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gerontocrat

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ENSO 2023
« on: January 04, 2023, 07:02:48 AM »
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says an El Nino could arrive by mid-2023- but predictability is low at this time of year.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/04/australia-could-swing-from-three-years-of-la-nina-to-hot-and-dry-el-nino-in-2023
Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023

Bureau of Meteorology climate models indicate sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific may exceed El Niño thresholds by June
Quote
Australia could swing from three years of above-average rainfall to one of the hottest, driest El Niño periods on record, as models show an increasing likelihood the climate driver may form in the Pacific in 2023.

The latest climate models used by the Bureau of Meteorology – which will update its forecasts on Wednesday – indicate sea-surface temperatures may exceed El Niño thresholds in the key region of the equatorial Pacific by June.

Scientists caution that models may be less accurate ahead of the “autumn predictability gap” in April – the time of year when the Pacific enters a reset mode, allowing small influences to have big effects. But they suggest that after three consecutive La Niña years, the ocean is primed for a switch.

“The Pacific must be quite charged with heat ready to have an El Niño,” Cai Wenju, a senior CSIRO climate scientist, told Guardian Australia. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we had an El Niño by the end of the year.”

Agus Santoso, a senior researcher at the University of New South Wales’s Climate Change Research Centre, agreed. “Definitely an El Niño is a prospect [for 2023]”, he said. “You could have a weak El Niño. A strong El Niño is a possibility but neutral conditions are also a possibility.”
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2023, 03:41:07 AM »
My understanding is that, in a warming climate, a La Nina buries heat in the Pacific, and an El Nino releases it.
Therefore, after a three year La Nina, there should be a tremendous amount of heat lurking below the surface of the Pacific, ready to burst to the surface as soon as the winds permit, meaning that the next El Nino should be a doozy and global temperatures should jump to a new benchmark.
OK, I'm not an expert, and I tend to oversimplify, but I don't think I'm wrong here.
So, I don't really understand why the ABM is so equivocal about the force of the next El Nino.
Like, it's coming guys, and the longer it's delayed, the stronger it will be.

trm1958

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2023, 02:32:49 PM »
Maybe they are just covering their glutei maximi in case the chaotic whimsies of weather make it a tiny one (although your argument is persuasive to me, SB).

J Cartmill

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2023, 03:10:47 PM »
Short article showing the mechanism of the eastward migration of warm subsurface water prior to the last (2016) El nino.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/slow-slosh-warm-water-across-pacific-hints-el-ni%C3%B1o-brewing

Here is a link for the current subsurface temperature anomalies.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

trm1958

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2023, 10:47:04 PM »
My understanding is that, in a warming climate, a La Nina buries heat in the Pacific, and an El Nino releases it.
Therefore, after a three year La Nina, there should be a tremendous amount of heat lurking below the surface of the Pacific, ready to burst to the surface as soon as the winds permit, meaning that the next El Nino should be a doozy and global temperatures should jump to a new benchmark.
OK, I'm not an expert, and I tend to oversimplify, but I don't think I'm wrong here.
So, I don't really understand why the ABM is so equivocal about the force of the next El Nino.
Like, it's coming guys, and the longer it's delayed, the stronger it will be.
Any experts here to tell me if this is really how it works?

John Batteen

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2023, 12:51:10 AM »
I'm far from an expert but yes, that is generally the gist of it, that La Nina buries heat in the deep ocean and El Nino releases it.  Now, whether 3 years of burying heat in the deep ocean is really going to make the coming El Nino any worse than it might have been after 1 year is an open question.  I'm not sure we know how fast that heat is mixing out once it gets down there, but if it mixes out reasonably quickly, the duration of the preceding La Nina may or may not have a huge effect on the magnitude of the coming El Nino.  A lot depends on other factors as well.  ENSO is a complicated system and depends on more than just deep ocean heat transfer.  There are a lot of additional oceanic and atmospheric dynamics at work.

BeeKnees

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2023, 02:00:28 AM »
I'm going to stick my neck out a bit. Not an expert, just my understanding

My understanding is that during la Niña the trade winds are strong and push surface water towards Australia. This exposes cooler subsurface water off the coast of South America, so you get a constant upwelling of cool water from deeper in the ocean which requires more heat to evaporate into the atmosphere.
When the trade winds weaken and El Niño dominates the cool upwelling is reduced and the surface across the central Pacific gets warmer, releasing more heat into the atmosphere.

So it's not a store of heat released that makes el Niño warmer but rather the reduction of cooler water rising from depth. The warmed water is less dense so does not sink but rather forms a current that heads into the Indian Ocean, round the cape of Africa and all the way to the Arctic where it sinks below the fresher cold water.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walker_circulation


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kassy

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2023, 02:45:37 PM »
A bit more detail from a paper Vox posted on the 2022 thread:

Quote
Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates.

Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes. The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results from a stronger increase in EP-ENSO rainfall response, which boosts the signal of increased SST variability, and is enhanced by ENSO non-linear atmospheric feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST variability under greenhouse warming is likely to emerge first in the eastern than central Pacific, and decades earlier than previously anticipated.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest and most consequential year-to-year climate fluctuation on the planet, with significant societal and environmental impacts that are felt worldwide1,2,3,4,5. Alternating between a warm El Niño phase and a cold La Niña phase, ENSO sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit diverse anomaly centres6,7,8,9, ranging from the equatorial eastern-Pacific (EP) to the equatorial central-Pacific (CP), referred to as EP-ENSO and CP-ENSO regimes, respectively10,11. The EP-ENSO regime is characterised by stronger warm-than-cold SST anomalies, whereas the CP-ENSO regime features larger cold-than-warm SST anomalies.

Strong EP-ENSO events, as seen in extreme El Niño in 1982 and 1997, caused a substantial disruption of marine ecosystems across the Pacific2,12. The large warm anomalies lead to a displacement of atmospheric deep convection towards the climatologically dry eastern equatorial Pacific, bringing floods to eastern-Pacific-rim countries but droughts in regions bordering the western Pacific1,3. CP-ENSO events, with its anomaly centre triggering an atmospheric response in the central-western equatorial Pacific, have different global impacts7,13,14. For example, catastrophic floods normally seen in parts of Ecuador and northern Peru during large EP El Niño are absent when CP El Niño occurs15. Different tropospheric and stratospheric responses are found in the middle to high latitudes with a strong interhemispheric difference and are projected to change in future climate


...

The presence of the two ENSO regimes is underpinned by a non-linear Bjerknes feedback; specifically, zonal winds respond non-linearly to warm SST anomalies after large warm anomalies establish atmospheric deep convection in the equatorial eastern-Pacific, in turn, conducive to further SST warming by promoting the oceanic zonal advection, Ekman pumping, and thermocline feedback, constituting a positive feedback loop35,39. Consequently, positive SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern-Pacific grow far greater than cold anomalies. A strong El Niño in the equatorial eastern-Pacific leads to a large discharge of heat and a shallowed thermocline, conducive to strong La Niña in the central-Pacific, where cold anomalies are greater than warm anomalies.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

So this is a bit more complex descriptions of the interaction of ENSO with the atmosphere.

And a little simpler:

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation occurs across the tropical Pacific, and involves complex interplays between the atmosphere and the ocean. It can be in one of three phases: El Niño, La Niña or neutral.

During an El Niño phase, the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms significantly. This causes a major shift in cloud formation and weather patterns across the Pacific, typically leading to dry conditions in eastern Australia.

During a La Niña phase, which is occurring now, waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than average. The associated changes in weather patterns include higher than average rainfall over much of Australia.

https://phys.org/news/2022-11-climate-eastern-pacific-weather-patterns.html
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trm1958

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2023, 03:47:52 PM »
I know his website is forbidden on this forum, but SC's post for Jan 3 has a couple charts of ENSO since 1950. The last big La Nina was c.2000 and the following El Nino was piddling. The c.2016 yuge El Nino followed a moderately large La Nina. The big El Nino c.1997 followed a tiny La Nina. The biggie before that, c.1983 was preceded by a basically neutral period. Before that was a large La Nina c.1975 that followed a large El Nino. There were a couple sizable La Ninas c.2010 that may have preceded the c.2016 El Nino biggie after a sizable delay?
Anyhoo, looking at the charts does not show a very clear pattern after all.

gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2023, 04:28:36 PM »
I like the the explanation from the Aussie BOM.
It shows that subsurface warm water is moved as well as surface water.

Perhaps during a 3 year La Nina, this pool of subsurface water located North of Australia could get deeper and with higher +ve temperature  anomalies. This would give any El Nino afterwards a much bigger reservoir of heat to release into the atmosphere as it moves to off the coast of South America.

Note : 3 graphs attached (image function failed so not placed in the text)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml
The three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The neutral phase
In the neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) trade winds blow east to west across the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, bringing warm moist air and warmer surface waters towards the western Pacific and keeping the central Pacific Ocean relatively cool. The thermocline is deeper in the west than the east.


El Niño
During an El Niño event, trade winds weaken or may even reverse, allowing the area of warmer than normal water to move into the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

These warmer than normal ocean temperatures are associated with a deepening of the thermocline in the central to eastern Pacific. A weaker upwelling of cooler ocean waters from below also contributes to warmer sea surface temperatures.


La Niña
During a La Niña event, the Walker Circulation intensifies with greater convection over the western Pacific and stronger trade winds.

As the trade winds strengthen, the pool of warmer water is confined to the far western tropical Pacific, resulting in warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the region north of Australia. Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual and the thermocline moves closer to the surface – cool waters from the deep ocean are drawn to the surface as upwelling strengthens.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2023, 09:56:18 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2023, 05:51:23 PM »
ENSO since 1950.

Anyhoo, looking at the charts does not show a very clear pattern after all.
It seems that looking for a simple correlation between the strength of La Nina and that of El Nino is just not possible.

The literature says that the strength and climatic effects of these events are influenced by the state of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which in turn is influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) which itself is described as " thought to be related to the North Atlantic branch of the deep thermohaline circulation".

Instead of being able to say "this WILL happen" we can only say "this is MORE LIKELY to happen".

We live in an interconnected world

Links if you feel like finding out more
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/pacific-decadal-oscillation
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_amo_index.php
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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BeeKnees

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2023, 06:14:53 PM »
It's a sobering thought to think that the upwelling water during La Nina has been flowing deep inthe ocean for hundreds of years and has an imprint of the climate at the time it sank to the depths. 

The water upwelling today maybe cooler due to the Little ice age in the north atlantic

https://phys.org/news/2019-01-bottom-pacific-colder-possibly-due.html
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Bruce Steele

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2023, 08:32:27 PM »
Calif. being Calif.
From drought to this series of storms and a very active Pineapple Express.  More to come, lots more !
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G17&sector=tpw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

The Walrus

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2023, 10:15:01 PM »
Typical california weather.  As the song goes, it never rains, it pours.

Bruce Steele

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2023, 02:30:00 AM »
OMG, The River started flooding and I had to move 25 cows, calves, sheep ,goats , and horses from their flooded paddocks.  When I started the water was knee deep and by the time I got to the last pony stallion I was up to my armpits in a running river. I cut some fences and moved the animals onto some pasture not yet under water .  8 inches of rain today in Montecito and more in the mountains that feed into the Santa Ynez river, we’re my farm is.  Horses were kinda panicked and I am lucky I didn’t get kicked. It is getting dark and they are on their own now. 
 Lost one baby goat and a bunch of chickens. Still pouring and another big storm headed this way after this one. I was alone but not sure the Mexican guys who own all the livestock could have managed the depth of the flowing water. Kinda helped being 6’1”.
 Feels very El Niño , warm heavy rain.
 

Rodius

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2023, 02:51:57 AM »
OMG, The River started flooding and I had to move 25 cows, calves, sheep ,goats , and horses from their flooded paddocks.  When I started the water was knee deep and by the time I got to the last pony stallion I was up to my armpits in a running river. I cut some fences and moved the animals onto some pasture not yet under water .  8 inches of rain today in Montecito and more in the mountains that feed into the Santa Ynez river, we’re my farm is.  Horses were kinda panicked and I am lucky I didn’t get kicked. It is getting dark and they are on their own now. 
 Lost one baby goat and a bunch of chickens. Still pouring and another big storm headed this way after this one. I was alone but not sure the Mexican guys who own all the livestock could have managed the depth of the flowing water. Kinda helped being 6’1”.
 Feels very El Niño , warm heavy rain.

Sorry to hear the struggle.
You are right, it is never boring in Cali in terms of weather.

We can compare notes if the El Nino turns up... you have the rain and floods (we just got out of that) and I have the heat and fires.

Bruce Steele

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2023, 03:23:56 AM »
Rodius, Still raging out there tonight. My house sits thirty feet above the hundred year floodplain but most everything else is floodplain although two or three feet of elevation makes a big difference when the river is flooding. Right now 2/3rds of my farm is a river, a vast majority of time it is bone dry.
 Yes Australia seems like like a mirror image of Southern Cal.but  with the El Niño La Niña climate response reversed.
 Am am wondering about how the Indian subcontinent will deal with a collapse of the Monsoon if this El Niño comes on strong this year ?
 My rain gauge says 5” ( 12.7 cm ) last 24 hours.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2023, 03:33:48 AM by Bruce Steele »

oren

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2023, 07:07:55 AM »
Wow. I hope your situation improves quickly Bruce, and that no further damage is sustained.

Laurent

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gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2023, 07:55:09 PM »
When Climate change hits someone you know like Bruce Steele it really brings home the existential crisis that it has become.

By late summer/fall consensus forecasts more chance of an El Nino than staying neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
12 January 2023
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.

During December, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened over the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño index values were between -0.7°C and -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The subsurface temperature anomalies also weakened substantially [Fig. 3], but below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface and at depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean did not notably weaken. Low-level easterly wind and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained across most of the equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection persisted over the western and central tropical Pacific, while enhanced convection was observed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume predicts that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. Interestingly, the dynamical models indicate a faster transition (January-March) than the statistical models (February-April). At this time, the forecaster consensus favors the statistical models, with a transition to ENSO-neutral in the February-April 2023 season. The sustained atmospheric circulation anomalies and the weakening downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave do not support an imminent transition. However, lower accuracy during times of transition, and when predictions go through the spring, means that uncertainty remains high. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82% [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 February 2023.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

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The Walrus

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2023, 08:51:55 PM »
When Climate change hits someone you know like Bruce Steele it really brings home the existential crisis that it has become.

I fail to see how climate change is affecting Bruce.  This is a normal, albeit uncommon, occurrence.

A-Team

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2023, 09:07:14 PM »
Quote
consensus more chance of an El Nino than staying neutral.
They can barely stay ahead of events. Of what use is this to farmers or municipal water planners?

Despite the current laying hen shortage, they've still managed to get egg on their face. For decades, one of the big takeaways was more precip in the Southwest (and Colorado River basin) during El Nino years.

In my view, this never made statistical sense being largely based on a couple of extreme outlier winters that happened to be ninos plus multi-decadal model assumptions that don't hold up during strong trends of climate change.

To my astonishment, they've found a workaround: if there's incredible record rain during a La Nina year, fine but we see an El Nino-like pattern out in the Pacific! So all just goes to prove how great our earlier conclusion was!!!

I'm seeing a veritable flood of articles floating this same convenient concept. The weird weather forum is discussing this as well:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg356251.html#msg356251

What is causing the parade of storms battering California?
By Paul Duginski 12 Jan 2023 LA Times

The short answer is the location of the jet stream or storm track — a belt of strong winds high in the troposphere where airliners fly. “It has been parked across the Pacific with multiple low-pressure systems rippling along over the last few weeks,” said Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

The jet stream pattern this winter is very unusual for current La Niña conditions, said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. It looks more like La Niñas unruly sibling, El Niño, as it barrels across the breadth of the ocean, from west to east, along about 35° north latitude, on average. Traditionally, La Niña’s are associated with dry winters in Southern California. The jet stream is elongated, stretching across the ocean from west to east.

It’s not unusual for storms to move along the jet stream. It’s the position of that moving belt that has been a key factor this winter. This jet stream is like a moving sidewalk at the airport, where storms can pick up baggage along the way. Moisture is plentiful in the western Pacific, where waters are warmer than usual because of La Niña, and storms can easily grab more as they pass by the tropics on their eastward track. They tap into moisture from areas around Hawaii, sweeping it along in atmospheric rivers as they head toward California.

Atmospheric rivers are concentrated streams of water vapor about 100 to 250 miles wide in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere. These “rivers in the sky” can transport enormous amounts of often-beneficial moisture. On average, about 30% to 50% of annual precipitation on the West Coast comes from a handful of atmospheric rivers. But potent ones can cause extreme rainfall with catastrophic flooding and mudslides. When they arrive in quick succession, as has been the case in recent weeks, it can be overwhelming: Too much of a good thing for a drought-stricken state. 

Weather patterns over the Pacific since Dec. 20 found in the jet stream to be in what meteorologists call a zonal pattern, flowing straight west to east, with a region of upper-level lower pressure to the north and an area of high pressure to the south, closer to Hawaii. Storms on this route tend to grab warmer moisture as they barrel across the ocean in expressway fashion, one after another. This is significantly different from the patterns that brought the Southland a wet December 2021, then a a record-dry January and February 2022.

In December 2021, the upper-level high situated in the North Pacific — one byproduct of a La Niña atmosphere — backed away to the west by just enough to allow storms from the Gulf of Alaska to plummet down the West Coast over water. This upper high-pressure system has been blamed for blocking storms from reaching a parched Golden State, leading to consecutive dry winters in California. Storms moving south over the ocean stock up on moisture, resulting in more rain.

Then, in January, the high shifted back to the east, slamming the storm door shut for Southern California, resulting in a record-dry January and February — months that are normally the state’s wettest.

The upper-level high pressure shifted back to the east, slamming shut the storm door in January and February 2022.(Paul Duginski / Los Angeles Times)
Storms riding along the storm track were shunted inland, moving over the Intermountain West or the Rockies. These are called “inside sliders.” This pattern is conducive to Santa Ana winds in Southern California, where winter wildfires broke out in February. The rain-starved state had to contend with dry conditions and above-average warmth, and a heat advisory was issued because of predicted highs of 85-90 degrees when Super Bowl LVI was played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Feb. 13.

Such conditions are more typical of La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (abbreviated as “ENSO”) climate pattern. This is the third consecutive winter that’s firmly in La Niña territory, based on conditions in the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is forecast to persist, with a 50-50 chance of conditions turning neutral in the January-to-March period.

Conditions in the state are nevertheless entirely different this year, compared with the previous two La Niña winters. As Tardy points out, snowpack is twice average right now, and about 310 inches has accumulated at Mammoth, which is more than any of the three prior seasons there.

So La Niña typically means warm, dry conditions in Southern California and the Southwest, but it’s not always the case.

Central California continues to be the primary focus of this El Niño-like jet stream position, and the part of the state that has received the most above-average precipitation. For reference, San Luis Obispo sits just north of 35° north latitude, the line that the persistent, elongated Pacific jet stream has followed across the ocean in recent weeks. The Santa Barbara area, a bit to the south, has received 12-15 inches of flooding rain.

Even though California has been deluged with rain in recent weeks, it doesn’t compensate for more than two decades of drought, which played a big part in record-shattering fire seasons.  Atmospheric river moisture plumes in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere, when they encounter mountains, are forced to rise quickly, enhancing the rainfall. This collision and lifting effect means that mountains wring the maximum moisture out of atmospheric rivers.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2023, 10:22:13 PM by A-Team »

Bruce Steele

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #22 on: January 13, 2023, 03:10:09 AM »
Walrus, OK not climate change. And not an El Niño either. But to me it feels like one. We here in Southern Calif. are dependent upon these atmospheric rivers that fill our reservoirs and just because  69’ , 82-83, and 97-98 were El Niño and super wet means nothing maybe but farmers and fishermen use their personal experience to predict what to plant or what to fish and asking a scientist for an opinion on such things is usually hedged to the point of uselessness. So fishermen who succeed are just damn good guessers and successful farmers are soothsayers of future market conditions and weather patterns both. But some people ARE successful year after year and even if they can’t really tell you how they make their decisions , ignoring their success is aloof at best IMO.
I don’t make any claim on success, but I am of the opinion a man faces tests in living life to the fullest.
I would rather have lived  and taken my chances than never to have lived at all.

gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #23 on: January 13, 2023, 06:22:06 AM »
Most climate scientists reckon that a consequence of climate change is more frequent extreme events. In my opinion that means events outside historical norms, and that includes the current events of California that are happening outside the historical norms of La Nina weather. A climate that is in permanent and increasingly violent transition makes it increasing difficult to predict the weather let alone the season.

When history can no longer give at least a probability of prospects for the farming year that means farmers such as Bruce really do have to plan on a wing and a prayer.

ps: And attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos who brought along their skiing outfits have to bear the disappointment of no snow. Such a shame.
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Human Habitat Index

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #24 on: January 13, 2023, 07:09:22 AM »
Can this extreme weather event trigger El Nino eg affecting equatorial sea temps or mixing ?

Or a sign that El Nino is on the way ?
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anthropocene

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #25 on: January 13, 2023, 08:27:58 AM »
When discussing this please bear one point in mind. I count weather forecasts as a statement of what the weather will be (temp, wind, rain etc ) at a time x in the future. Currently (depending on conditions) the forecast can be given with high probability up to 10 days in advance. There are some predictions published for what seasons will be like. Usually they come with probabilities which make them of little use for decision making. I'm not sure what to call these forecasts: somewhere between weather forecasts & climatology. Stating they are weather forecasts unfairly denigrates the up to 10 days ahead weather forecasts which have gradually & consistently increased in accuracy in recent years.

Niall Dollard

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #26 on: January 13, 2023, 12:38:10 PM »
The ENSO forecast is a sort of specialist long range forecast.

In general forecasts are defined by the length of time ahead of the date issued. Some met orgs may vary but it is something along the lines of this :

Darvince

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #27 on: January 13, 2023, 03:01:16 PM »
Can this extreme weather event trigger El Nino eg affecting equatorial sea temps or mixing ?

Or a sign that El Nino is on the way ?
ENSO is mainly influenced by weather in the tropics, including the Madden-Julian oscillation, and Kelvin waves. To get an El Niño going, you need at least one westerly wind burst, which can be caused by the active part of the MJO passing by.

We are better at forecasting ENSO than most other climate oscillations, but only mainly during the summer and fall, at other times the spring predictability barrier makes long-term forecasts for ENSO much worse. At this time of year, whatever ENSO event is present is usually weakening as we head towards the spring predictability barrier.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2023, 10:15:33 PM »
Can this extreme weather event trigger El Nino eg affecting equatorial sea temps or mixing ?

Or a sign that El Nino is on the way ?
ENSO is mainly influenced by weather in the tropics, including the Madden-Julian oscillation, and Kelvin waves. To get an El Niño going, you need at least one westerly wind burst, which can be caused by the active part of the MJO passing by.

We are better at forecasting ENSO than most other climate oscillations, but only mainly during the summer and fall, at other times the spring predictability barrier makes long-term forecasts for ENSO much worse. At this time of year, whatever ENSO event is present is usually weakening as we head toward the spring predictability barrier.

I worry that we are seeing "The Tail Wagging the Dog"?

I worry that the 2014 'flip' of the 'Multidecadal Pacific Oscillation', back in 2014, is placing forcings on the climate system that have 'mimicked' El Nino patterns across the globe?

Come the predicted Nino?

98' saw it punch 1C above the background....

If 2023 pushed 1C above current averages?
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Rodius

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2023, 03:01:32 AM »
This year looks to be neutral and heading to ward El Nino.

Given the last few years have been La Nina, which drops global temps by about 0.2C to 0.3C, and that we are at about +1.2C now... it is likely we will reach +1.5C this year and should the El Nino hit (when it hits), it will increase that even more over current levels.

To me, I would give it a 50% chance of +1.5C this year and in 2024 it might even reach +2C.

I hope my memory for this is wrong, but I am fairly sure I am relatively close.


oren

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2023, 07:51:07 AM »
I think these numbers are too high, but the best indicator is a long-term chart I saw somewhere that shows temps for normal years, El Nino years and La Nina years, I am sure someone here can recall and find this chart.

Alexander555

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2023, 09:22:13 AM »
From the BBC, it tells in a la niña year the temperature falls on average by 0,2 degree C . And a El Niño gives you 0,2 degree C extra. I think it would be faire to make the same calculation as with the sunspots. They add 0,2 degree from peak to the lowest point. So half of it you can count extra on the way to the top. Like the differnce from la niña to el niño is 0,4 degree C. And half  of that on the way up. That half you will get extra from the next el nino. Maybe a litlle bit more, probably they will become more intense with a warmer ocean. So that's 0,3 degree C you will get in the next month's/ years from warming that's not permanent. We will move back to a la niña, and the solar cycle will come to an end. But still it will be plenty compared to a globel warming of 0,13 degree C per decade for the last 50 years. The long term trend line will maybe not move to 1,5 degree C in the next years. But the temperature probably will. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508

oren

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2023, 09:29:01 AM »
I mean something like this chart, but I cannot find an updated version to 2022.



Edit: Here's a similar one to 2021



It appears the GSMT differences between ENSO peaks and troughs is about 0.3C. I can easily see a spike of 1.5C within the next couple of years, but cannot see 2.0C this decade.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2023, 09:34:08 AM by oren »

kassy

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2023, 05:31:59 PM »
The onset is also not in sync with the year. If we get one this year it will be the last few months so the bigger contribution is only counted for 3 months of global temps if it then carries over and it is strong and has staying power it can really push up next years temperature but 1,5C is not likely for this year and probably an outlier for next year too.

 
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crandles

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2023, 09:11:36 PM »
From Rodius  . This year looks to be neutral and heading to ward El Nino.

Given the last few years have been La Nina, which drops global temps by about 0.2C to 0.3C, and that we are at about +1.2C now... it is likely we will reach +1.5C this year and should the El Nino hit (when it hits), it will increase that even more over current levels.

To me, I would give it a 50% chance of +1.5C this year and in 2024 it might even reach +2C.

I hope my memory for this is wrong, but I am fairly sure I am relatively close.

And sunspot numbers rising faster as predicted. The last few days near 180. This should add also a little. And we did not burn less fossil fuels,so that should add a little. Oceans accumulating more heat in general, so that should add a little.

Hard to find a good relationship with sunspots or other solar measures. May well be something but it is pretty small.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Most rapid rise largely ENSO driven with a super El Nino is 2013 to 2016 from .67 to 1.01 above 1951 to 1980 base period.

Can add about 0.3? to get to above preindustrial.

So only need another 0.2C above 2016 to get to 1.5C above preindustrial.

Compared to that 0.3C in 3 years that 0.2 does not sound a lot.

However that is a very fast rate of change driven by ENSO. Instead we should look at something like average of last 7 years, 0.93C, compared to the 7 years 30 years earlier which have an average of 0.32 which gives a rate of increase of 0.2C per decade.

So if we got a similar or more intense super El Nino as 2016 about a decade later then yes we might get to 1.5C above preindustrial.

+1.5C above preindustrial may be just about in range in the next couple of years but only with a super El Nino.

However your +2C looks to be rather badly out around 25-35 years away not 2.

A-Team

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #35 on: January 17, 2023, 04:36:36 PM »
ENSO really took it on the chin yesterday. A pair of articles (WaPo and DM) dissected the seasonal precipitation forecast issued by NOAA's 'Climate Prediction Center' on 17 Nov 2022 for the drought-stricken West.

Supposedly elaborate models, historical data, the latest satellites, deep AI and supercomputers lie behind the graphics but to me they are indistinguishable from a monkey at the keyboard combining persistence* and discredited 'La Nina is dry' theory.

In my view, low or no confidence output is best kept in-house and certainly not pushed out onto the public or water managers. Furthermore, govt science agencies should not gamble away long-term credibility and never ever label seasonal weather outlooks as climate prediction.

What NOAA did here was feed the denial dog at the table, undercutting the educational efforts of so many while damaging overall public trust in science. FEMA, CDC, NIAID and now NOAA.

Lesson learned? NOAA did not apologize but instead demanded more money from Congress, as if more billions would somehow get at the root of what went wrong.

Indeed the CPC Director said the 'Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge would accelerate NOAA's ability to improve precipitation forecasts for stakeholders' while paradoxically noting 'precipitation forecasts beyond two weeks are inherently valuable to society even though they have inherently low skill.'

The director added the outlook was heavily influenced by the expected continuation of La Niña conditions. “Forecasting on a seasonal time scale is dominated by the El Niño/La Niña cycle."

Maybe it shouldn't be. ENSO is not that applicable to California (and parts east) because unpredictable atmospheric river frequency controls the precip numbers.

An official with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction stressed the importance of NOAA's forecasts.

'The hardworking forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round,' said Michael Farrar PhD, director of the NCEP. 'NOAA's new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we'll be rolling out in the coming years.'

Yet you rolled it out anyway knowing it was not ready. Maybe get back to us when you have an actual product.

ENSO involves a quasi-periodic variation in ocean heat release that's significant on a planetary scale so surely has follow-on tele-effects. GoogScholar finds 336,000 articles of which 786 were published in the last two weeks.

However ENSO comes with three problems: lack of lead time predictability, no assurance it will dominate lesser phenomena, and its potentially misleading explanative plausibility.

The third issue unfortunately comes up all the time in the physical sciences, eg sterile neutrinos. Here it means El Nino releases heat, so more water evaporates to the atmosphere, meaning more vapor is available for rain, so the year is wetter than it otherwise would have been.

Very plausible underlying physics yet nonetheless it gave the wrong result. It's very hard to shake that off and get on with what is really controlling the precip.

*Persistence is a technical term in meteorology meaning the weather tends to keep on doing what it has been doing. 'Skill' is a technical term for measuring how well forecasts outperform local persistence.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/15/california-seasonal-forecasts-noaa-missed/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11641113/NOAA-slammed-failing-predict-Californias-devastating-atmospheric-river-storms.html
« Last Edit: January 17, 2023, 04:50:08 PM by A-Team »

kassy

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #36 on: January 17, 2023, 08:16:17 PM »
Maybe NOAA took one on the chin. The global system keeps doing what it does responding to what we do.

Quote
Here it means El Nino releases heat, so more water evaporates to the atmosphere, meaning more vapor is available for rain, so the year is wetter than it otherwise would have been.

A warmer atmosphere holds more water which means clouds can go higher and drift further. Maybe it is more important where the clouds go?

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The Walrus

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #37 on: January 17, 2023, 11:27:47 PM »
Maybe NOAA took one on the chin. The global system keeps doing what it does responding to what we do.

Quote
Here it means El Nino releases heat, so more water evaporates to the atmosphere, meaning more vapor is available for rain, so the year is wetter than it otherwise would have been.

A warmer atmosphere holds more water which means clouds can go higher and drift further. Maybe it is more important where the clouds go?

Maybe they have no clue where the clouds go.

The Walrus

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #38 on: January 18, 2023, 03:06:12 AM »
I mean something like this chart, but I cannot find an updated version to 2022.



Edit: Here's a similar one to 2021



It appears the GSMT differences between ENSO peaks and troughs is about 0.3C. I can easily see a spike of 1.5C within the next couple of years, but cannot see 2.0C this decade.

That chart appears to be at odds with the previous claims of La Nina years being 0.2C colder, while El Nino years are 0.2C warmer.  The difference between El Nino years and La Nina years is only 0.1C on that graph.

A-Team

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #39 on: January 18, 2023, 04:53:12 PM »
Quote
Nine atmospheric rivers since late Dec: what ever became of ENSO?
I predict imminent serious flooding of preprint servers with articles offering up explanations for (yet another) very wet La Nina in California.

Checking today, GoogScholar had 493 results for 'enso california' limited to 2023. However most of these were written six months or more ago and are just now surfacing at journals. Here we are looking only for post-Jan 15th articles taking recent events into consideration.

Under these circumstances, the best way to stay on top of developments is probably the WeatherWest twitter site of Daniel Swain which effectively relays the best insider sources. https://twitter.com/weather_west?lang=en

√ Clouds can go higher and drift further

Could indeed be involved but 'when we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe'.

Low Cloud–SST Feedback over the Subtropical Northeast Pacific and the Remote Effect on ENSO Variability
Liu Yang et al   22 Dec 2022
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/2/JCLI-D-21-0902.1.xml

Low clouds frequent the subtropical northeastern Pacific Ocean (NEP) and interact with the local sea surface temperature (SST) to form positive feedback. Wind fluctuations drive SST variability through wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback, and surface evaporation also acts to damp SST.

Over the summer NEP, the low cloud–SST feedback is so large that it exceeds the evaporative damping and amplifies summertime SST variations. The WES feedback causes the locally enhanced SST variability to propagate southwestward from the NEP low cloud deck, modulating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrence upon reaching the equator. As a result, a second-year La Niña tends to occur when there are significant cold SST anomalies over the subtropical NEP in summer following an antecedent La Niña event ...

√ It's those darned fluctuations of AO, MJO, ENSO and PNATP

On the Relationship of Arctic Oscillation with Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Western US
Samuel Liner et al  02 August 2022
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/15/2392 

More precipitation is observed in lower latitudes during negative AO months and farther north (north of 45° N) in latitude during positive AO months. These are associated with wavelike synoptic patterns in negative AO months and more straight-line type synoptic patterns in positive AO months.

There is no statistically significant difference between either negative AO or positive AO phase, especially in southern California. In addition, the snow water equivalent  tends to be reduced in the positive AO phase and under high-temperature conditions, especially in recent years (2010s). The similar relationships are found in the early 1990s and 2000s, but their statistical significances are low. 

Atmospheric rivers are characterized by the filamentary shape of strong water vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones and proceeded by a low-level jet stream, categorized by an IVT greater than ~250 kg/m/s and high integrated water vapor >2 cm. Although ARs only cover about ten percent of the globe longitudinally, they transport up to ninety percent of poleward water vapor.

ARs contribute up to fifty percent of the state’s annual precipitation and streamflow. An increased number of ARs can also influence the snowpack. Rain-on-snow events  and AR events occurring in different locations can have opposing effects on snowpack.

The actual contribution of ARs to the rain and snowpack in California depends on where they make landfall. Since water vapor transported in ARs is lower in the atmosphere (under ~700 hPa), it is especially subject to orographic lifting. The type of terrain influences how much water vapor falls as precipitation and how far inland the AR’s influence reaches; the number of ARs reaching the interior is highest in the Pacific Northwest while fewer ARs make it over the High Sierra Nevada mountains and into the Great Basin.

Although ARs are largely governed by the regional moisture flux and meteorological conditions, they are also controlled by large-scale climate variability with different temporal scales. The climate variability, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Pacific/North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA) frequently fluctuate demonstrating possible linkages to ARs.

√ The climate varies a lot but periodically locks in

Temporal and geographic extent of the late Holocene dry period in the central Great Basin
Scott Mensing et al
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379122005315

We provide evidence from pollen and radiocarbon dating of wet meadow sediments for the presence of multi-centennial drought, termed the Late Holocene Dry Period (LHDP), in the central Great Basin between 3100 and 1800 cal yr BP. We examine four sites spanning the boundary of the anti-phasing dipole pattern of precipitation associated with ENSO.

The LHDP conforms to the dipole pattern but contains three different phases, an initial 900-year dry period, followed by 200 years of wetter climate and then another 200 years of extreme drought. The dipole boundary appears to have shifted to a new semi-stable position with each period.

A review of lake levels, tree-rings, and submerged stumps suggest that the drought between 2000 and 1800 cal yr BP was of greater magnitude than that recorded during the MCA megadrought.

We do not yet have sufficient information to establish a cause for megadroughts, however it is important to note that the climate system periodically locks into a pattern with a consistently northward shifted storm track that persists for multiple decades to centuries, bringing persistent drought to the American Southwest.

√ asking a scientist for an opinion gets something hedged to the point of uselessness

Bruce S posts: 'Not climate change. And not El Niño either. But it feels like one though the Walker circulation hasn’t switched so not really El Niño.The jet stream is pointed straight at us in ways that look exactly how an El Niño would act.  Just because 1969, 1982-83, and 1997-98 were El Niño and super wet means nothing. It is the way the jet steam has dropped in latitude so that California rather than the Pacific Northwest is getting the storms and rainfall.'
« Last Edit: January 18, 2023, 08:03:59 PM by A-Team »

Bruce Steele

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #40 on: January 18, 2023, 05:59:06 PM »
1969 was the first time I remember there being relentless rains in Southern Calif.  There was a series of storms that hit in Jan. , a break, then a resumption of storms in Feb.  It was way worse than what we have seen so far this year. But now with reservoirs less able to hold back extreme rains due them now being full I worry about some repeat of past events.
 I don’t know if it is relevant but there is an area of elevated seawater temperatures stretching west/ southwest of Southern Calif. which IMO are anomalous during a La Niña . The warm water is positioned under the track of the atmospheric rivers that carried all that rain to us in S Cal over the last couple weeks. If another series of storms form in Feb. or March I am afraid of the consequences.
  https://www.pressenterprise.com/2016/01/17/back-in-the-day-two-waves-of-rain-caused-the-flood-of-1969/

gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #41 on: January 18, 2023, 10:53:33 PM »
Attached is a table of ENSO values from 2000 to 2022, analysed into 12 2 monthly periods (1).

Of note is that the yearly average is a sometimes misleading guide to condtions during the year. For example, in 2010 from February to June (just 5 months) ENSO values switched from +0.5 to -2.4. A quick look at the table suggests to me that the switch from El Nino to La Nina tends to be faster than the switch from La Nina to El Nino. In 2023 a few months of ENSO Neutral before any El Nino?

Also to note is that -ve ENSO values seem more common than +ve ENSO values. So I checked, restricting it  to values >= +0.5 (El Nino) & <= -0.5 (la Nina). I also chose 3 ranges 1979 to 1999, 2000-2022, and 1979 to 2022
Results (no of values)
                    1979 to 1999           2000 to 2022      1979 to 2022
El Nino                  86                             36                      122
La Nina                 58                            116                      174

& there was the surprise. In the years 1979 to 1999 there were more El Nini months than La Nina months. But in 2000 to 2022 there were more than 3 times La Nina months than El Nino months.

Does this mean than La Nina events are set on a course to increase while El Nino events diminish (with our current La Nina an example)? I have seen no reference to this anywhere.

Although the annual average seems to me of limited value, I thought I might as well use the values to make a graph (the 2nd image attached). And yes, it suggests that the annual average ENSO index is declining, although the R2 value is very low.

click images to enlarge. First image (the table) is very large so click maximise for full size.

__________________________________________________
Note (1) Why the source table uses 2 month averages and not simply monthly values is a mystery to me. But you use what you can get.
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El Cid

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #42 on: January 19, 2023, 04:01:14 PM »
I've also created some graphs.

The first shows the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) vs. detrended temperature anomaly. This one basically shows what effect Nino or Nina years have on global temperatures. We can see that major Ninos increase temperatures by 0,15-0,25 C vs the trend, and Ninas reduce it by somewhat less.

The second one shows global temperatures filtered from Nino/Nina effects. We can see the very strong uptrend that started between 1970-1980. Also the Pinatubo effect can be seen (red circle).

The third one uses this filtered global temperature series and shows the 10 year rate of change. Pinatubo is also there in 1992-94 and the high values between 2002-4 are also because of that, and there seems to be some acceleration recently  from cca 0,15-0,2 C/decade to close to 0,3 C /decade.

oren

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #43 on: January 19, 2023, 04:43:53 PM »
Great charts.

A-Team

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #44 on: January 20, 2023, 06:20:22 PM »
The WeatherWest guy is alluding to a couple of misguided articles in the LA Times that I won't link to either.

The reporters were not familiar with the concept of attribution in climate science, the distinctiveness of La Nina precipitation years, the over-pumped subsoil compactification forever preventing groundwater recharge, the need to keep creeping salination at bay and the futility of mitigation.

The total acreage of California is 101,676,000 acres (41m hectares) so 11.47" of rain (10' deep over all of Holland) in this extended event amounts to 97,185,310 acre-feet, enough to water 16,197,552 acres of alfalfa (the #1 use) though quite a bit was "lost" to salmon estuaries and the like.

Satellites show large amounts of sediment off the burn scars reaching the ocean: drought fire years thus synergize with flood years to the extent climate change brings more frequent extremes.

It's probably not that productive to compare 1862 rainfall etc to 2023 as if the topic were sport statistics. The climate is quite different now and mechanisms may be too. Once we have attribution, we can ask whether these events will become more frequent or worse in the near future.

While it's too soon for anything definitive, below are three 2022 articles of possible interest:

Why Seasonal Prediction of California Winter Precipitation Is Challenging
Xianan Jiang et al   07 Dec 2022
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/12/BAMS-D-21-0252.1.xml

Our predictive skill for CA winter precipitation remains limited. October hindcasts by the coupled dynamical models typically show a correlation skill of about 0.3 for CA winter (November–March) precipitation. In this study, an attempt is made to understand the underlying processes that limit seasonal prediction skill for CA winter precipitation.

It is found that only about 25% of interannual variability of CA winter precipitation can be attributed to influences by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Instead, the year-to-year CA winter precipitation variability is primarily due to circulation anomalies independent from ENSO, featuring a circulation center over the west coast United States as a portion of a short Rossby wave train pattern over the North Pacific.

Analyses suggest that dynamical models show nearly no skill in predicting these ENSO-independent circulation anomalies, thus leading to limited predictive skill for CA winter precipitation.

The low predictability of the ENSO-independent circulation anomalies could be due to chaotic internal atmospheric processes over the mid- to high latitudes. This study pinpoints an urgent need for improved understanding of the formation mechanisms of ENSO-independent circulation anomalies.

Enhanced Hydroclimatic Variability Over California
Diana Zamora-Reyes 2022 and 3 associated articles
https://www.proquest.com/openview/29c41c9c9de286a6dfa19c305e9ee1b1/1.pdf

There is a significant positive trend in precipitation variability in southern and northern California during the winter (January to March) that is driven by an increase in the magnitude of wet extremes. This trend has been steadily increasing since the mid-20th century and that this configuration is not seen in fall, spring, or summer. Precipitation and streamflow during the fall have a decreasing trend in variability driven by wet extremes decreasing in magnitude over time. This trend is particularly strong over central California and suggests dire future consequences to the agricultural hub if this trend persists.

Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change
AC Michaelis, A Gershunov et al
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021EF002537

California's hydroclimate is dominated by extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), resulting in impressive volatility of the region's Mediterranean precipitation regime marked by wild swings between deficient and excessive water years where the relative presence (or absence) of intense ARs is associated with historic challenges in water resource management (Swain 2018). Climate change is contributing, and is expected to contribute further, to existing water-resource challenges in the region by eroding mountain snowpack (Rhoades 2018) and reducing the frequency of precipitation (Luković 2021).

Extreme precipitation events in California, however, are projected to become stronger and more frequent, mainly due to more potent (i.e., wetter, wider, and longer) ARs in a warmer climate (Baek 2021).
« Last Edit: January 20, 2023, 09:24:05 PM by A-Team »

kassy

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #45 on: January 20, 2023, 10:46:29 PM »
And even more in Luxemburg.

With increasing temperatures there will be more water in these events and in between it will be much drier. I am more interested in the global effects of the next peak. They will probably be known before there is any progress on attribution and or local predictions.
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trm1958

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #46 on: January 22, 2023, 11:38:25 PM »
For what Paul Beckwith's opinion is worth:

El Niño likely to start mid-2023 and cause global average temperatures to exceed 1.5C in 2024
Quote
When the next El Niño occurs, it seems pretty obvious that we will likely set the highest global average temperature ever. In this video I chat about how this is likely to occur in the next couple of years.

According to NOAA and others, by mid-2003 we will likely start to transition from our weakening La Niña state to neutral and then to an El Niño, models suggest that by next Fall odds are about even that we will be in an El Niño state, and 2023 global average temperature is likely to compete with the record levels set in 2016. Hold on to your hats. Since the atmospheric warming lags the ocean temperature warming by about 3-4 months, this means that 2024 will likely be the warmest year yet by far, in fact temperatures will possibly exceed 1.5 C for the entire year.

My Part I video was abruptly cut off by my phone alarm, so I continued my discussions with Part II.

How strong will this El Niño be? Even a weak one is likely to push global average temperatures to record levels; while a super-El Nino (like in 2015-2016 and also 1998) will surely blow away the previous global average temperature records. When this happens, we will really wonder about how humanity can survive, let alone thrive with these new extremes in weather and climate.


Part 2: Next El Niño likely to turbocharge global temperature records into exceeding 1.5C in 2024
Quote
Part 2:
When the next El Niño occurs, it seems pretty obvious that we will likely set the highest global average temperature ever. In this video I chat about how this is likely to occur in the next couple of years.

According to NOAA and others, by mid-2003 we will likely start to transition from our weakening La Niña state to neutral and then to an El Niño, models suggest that by next Fall odds are about even that we will be in an El Niño state, and 2023 global average temperature is likely to compete with the record levels set in 2016. Hold on to your hats. Since the atmospheric warming lags the ocean temperature warming by about 3-4 months, this means that 2024 will likely be the warmest year yet by far, in fact temperatures will possibly exceed 1.5 C for the entire year.

My Part I video was abruptly cut off by my phone alarm, so I continued my discussions with Part II.

How strong will this El Niño be? Even a weak one is likely to push global average temperatures to record levels; while a super-El Nino (like in 2015-2016 and also 1998) will surely blow away the previous global average temperature records. When this happens, we will really wonder about how humanity can survive, let alone thrive with these new extremes in weather and climate.


Why I think the next El Niño will be a Super-El Nino and Occur in 2024-2025: Record Warm Oceans
Quote
I chat all about our record warm oceans. Two new and very significant peer reviewed scientific papers just came out in the last week; in early days of 2023.

The first talks about how global OHC (Ocean Heat Content) of the water between the surface and depths of 2000 meters set a new record in 2022, up about 10 ZJ (10**22) Joules. Also, Salinity Contrast (SC) set a new record, as did stratification (layering) of the oceans. More regionally, most of the ocean basins of the planet warmed significantly. Over 90% of the heat captured by Greenhouse Gas Emissions goes into the oceans. A more detailed study shows that 93% of the heat warms the oceans, 3% warms the cryosphere (ice and snow warming and melting) and only 1% of the heat warms the atmosphere (and we humans tend to talk ONLY about our atmospheric and climate (plus weather extreme changes).

The second paper talks about the first paper, and adds the changing OHC of deeper ocean, of heat added to the ocean by the ocean floor, and also by mechanical mixing (for example tides). It also try’s to put todays ocean heating in the context of heating from 1870 to now, from the Little Ice Age period to now (1000 to now), from the Common Era (last 2000 years), and also from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 20,000 years ago, or so).

Warning occurring now in the oceans breaks new records every single year.

dnem

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #47 on: January 29, 2023, 04:40:13 PM »
This might be more properly a Stupid Question but is there a formal definition of a "super El Niño"? I see the El Niño's associated with big jumps in global temps (e.g. 1982, 1998, and 2015-2016) referred to as "super," but are there metrics intrinsic to an El Niño itself that make it super (sea surface temps, wind speeds, El Niño indices?)? Or is it just an El Niño that is associated with a big jump in global temps?


kassy

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #48 on: January 29, 2023, 07:55:05 PM »
Well El Niño was there before the current temperature rise. The whole how much increase at the next El Niño is rather new so no there is no definition of that type. It is descriptive. 
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El Cid

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Re: ENSO 2023
« Reply #49 on: January 29, 2023, 10:00:54 PM »
This might be more properly a Stupid Question but is there a formal definition of a "super El Niño"? I see the El Niño's associated with big jumps in global temps (e.g. 1982, 1998, and 2015-2016) referred to as "super," but are there metrics intrinsic to an El Niño itself that make it super (sea surface temps, wind speeds, El Niño indices?)? Or is it just an El Niño that is associated with a big jump in global temps?

This is the el nino index, whenever it gets to (or close to) 2 it's a super ElNino. I found 5 of these:
1965
1972/73
1982/83
1997/98
2015/16



https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Other than that see my analysis of jan19/2023 above where nino index values are correlated to the global temperature anomaly