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What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2023 ASIE daily minimum be?

Above 5.25 million km2
1 (2.9%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
10 (28.6%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
9 (25.7%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
9 (25.7%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
2 (5.7%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
2 (5.7%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
1 (2.9%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
1 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 35

Voting closed: July 11, 2023, 03:32:52 AM

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Author Topic: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll  (Read 2567 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« on: July 01, 2023, 03:32:52 AM »
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2023, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September minimums have been:
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2023, 11:19:45 PM »
I'm keeping my 4.0-4.5 vote from last month.
Thanks to Juan for making these polls.
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Paul

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2023, 12:15:51 AM »
I'm also sticking with my vote from last month(4.25-4.75) and would estimate extent finishing between 2017/2018 and 2021 figures.
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nadir

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2023, 02:04:48 AM »
Keeping it under 4 million km2.
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Paddy

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2023, 12:48:45 PM »
Guessing at 4.0 to 4.5, which would be somewhere in the 4th to 10th lowest extents.
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The Walrus

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2023, 01:33:12 PM »
Quote from: Paul on July 02, 2023, 12:15:51 AM
I'm also sticking with my vote from last month(4.25-4.75) and would estimate extent finishing between 2017/2018 and 2021 figures.

Same here
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gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2023, 03:57:33 PM »
I'm still going for a late burst of melt despite the story so far. 3.75 to 4.25 milliom km2 for me.
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"I wasn't expecting that quite so soon" kiwichick16
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

HapHazard

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2023, 08:50:34 PM »
Quote from: gerontocrat on July 05, 2023, 03:57:33 PM
I'm still going for a late burst of melt despite the story so far. 3.75 to 4.25 milliom km2 for me.
That's what I voted, too. I think there's surprises in store. I've been watching those SST & 2mA temp charts all year...
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If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Killian

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2023, 01:43:59 AM »
My actual vote, not available in the poll is:

Scenario I
Weather till low is the sort of good ice retention weather we've seen most years since 2012:

4.25+/- 150k

Scenario II
Weather till low has some higher insolation, average cyclonic activity, some periods of high export via Fram due to wind direction:

4.1 +/- 150k

Scenario III
Weather till low 2012ish:

4.0 +100k/ -250k


Prediction: Due to El Nino (surely some of you remember my theory, supported in 2021 by Scripps' "heat bomb" paper), 2024 will be a near-new low, i.e. less than 4 million km sq.

Ladies, gentlemen, et al., welcome to a major climate tipping point.
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kiwichick16

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2023, 02:20:51 AM »
3.5 - 4.0 ...... kc
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Stephan

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2023, 06:04:46 PM »
I kept with my June Poll value (3.75-4.25 M km² bin)
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It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Chuck

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2023, 06:57:37 AM »
The poll is closed now but I would have gone with 4.25-4.75. The average loss from here would give us a minimum of around 4.7 million km2 meaning well above average melt is needed to go below 4.25 million km2 which seems unlikely given PIOMAS being 12th lowest on record and area being 10th lowest. Additionally relative to recent years temps have been fairly cool this year.
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oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2023, 05:47:33 PM »
With the minimum at 4.135 Mkm2 on Sep 16th, 18 out of 35 July voters got it right, a good result.
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