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Niall Dollard

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Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: August 31, 2023, 08:58:58 PM »
Might as well kick off the thread for this season.

Eastern coast of Baffin had a recent fall, right down to the coastline.

Not particularly unusual going by its climatology.

Makes for a small little upward bump on Nico Sun's snow extent chart (red line is America).
« Last Edit: August 31, 2023, 09:04:39 PM by Niall Dollard »

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2023, 08:11:43 PM »
Snowcover well below average in Asia & North America, though now quickly rising in Asia
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2023, 02:49:48 PM »
It is snowing....
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2023, 12:22:55 AM »
Overall October was poor for snow over most parts of USA and Canada (combined).

Nice chart here from Brian Brettschneider showing that it was the least snowy over the past 84 years. Particularly so over the latitudes between 50N and 60 N.

Some parts however were very snowy. Banks Island and eastern Beaufort saw their snowiest October.

This coincides very closely with the anomalously warm area on the NSIDC 925hPa temperature chart stretching over the western CAA.

Warmer air temperatures and open (non-frozen) Beaufort Sea all contributing to a snowy October there.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2023, 04:48:09 PM »

Warm it up and then throw a blanket over it when the sun isn't shining - seems like a great way to lose permafrost.

morganism

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2023, 10:15:41 PM »
(weatherwest/swain has a new post up. Good news for west coast US, bad news for that 50-60n band discussed above. AK may stay well above avg for snow cover. Siberia?)

Warm Thanksgiving ridge pattern will likely transition toward progressively wetter pattern around early Dec

(...)
A combination of MJO-related subseasonal forcing and strong El Nino-related seasonal forcing will likely cause the storm track over the North Pacific to increasingly favor California after an episode of strong/dry ridging over the next 7-10 days.

There are, however, growing signs of a larger scale and likely more sustained transition toward a wetter, more active pattern by early to mid December. Long-range traditional weather ensembles are suggesting that this trend will first begin to emerge around 10 days from now, and subseasonal ensembles are currently suggesting a continued escalation of this wetter pattern through December as the broader setup becomes increasingly favorable for the “storm door” to open on a more consistent basis.

In the short term, this possible emergence of a wetter pattern may be partly linked to the eastward progression of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) cycle that has the potential to “jump start” the transition. But as we head later into December and into January, I’d expect the seasonal-scale influence of an already quite strong and still strengthening El Niño event to emerge more strongly and to potentially become a major influence on California hydroclimate for most of the rest of the winter.

As I’ve noted many times in the past: when there is a substantial El Niño (EN) event, the atmospheric and oceanic “base state” usually doesn’t reach a point favorable for the Rossby wave perturbations generated by displaced tropical thunderstorm activity (deep convection) to substantially or consistently alter the jet stream over the North Pacific until mid-winter–usually late Dec or Jan. This is why there’s a pretty weak correlation between even strong EN events and autumn precipitation across most of California–it’s just too early in the season. But this year, it looks like subseasonal forcing (from the MJO) will potentially accelerate that process just prior to the time of year when EN-related seasonal influences might be getting their act together.

What does all of this mean, in practical terms? As always, both the MJO and EN offer a tilt in the odds toward certain outcomes rather than a guarantee of any particular conditions in California. But at this time, it does seem that things are lining up for the pattern to become progressively more active and wetter in California starting around early to mid December–and seasonal predictions continue to hint at a relatively high likelihood of wetter than average conditions then persisting through the rest of winter for at least central and southern CA, and perhaps parts of NorCal as well.


Eastern tropical Pacific approaches “Super El Niño ” territory as warming continues
(more)

https://weatherwest.com/archives/33007


edit: Was a huge snow event in Siberia 4 days ago, but since the Siberian Times hasn't updated/published anything since Covid19 innoculations there in 2020, there is very little news coming out of the area. Was more fires there in 2021/22 than in all the rest of the world combined. No info if still zombie tundra in 2023, but we have seen lots of the fire observation drones, and some of the fire airplanes used in the mil operation in UA.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2023, 10:30:19 PM by morganism »

morganism

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2023, 07:46:31 AM »
(ddn't see this posted elsewhere, but the vegetation index around Hudson Bay is intriguing. Is possibly slowing re-freeze there?)

2023 Arctic Report Card: image highlights

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2023-arctic-report-card-image-highlights

(...)
The annual Arctic Report Card, now in its 18th year, is the work of 82 authors from 13 countries. It includes a section titled Vital Signs, that updates eight measures of physical and biological changes, four chapters on emerging issues and a special report on the 2023 summer of extreme wildfires. Below are some image-based highlights from this year's report.


https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/
« Last Edit: December 15, 2023, 07:59:52 AM by morganism »

grixm

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #7 on: December 25, 2023, 09:29:24 AM »
Snow cover in North America is extremely low. Record for this date?

kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #8 on: December 25, 2023, 10:12:44 PM »
There does not seem to be that much in Siberia either.
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HapHazard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #9 on: December 25, 2023, 10:21:30 PM »
Barely a dusting here (middle of BC, 1200m alt., very rural area). Been living here for over a dozen years now, never seen less than 2 feet on the ground by xmas. It's been dry & mild.
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2023, 02:07:20 AM »
Your reports got me to look outside and, low and behold, there is no snow on the ground outside here in North Florida either.  But I did see some white camellia blossoms, and once they fall, there will be Florida snowballs to toss at each other.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2023, 03:05:36 PM »
2023 ends the year with an astounding negative snowcover anomaly in the northern hemisphere. -5.056 million km^2 as of 12/31/2023 according to cryospherecomputing.com.  I don't think I have ever seen the snow anomaly breach the -5 million km^2 level before.  Of course, snow comes and goes quickly.  Still strange, though.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2024, 03:24:28 PM »
Still strange, though.

Hottest year evah*!

(* In the satellite era)

N.B. For additional context see also:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,578.msg390972.html#msg390972
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be cause

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be cause

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2024, 01:09:01 AM »
yet ...

https://nrt.cryospherecomputing.com/Snow_Cover_Data/NOAA_Snowmap_anomaly.png

  .. the NH multi-million km snow shortage has been buried in the white stuff
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2024, 03:55:22 PM »
Snowcover extent pretty much at maximum, and after all the ups and downs ends up almost dead on average.

BUT, I wonder what the Snow mass (water equivalent) is and how quickly the snow will melt.
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2024, 08:43:11 PM »
Interesting, I can attest that it is highly overcounting the cover in the northeast US. I live up in Albany, NY and we have had no snow-cover for at least 2 days, not to mention down in NJ where they barely had snow sticking at any point (parents live there).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2024, 03:23:09 PM »
The chances of an early fast snowmelt increased over the last couple of days....
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grixm

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2024, 09:09:35 PM »
Very low North America snow cover for the date.

HapHazard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2024, 10:04:56 PM »
Anecdotal: I'm in central BC, rural, altitude roughly 1300m. Every winter here thus far for the last dozen-ish years, the snow has been up to my knees by now.

Currently, I'm wondering if I should go mow the lawn.
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2024, 11:17:35 PM »
I understand Canadians routinely mow their lawns when there is less than 10 cm of snow.  It was a Québécois (Arthur Sicard) who invented the snowblower; obviously he was watching his neighbors.
[OK, only some of this is true.]

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2024, 05:17:16 PM »
After all the ups and downs currently overall snowcover is close to the 1990-2019 average, though it looks like warm air might be hitting higher latitudes in the next few days.

Will we get an early snowmelt?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2024, 06:46:50 PM »
Northern Hemisphere snowcover is just over 7% below the 2000-2019 average, and below average in all 3 regions, Asia, Europe & N America

Early melt?
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kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2024, 02:51:22 PM »
Seems likely after last year.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2024, 03:29:39 PM »
Seems likely after last year.
Whereupon snowcover by on this day 10% less than the 2019-2000 average, compared with just over 7% the day before, with all 3 regions seeing a rapid snowcover loss.
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2024, 04:39:15 PM »
Last year was already a very early snow melt for most of North America (aside from Alaska), and it led to the worst CAA meltout since 2012.  This year's snow melt is looking even more extreme for North America.  And last year the Asia melt was a bit mediocre, but we might also see a strong melt in Asia too. 

From following snow melt over the years, it has become apparent to me that mid-April is about when snow melt becomes meaningful in the sense that negative anomalies start to become self-reinforcing and locked-in.  Before this point, it is not uncommon for cold fronts to sweep all the way down into the US and dump a bunch of positive snow anomalies and cause the snow anomaly to swing from -3 mil km^2 to +3 mil km^2 overnight.  But the window on that sort of weather is closing.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2024, 07:04:13 PM »
Uh oh! >3M km2 anomaly...does not bode well for Canadian Wildfire season (ie zombie fires from last year), as well as Northern Hemisphere albedo and EEI as insolation increases.
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The Walrus

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2024, 08:51:15 PM »
Fear not.  April snows are headed for California this weekend, and the Colorado mountains, and the Canadian Rockies.  We may see that big swing in snow anomaly change next week that Comradez mentioned.

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/usandcanada/post/35777

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2024, 11:28:24 PM »
Fear not.  April snows are headed for California this weekend, and the Colorado mountains, and the Canadian Rockies.  We may see that big swing in snow anomaly change next week that Comradez mentioned.

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/usandcanada/post/35777
Most snowcover in North America at this time of year is at lower altitudes and by now more about Canada than the USA - it's geography/topography. Snow in the mountains of the USA (& Canada?) is more about snow depth and the water reservoir it creates? In April fresh snowcover at lower altitudes is liable to disappear quickly? What did Groundhog say?

We will see the snowcover grow and then see how quickly it shrinks again. GFS precipitation as snow in North America looks very much on and off in the next 10 days.
see
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=gfs&dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=prcp-mslp-gph500
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #29 on: April 14, 2024, 01:23:32 AM »
Yes gero. The snowfall we get out here now (Canadian Rockies, where I live) is literally just icing on the cake, this time of year. Higher elevation, helping add to water reservoirs & extending the ski season at some resorts. I doubt that snow here at my elevation, let alone in California, in April has much of an effect on Arctic sea ice. I was out hiking today in the snow on our property; in the valley below, the grow season is well under way.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #30 on: April 15, 2024, 05:43:11 PM »
Northern Hemisphere snowcover is now 10.9% below the 2000-2019 average, and below average in all 3 regions, Asia, Europe & N America.

But surprises can always happen.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2024, 04:56:47 AM »
air temps don't look like they are cooperating for surprises

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=nh

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #32 on: May 28, 2024, 11:25:01 PM »
https://cryospherecomputing.com/ from Nico Sun

With approaching 3/4 of the snow melting season over, overall melt has been average. Only in North America have we seen a consistently below average snowcover - since the beginning of April.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #33 on: June 11, 2024, 07:46:40 PM »
A very average end to the snowmelt season (at the moment)
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-2024 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #34 on: July 09, 2024, 11:22:22 AM »
Some late season snowfall is expected over the Chukotka region of eastern Russia. Beginning on Wed 10th, the snow is expected to accumulate (especially over the higher ground) for a couple of days. The attached image is the predicted snow depths on Friday.