NSDIC Sea Ice Area Winter Maximum

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Hopefully someone will provide historical data though with current sea ice area more than 1,500,000 km2 below previous lows I do not know useful it will be.

[oren]

Thanks for starting the poll.
Historical data of sorts can be found in Gero's table shown here, in the column "maximum area that year".
I voted for 13-13.5, one whole million below the previous record, and still feels like a serious overestimate.
Gero's current projection is at 12-12.5.

[interstitial]

I figured a little worse than average from here to the end resulting in my 11.5-12 guess despite how shocking even a 12-12.5 result would be. I also included a short time to decide since late August is not that far away. I might add some days if people think that is a good idea.

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here is Gerontocrat's graph which I found so shocking. Notice it is more than 1.5 million below previous low.

[gerontocrat]

Hopefully someone will provide historical data though with current sea ice area more than 1,500,000 km2 below previous lows I do not know useful it will be.

Here is some historical data, though as you say recent events cast doubt as to their usefulness except to show the massive change this year.

I attach the table of previous years' maxima with variations from this years projected maximum, and a graph of the same.

I also attach a graph of the plume of projections from the last 10 years of sea ice dains from now to maximum. The range is large.

click and then click maximise for best view of the table.

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so plumes show 11.3-12.8 range thanks Gerontocrat.

[Sublime_Rime]

I voted for 13.5-14

While I think this year will set a new record, I think the sea ice gains will increase dramatically over the next few weeks. That extra open sea is releasing a lot of heat and the temp anomalies are forecast to drop to near normal levels in the next week (averaged across the whole Antarctic).

I don't think anything remotely near the current level of anomaly will hold all the way until the maximum is reached, though decreased albedo once insolation increases will keep us below the previous record.

[kiwichick16]

@  sublime_rime ...... good luck with that

https://ecco-group.org/ohc.htm

[kiwichick16]

the oceans absorbed about 10 zettajoules more heat in 2022 than 2021  ..... approximately the equivalent of every person on earth using 40 hairdryers 24/7 every day of the year.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/11/oceans-were-the-hottest-ever-recorded-in-2022-analysis-shows

[Sublime_Rime]

@  sublime_rime ...... good luck with that

https://ecco-group.org/ohc.htm

The upper 200m heat distribution map from this link you cited actually shows relatively little change around Antarctica, though I suspect this is partially due to the sea ice and polar temperatures itself dampening it at the surface. Given the sea ice anomalies we've been seeing, I don't doubt in the slightest that there is plenty of extra OHC playing a role, but not having ice to prevent its escape to the cold polar night is a major dampening feedback that shouldn't be discounted (waves hands to bolster argument)   

Don't get me wrong, something weird is definitely going on, and I don't pretend to know what that is or how it will continue. This large anomaly has persisted far longer than I suspected. Yet there are signs that it may be past its peak, and as there is still 6-8 weeks before significant insolation reaches the outer periphery of the sea ice extent, I doubt that such large anomalies will last much longer. There have been very high heat anomalies these past 2-3 weeks that are now rapidly lessening.

[kiwichick16]

@  sublime_rime.... this at least part of the problem

https://theconversation.com/antarctic-alarm-bells-observations-reveal-deep-ocean-currents-are-slowing-earlier-than-predicted-206289

[Stephan]

I went for the 12.5-13 M km² bin, knowing this is a guess not a forecast, as things are so different this season.

[interstitial]

I was expecting a jump back to closer to normal early on but the longer it does not happen the more I fear it will not occur.

[kassy]

I went for the 12.5-13 M km² bin, knowing this is a guess not a forecast, as things are so different this season.

That was one of my candidates so i voted for bin below that (12-12,5).

I don´t think there will be strong recovery and the max date might be early but it is very much a guess.

[interstitial]

The current gap between previous lowest and current if maintained would land the maximum in the 12-12.5 bin. My guess is still 11.5-12 but I am wondering if that is to low.

[gerontocrat]

With the poll due to close tomorrow here is some (confusing?) data.

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.56 million km2, 1.60 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2.

83% of sea ice area gains have been done and the Austral winter solstice was nearly 4 weeks ago

But Nico Sun's graph shows high and accelerating daily sea ice area gains in the last few days. Daily gains in the last 2 or three days have been more than double the average. A blip or a trend?

Remaining sea ice area gains in the the last 10 years give a range of the maximum of between 11.80 and 13.27 million km2. (Graph attached). Not much help.

I also have posted graphs and data on the Antarctic regions on the Antarctic extent and Area thread.

In the end I have plumped with little confidence for some recovery in Antarctic sea ice, i.e. 13.25 million km2 +/- 0.25 million km2.

ps: I actually wanted to choose 13.00 +/- 0.25 million km2 but the poll wouldn't lete me. Boo-hoo

[interstitial]

Gerontocrat for all of your data you get what you want. 12.75-13.25 million km2

[kassy]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,006,432 KM2 as at 22-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 3k, 72 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 75k,

snip

Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.90 million km2, 1.26 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

So the *worrying* gains have let of. Since i am betting that current refreeze will be below the average that will move things towards my bin but there is still a while to go and if it is to low numbers will slip into interstitials choice.

Will the current setup of the season also provide an early end to the refreeze?

[interstitial]

If the poll was still open I would move my vote to the 12.5-13 million bracket. That is still incredibly low.

[interstitial]

The value is over 11 million so one vote is already out.

[sqwazw]

The value is over 11 million so one vote is already out.

I read the table wrong, thought 11.24 was the end result for 2015 and voted a bracket lower. Then I saw the other votes. I'm an outlier, discard.

[interstitial]

It is safe to say 11.5 to 12 will not be the max so I will be out soon.

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It looks to me like 12.5-13 is where we are headed so the most people may be right.

[oren]

Amazingly, we haven't even hit 12M km2 yet. Still 157k to go, following today's loss. My >13M vote is already beyond the realm of possibility, but even the majority vote of >12.5M looks quite dubious.

[kassy]

I went for a lower value then that because i also expect the season to be shorter because so much ice is missing. Hopefully it is not too short.

[Sublime_Rime]

Likewise, I certainly succumbed to wishful thinking this round, and perhaps confusing trends I've seen in the Arctic with the Antarctic. As the effects of insolation become ever more likely, this may get even more interesting...

[kassy]

It is safe to say 11.5 to 12 will not be the max so I will be out soon.

Are you still sure about that? 

[gerontocrat]

It is safe to say 11.5 to 12 will not be the max so I will be out soon.

Are you still sure about that? 

The arithmetic projection from data to 12 Aug is for the max to be 12.65 million km2.
But the graphical projection come in at just over 12.3 million km2, being lower due to the timing of the maximum in each of the last 10 years.
This year has been !8?xx%&!! (incomprehensible) so the chance of a below 12 million km2 max is probably very low but it does exist.

Whatever happens, my vote is kaput as I assumed a modest pickup in freeze to maximum.
I hang my head in shame

[kassy]

It is an entirely normal expectation so don´t feel bad about it. 2023 has been very interesting year so far in many metrics. If it was only your vote that was kaput then we should crack open a cold beer, or a room temperature ale and toast on that.

[gerontocrat]

It is safe to say 11.5 to 12 will not be the max so I will be out soon.

Are you still sure about that? 

Sorry, Interstitial.

The one-day data says you are out (unless large drops in the next 2-3 days stops the 5-day average reaching 12 million)

[interstitial]

I have been expecting to be out for a while. I am just surprised it did not happen sooner. My only question is does it make it above 12.5 or not. I think it will but I expect it to be close.

[oren]

Now it's official, the 5-day average data is at 12.138 million, taking out the two 11.5-12 voters, and putting 3 other voters in the spotlight. Can it get to 12.5? Stay tuned.

[oren]

5-day average is up to 12.350 million, and the 1-day data is at 12.429, I think a switch to >12.5 is now very probable.

[oren]

At 12.576 million, another bin left behind. 12.5-13 has 40% of the vote, so would be a good place to stop. But who knows, maybe my 13-13.5 bet could yet carry the day?

[John_the_Younger]

As I am always overly pessimistic about ice growth, I'm sure it'll get to 13,000, as I voted for the 'current' bin. (I was so surprised when I realized I had voted with the masses.)

[interstitial]

Even my late predictions on ice growth are crap.

[oren]

Surprisingly we are already at area of 12.979 M km2, so my bet is practically in the money. This assumes of course that this year doesn't skip yet another bin and goes above 13.5 M.

[Sublime_Rime]

I was admittedly wrong about when the catch-up would occur, but in magnitude, my guess of around 13.5M might not have been too far off. The one day area is already quite a bit over 13M...

[oren]

With 13.05, another one of my votes is (temporarily?) right. Weird year 

[gerontocrat]

I wanted to vote 12/75 to 13.25 million km2, but the poll the categories made me plump for 13 to 13.5 million km2, otherwise my vote would be kaput.

But blimey, how high can it go?

[Sublime_Rime]

But blimey, how high can it go?

Higher...

[Phil.]

But blimey, how high can it go?

Higher...

Maybe not...
https://drive.google.com/uc?id=0B1HTR0ONiUmEN3JvZXVYNGpFVDA&export=download

[oren]

13.372 is the provisional maximum so far, which I expect to be the actual maximum when the dust settles.

[oren]

5 out of 20 voters got the right bin.
This one was very difficult to predict and a real nail-biter.

[kassy]

It was fun. Lets do it again next year. Not sure where we will start from but we will see.

[interstitial]

I got carried away with how low it was early on but it still ended up a record low by a significant margin.

[kiwichick16]

thankfully it didn't max out in early August .....but still not looking great at the moment .

Everything is pointing towards a record low minimum in February/ March 2024 and a substantially larger area of open water absorbing energy