Emerging trends in global freshwater availability

[Sigmetnow]

Newly analyzed data from groundwater-detecting satellites reveals a clear human fingerprint on the global water cycle.

“We are very literally seeing all of the hotspots for climate change, for changing extremes of flooding and drought, and for the impact of human water management….”

Article:

The map offers a powerful first glimpse of what climate change and over-exploitation of water resources looks like — a “global pattern of freshwater redistribution, due to climate change,” according to Famiglietti. It’s stark, visual evidence that the way humans use water is unsustainable.
...
The study’s authors took 14 years of data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which measures minute fluctuations in the Earth’s gravitational field as water moves around the planet. They then tried to track down the root causes of the biggest changes they found — an analysis that took eight years to complete. In two-thirds of the cases, the researchers discovered a direct link to human activity. And in some of those, especially in remote regions of southern Africa and China, the colossal scale of the shifts was previously unknown.

https://grist.org/article/global-water-resources-in-jeopardy-according-to-groundbreaking-new-study/


The study:
Emerging trends in global freshwater availability

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002–2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world’s water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0123-1


The next generation of GRACE satellites, now scheduled for launching next Tuesday, May 22, should provide additional evidence of exactly how humans are altering the planet’s water cycle, and with more accuracy.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/05/16/new-target-dates-set-for-next-two-falcon-9-launches/

[Archimid]

wow. I haven't read the article but it looks fascinating, this looks like a must read. 2 things that jumped at me when I read Sigmetnow outstanding summary:

1. 

The study’s authors took 14 years of data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which measures minute fluctuations in the Earth’s gravitational field as water moves around the planet.

This is an amazing measurement. The science and technology that needs to be accumulated and applied to measure the "splashing" of the Earth's water using gravity is just incredible. I'm convinced we have the science and the people to stop climate change. It can be done.

2.

The next generation of GRACE satellites, now scheduled for launching next Tuesday, May 22, should provide additional evidence of exactly how humans are altering the planet’s water cycle, and with more accuracy.

I know many will be uncomfortable with me saying this because having heroes is not cool but I want to point out that Falcon 9 is taking these amazing machines to space. Godspeed Falcon 9 carrying the next generation GRACE satellites.

[ghoti]

Note the area of trending wetter marked 27 on the map. Just happens to be the area a frequent poster in the forum claimed  was greening because of increased CO2 (despite no where else in the world greening in the same CO2 environment).

[bligh8]

Scientists map huge undersea fresh-water aquifer off US Northeast
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-scientists-huge-undersea-fresh-water-aquifer.html


"In a new survey of the sub-seafloor off the U.S. Northeast coast, scientists have made a surprising discovery: a gigantic aquifer of relatively fresh water trapped in porous sediments lying below the salty ocean. It appears to be the largest such formation yet found in the world."

"The water probably got under the seabed in one of two different ways, say the researchers. Some 15,000 to 20,000 years ago, toward the end of the last glacial age, much of the world's water was locked up in mile-deep ice; in North America, it extended through what is now northern New Jersey, Long Island and the New England coast. Sea levels were much lower, exposing much of what is now the underwater U.S. continental shelf. When the ice melted, sediments formed huge river deltas on top of the shelf, and fresh water got trapped there in scattered pockets. Later, sea levels rose. Up to now, the trapping of such "fossil" water has been the common explanation for any fresh water found under the ocean."

More within the article

bligh

[gerontocrat]

The GRACE satellites did a lot more than look at the ice sheets. Here is a note from NASA's JPL - https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4626 from way back in 2015

Study: Third of Big Groundwater Basins in Distress

Extract

Groundwater storage trends for Earth's 37 largest aquifers from UCI-led study using NASA GRACE data (2003 - 2013).  About one third of Earth's largest groundwater basins are being rapidly depleted by human consumption, despite having little accurate data about how much water remains in them, according to two new studies led by the University of California, Irvine (UCI),

This means that significant segments of Earth's population are consuming groundwater quickly without knowing when it might run out, the researchers conclude. The findings are published today in Water Resources Research.

"Available physical and chemical measurements are simply insufficient," said UCI professor and principal investigator Jay Famiglietti, who is also the senior water scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "Given how quickly we are consuming the world's groundwater reserves, we need a coordinated global effort to determine how much is left."

The studies are the first to comprehensively characterize global groundwater losses with data from space, using readings generated by NASA's twin GRACE satellites. ...researchers found that 13 of the planet's 37 largest aquifers studied between 2003 and 2013 were being depleted while receiving little to no recharge.

Eight were classified as "overstressed," with nearly no natural replenishment to offset usage. Another five were found to be "extremely" or "highly" stressed, depending upon the level of replenishment in each. Those aquifers were still being depleted but had some water flowing back into them.

The most overburdened aquifers are in the world's driest areas, where populations draw heavily on underground water. Climate change and population growth are expected to intensify the problem.

The Arabian Aquifer System, an important water source for more than 60 million people, is the most overstressed in the world.

The Indus Basin aquifer of northwestern India and Pakistan is the second-most overstressed, and the Murzuk-Djado Basin in northern Africa is third. California's Central Valley, used heavily for agriculture and suffering rapid depletion, was slightly better off, but was still labeled highly stressed in the first study.

"As we're seeing in California right now, we rely much more heavily on groundwater during drought," said Famiglietti. "When examining the sustainability of a region's water resources, we absolutely must account for that dependence."

4 years later - the Guardian picks up the Saudi story. (see next post)

[gerontocrat]

Saudi Arabia.

Forget Peak Oil, forget peak gas. Think Peak Water.

Oil built Saudi Arabia – will a lack of water destroy it?

Berain water factory in Riyadh....tanks emit a low hum as water brought in from precious underground aquifers passes through a six-stage purification process before bottling.
“In Saudi Arabia there are only two sources of water: the sea and deep wells,” says Ahmed Safar Al Asmari, who manages one of Berain’s two factories in Riyadh. “We’re in the central region, so there are only deep wells here.”

Perhaps not surprising for someone who makes a living selling water, Asmari professes to be untroubled about the future of Saudi Arabia’s water supply. “Studies show water in some reserves can stand consumption for another 150 years,” he says. “In Saudi Arabia, we have many reserves – we have no problems in this area.”

His confident predictions are out of sync with the facts. One Saudi groundwater expert at King Faisal University predicted in 2016 that the kingdom only had another 13 years’ worth of groundwater reserves left.

“Groundwater resources of Saudi Arabia are being depleted at a very fast rate,” declared the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation as far back as 2008. “Most water withdrawn comes from fossil deep aquifers, and some predictions suggest that these resources may not last more than about 25 years.”

In a country that rarely sees rain, the habit of draining groundwater, like the Berain factory does, could prove perilous: groundwater makes up an estimated 98% of naturally occurring fresh water in Saudi Arabia.

Indeed, oil may have built the modern Saudi state, but a lack of water could destroy it if drastic solutions aren’t found soon.

The emergency seems invisible in Riyadh, which is undergoing a construction boom as more buildings creep upwards to join a collection of towering skyscrapers.

It’s the desert. Obviously water is a natural constraint
Dr Rebecca Keller

Although everyone knows this city in the desert owes its existence to the discovery of oil in 1938, fewer realise water was just as important. **Decades of efforts to make the desert bloom to feed the city’s population have resulted in agricultural projects to grow water-intensive crops such as wheat, on farmland meted out to figures favoured by the royal family.

While many question the accuracy of the kingdom’s optimistic estimates of its own oil reserves, the looming threat of a lack of water could prove to be an even bigger problem. Saudi Arabia consumes double the world average of water per person, 263 litres per capita each day and rising, amid a changing climate that will strain water reserves.

**Unsustainable agriculture -like this is news?
https://www.soas.ac.uk/water/publications/papers/file38391.pdf

Camels Don’t Fly, Deserts Don’t Bloom:
an Assessment of Saudi Arabia’s Experiment in Desert Agriculture
by Elie Elhadj
SOAS/KCL Water Research Group Occasional Paper No 48
School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)/King’s College London
University of London
May 2004

This short history of Saudi agriculture shows that Saudi Arabia’s foray into cereals production is a case of unsustainable development. Within one decade, a desert was made into a major world producer of wheat. Four years later, a precipitous decline of 70% followed. The retrenchment, however, did not reduce irrigation water use commensurately. The government did not ban the exports of alfalfa, meat, fruits and vegetables. This experiment simply showed that a combination of money and water could make even a desert bloom, until either the money or the water runs out.

[philopek]

Saudi Arabia.

Forget Peak Oil, forget peak gas. Think Peak Water.

Oil built Saudi Arabia – will a lack of water destroy it?

Berain water factory in Riyadh....tanks emit a low hum as water brought in from precious underground aquifers passes through a six-stage purification process before bottling.
“In Saudi Arabia there are only two sources of water: the sea and deep wells,” says Ahmed Safar Al Asmari, who manages one of Berain’s two factories in Riyadh. “We’re in the central region, so there are only deep wells here.”

Perhaps not surprising for someone who makes a living selling water, Asmari professes to be untroubled about the future of Saudi Arabia’s water supply. “Studies show water in some reserves can stand consumption for another 150 years,” he says. “In Saudi Arabia, we have many reserves – we have no problems in this area.”

His confident predictions are out of sync with the facts. One Saudi groundwater expert at King Faisal University predicted in 2016 that the kingdom only had another 13 years’ worth of groundwater reserves left.

“Groundwater resources of Saudi Arabia are being depleted at a very fast rate,” declared the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation as far back as 2008. “Most water withdrawn comes from fossil deep aquifers, and some predictions suggest that these resources may not last more than about 25 years.”

In a country that rarely sees rain, the habit of draining groundwater, like the Berain factory does, could prove perilous: groundwater makes up an estimated 98% of naturally occurring fresh water in Saudi Arabia.

Indeed, oil may have built the modern Saudi state, but a lack of water could destroy it if drastic solutions aren’t found soon.

The emergency seems invisible in Riyadh, which is undergoing a construction boom as more buildings creep upwards to join a collection of towering skyscrapers.

It’s the desert. Obviously water is a natural constraint
Dr Rebecca Keller

Although everyone knows this city in the desert owes its existence to the discovery of oil in 1938, fewer realise water was just as important. **Decades of efforts to make the desert bloom to feed the city’s population have resulted in agricultural projects to grow water-intensive crops such as wheat, on farmland meted out to figures favoured by the royal family.

While many question the accuracy of the kingdom’s optimistic estimates of its own oil reserves, the looming threat of a lack of water could prove to be an even bigger problem. Saudi Arabia consumes double the world average of water per person, 263 litres per capita each day and rising, amid a changing climate that will strain water reserves.

**Unsustainable agriculture -like this is news?
https://www.soas.ac.uk/water/publications/papers/file38391.pdf

Camels Don’t Fly, Deserts Don’t Bloom:
an Assessment of Saudi Arabia’s Experiment in Desert Agriculture
by Elie Elhadj
SOAS/KCL Water Research Group Occasional Paper No 48
School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)/King’s College London
University of London
May 2004

This short history of Saudi agriculture shows that Saudi Arabia’s foray into cereals production is a case of unsustainable development. Within one decade, a desert was made into a major world producer of wheat. Four years later, a precipitous decline of 70% followed. The retrenchment, however, did not reduce irrigation water use commensurately. The government did not ban the exports of alfalfa, meat, fruits and vegetables. This experiment simply showed that a combination of money and water could make even a desert bloom, until either the money or the water runs out.

They can easily use PV and Wind Power to desalinate sea-water on big scale.

[DrTskoul]

Sure they can and other countries will foqllow. Only problem: now you have to replace current electricity use to renewables, build renewables for future planes demand increase _and_ for desalination because we were greedy and wasteful.. not an easy task even with "Manhattan project" commitment.

[DrTskoul]

From the same article:

Desalinated water, as distinct from naturally occurring fresh water, makes up 50% of water consumed in Saudi Arabia. The remaining 50% is pulled from groundwater.

About 500MW electricity needed for that water production not counting transport from the sea ( ~ 3.8 million m³/day )

[philopek]

Sure they can and other countries will foqllow. Only problem: now you have to replace current electricity use to renewables, build renewables for future planes demand increase _and_ for desalination because we were greedy and wasteful.. not an easy task even with "Manhattan project" commitment.

Absolutely, the infrastructure needed for them to desalinate sea-water on large scale would be a double edged sword in the good way. BTW very salty water can serve as kind of energy storage, perhaps not the most efficient but as a by-product ?

Ok, when it comes to such things i'm not sufficiently knowledgeable to make useful statements, just meant as an idea for synergetic appliances and use of infrastructures already in place for a main purpose.

Also once i had the idea that they could "tunnel" or better "cover" roads in the desert with solar pannels (shadow) that would save energy in the cars due to reduced need for air-conditioning.

etc. etc.

[petm]

We can't even get our act together enough to dig wells for poor people. Do you really think someone will build and pay to operate desalination facilities for them? Saudi Arabia, yes, they're rich (although they will soon have a serious problem with temperature). But that's an exception.

https://www.thirstproject.org/water-crisis/

[gerontocrat]

Quote from philopek

They can easily use PV and Wind Power to desalinate sea-water on big scale.

Nope.

Saudi Arabia is a big place.
Not everybody lives on the coast.
Water is heavy, needs a lot of energy to lift it uphill and over large distances. Saudi Arabia average height above sea level is a bit more than 650 metres , Riyadh (pop 6 million) in the centre of the country is at 600 metres, about 400 hundred kilometres from the Gulf and more like 800 kms from the Red Sea.
Agriculture needs a lot more water than for domestic, commercial and industrial use. In Saudi, NASA says 80% of water goes to agriculture.

In 2006 rainfall (i.e. new freshwater) less than 10% of water consumption. In 2006 annual deficit at least 20 KM3, i.e. 20,000 million tons. I expect the 50% of water consumption (for everything including irrigation?) now supplied from desalination plants is for coastal cities.

I am not sure any medium sized or large country has a Water National Grid, certainly not one shoving that amount of water around. Damned expensive to build - probably a lot more than building a National Electricity Grid.

________________________________________________________
The Guardian said:
50% of water consumption now supplied from desalination plants?

A 2011 statistic said 1.2 billion m3 produced by desalination.
A recent Saudi Govt press release said 5 million cubic metres per day achieved, i.e. just over 1.8 billion cu (2 km3 /GT) per annum.
And new plants to add 0.24 million cu m per day - .e.getting the total to just over 1.9 GT
I expect the 50% of water consumption quoted now supplied from desalination plants is for domestic, commercial and industrial use by the coastal cities, not for agriculture.

So Saudis annual water deficit is probably still in excess of 20,000 million tons per annum.
______________________________________________________________

And  water is something I do still know about (Karachi, Dhaka, Kolkata, Visakhapatnam, Orissa, Jordan) and the story never changes.

[gerontocrat]

From the same article:

Desalinated water, as distinct from naturally occurring fresh water, makes up 50% of water consumed in Saudi Arabia. The remaining 50% is pulled from groundwater.

About 500MW electricity needed for that water production not counting transport from the sea ( ~ 3.8 million m³/day )

That 50 % is 50% of domestic consumption only. The guardian got it wrong.

[philopek]

Quote from philopek

They can easily use PV and Wind Power to desalinate sea-water on big scale.

Nope.

Saudi Arabia is a big place.
Not everybody lives on the coast.
Water is heavy, needs a lot of energy to lift it uphill and over large distances. Saudi Arabia average height above sea level is a bit more than 650 metres , Riyadh (pop 6 million) in the centre of the country is at 600 metres, about 400 hundred kilometres from the Gulf and more like 800 kms from the Red Sea.
Agriculture needs a lot more water than for domestic, commercial and industrial use. In Saudi, NASA says 80% of water goes to agriculture.

In 2006 rainfall (i.e. new freshwater) less than 10% of water consumption. In 2006 annual deficit at least 20 KM3, i.e. 20,000 million tons. I expect the 50% of water consumption (for everything including irrigation?) now supplied from desalination plants is for coastal cities.

I am not sure any medium sized or large country has a Water National Grid, certainly not one shoving that amount of water around. Damned expensive to build - probably a lot more than building a National Electricity Grid.

________________________________________________________
The Guardian said:
50% of water consumption now supplied from desalination plants?

A 2011 statistic said 1.2 billion m3 produced by desalination.
A recent Saudi Govt press release said 5 million cubic metres per day achieved, i.e. just over 1.8 billion cu (2 km3 /GT) per annum.
And new plants to add 0.24 million cu m per day - .e.getting the total to just over 1.9 GT
I expect the 50% of water consumption quoted now supplied from desalination plants is for domestic, commercial and industrial use by the coastal cities, not for agriculture.

So Saudis annual water deficit is probably still in excess of 20,000 million tons per annum.
______________________________________________________________

And  water is something I do still know about (Karachi, Dhaka, Kolkata, Visakhapatnam, Orissa, Jordan) and the story never changes.

Either way, thanks for the great details and deeper insight, always good to know more and assume less.

On the topic:

I take back one single word, the word "simply" everything else stand, they can do it, the are doing it already and they can increase the percentage. there is so much wind and sun that no matter what it takes to pump and transport (with e-trucks if needed) it's feasible.

You should also take one word back, the word "nope" it's a yes but, not a know but  situation IMO.

Electricity can be transported from inland to the coast and water can be either pumped or driven from the coastal plants inland. As i said and confirming your point, it takes a huge amount of energy but if there is a "POPULATED" place on earth where PV and wind-power is available in abundance, it's the arabic peninsula and the adjacent regions.

[DrTskoul]

From the same article:

Desalinated water, as distinct from naturally occurring fresh water, makes up 50% of water consumed in Saudi Arabia. The remaining 50% is pulled from groundwater.

About 500MW electricity needed for that water production not counting transport from the sea ( ~ 3.8 million m³/day )

That 50 % is 50% of domestic consumption only. The guardian got it wrong.

 Thank you for the correction. Didn't have time this morning to research it..

Based on your table to desalinated all the current used water, you would need 10-12 GW excluding transportation. For comparison peak loads for electricity use were 24GW in 2001 (Wikepidia), projected to reach 60GW in 2023.

[nanning]

Saudi Arabia.

<snip>

They can easily use PV and Wind Power to desalinate sea-water on big scale.

And put enormous amounts of briny sludge into the seas. The seas are not renewable.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/sep/29/peak-salt-is-the-desalination-dream-over-for-the-gulf-states

[philopek]

Saudi Arabia.

<snip>

They can easily use PV and Wind Power to desalinate sea-water on big scale.

And put enormous amounts of briny sludge into the seas. The seas are not renewable.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/sep/29/peak-salt-is-the-desalination-dream-over-for-the-gulf-states

I doubt but can't prove it, that the amount of potable water needed by all mankind would significantly change anything in the oceans as a whole. If we compare the total amount of ocean water and compare it to the total amount of potable water mankind needs and considering that the water will rain and flow back into the ocean ultimately, this does not sound reasonable.

After all this is an article in a newspaper and they're mostly either pro or con something, rarely neutral and objective.

One scientist says something and they print it, two days later another scientist says something else and they print it. Especially when it serves as a good headline.

All what i just said i can't prove but would happily learn if someone has some deeper knowledge about the parameters in question.

What i could imagine that in a closed environment (see) like the Mediterranean this could be an issues but not in open says of significant size like i.e the Indian Ocean, Pacific or Atlantic Ocean.
Simply too much volume and we're not talking pumping poison back to the seas but only materials that were taken from it beforehand.

[gerontocrat]

Saudi Arabia.

<snip>

They can easily use PV and Wind Power to desalinate sea-water on big scale.

And put enormous amounts of briny sludge into the seas. The seas are not renewable.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/sep/29/peak-salt-is-the-desalination-dream-over-for-the-gulf-states

I doubt but can't prove it, that the amount of potable water needed by all mankind would significantly change anything in the oceans as a whole. If we compare the total amount of ocean water and compare it to the total amount of potable water mankind needs and considering that the water will rain and flow back into the ocean ultimately, this does not sound reasonable.

What i could imagine that in a closed environment (see) like the Mediterranean this could be an issues but not in open says of significant size like i.e the Indian Ocean, Pacific or Atlantic Ocean.
Simply too much volume and we're not talking pumping poison back to the seas but only materials that were taken from it beforehand.

Your first paragraph is totally correct, as is your second. But I was considering Saudi Arabia.

But the oceans are mostly a desert mostly devoid of life. Life abounds in certain places, coastal regions being one. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are using the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf for desalination. These are enclosed bodies of water already under environmental stress. Sea life likes salt, needs salt - up to a point, above which which it effectively becomes a poison.

Saudi Arabia already (2018 estimate?) produces around 30 million m3 of brine per day, but seems to have very inefficient plant (see below). Without improved efficiency, scaling that up to meet all water needs implies brine production up by around 10 times, i.e. to 300 million m3 per day, or 100 KM3 per annum. Even with the latest and best managed technology, that's 25 km3 per annum. And add the other gulf states to the problem....

It is very possible that brine could finish off a lot of life in those waters. It probably already is.

The end of life in the oceans? NO.
Yet another kick in the teeth to the web of life? YES
___________________________________________________________
I downloaded this a couple of months ago.

file:///C:/Users/AC1/Downloads/Qadiretall2019-Stateofdesalination.pdf
The state of desalination and brine production: A global outlook Marh 2019
Extract
Current global brine production stands at 141.5 million m3 /day, totaling 51.7 billion m3
/year This value is approximately 50% greater than the total volume of desalinated water produced globally.

Global brine production is concentrated in the Middle East and North Africa, which produces almost 100 million m3 /day of brine, accounting for 70.3% of global brine production. This value is approximately double the volume of desalinated water produced, indicating that desalination
plants in this region operate at an (very low) average water recovery ratio of 0.25.

Comparatively, all other regions produce substantially lower volumes of brine, with East Asia and Pacific (10.5%), Western Europe (5.9%) and North America (3.9%) having the next largest shares. Interestingly, these regions produce a substantially lower volume of brine than the amount of desalinated water they produce, indicating that recovery ratios are generally high. This is particularly apparent for North America, which produces a substantially lower volume of brine
than it does desalinated water, suggesting that desalination facilities operate at an average recovery ratio of 0.75.

In other geographical regions, brine production is approximately equivalent to desalinated water production (i.e. RR = 0.5).

As with desalinated water production, high income countries produce the vast majority of global brine (77.9%). It should be noted that ‘high income’ includes both countries from both highly developed world regions (e.g. North America, Western Europe), whose brine production tends to be smaller relative to the desalinated water production, and the oil-rich Gulf nations who typically employ thermal desalination technologies with low recovery ratios, hence high brine production. For example, Saudi Arabia alone produces 31.53 million m3 /day brine, accounting for 22.2% of the global share. The next three largest producers of brine are also oil-rich countries, with the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar having 20.2%, 6.6% and 5.8% shares in global brine production respectively. Together, these four nations produce 32% of global desalinated water and 55% of the total brine.

Comparatively, the USA produces 10.91 million m3 /day of desalinated water (11.4% global
share) but produces just 5.28 million m3 /day of brine (3.7% global share).

[gerontocrat]

Bloomberg News has picked up on water problems from https://www.wri.org/resources/maps/aqueduct-water-risk-atlas

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-countries-facing-water-crisis/?srnd=premium-europe
These Countries Are the Most at Risk From a Water Crisis
By Hannah Dormido
6 August 2019, 17:00

Nearly 1.8 billion people in seventeen countries, or a quarter of the world’s population, appear to be veering towards a water crisis—with the potential of severe shortages in the next few years.

Of the 17 nations, 12 are in the Middle East and North Africa, according to an analysis released on Tuesday by Washington D.C.-based World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas. Two countries–India and Pakistan­­–are in Asia. The remaining hotspots are San Marino in Europe, Botswana in Africa and Turkmenistan in Central Asia.

While the Middle East and North Africa region is hot and water supply can be low to begin with, rising demand has pushed countries into extreme stress, according to WRI. Qatar, the most at risk from water scarcity, depends heavily on seawater desalination systems to supply drinking water to people and industries.

The economic impact of severe water shortages came to the fore earlier this year in the south Indian city of Chennai, home to 7.1 million people. Heat waves and a monsoon delay in the summer months saw some of Chennai’s freshwater lakes dry up, triggering protests and violence, as well as business interruptions, with tech companies asking employees to work from home.