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What will be the 2023 minimum JAXA Antarctic sea ice extent?

less than 1 million km2
1 (3.8%)
1-1.25
0 (0%)
1.25-1.5
3 (11.5%)
1.5-1.75
3 (11.5%)
1.75-2
11 (42.3%)
2-2.25
7 (26.9%)
2.25-2.5
1 (3.8%)
2.5-2.75
0 (0%)
2.75-3
0 (0%)
more than 3 million km2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closed: January 21, 2023, 06:56:17 PM

Author Topic: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum  (Read 1380 times)

Steven

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Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« on: January 14, 2023, 06:56:17 PM »
It's about 5 or 6 weeks or so until the minimum, seems a good time for a small poll.

Current conditions: JAXA extent for 13 January 2023 is 3.52 million km2, which is record low for the date.

Minima for the last 10 years:   

2022   2.128 million km2
2021   2.788
2020   2.759
2019   2.425
2018   2.209
2017   2.147
2016   2.657
2015   3.594
2014   3.542
2013   3.685

oren

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2023, 07:48:12 PM »
Due to the low area situation, which I expect to result in a new area minimum, I find it hard to believe 2023 can avoid a new extent minimum as well. Voted for <2M km2.

Stephan

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2023, 09:25:42 PM »
My best guess is with the 2-2.25 M km² bin as since New Year the extent losses have been consequently lower than average. I think this behaviour will continue until the minimum. Even a "not 1st place" seems possible for me.
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Phil.

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2023, 09:53:40 PM »
Can't see any of the FYI surviving so sure that will be below 2.0.

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2023, 04:54:32 AM »
Above 2 million (2-2.25 range).

I think there has to be some melting of the Antarctic ice sheets, which will somehow cool the ocean and slow the melting of the Antarctic sea ice. And I think it is worst to have some melting of the Antarctic ice sheets, than to have a new low record on the  Antarctic sea ice.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2023, 07:06:29 AM »
If Juan is right that the reported (by Steven) high snow melt in parts of the West Antarctica and the Peninsula will cool the ocean and thus reduce sea ice melt, then the current well below average daily sea ice extent loss will continue and maybe reduce further and perhaps result in an earlier that average minimum date.

This would likely mean that the minimum could be well over 2 million km2, say 2.3 million km2, 3rd lowest in the satellite record. Nevertheless, I am plumping for 2023 sea ice extent daily losses to continue lower but still end with a minimum below 2 million (just) at around 1.9 million km2.

I attach the graph of the 7 day trailing average of daily sea ice extent losses, which shows the remorseless reduction in daily sea ice losses, currently around 50,000km2 per day less than the 10 year average.
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Steven

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2023, 08:15:46 PM »
Zack Labe's NSIDC extent anomaly graph also shows the slowdown of the losses in the last 2 weeks.  I would guess a record low minimum is still the most likely outcome, but obviously it looks a lot less certain than a few weeks ago.

Much of the remaining ice is now in Weddell Sea, which is currently on par with last year and 2017.  In the other seas, 2023 is generally ahead of the previous years.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2023, 08:43:07 PM by Steven »

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2023, 06:11:52 AM »
If Juan is right that the reported (by Steven) high snow melt in parts of the West Antarctica and the Peninsula will cool the ocean and thus reduce sea ice melt, then the current well below average daily sea ice extent loss will continue...

It is right that I am concerned of the melt on the surface above, but the true is that I am more concern on the melt below the ice sheets. This paragraph could explain what I am thinking of:

Quote
Now that same canyon was channeling warm ocean water under the Pine Island Ice Shelf. Somewhere tens of miles inland, the warm water was finding the “grounding line”: the place where the glacier lifts off the seafloor and becomes a floating ice shelf. Hitting that wall of ice, the warm water was eroding it, producing a steady stream of melt-laden seawater. Because it was cooler and fresher, it was less dense, and so it was rising above the warmer, incoming water and flowing back out to sea just under the shelf.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change

In Greenland and in Antarctica, we have warm water coming from the oceans, they hit the ice shelfs from below, they melt the ice and then, we have a flow of fresh water, with less salt and cooler than the ocean water. My point is that this fresh water should delay the melt of the Antarctic sea ice, close to the coast (and at the end of the melting season).

There is a video on the National Geographic link (with the title "ANTARCTICA IS MELTING AT A DANGEROUS PACE—HERE'S WHY"), that explains the process with more detail. I was looking for another NG link, but I didn't find it.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2023, 07:11:45 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Steven

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2023, 07:26:19 PM »
24 hours left to vote in this poll, or to change your vote.

My guess is 1.85 million km2 (I voted 1.75-2).  This is based on a linear regression using NSIDC sea ice area as predictor variable.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2023, 08:33:20 PM »
I attach Nico Sun's Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) images to show the potential high level of solar radiation that could have warmed the Antarctic Ocean this melting season. It is a record breaker. Howver, we do not know how cloudy and/or sunny the melting season has been.

The anomaly is especially high offshore the Western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula and below average offshore of the Eastern side where the most stubborn ice in the Weddell sea lives.

I would have thought that these images would indicate that remaining sea ice is vulnerable, The attached image from NOAA of SST anomalies gives a very mixed picture of SST anomalies at high southern latitudes. As usual, the Antarctic remains inscrutable.

link: https://cryospherecomputing.com/NRTawp-south.html

click images to enlarge
« Last Edit: January 20, 2023, 08:47:24 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Steven

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2023, 07:57:15 PM »
JAXA extent dropped below 2.5 million km2 today: it's now 2.48 million km2.  We'll see whether it drops below 2.25 and 2.0 million km2 in the next few weeks.

WildFit

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2023, 09:55:41 PM »
Make the numbers overlapping, it will be so close to 2 that one should be able to vote 1.9-2.1

oren

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Re: Poll: 2023 Antarctic JAXA extent minimum
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2023, 10:33:03 PM »
The poll is already closed. Maybe next time.