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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: July 01, 2023, 05:44:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 30th, 2023:
       9,239,003 km2, a century break drop of -102,317 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: July 01, 2023, 08:24:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,239,003 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2023

- Extent loss on this day 102k, 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,885 k, which is 144 k, 2.9% less than the 10 year average of 5,029 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  46 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  202 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  320 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  203 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  265 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  199 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  82 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 51.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 76 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.42 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: July 01, 2023, 09:59:14 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: Another month gone so here is a look at June data.

The June 2023 monthly average sea ice extent was 10.41 million km2, 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.46 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.14 million km2 below the June 2022 average.

If daily sea ice extemt gains and losses are at the average of the last 10 years for the remaining 6 months of the year, 2023 daily average extent for the year will be 10.08 million km2, 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.34 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.11 million km2 below the 2022 average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: July 01, 2023, 10:45:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:

The 365 day trailing average in June rose by the small amount of 12k km2 to 10.121 million km2, 0.447 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.487 million km2 above the record low in March 2021.

Average sea ice extent loses and gains from now would see a small reduction by the end of the year but then followed by increases in 2024.

June 2023 was yet another month of below average sea ice loss
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: July 01, 2023, 06:04:13 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  7,582,018 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2023

- Area loss on this day 108k, 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 96k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,351 k, which is 320 k, 5.6% less than the 10 year average of 5,672 k.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  378 k MORE than 2022,
- Area is  447 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  460 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  752 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  263 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 57.1% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 72 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.32 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 14th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: July 01, 2023, 06:29:24 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): some more

The contrast continues between
- slow sea ice area losses in the High Arctic with high sea ice concentration, and
- reasonably fast sea ice area losses in the Peripheral Seas with low sea ice concentration.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: July 01, 2023, 06:38:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day): some more

Graphs to show state of play in the peripheral regions attached. (1 of 2 posts).

Okhotsk and Bering - melt basically finished.
Hudson Bay - still on track for an early finish.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2023, 09:25:30 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: July 01, 2023, 06:52:42 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA: some more

Graphs to show state of play in the peripheral regions attached. (2nd of 2 posts).

St. Lawrence - July mask change will end it.
Baffin Bay - melt on track at a bit above the 2010's average. No reason not to expect almost total meltout.
Greenland Sea - Warmth (ocean and air) triumphs over Fram ice export in the end. Daily sea ice area losses currently well above average, with sea ice area now close to the 2010's average. The Greenland sea ice area at minimum is usually the main determinant of the peripheral seas minimum.
Barents - almost done with a late melt flourish. July change should see sea ice area at almost zero.






« Last Edit: July 01, 2023, 09:24:54 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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binntho

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: July 02, 2023, 06:46:12 AM »
Another century drop today. JAXA has lost almost 800,000 km2 in the last 7 days, and 1,070,000 km2 in the last 11 days.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2023, 07:06:28 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: July 02, 2023, 08:11:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,139,956 KM2 as at 01-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 99k, 2 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 97k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,984 k, which is 143 k, 2.8% less than the 10 year average of 5,126 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  2 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  190 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  323 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  226 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  250 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  199 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  81 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 52.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 75 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.42 million km2, 1.24 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: July 02, 2023, 08:15:53 AM »
Another century drop today. JAXA has lost almost 800,000 km2 in the last 7 days, and 1,070,000 km2 in the last 11 days.
For the first time since late May the 7 day average of sea ice extent daily change has dropped well below the 10 year average.

Interestingly, we are entering the 3 week period when it looked like 2020 sea ice extent was going to make a serious challenge to the 2012 record low minimum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: July 02, 2023, 12:46:28 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average data): Another month gone so here is a look at June data.

The June 2023 monthly average sea ice area was 8.90 million km2, 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.45 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.05 million km2 above the June 2022 average.

If daily sea ice area gains and losses are at the average of the last 10 years for the remaining 6 months of the year, 2023 daily average area for the year will be 8.92 million km2, 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.40 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.00 million km2 below (i.e. equal to) the 2022 average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: July 02, 2023, 12:52:02 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average data):

The 365 day trailing average in June rose by a marginal amount of 5k km2 to 8.891 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.69 million km2 above the record low in February 2021.

Average sea ice area losses and gains from now would see no reduction the average by the end of the year then followed by small increases in the first half of 2024.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2023, 03:51:29 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: July 02, 2023, 03:52:27 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  7,469,920 KM2 as at 01-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 112k, 3 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 109k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,463 k, which is 318 k, 5.5% less than the 10 year average of 5,781 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  350 k MORE than 2022,
- Area is  464 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  447 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  753 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  260 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 58.2% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 71 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.32 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 14th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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binntho

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: July 03, 2023, 06:43:56 AM »
I hope Juan is ok - he didn't post yesterday and he is already late today.

Anyway, the figures for 2nd June are 9,045,817 km2, a drop of 94,139 km2

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

The weather situation is mostly unchanged from Saturday to Saturday, except for a very interesting hot air intrusion from Canada reaching the Pole in a few days (of forecasts hold). So expect similar drops in extent the next few days ...
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #665 on: July 03, 2023, 06:55:09 AM »
I hope Juan is ok - he didn't post yesterday and he is already late today.

Anyway, the figures for 2nd June are 9,045,817 km2, a drop of 94,139 km2

Thank you for your posts, binntho. I am traveling with my family. We haven't been all together since 2019, so I am great  ;). Sometimes is difficult to make the post day after day. Anyway, I will be with them all this week (in case I miss another post).
Have a great day all of you!!!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 2nd, 2023:
       9,045,817 km2, a drop of -94,139 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 03, 2023, 07:02:27 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #666 on: July 03, 2023, 07:28:51 AM »
Many thanks, Juan, for your ongoing effort - it is certainly appreciated. And enjoy travelling with your family!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #667 on: July 03, 2023, 11:05:04 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,045,817 KM2 as at 02-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 94k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 95k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,078 k, which is 144 k, 2.7% less than the 10 year average of 5,221 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  55 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  262 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  293 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  263 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  247 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  211 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  85 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 53.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 74 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.42 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #668 on: July 03, 2023, 09:01:01 PM »
No NSIDC data update so far today - if it does arrive too late for me anyway.
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binntho

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #669 on: July 04, 2023, 06:45:15 AM »
Hope you have a good time Juan with your family!

Today's numbers are: extent June 3rd is 8,981,266 km2 a drop of 64,551 km2
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #670 on: July 04, 2023, 06:58:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 3rd, 2023:
       8,981,266 km2, a drop of -64,551 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #671 on: July 04, 2023, 07:15:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,981,266 KM2 as at 03-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 65k, 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,142 k, which is 172 k, 3.2% less than the 10 year average of 5,314 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  59 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  363 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  348 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  304 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  275 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  235 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  102 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 54.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 73 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.45 million km2, 1.27 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #672 on: July 04, 2023, 11:37:09 PM »
No NSIDC data for 3rd July.

If NSIDC keeps on updating so late I guess I will have to start posting data from 2 days ago instead of one day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #673 on: July 05, 2023, 06:01:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 4th, 2023:
       8,887,410 km2, a drop of -93,856 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #674 on: July 05, 2023, 10:08:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,887,410 KM2 as at 04-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 94k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 96k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,236 k, which is 174 k, 3.2% less than the 10 year average of 5,410 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  52 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  421 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  380 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  286 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  289 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  213 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  89 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 55.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 72 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.45 million km2, 1.28 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #675 on: July 05, 2023, 12:44:55 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  7,098,887 KM2 as at 04-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 140k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 126k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,834 k, which is 294 k, 4.8% less than the 10 year average of 6,128 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  90 k MORE than 2022,
- Area is  650 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  399 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  704 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  216 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 61.7% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 68 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.29 million km2, 1.05 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 14th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #676 on: July 06, 2023, 06:20:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 5th, 2023:
       8,793,390 km2, a drop of -94,020 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #677 on: July 06, 2023, 08:28:30 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,793,390 KM2 as at 05-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 94k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,330 k, which is 179 k, 3.3% less than the 10 year average of 5,509 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  42 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  460 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  418 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  268 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  306 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  230 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  84 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 56.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 71 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.46 million km2, 1.28 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #678 on: July 06, 2023, 08:16:02 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  6,954,436 KM2 as at 05-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 144k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 126k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,979 k, which is 275 k, 4.4% less than the 10 year average of 6,254 k.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  19 k MORE than 2022,
- Area is  679 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  377 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  654 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  185 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 63.0% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 67 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.28 million km2, 1.03 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 14th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #679 on: July 06, 2023, 08:21:04 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

Sea ice melt in the High Arctic has picked up, mostly due to strong sea ice area losses in NSIDC's Central Arctic region. (see graph and table attached).

Sea ice area loss in the Peripheral Seas has slowed down a little bit.
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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #680 on: July 07, 2023, 05:45:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2023:
       8,704,914 km2, a drop of -88,476 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #681 on: July 07, 2023, 06:19:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,704,914 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 88k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 95k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,419 k, which is 186 k, 3.3% less than the 10 year average of 5,604 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  71 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  425 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  525 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  294 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  304 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  282 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  89 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 56.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 70 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.47 million km2, 1.29 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #682 on: July 07, 2023, 11:17:55 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  6,829,756 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 125k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 116k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 6,104 k, which is 267 k, 4.2% less than the 10 year average of 6,370 k.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  0 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  671 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  363 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  586 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  165 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 64.1% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 66 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.27 million km2, 1.02 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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etienne

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #683 on: July 08, 2023, 06:18:55 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 7th, 2023:
       8,651,231 km2, a drop of -53,683 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #684 on: July 08, 2023, 06:43:02 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,651,231 KM2 as at 07-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 54k, 45 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,472 k, which is 231 k, 4.0% less than the 10 year average of 5,703 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  81 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  455 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  650 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  366 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  304 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  280 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  126 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 57.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 69 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.51 million km2, 1.33 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #685 on: July 08, 2023, 06:02:14 PM »
Evaluation of sea ice area - relative area wise - from June 22 - July 05 (High Arctic Seas only) in the order of loss
almost no melting in
Laptev     - 1%
slow melting in
CAA         - 7%
medium melting in
CAB        -10%
Chukchi  -15%
ESS        -17%
Beaufort  -18%
fast melting in
Kara       -25%
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #686 on: July 08, 2023, 08:07:44 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  6,701,128 KM2 as at 07-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 129k, 8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 121k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 6,232 k, which is 259 k, 4.0% less than the 10 year average of 6,492 k.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  11 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  631 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  343 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  505 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  145 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 65.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 65 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.26 million km2, 1.01 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #687 on: July 09, 2023, 05:59:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 7th, 2023:
       8,651,231 km2, a drop of -53,683 km2.
Thank you for your post, etienne. And of course, thanks to Gero and to everybody that contributes in the ASIF.  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8th, 2023:
       8,608,007 km2, a drop of -43,224 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #688 on: July 09, 2023, 07:47:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,608,007 KM2 as at 08-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 43k, 63 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 106k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,516 k, which is 294 k, 5.1% less than the 10 year average of 5,809 k.

- Extent is 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  39 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  514 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  746 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  473 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  336 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  348 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  186 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 59.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 68 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.57 million km2, 1.40 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #689 on: July 09, 2023, 12:56:26 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  6,570,503 KM2 as at 08-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 131k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 108k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 6,363 k, which is 236 k, 3.6% less than the 10 year average of 6,599 k.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  20 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  556 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  312 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  441 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  116 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 66.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 64 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.24 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #690 on: July 09, 2023, 02:35:08 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): A bit more

High Arctic sea ice area continues to fall a bit above average though still a above 2022 and the 2010's average.

Losses are more generally dispersed among the various regions ( see table) and Central Arctic sea ice area losses have moderated.

Peripheral Seas sea ice area losses continue on their way to perhaps a low but not extremely low minimum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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be cause

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #691 on: July 09, 2023, 07:30:23 PM »
I don't recall 5 days in a row  over 100k last year in the High Arctic , but this is likely in part meltponds . But those that fool sensors are v. likely to melt out anyway . It looks very like 2023 will take the lead over 2016 on your graph in the next few days . Dull this season is not ! But where will this collapse in area end ?

 p.s looking at the graph again I see that the high melt in the CAB was when the dark melt ponds appeared . The same is true for the East Siberian Sea .
 
« Last Edit: July 09, 2023, 07:53:54 PM by be cause »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #692 on: July 10, 2023, 06:27:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 9th, 2023:
       8,546,406 km2, a drop of -61,601 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 10, 2023, 06:59:48 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #693 on: July 10, 2023, 06:44:24 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,546,406 KM2 as at 09-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 62k, 37 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,577 k, which is 331 k, 5.6% less than the 10 year average of 5,908 k.

- Extent is 13th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  13 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  609 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  788 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  593 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  358 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  436 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  225 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 60.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 67 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.61 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #694 on: July 10, 2023, 07:16:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  6,430,010 KM2 as at 09-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 140k, 40 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 100k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 6,503 k, which is 196 k, 2.9% less than the 10 year average of 6,699 k.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  63 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  450 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  316 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  387 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  74 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 67.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 63 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.20 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #695 on: July 11, 2023, 06:01:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 10th, 2023:
       8,483,345 km2, a drop of -63,061 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #696 on: July 11, 2023, 01:26:56 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,483,345 KM2 as at 10-Jul-2023

JAXA sea ice extent busy going nowhere.....

- Extent loss on this day 63k, 30 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,640 k, which is 361 k, 6.0% less than the 10 year average of 6,001 k.

- Extent is 14th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  27 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  637 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  822 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  644 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  359 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  507 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  255 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 61.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 66 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.64 million km2, 1.46 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #697 on: July 11, 2023, 06:57:04 PM »
In contrast to JAXA extent data, daily sea ice area loss continues to be a bit above average...

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  6,323,391 KM2 as at 10-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 107k, 8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 6,610 k, which is 188 k, 2.8% less than the 10 year average of 6,798 k.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  102 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  406 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  334 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  378 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  68 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 68.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 62 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.19 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 11th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #698 on: July 12, 2023, 05:50:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 11th, 2023:
       8,414,388 km2, a drop of -68,957 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #699 on: July 12, 2023, 01:35:26 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,414,388 KM2 as at 11-Jul-2023

Yet another below average sea ice extent loss on this day
- Extent loss on this day 69k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,709 k, which is 386 k, 6.3% less than the 10 year average of 6,095 k.

- Extent is 14th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  4 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  666 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  887 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  641 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  367 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  548 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  281 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 61.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 65 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.67 million km2, 1.49 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
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N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)