Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2023 melting season  (Read 200867 times)

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1188
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 472
  • Likes Given: 118
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #100 on: April 08, 2023, 07:50:13 PM »
Probably a change of weather pattern also with the Arctic high taking control of the weather so fram export should slow right down for the time being. It will be interesting how the ice to the north of Svalbard responds to a change of wind direction also in the coming days.

Not expecting any real dramas in terms of extent and on paper for the ice, the weather patterns do look more ice friendly than they perhaps have been during March.

The Norway Ice Service tweet a regular update on sea ice area in and around Svalbard. Most recent tweet is showing area is a little above the 1991-2020 norm.

Norway Ice Service
@Istjenesten
ยท
Apr 5
The Svalbard seaice area from the ice chart for 5th Apr 2023 is 442,429 sq km. This is 30,284 sq km above the 1991-2020 average.


This is a bit of turnaround since earlier in the year. Anomalies were below normal up to March 16th and since then area has been above.

But back through much of the winter it has been below and very much below normal. As recently as Feb 10th it was at a record low area for that date. Records since 1967.


Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2023, 02:38:08 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 Days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Also added 30 day HYCOM
Large GiFs!
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 385
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #102 on: April 11, 2023, 12:31:51 AM »
Is it me or has the Arctic been unseasonably cold this spring? I'm having trouble fully understanding what is going on right now, but the weather certainly appears to be favorable towards the ice in the immediate. In addition, the Nares Strait remains closed and looks to have 'sealed' itself. Perhaps it is the wind, but the ice seems to have expanded in some areas of the peripheral seas, such as the Bearing and north Atlantic, above Slavbard.

The Arctic always surprises me, so I'm not sure what to make of it or if the weather is just pulling ice further south to be quickly melted away. I shall look into this more.
pls!

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #103 on: April 11, 2023, 09:13:19 AM »
Is it me or has the Arctic been unseasonably cold this spring?
Unfortunately the reanalysis maps don't have Jan-Mar data yet that I can find, but at best, I believe it's been seasonable or only slightly above average, not unusually cold.

Too much moisture has been blowing into the Barents or Chukchi for that to be true.

Numbers will tell, when I/we can see the archive data.
This space for Rent.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #104 on: April 11, 2023, 11:11:01 AM »
Is it me or has the Arctic been unseasonably cold this spring? I'm having trouble fully understanding what is going on right now, but the weather certainly appears to be favorable towards the ice in the immediate. In addition, the Nares Strait remains closed and looks to have 'sealed' itself. Perhaps it is the wind, but the ice seems to have expanded in some areas of the peripheral seas, such as the Bearing and north Atlantic, above Slavbard.

The Arctic always surprises me, so I'm not sure what to make of it or if the weather is just pulling ice further south to be quickly melted away. I shall look into this more.

Well the weather patterns have switched for a few days now and things are calmer over the Arctic with a high pressure cell centred over the basin, temperatures are quite a fair bit below average in the Bering sea area and cold winds are blowing across the Kara sea also at the moment. Whilst temperatures are set to remain cold over the Bering sea, winds are forecast to increase and may start to blow the ice southwards which may show an increase in extent numbers but concentration may go down as thinner ice forms behind.

Hudson Bay is now flirting with warmer air masses coming from the south, nothing too unusual in these times but apart from that, there is nothing noteworthy in terms of weather patterns yet and nor they should be, the main basin melting season is still another 5 to 6 weeks away and it will be interesting too see how things develop.

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1188
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 472
  • Likes Given: 118
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #105 on: April 11, 2023, 03:14:05 PM »
Is it me or has the Arctic been unseasonably cold this spring?
Unfortunately the reanalysis maps don't have Jan-Mar data yet that I can find, but at best, I believe it's been seasonable or only slightly above average, not unusually cold.

Too much moisture has been blowing into the Barents or Chukchi for that to be true.

Numbers will tell, when I/we can see the archive data.

Departures from normal at the 925hPa level (circa 2000ft ASL) for March 2023 from the NSIDC, show warm anomalies over the American side of the basin and negative anomalies over the Eurasian.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #106 on: April 14, 2023, 01:50:42 PM »
The first positive temperatures on the ice in the high arctic are forecasted to happen in 5 days from now. Let's see if this prediction comes true...
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #107 on: April 14, 2023, 07:44:48 PM »
Yep models fairly strongly indicating of a strong ridge on the Pacific side of the basin, still uncertain on details but as you say, we could see our first significant positive temperatures of the season albeit probably only briefly as they will soon drop in any periods of darkness so I don't expect any impacts on the ice apart from any wind assistant movement. 

If that set up occurs a month from now, might be a different story.

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2322
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 251
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #108 on: April 15, 2023, 12:59:46 AM »
Yep models fairly strongly indicating of a strong ridge on the Pacific side of the basin, still uncertain on details but as you say, we could see our first significant positive temperatures of the season albeit probably only briefly as they will soon drop in any periods of darkness so I don't expect any impacts on the ice apart from any wind assistant movement. 

If that set up occurs a month from now, might be a different story.

The EC forecasts also predicts gradual atmospheric warming at higher latitudes of North America, Pacific, and Eurasia. Seems like Spring will be making its official appearance, although briefly in some of these high-latitude locations.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9830
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3594
  • Likes Given: 4022
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #109 on: April 15, 2023, 10:28:14 AM »
An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). This time with a new format and a newer version of the SIC-LEADS algorithm. More information available in the AWI thread.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

10-day ice drift average, courtesy of Steven's site. https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

Cumulative Fram area export according to OSI-SAF, again thanks to Steven.

A chart of Barents AMSR2 area according to AWI, source https://sites.google.com/view/sea-ice/startseite

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #110 on: April 15, 2023, 10:58:17 AM »
An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI).
Truly amazing how fast the ice moved to the southern tip of Greenland in the Greenland Sea. I already saw that movement in the HYCOM model, and now I'm seeing it in this animation too. That's a lot of ice that vanished rapidly...
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #111 on: April 16, 2023, 01:29:06 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 Days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Also added 30 day HYCOM
Large GiFs!
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9830
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3594
  • Likes Given: 4022
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #112 on: April 18, 2023, 02:59:30 PM »
SIMB3 buoys update.
1. air temps
2. ice thickness
3. difference between top of buoy temp and air temp (proxy insolation)

A nice graphic prepared by uniquorn in the buoys thread. All Beaufort buoys show nice thickening during the past few weeks. While the melting season slowly starts in the very peripheral seas, the High Arctic is still in the grip of the freezing season.
Thickening depends on specific conditions (e.g. local air temp at each buoy, amount of snow covering the ice), but in general thinner ice grows faster.


Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #113 on: April 20, 2023, 02:15:56 PM »
Just saw this passing by on Twitter...

Quote
7-day forecast 25.04.2023

One day, opening this map will truly scare me
We are getting closer to that day, IMO

Heat is coming for the sea ice.
Truly disturbing

 #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #ClimateChange

https://twitter.com/ClimatChristo/status/1648372120412471311
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #114 on: April 20, 2023, 02:42:20 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

The end of the high arctic freezing season is nigh...
And Fram export should get another big boost.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #115 on: April 20, 2023, 04:52:10 PM »
Just saw this passing by on Twitter...

Quote
7-day forecast 25.04.2023

One day, opening this map will truly scare me
We are getting closer to that day, IMO

Heat is coming for the sea ice.
Truly disturbing

 #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #ClimateChange

https://twitter.com/ClimatChristo/status/1648372120412471311

I always find him a bit alarmist in truth. Always circuling virtually every area that will see above temperatures.

That said we are going too see a real split in temperatures across the basin with the Beaufort/western parts of the CAB colder than average and the Siberian regions warmer than average. Some strong winds in the next few days across the ESS so we see how the ice responds to that but indications do seem to suggest the colder conditions will return so any holes from ice moving away from the coasts are likely to be short lived.

At least with the Beaufort being colder than normal, it will prevent any early signs of true open water like we saw in 2016/2019.

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2322
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 251
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #116 on: April 20, 2023, 08:19:15 PM »
it looks like that. Itโ€™s an interesting weather in any case with that strong anticyclone that will make the Pacific side ice spin quite a little and some early warm up over the Asian side.

Weโ€™ll have to wait till May to see what way the Beaufort sea ice will be going to follow, but definitely extent losses will start much later than 2016 which was quite extreme.

In the meantime, NH snow cover doesnโ€™t show much in particular, if anything a noticeable delay in North America Spring snow cover loss due to the accumulated snow falls this Winter and early Spring.

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5333
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #117 on: April 20, 2023, 09:32:25 PM »
I didn't see this posted on site yet, figured I'd post it here.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102115

Reducing the Spring Barrier in Predicting Summer Arctic Sea Ice Concentration

Quote
Key Points
   
  • The predictive skill of summer Arctic sea ice using statistical prediction models presents a steep decline initialized before June
  • The spring barrier can be reduced, but not eliminated, by using spring surface heat fluxes in combination with sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature
  • The statistical models using surface heat fluxes help to improve representation of thermodynamics associated with water vapor and cloudiness
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #118 on: April 20, 2023, 10:44:58 PM »
CryoSat-2/SMOS reckons peak volume was reached on April 7th. However PIOMAS begs to differ:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2023/#Apr-19

"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #119 on: April 21, 2023, 09:32:10 AM »
Regarding alarm over high anomalies over the basin - Iโ€™ve seen and reacted to those in the past to see them have little impact on the ice. 

To get my attention now, it needs to happen for *weeks*, otherwise this will be just another modest step in the iceโ€™s inevitable decline, much like the average of the last 10 years or so.

Does this mean it canโ€™t go sideways?  Absolutely not, but right now conditions for the most part are pretty typical for recent history.
This space for Rent.

johnm33

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 127
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #120 on: April 21, 2023, 11:06:52 AM »
Nullschool shows that for a second tidal cycle Atl. penetration is supressed, the flow through Nares suggests a certain amount of inertia is still in play, it's more ambiguous through Fram, where the ice has slowed but possibly not the water beneath it. So for now I'm guessing more penetration at depth throuh Fram and an upturn on the Pacific side to replenish losses. I'm guessing the next low that makes it's way across the Faroes gap and enters the Arctic proper will lead to dramatic, but not world changing, melt as large volumes of Atl. waters flow in it's wake.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2462
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1022
  • Likes Given: 1063
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #121 on: April 21, 2023, 02:08:33 PM »
The ice has accelerated again thru Fram recently . Enough for OSISAF Fram cumulative export for the season to be passing 800,000 sqkm , 5 weeks earlier than in 2019 ..
  meanwhile the closure of Nares is helping reduce ice levels in N.Baffin .
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5333
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #122 on: April 22, 2023, 03:46:58 AM »
Echoes of the Stratospheric Warming still ring across the Atmosphere, helping to sustain a blocking pattern over the Northern Hemisphere
Published 21/04/2023

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/forecast-trend-polar-vortex-stratospheric-warming-cold-anomaly-spring-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

I find it's always a good read at this site & interesting to see how things play out. 3 forecast pix (temp. anomalies):





If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1122
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #123 on: April 22, 2023, 10:24:33 AM »
Interesting stuff in Laptev Sea.  From 8th to 11th April ice moved away from edge of fast ice and thinner new ice formed in the gap created.  Over the last 24 hours the wind seems to have come up again and a fair bit of the thinner ice seems to have disappeared.  I don't think temps are high enough for any melt (models suggest about -5C at 2m) and would suggest its all down to compaction.   As far as I can tell the older brighter ice has not moved much and I'm guessing the thinner ice has been piled up either on the older ice, or onto itself.  Clouds on today's image make it a bit hard to be certain of exactly what is happening, but gaps in the cloud do seem to suggest some open water has appeared.

Location on worldview
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2236
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 239
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #124 on: April 22, 2023, 10:57:49 AM »
Interesting stuff in Laptev Sea. 

According to Nullschool, the temperatures streaming off the ice edge are at around -1C, thus way too high to freeze any newly exposed water. The wind speed is a moderate breeze at 5.5-6.5 m/s, strong enough to push the ice but probably not strong enough to cause turbulence or mechanical breakup.

The wind seems to have been blowing in the same westerly direction most of this month in this area. In the period you mention, the windspeed reached all of 10.5 m/s, a strong breeze on the Beaufort scale and strong enough to push the free-floating ice away from the landfast ice edge. But the temperatures were much lower at -16C or -18C, well below that needed for any leads  to freeze over rapidly.

The wind would have been pushing away from the ice edge all the time, but as the temperatures have been rising to above -11C in the last 24 hours, fresh ice is no longer appearing in the leads.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #125 on: April 22, 2023, 01:33:42 PM »
Interesting stuff in Laptev Sea.

I took another look at SMOS "thin ice thickness", but it seems to have been suffering problems since the 17th.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9830
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3594
  • Likes Given: 4022
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #126 on: April 22, 2023, 04:35:40 PM »
An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). This time with a new format and a newer version of the SIC-LEADS algorithm. More information available in the AWI thread.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

10-day ice drift average, courtesy of Steven's site. https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

Cumulative Fram area export according to OSI-SAF, again thanks to Steven.

A chart of Barents AMSR2 area according to AWI, source https://sites.google.com/view/sea-ice/startseite

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 385
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #127 on: April 22, 2023, 08:27:39 PM »
Thank you for that post and providing the animation, itโ€™s very helpful! It looks like the ice arch in the Nares has collapsed? I looked in worldview and itโ€™s cloudy, but I think it is broken? Please let me know if Iโ€™m incorrect in this.
pls!

KenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #128 on: April 22, 2023, 10:37:23 PM »
Thank you for that post and providing the animation, itโ€™s very helpful! It looks like the ice arch in the Nares has collapsed? I looked in worldview and itโ€™s cloudy, but I think it is broken? Please let me know if Iโ€™m incorrect in this.

I noticed that also; the crack appeared yesterday and seems to have widened considerably today, though it's impossible for me to tell if the entire arch has collapsed yet, or just a chunk off the eastern side.  There's now a lot of room for ice to drain into Baffin Bay. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21062
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5322
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #129 on: April 22, 2023, 10:46:56 PM »
The Arch? Have a look at the Nares Strait thread
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #130 on: April 23, 2023, 01:28:14 PM »
The skies are clear over the Laptev Sea again.

SMOS is still broken, but combined SMOS/SMAP looks (mostly) OK:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5196
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2214
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #131 on: April 23, 2023, 02:27:50 PM »
Not so much fast ice in the N Kara sea this year either. There was high drift speed into the CAB mid jan to mid feb.

https://go.nasa.gov/40w87Xd  light contrast

ascat sep-apr

The Walrus

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2965
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 498
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #132 on: April 24, 2023, 01:55:01 PM »
The ice may finally be starting to melt in stride.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #133 on: April 24, 2023, 02:18:02 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 Days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
And 30 day HYCOM
Large GiFs!
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #134 on: April 25, 2023, 10:23:27 PM »
The ice in the Bering Sea is getting blown to pieces and into warmer southern waters.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #135 on: April 27, 2023, 09:27:42 AM »
The ice in the Bering Sea is getting blown to pieces and into warmer southern waters.
Just been browsing the last week's extent and area numbers, as well as checking weather.

I agree - it looks like the Bering is vulnerable.  I think we'll start seeing serious melt there.

I think the Barents is vulnerable, and I think we'll see an increase in melt numbers there.

Overall, I'm getting a sense of momentum.  That is, I'm seeing melt numbers significantly in excess of trend over the last week or so.  It may be the peripheral seas - Okhotsk, Bering, Barents and Baffin/Gulf of St. Lawrence rather than core pack, but over all, that still serves to increase early season heat uptake.  Must watch the snow depth numbers, which currently don't appear to be showing anything dramatic, but could change.

Another week will confirm or dismiss my impressions.
This space for Rent.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #136 on: April 27, 2023, 12:16:23 PM »
The ice in the Bering Sea is getting blown to pieces and into warmer southern waters.
Just been browsing the last week's extent and area numbers, as well as checking weather.

I agree - it looks like the Bering is vulnerable.  I think we'll start seeing serious melt there.

I think the Barents is vulnerable, and I think we'll see an increase in melt numbers there.

Overall, I'm getting a sense of momentum.  That is, I'm seeing melt numbers significantly in excess of trend over the last week or so.  It may be the peripheral seas - Okhotsk, Bering, Barents and Baffin/Gulf of St. Lawrence rather than core pack, but over all, that still serves to increase early season heat uptake.  Must watch the snow depth numbers, which currently don't appear to be showing anything dramatic, but could change.

Another week will confirm or dismiss my impressions.
And don't forget the Kara sea! There has been some carnage and positive temps there as well.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #137 on: April 27, 2023, 05:02:55 PM »
The Bering melt is pretty normal for the time of year though, if anything compared to most years in the past 10 years, ice seems more extensive but apart from localised SSTS, I think the Bering has very little affect on the ice in the Bering straight/Chukchi sea.

The Kara sea is a little different and looking at the forecast in the medium term, we could see more "dramatic" images with strong southerlies developing from a ridge, temperatures will be above average also, will be interesting too see how that develops if it occurs.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #138 on: April 28, 2023, 08:26:17 PM »
The Bering melt is pretty normal for the time of year though, if anything compared to most years in the past 10 years, ice seems more extensive but apart from localised SSTS, I think the Bering has very little affect on the ice in the Bering straight/Chukchi sea.

The Kara sea is a little different and looking at the forecast in the medium term, we could see more "dramatic" images with strong southerlies developing from a ridge, temperatures will be above average also, will be interesting too see how that develops if it occurs.
/agree in context of the last decade, Bering melt really isn't remarkable.

I'll peek at what the Kara has been doing over the last week or so and review temperatures, but again, in context of the last decade, that's not jumping out at me as demonstrating a significant departure from trend either, at this point.

My initial check of projected temps a couple of days ago showed positive anomalies over the Pacific side of the pack, and somewhat cooler on the Atlantic.

Overall melt numbers in aggregate still seem somewhat elevated, but as mentioned previously, this could be tied primarily to drops in peripheral seas that won't have a significant impact on end of season numbers.

I did take a look at northern hemisphere snow cover.   It doesn't seem that unusual, nor does the forecast suggest radical short term changes, so no sudden shifts in albedo seem to be in the offing.   I do note that over the core pack, snow cover appears to be running at 20-30cm or more.  At this juncture, that's good for preservation unless other things happen which decrease albedo and thereby increase heat uptake from insolation.  One more thing to watch.

So conclusion?  So far nothing to suggest what's happening with melt behavior at this time of year is much distinct from what we've been seeing since about 2015.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #139 on: April 28, 2023, 09:42:49 PM »
<snippage>
The Kara sea is a little different and looking at the forecast in the medium term, we could see more "dramatic" images with strong southerlies developing from a ridge, temperatures will be above average also, will be interesting too see how that develops if it occurs.
A quick review tells me that the Kara *and* Barents have had a bad week to 10 days.

Revisiting the weather also shows strong positive anomalies, but as has been said in the past, it's much less air temp and much more insolation when it comes to ice melt.  If ice is disappearing as it seems, it suggests the heat for melt is already present in the form of warmer ocean temps, particularly with the Barent's melt back.  See gif below. (GCOM-W1/AMSR2 12km sea ice concentration layer on Worldview, Apr 18-28)

Additional thoughts this doesn't appear to be that remarkable yet, as within the history of this forum there have been years when the Kara stayed mostly ice free through the entire refreeze.  However, based also on how it looks and how I've seen the ice behave, I'd put us 8-10 weeks from a pretty complete melt out of the Kara.  Again, not that unusual for the last decade.

The Kara ice is pretty thin - less than 2m for the most part from what I can find - so that's contributing significantly.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2023, 10:03:39 PM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #140 on: April 29, 2023, 12:33:23 AM »
And now to the opposite side of the Arctic.

I expect 95% or more of the ice in this image to be gone by the end of May.

This space for Rent.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9830
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3594
  • Likes Given: 4022
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #141 on: April 29, 2023, 11:02:28 AM »
An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). This time with a new format and a newer version of the SIC-LEADS algorithm. More information available in the AWI thread.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

10-day ice drift average, courtesy of Steven's site. https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

Cumulative Fram area export according to OSI-SAF, again thanks to Steven.

A regional of AMSR2 area according to AWI, source https://sites.google.com/view/sea-ice/startseite

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2236
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 239
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #142 on: April 29, 2023, 11:45:49 AM »
This is an interesting situation in some ways - but is it unique? I have a suspicion that what is happening now is unusal, at the very least.

Export into the Atlantic has been ongoing more or less constantly for several months now, and the latest Nullschool forecasts seem to indicate that it will continue for the foreseeable future, with no real let up. At the same time, the ice front in the Atlantic is not moving - the ice is melting as soon as it gets into warmer waters, so not extending a "cold front" southwards.

At the same time, large areas of the Arctic basin itself are becoming too warm for ocean surface to freeze. Leads created by the relentless push towards the Atlantic will increasingly be left open. This can be seen in the animation above in the Kara sea.

We are getting closer to insolation time, with apparently mostly clear skies and lots of open leads to soak up all that sunshine. Will it lead to some nasy surprises? Time will tell ...
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #143 on: April 30, 2023, 12:52:27 AM »
This is an interesting situation in some ways - but is it unique? I have a suspicion that what is happening now is unusal, at the very least.

/agree - the export through the Fram is very unusual, and probably unmatched since before the massive drops in volume we saw leading up to 2012.  Proportionately, it is a larger fraction of the pack than previously.

The ice not being able to reform is no surprise, especially in the Barents and possibly the Kara.  The only thing keeping it there previously was the loss out of the atmosphere was able to keep up with the heat flow from below the ice that was present.  The rapid melt out of light pack ice west of Nova Zemlya seen  in the gif I posted testifies to that.  I think the NE Barents is going to become a killing zone, and flow into it may destabilize ice all across the east Arctic all the way to the Chukchi.

What happens from there will depend highly on the weather.  We are in unpredictable territory for sure.
This space for Rent.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #144 on: May 02, 2023, 11:34:47 AM »
Quite a deep low forecast for the Laptev sea in the next 48 hours, it is a cold low so it will probably deliver alot of snowfall but it will be interesting how the ice will react to the winds especially when the winds blows the ice away from any landmasses.

Potential in the medium term of early warmth in the CAA which would be fairly early with threats it could hit the Beaufort sea but at this stage that seems a lower threat for now.

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1122
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #145 on: May 03, 2023, 12:31:38 AM »
Low is deep and reasonably tight as well so will push the ice around for sure.  I think it will be cold enough to freeze over gaps formed but its so close to melting season now that any freeze over will not have a chance to get thick and will melt out quickly again once melting commences.

The forecast warmth is quite persistent in EC, although most forecasts of 2m temps seem to be a bit below 0, with only a few runs showing small areas of +ve temps.  So low chance of any melting but I'd be pretty confident that movement of ice away from coast in Beaufort will leave gaps that will not refreeze.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4050
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #146 on: May 03, 2023, 02:56:18 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 Days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
And 30 day HYCOM
Large GiFs!

Also added 2018 to 2023 comparison GIF on May first.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

johnm33

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 127
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #147 on: May 04, 2023, 11:01:30 AM »
Given the present mslp set up, and being in the midst of a tidal cycle I expect to see the ice freed to move along the Barents shelf slope, increased rotation, followed by an uptick through Fram. On the Pacific side an increase of penetration along the es shelf either melting the ice or prepreparing it for rapid melt, and for that to free the ice further north to rotate towards Laptev and Fram. Jakbshavn melange has loosened so a calving there before tuesday seems likely.
 I begin to wonder about the relationship between loss of Arctic waters through Fram, the large cool anomoly and the persistent recurrent lows in the N.Atlantic.
The OSI-SAF above, thanks to Steven, shows the 'natural' movement of the expanding ice sheet, that implies lots of movement and inertia driven compaction, quite where that's happening needs more than an eyeball analysis.

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5333
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #148 on: May 04, 2023, 08:21:37 PM »
Looks like we will possibly see some warmth hanging around the Beaufort region soon.

If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 264
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023 melting season
« Reply #149 on: May 05, 2023, 08:36:59 AM »
Looks like we will possibly see some warmth hanging around the Beaufort region soon.
This will also hit the land snow cover. I expect the early melt ponds in CAA this year