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What will PIOMAS 2023 Arctic sea ice volume September average be?

Above 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
1 (5.9%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
1 (5.9%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
7 (41.2%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
3 (17.6%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
2 (11.8%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
2 (11.8%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
1 (5.9%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 17

Voting closed: August 11, 2023, 07:14:28 AM

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Author Topic: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll  (Read 1691 times)

Juan C. García

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PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll
« on: August 01, 2023, 07:14:28 AM »
Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

I add a comparison against the 1979-2000 September Average.

P.S. In the previous PIOMAS polls, I misspelled the years on the tables. The average is for 1979-2000, not 1981-2000.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2023, 07:50:16 AM by Juan C. García »
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2023, 07:27:30 AM »
This one is even harder to get right. There are very few past years conforming to each category. But I'm keeping my 4.50-5.00 vote, constant export and high temps on the American side should make a dent in volume numbers.
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Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2023, 07:41:29 AM »
I changed my vote one bin up, to 4.50-5.00 103 km3.
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2023, 07:53:17 AM »
I stayed with my selection of the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
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It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2023, 07:11:38 PM »
The final Sep avg was 4787 km3, according to Gero's calculations.
8 out of 17 voters got the right bins.
Edit: for the first time in recorded history, I got 9 correct votes out of 9 in our polls this year.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2023, 07:38:13 PM by oren »
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jdallen

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Avg.: August poll
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2023, 11:31:59 PM »
Quote from: oren on October 07, 2023, 07:11:38 PM
The final Sep avg was 4787 km3, according to Gero's calculations.
8 out of 17 voters got the right bins.
Edit: for the first time in recorded history, I got 9 correct votes out of 9 in our polls this year.
Dang it!  Missed by 37km3!
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