2022 Mauna Loa CO2 levels

[kassy]

When was the last year that didn't produce a 'new' maximum CO2 concentration?

See reply 31 for a list i made.

Edit since it is last page i repost it here.
The monthly value were selected for the first time they hit a value in the part before the point.
420.23 419.05 418.94

Monthly average carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have reached above 420 parts per million (ppm) for the first time on record.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/carbon-dioxide-record-co2-b2072614.html



#            decimal       monthly    de-season  #days  st.dev  unc. of
#             date         average     alized          of days  mon mean
1958    3   1958.2027      315.70      314.43     -1   -9.99   -0.99
1972    5   1972.3716      330.07      327.14     -1   -9.99   -0.99
1986    5   1986.3750      350.52      347.42     18    0.31    0.14
2002    4   2002.2917      375.19      372.54     29    0.55    0.19
2009    5   2009.3750      390.36      387.24     30    0.51    0.18
2013    5   2013.3750      400.02      396.64     28    0.37    0.13
2016    3   2016.2083      405.06      403.54     28    0.81    0.29
2018    4   2018.2917      410.45      407.65     21    0.90    0.38
2021    1   2021.0417      415.52      415.16     29    0.44    0.16
2020    4   2020.2917      416.45      413.70     28    0.66    0.24
2020    5   2020.3750      417.31      413.82     27    0.61    0.23
2021    6   2021.4583      418.94      416.51     28    0.65    0.23 (so after 419 was hit)
2021    4   2021.2917      419.05      416.30     24    1.12    0.44
2022    4   2022.2917      420.23      417.48     28    0.91    0.33

https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

[Stephan]

When was the last year that didn't produce a 'new' maximum CO2 consentration?

There was no year that had an annual average below the level of the preceding year.
On a monthly basis some months had a value below that of the year before. In the list I give the number of months with a decrease of CO₂ compared with the year before:

1959   1
1963   1
1965   3
1971   1
1974   2

Since then all values were positive... 

[crandles]

When was the last year that didn't produce a 'new' maximum CO2 consentration?

Depends what metric, by annual average - not since measurements began 1959 https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt

But if you mean daily max, then recently (within last three years I think - I believe I remember spotting a wild data point)

[Stephan]

Like every Sunday evening there is an update from NOAA on weekly CO₂ at Mauna Loa:

Week beginning on July 10, 2022:     419.08 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          417.25 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      394.59 ppm
Last updated: July 17, 2022

The annual increase went down to 1.83 ppm. It is lower than the 10y average of 2.45 ppm/a. Like last week the intra-day variations were very large, one day was "unavailable".

[Stephan]

Please find the latest Mauna Loa CO₂ weekly average.

Week beginning on July 17, 2022:     418.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             417.14 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     394.64 ppm
Last updated: July 24, 2022

The annual increase went down to 1.31 ppm. Of course it is lower than the 10 year average of 2.38 ppm/a.
The intra-day and inter-day variations were quite large, one day was "unavailable". So these numbers can't be taken too seriously.

[Stephan]

Another weekend is almost over. Here is the latest news from NOAA concerning Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on July 24, 2022:     417.84 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          415.68 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       394.11 ppm
Last updated: July 31, 2022

The annual increase is back to more than 2 ppm (2.16 ppm), but still lower than the 10 year average of 2.37 ppm/a.
Like last week the hourly and the daily averages were highly variable, one day (July 24) was unavailable. Therefore this weekly average again can't be taken too seriously.

[Stephan]

It is the fifth of a new month, therefore the latest monthly Mauna Loa CO₂ average has been published:

July 2022:       418.90 ppm
July 2021:       416.96 ppm
July 2012:         394.36 ppm
Last updated: August 5, 2022

As to be expected the seasonal trend of the CO₂ concentration declines.
The annual increase is at 1.94 ppm which is below the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. July 2022 is at 123.7 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.45 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -0.51 ppm/a below it.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening in Germany - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on July 31, 2022:     418.19 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          415.10 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       393.55 ppm
Last updated: August 7, 2022

The annual increase has increased to more than 3 ppm (3.09 ppm/a). This is obviously higher than the 10 y average of 2.46 ppm/a.
The values were again noisy this week, but less than the two weeks before.

[gerontocrat]

And here are the monthly graphs

Mauna Loa - to July 22,
Global - to May 22

[Stephan]

Reliably on Sunday evening you'll get the latest weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average.

Week beginning on August 7, 2022:     417.34 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            414.61 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         393.42 ppm
Last updated: August 14, 2022

The annual increase went down a little bit to 2.73 ppm, but is still above the 10 year average of 2.39 ppm/a. The values have (partly) stabilized, but one day (Aug 08) was "unavailable", and the last two days showed high intra-day variations.

[Stephan]

It is time to give you an update on Mauna Loa CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on August 14, 2022:     417.26 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           414.92 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        392.57 ppm
Last updated: August 21, 2022

The annual increase of 2.34 ppm is now below the 10 y average (2.47 ppm/a). The last week saw moderate intra-day variations and a consequent decrease, according to the seasonal trend.

[Stephan]

Please find the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on August 21, 2022:     416.56 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          414.37 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        391.49 ppm
Last updated: August 28, 2022

The annual increase went down to 2.19 ppm, which is again lower than the 10y average of 2.51 ppm/a. The daily values went down according to the seasonal cycle. The intra- and inter-day variations became pretty small.

[crandles]

It is the fifth of a new month, therefore the latest monthly Mauna Loa CO₂ average has been published:

July 2022:       418.90 ppm
July 2021:       416.96 ppm
July 2012:         394.36 ppm
Last updated: August 5, 2022

As to be expected the seasonal trend of the CO₂ concentration declines.
The annual increase is at 1.94 ppm which is below the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. July 2022 is at 123.7 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.45 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -0.51 ppm/a below it.

That the CO2 increase is below the trend is not surprising given the strengthening La Nina. But how much effect should this have to put the .51 ppm/a into context?

My method for adjusting for ENSO may well be far from perfect, see graph below to see what I have done. Using that

I have the Aug 2021 to July 2022 expected increase in CO2 over the previous year without ENSO adjustment to be 2.48ppm/a.

With ENSO adjustment I get the expected increase to be 2.21ppm/a

The actual increase for that year (over the previous year) is 1.97ppm/a.

(Edit apologies for misspelling annual in graph)

[Stephan]

Another weekend is almost behind us. Please find the actualised Mauna Loa weekly CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on August 28, 2022:     416.54 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              412.83 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           392.02 ppm
Last updated: September 04, 2022

The annual increase has risen to 3.71 ppm/a, which is higher than the 10 y average of 2.45 ppm/a.
In contrast to the usual daily decrease according to the season the weekly average is almost the same as last week. In addition three days were "unavailable". Please do not overestimate this large jump in the increase rate.

[kassy]

OK, we will wait a week. 

[Stephan]

NOAA has published the August Mauna Loa CO₂ average.

August 2022:       417.19 ppm
August 2021:       414.47 ppm
August 2012:    392.39 ppm
Last updated: Sep 05, 2022

As to be expected the seasonal trend of the CO₂ concentration declines.
The annual increase is at 2.72 ppm which is above the 10y average of 2.48 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. August 2022 is at 123.2 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.45 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by +0.27 ppm/a above it.

[gerontocrat]

& here is the graph

also Global CO2 ppm

[Stephan]

Another weekend has almost passed, time for an update of the weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average.

Week beginning on September 04, 2022:     416.33 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    413.41 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                391.85 ppm
Last updated: September 11, 2022

The annual increase of 2.92 ppm stays above the 10 year average of 2.45 ppm/a. The daily decrease has almost come to an end (typical for this season). The daily data and their hourly deviations have stabilized and somewhat smoothened. Therefore this week's result is much more solid than those of one week ago.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening means a new weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average.

Week beginning on September 11, 2022:     416.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    413.07 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                 391.10 ppm
Last updated: September 18, 2022

The annual increase of almost 3 ppm (2.98 ppm) is higher than the 10 year average of 2.50 ppm/a.
At the beginning of last week the values had a high intra-day variability, one day was "unavailable". The daily averages went down slightly towards the end of the week and could be close to the seasonal minimum.

[Stephan]

The latest weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ is available.

Week beginning on September 18, 2022:     415.57 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    413.32 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                 391.02 ppm
Last updated: September 25, 2022

The annual increase went down to 2.25 ppm/a which is lower than the 10 year average of 2.46 ppm/a. The daily values stepped down by 1.6 ppm on Sep 22. Whether this step down is real or will be "healed" next week has to be evaluated in the following week.

[Stephan]

A new weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average is available.

Week beginning on September 25, 2022:     415.57 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    413.32 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                 391.07 ppm
Last updated: October 02, 2022

This reads like a duplicate of last week's average, but the average of the last seven days just calculates to 415.57 ppm. We are at the bottom of the seasonal minimum. From now on there will be increases until the seasonal maximum in May 2023.

[Stephan]

It is the fifth of a new month, therefore the latest monthly Mauna Loa CO₂ average has been published:

September 2022:       415.95 ppm
September 2021:       413.30 ppm
September 2012:       391.11 ppm
Last updated: October 5, 2022

As to be expected the seasonal trend of the CO₂ concentration declines and should now have reached its seasonal minimum.
The annual increase is at 2.65 ppm which is above the 10y average of 2.48 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. September 2022 is at 122.8 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.45 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -0.51 ppm/a below it.

[gerontocrat]

& here is the graph... plus the graph for global CO2 to July

click image to enlarge

[Stephan]

Thank you - as always - for the graphs

[Stephan]

On Sunday evening a new weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average is available.

Week beginning on October 02, 2022:     415.26 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               413.52 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            391.06 ppm
Last updated: October 09, 2022

The annual increase is at 1.74 ppm, much lower than last week and lower than the 10 y average of 2.42 ppm/a. This week probably represents the seasonal minimum with Oct 05 at 414.89 ppm.

[Stephan]

Another weekend has almost passed. So it is time for the latest Mauna Loa CO2 weekly average.

Week beginning on October 09, 2022:     415.51 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               413.84 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             391.09 ppm
Last updated: October 16, 2022

The annual increase of 1.67 ppm is comparable with last week. It is much lower than the 10 y average (2.44 ppm/a). The values were very stable and show a slight increase from day to day. The seasonal minimum has now passed.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening means a new weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average has been published.

Week beginning on October 16, 2022:     415.88 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                414.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             391.20 ppm
Last updated: October 23, 2022

The annual increase stays at a low level (1.49 ppm, much less than the 10 year average of 2.47 ppm/a). As last week the daily averages were smoothly rising according to the seasonal cycle. The daily averages show a great stability.

[Stephan]

Sorry for the delay...
The last Mauna Loa CO₂ weekly average from Oct 30, 2022:

Week beginning on October 23, 2022:     416.30 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               413.96 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            391.58 ppm
Last updated: November 01, 2022

The annual increase of 2.34 is higher than last weeks, but still below the 10y average of 2.47 ppm/a. Unlike the weeks before the daily averages were quite bumpy with one "unavailable" day.

[Stephan]

This Sunday I promised myself not to forget to deliver the update on Mauna Loa CO₂. Here it is.

Week beginning on October 30, 2022:     416.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               414.09 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            391.81 ppm
Last updated: November 06, 2022

The annual increase stayed at 2.34 ppm, which is again lower than the 10 year average of 2.46 ppm/a. Last week the intraday variability reduced markedly. The increase from day to day is typical for this season.

[Stephan]

The monthly averages of Mauna Loa CO₂ have recently been published.

October 2022:       415.78 ppm
October 2021:       413.93 ppm
October 2012:       391.05 ppm
Last updated: Nov 05, 2022

Later than expected the seasonal trend of the CO₂ concentration has now reached its seasonal minimum.
The annual increase is at 1.85 ppm which is below the 10y average of 2.47 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. October 2022 is at 122.7 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.45 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -0.60 ppm/a below it.

[gerontocrat]

& here is the graph (plus one for global CO2 to August 2022)

[Stephan]

Thank you - as always - for the nice graphs.

[Stephan]

Another weekend has almost passed. Please find the latest Mauna Loa CO₂ weekly average.

Week beginning on November 06, 2022:     417.18 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   414.92 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                392.71 ppm
Last updated: November 13, 2022

The annual increase has decreased a little bit to 2.26 ppm, which is again lower than the 10y average of 2.45 ppm/a. On two days there was no measurement, and on Nov 11 the values made a jump. Therefore this week's average should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Stephan]

Please find another weekly Mauna Loa CO₂ average.

Week beginning on November 13, 2022:     417.29 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   414.80 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                393.55 ppm
Last updated: November 20, 2022

The annual increase is now at 2.49 ppm, a little bit above the 10 y average of 2.37 ppm/a. The hourly values were quite bumpy, the daily averages with less fluctuations than last week.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening in Germany - here is my update on Mauna Loa CO₂ average.

Week beginning on November 20, 2022:     418.53 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   415.33 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                393.31 ppm
Last updated: November 27, 2022

The annual increase rose to more than 3 ppm (3.20) and is thus above the 10 y average of 2.52 ppm/a. From Nov 21 on the daily averages were above 418 ppm; and it seems that they are above of where they should be. A slight decrease on Nov 26 seems to indicate that the values might return to "normal" values next week.

[Stephan]

Sunday afternoon - a bit earlier post than usual as I am heading off to the Weihnachtsmarkt to serve people at our stand...

Week beginning on November 27, 2022:     417.74 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   416.02 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                394.14 ppm
Last updated: December 04, 2022

The annual increase is back where it shoulkd be after that heavy increase one week ago. It is at 1.72 ppm, lower than the 10 year average of 2.36 ppm/a. From Nov 25 on values declined from that peak of last week, combined with high intra-day variations and several "unavailable" days. So, please do not take this weekly average too seriously.

[interstitial]

The eruption has knocked the CO2 monitoring station offline. Potential fixes include installing a generator or relocating the station. The article did not mention it but I wonder if the data will be off for a while with the eruption.


https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/12/eruption-knocks-mauna-loa-carbon-monitoring-station-offline/

[trm1958]

The eruption has knocked the CO2 monitoring station offline. Potential fixes include installing a generator or relocating the station. The article did not mention it but I wonder if the data will be off for a while with the eruption.


https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/12/eruption-knocks-mauna-loa-carbon-monitoring-station-offline/

I believe Mauna Loa erupted in 1984? How did they handle it then?

[crandles]

The eruption has knocked the CO2 monitoring station offline. Potential fixes include installing a generator or relocating the station. The article did not mention it but I wonder if the data will be off for a while with the eruption.


https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/12/eruption-knocks-mauna-loa-carbon-monitoring-station-offline/

I believe Mauna Loa erupted in 1984? How did they handle it then?

No missing weeks data in 1984. Perhaps the location of the lava flows just didn't threaten anything important to data collection that eruption? (Whereas this time road threatened?)

it rumbled to life again in 1984, manifesting first at Mauna Loa's summit, and then producing a narrow, channelized ʻaʻā flow that advanced downslope within 6 km (4 mi) of Hilo, close enough to illuminate the city at nighttime. However, the flow got no closer, as two natural levees further up its pathway consequently broke and diverted active flows

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauna_Loa

Hilo is on East of the Island. Observatory slightly west of centre.

[Brigantine]

(Whereas this time road threatened?)
[...]
Hilo is on East of the Island. Observatory slightly west of centre.

The volcano maps conveniently show the observatory and access road



Road and power lines cut in 3 places by this eruption.
Comparison 1984: ("A" is the caldera, "B" is about where Fissure 3 is, and Saddle Road is in both maps)


Volcano Cafe shows what the road (used to?) looks like: (is that the power lines on the left some distance away?)


And a helicopter view of lava crossing the road:

[Stephan]

The monthly averages of Mauna Loa CO₂ have recently been published.

November 2022:       417.51 ppm
November 2021:       415.01 ppm
November 2012:       392.98 ppm
Last updated: Dec 05, 2022

The annual increase is at 2.50 ppm which is close to the 10y average of 2.45 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. November 2022 is at 123.3 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.46 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by a slight +0.04 ppm/a above it.

[gerontocrat]

& here is the graph + global CO2 to Sept.

[Stephan]

Sunday evening, but no actual weekly average of Mauna Loa is available. "Due to the eruption of the Mauna Loa Volcano, updates for Mauna Loa data have been suspended as of Nov. 29."

[Stephan]

Still no actual Mauna Loa CO₂ values due to the eruption of the volcano.

[Stephan]

NOAA has announced "Due to the eruption of the Mauna Loa Volcano, data from Mauna Loa has been suspended as of Nov. 29. Data starting in December 2022 is from a site at the Maunakea Observatories, approximately 21 miles north of the Mauna Loa Observatory."

Therefore weekly averages are available again.

Week beginning on December 18, 2022:     419.11 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   417.31 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:               394.91 ppm
Last updated: December 26, 2022

The annual increase is at 1.80 ppm which is lower than the 10y average of 2.42 ppm/a. The daily and hourly values were very stable, apart from Dec. 20.

A gap of 10 days (Nov 29 - Dec 08) remains as consequence of the volcanic eruption. Nevertheless I think that a quite valualble Dec monthly average is available.

[Stephan]

Another weekend has almost passed - time for an update of Maunakea CO₂ levels.

Week beginning on December 25, 2022:     419.38 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   417.42 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:               394.85 ppm
Last updated: January 01, 2023

The annual increase is 1.96 ppm, lower than the 10 y average of 2.45 ppm/a.
The intra- and inter-day variations were pretty low, but Dec 31 was "unavailable".

[kassy]

It went out to party. 

Thanks for another year of reporting.

[Stephan]

You're welcome, kassy.
I will open the "2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels" thread next week, even if the measurements are actually done at Mauna Kea.
All the best for 2023
Stephan

[Stephan]

It is the fifth of a new month, therefore the latest monthly CO₂ average has been published.

December 2022:       418.95 ppm
December 2021:       416.71 ppm
December 2012:        394.34 ppm
Last updated: Jan 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 2.24 ppm which is below the 10y average of 2.46 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the average of the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. December 2022 is at 123.7 compared to that index.

Compared to the ever increasing increase rate (calculated it should be at 2.46 ppm/a) this month's increase rate is by -0.22 ppm/a below it.

[gerontocrat]

& here is the graph

CO2 global as well - to October 22.

click image to enlarge