  Any thoughts on it would be much appreciated.

[longwalks1]

Please lock or delete this thread.   Just search for things on Yale Climate connection or things from Jennifer Francis.    There are several general questions threads.

[Burnrate]

Please lock or delete this thread.   Just search for things on Yale Climate connection or things from Jennifer Francis.    There are several general questions threads.

Sorry if this was the wrong place to post this.  Please let me know if it is and I will happily delete it.  You imply you know the answer to my question so could you answer or point me to something more specific than a news site or a researchers name.  Being intentionally ambiguous harms others with no benefit to yourself.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

I agree, Burnrate. Almost any question could theoretically be answered through enough effort and searching, but this original post about the jet stream does not seem to be a low effort or extremely commonly discussed one, and I don’t think it deserved that degree of hostility right off the bat. The jet stream has indeed been odd lately, and imo it would benefit from additional in depth discussion if anyone had knowledge or insight to share. This forum gets enough distractions via bickering about political wedge issues these days, I would hate to see real ASI/climate topics getting culled, even if niche in scope, while 5 different war and pandemic threads stay active.

Sadly I don’t have any valuable science to provide, but as another curious bystander I wanted to throw my hat in the ring in favor of letting these sort of threads survive or be migrated into another larger topic thread, rather than being locked and pruned outright.

[Alexander555]

And not that long ago i was reading somewhere the jet stream was looking normal. That we would get a normal winter. That changed fast.

[kassy]

I think it is a good question. Last summer also had an interesting cut off low. How common are they?

I think there might be an article discussing the original question soon but after the event ends.

We shall see.

[The Walrus]

Here are a couple sites showing somewhat similar occurrences.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/why-polar-vortex-keeps-breaking-out-arctic

https://scijinks.gov/polar-vortex/

[HapHazard]

Not an answer here but a metaphor which I've heard around these parts before that the changes our climate is going through due to AGW is akin to a spinning top, in that it wobbles & becomes more erratic as it slows down.

I like these little sub-topics. At the worst they can be moved to more fitting threads, but questions & discourse such as this should be encouraged here.

[SteveMDFP]

Not an answer here but a metaphor which I've heard around these parts before that the changes our climate is going through due to AGW is akin to a spinning top, in that it wobbles & becomes more erratic as it slows down.

I like these little sub-topics. At the worst they can be moved to more fitting threads, but questions & discourse such as this should be encouraged here.

Nice metaphor.  But I think starting a new thread for a transient event is a prescription for a fairly chaotic archive.  I'm quite certain that the polar vortex and/or jet stream is within the topic range of existing threads.  E.g.:

polar vortex - where?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,704.msg18206.html#msg18206

[kassy]

But that one is about a transient event in 2013/14.

When the volcano blew there were question about the consequences of that.

It is a simple question so the discussion will be short and after that it will slowly drift down the page.

Anyway in the media it was described as a once per generation event. So it probably is not abnormal. Here we do have to keep in mind that there is a lot of variety in the climate system over a long time or simply put if the generation is longer then the 20+ years Burnrate is casually observing it.

Just curious: is the question about the general set up or specifically about the value in the green circle? I interpreted it as the cold being pushed so far south into North America.

[Burnrate]

Here are a couple sites showing somewhat similar occurrences.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/why-polar-vortex-keeps-breaking-out-arctic

https://scijinks.gov/polar-vortex/

So interesting, so with the cold air pushed out like it this is looked at as an out of place polar vortex.  Even inside the jet stream?  I know it has been moving around a lot but it looks like it's literally inside the jet stream with that west to east moving air both north and south of it.

[Burnrate]

Just curious: is the question about the general set up or specifically about the value in the green circle? I interpreted it as the cold being pushed so far south into North America.

My question was about the general setup.  Such a defined vortex inside the jet stream.  The winds north of the vortex made it so that it being a displaced polar vortex didn't even cross my mind.

[Alexander555]

Some info about what is going on, and is going to happen. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa

[SteveMDFP]

Some info about what is going on, and is going to happen. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa

Thanks, Alexander.  This is a remarkably clear description of polar vortex dynamics.  Quite illuminating, for me, at least.

[Alexander555]

I hope we not get a total collaps like 2 winters ago. That was a long cold spring. And it killed many of my big fish in the pool. Half way march it was first very warm for the time of the year. Like 20 degree C for a couple days. And 2 days of 25 degree C. So most of the waterplants started to come up. Just like the big fish. And 2 days later it was freezing again. So the waterplants back down, but the big fish stayed above. Probably it has something to do with the mating instinct. And it stayed cold until half may. By the time it started to get warmer, many died. The toplayer was only like 1 or 2 degree C for 2 months. Normaly they would have stayed in the deeper water. If we get a total collaps, and the direction of the wind changes, we lose the advantage of the warmer atlantic winds.

[Alexander555]

That extreme heat dome in the west of the US and Canada. Was that this summer, or the summer before ?

[Alexander555]

I just checked it, it was 2 summers ago. That's the summer after the total collaps of the vortex during the winter.  Both are remarkable events. I wonder if something could be related. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_heat_wave

[Alexander555]

I'm not sure how much the difference is in degree C , between the red and the green line. Probably several degree C.  And it has been "hot" since summer. That's probably plenty fuel less for the vortex.