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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #350 on: October 12, 2024, 11:55:36 AM »
Damage assessment and climate change impact for Milton

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/without-climate-change-hurricane-milton-would-have-hit-as-a-cat-2-not-a-cat-3/

Quote
Without climate change, Hurricane Milton would have hit Florida as a Cat 2 storm, not a Cat 3, according to the conclusions of a study by World Weather Attribution, an international scientific group. The group issued the study on October 11, just two days after Milton hit. A separate study on Hurricane Milton released the same day by researchers at the Imperial College of London found that this increase in intensity made Milton nearly twice as destructive.

Quote
World Weather Attribution’s analysis found that storms with Milton’s wind speeds have become approximately 40% more frequent and the winds associated with storms of similar rarity have become nearly 11 mph (5 m/s) higher (an increase of about 10%) because of the 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3°F) of global warming since preindustrial times. Thus, without climate change, Milton would have hit Florida as a Cat 2 with 110 mph winds instead of a Cat 3 with 120 mph winds.

Quote
Although a 10% increase in hurricane winds because of climate change may not seem like a big deal, it is a big deal because hurricane damage increases exponentially with wind speed. For example, according to NOAA, a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph (161 kph) winds will do 10 times the damage of a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph (121 kph) winds. This includes damage not only from winds but also from storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes. Bottom line: A 10% increase in winds yields about a doubling in hurricane damage

Quote
Researchers at the Imperial College of London separately determined that climate change increased Helene’s wind speeds at landfall by about 13 mph or 11%, and Milton’s by almost 11 mph or 10%. Using a previously published damage function and data on exposed value of global assets, the researchers determined that 44% of the economic damages caused by Helene and 45% of those caused by Milton could be attributed to climate change.

Quote
Hurricane Milton could cause $30-$50 billion in insured losses in Florida, according to  Fitch Ratings. Since total hurricane losses are typically about a factor of two larger than insured losses, Milton could cost about $60-$100 billion, potentially making it the fifth-costliest weather disaster in world history, behind Katrina, Harvey, Ian, and Maria.

What is the chance of Florida imposing a gas tax in order to raise the funds to pay for this?
Should hurricances be named after oil companies? Rename Katrina as Exxon, Harvey as BP, etc.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #351 on: October 12, 2024, 04:00:02 PM »
Helene Aftermath: Over 86% of surveyed health care providers are short on IV fluids
https://arstechnica.com/health/2024/10/over-86-of-surveyed-health-care-providers-are-short-on-iv-fluids/

Providers are starting to put off elective surgeries and other procedures.

Federal officials, meanwhile, are working with Baxter to help support increasing supplies, setting up temporary imports, and expediting consideration of any shelf-life extension requests.

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2024/10/09/letter-health-care-leaders-stakeholders-impacts-hurricane-helene-secretary-becerra.html

For now, though, "HHS is encouraging all providers and health systems, regardless of whether they have experienced a disruption in their supply, to take measures to conserve these critical products," the letter read. Some hospitals have already reported giving patients Gatorade and Pedialyte to conserve IV fluid supplies.

Related: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4153.msg411883.html#msg411883
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

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squilliam

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #352 on: October 13, 2024, 12:04:36 AM »
We were already experiencing delays/shortages with Baxter, as they are the local supplier here in New Zealand as well. I would expect that they are likely to divert some supplies from elsewhere, which will make supplies tight globally as the United States has the funds to draw supplies from elsewhere in the globe.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #353 on: October 18, 2024, 07:40:17 PM »
North Carolina's hurricane damage is not just destroyed homes, but contaminated water systems, experts say
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-north-carolina-hurricane-destroyed-homes.html

In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, North Carolina, with the western part of the state in particular, is facing many issues that could affect the welfare of its residents, including the quality of its water supply, according to one Northeastern University expert.

Many residents in the western part of the state get their water from home wells. These systems are prone to contamination during flooding events, leaving the people who use them at a higher risk of being exposed to E. coli and other bacteria if they don't properly sanitize them, said Kelsey Pieper, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Northeastern, who is helping the North Carolina Department of Health in its recovery efforts.

... Many of the residents aren't aware of the risk of water contamination or how to sanitize their well. Pieper said the state is working to make people aware of the risks and showing them how to test and clean their well systems.

--------------------------------------------------------

pre-hurricane baseline study

Northeastern researchers test well water in North Carolina, empowering communities with critical data
https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/09/04/well-water-testing-north-carolina/

Over 43 million Americans get their drinking water from private wells, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. However, there are no federal regulations in place to ensure the quality and safety of this water.

A research team from Northeastern University is using science to change that. Kyla Drewry, a third-year environmental engineering student working under assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering Kelsey Pieper, recently flew to North Carolina and led a team of other Ph.D. students on a research trip where they tested people’s private well water.

“It’s the responsibility of the well owner to test and maintain their water quality,” Drewry said. “The problem is a lot of people don’t know they have that responsibility or they don’t know how to manage their water quality. It’s an issue of access, knowledge and resources. One of the things we’re trying to do is make … people more aware of the risks and how to manage their water quality.”

They ended up sending out 400 sampling kits and had about 250 returned to them.

... Overall, 30% of the water tested had coliform bacteria, which indicates surface water intrusion and possible contamination. Three percent of the samples tested positive for E.coli. Metals analysis is still underway.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #354 on: October 20, 2024, 01:46:25 AM »
Just when you thought it was safe to look away, NHC had been winding down the probabilities on these systems for several days, two new storms pop out in the Atlantic. A short lived Nadine brings mainly rain to Yucatan and southern Mexico but might reform and become a hurricane in the Pacific. Oscar goes from a yellow X to a tiny hurricane in nothing flat, north of the Dominican Republic. So small that satellites can't spot it, but a hurricane hunter found a hurricane. Heading through the Turks and Caicos to Cuba, forecast to do a sharp about turn and head out into the Atlantic just before it hits Cuba.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

and an updated eye on the storm, now titled "A two-storm Saturday: Nadine and Oscar form in the western Atlantic"
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/a-caribbean-rainmaker-could-become-a-tropical-storm-just-before-sliding-inland/


morganism

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #355 on: October 20, 2024, 10:52:30 PM »
Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_ Oct 19  (only 10 mi. across right now)

A somewhat unexpected situation is unfolding in the Atlantic as Oscar has rapidly intensified into a hurricane, exceeding all expectations. This represents an incredibly rare model failure. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.

https://nitter.poast.org/WxNB_/status/1847709795656036764#m







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morganism

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #356 on: October 24, 2024, 09:27:26 PM »
MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (international name: Trami) may circle back to the direction of the country after exiting the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Sunday, said the state weather bureau.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) in its 2 p.m. typhoon bulletin on Thursday, Kristine is expected to exit PAR by Friday afternoon.

However, upon exiting PAR, Kristine may “loop” over the West Philippine Sea and then head toward the general direction of PAR on Sunday or Monday, depending on the influence of the low pressure area located east of Mindanao.

“In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein Kristine will be looping over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday and Monday and move eastward or east northwestward towards the general direction of the PAR region,” Pagasa said.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1996827/upon-exit-kristine-may-loop-over-wps-and-head-back-to-par
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #357 on: October 25, 2024, 04:35:26 AM »
HURRICANE KRISTY has become a Category 5 hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Although there is concern for dangerous surf conditions at the shores, forecasters are more worried about what that will mean in a week or two, as the conditions favorable for Kristy’s development will be moving into the Caribbean, where the ocean is much warmer and the wind shear will be less.

Historically, most very bad late-season hurricanes in the US have formed in the Gulf or Caribbean, not out in the Atlantic Ocean.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #358 on: October 30, 2024, 12:44:43 PM »
Kong-rey is going to cross Taiwan in the middle. And he's pretty big. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5961520

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #359 on: October 30, 2024, 03:44:53 PM »
Super Typhoon Kong-rey on Target for Taiwan
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-taiwan-battens-super-typhoon-kong.html



Five-meter waves pounded Taiwan's shores Wednesday as Super Typhoon Kong-rey drew near, with forecasters expecting the storm to strengthen before hitting the island as one of the most powerful in years.

Kong-rey's winds were already sustaining maximum speeds of 240 kilometers/hr (150 miles/hr) as it approached Taiwan, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center said in its latest update.

But that was expected to accelerate to 250 kph (180 mph) before the storm makes landfall in the lightly populated southeast on Thursday.

... Kong-rey was expected to dump the heaviest rain on Taiwan's eastern and northern coastal areas, and over the mountains in the central and southern regions, the Central Weather Administration said.

Yilan and the eastern county of Hualien were expected to be hardest hit, with accumulated rainfall from Tuesday to Friday reaching 800 to 1,200 millimeters (31-47 inches), forecaster Chang told AFP.

... "There is heightened concern as some recovery work from the last typhoon has yet to begin, and extra caution is advised for areas affected by recent earthquakes," said Chen-yu Chen of the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau, who leads a team monitoring disasters in slope areas.

Kong-rey will be the third typhoon to hit Taiwan since July.

... Taiwan is accustomed to frequent tropical storms from July to October, but forecaster Chang said it was unusual for such a powerful typhoon to hit this late in the year.

"The last occurrence was the Typhoon Nock-ten in October 2004," Chang told AFP.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2324prog.txt
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #360 on: November 01, 2024, 02:34:32 PM »
It ain't over 'til it's over

GFS has it meandering over Cuba then meandering around the Gulf of Mexico (where SSTs seem to be dropping a bit)
"I wasn't expecting that quite so soon" kiwichick16
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #361 on: November 01, 2024, 07:11:09 PM »
It ain't over 'til it's over

GFS has it meandering over Cuba then meandering around the Gulf of Mexico (where SSTs seem to be dropping a bit)
No way is it over yet, but its not another Milton.

Eye on the Storm has a bit more detail on why there's likely to be a storm, and also on why the gulf is a lot less friendly for storms now than it was earlier in the season.
Quote
If wanna-be-Patty does eventually make it into the Gulf of Mexico, it will have an environment much less favorable for development than encountered by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in September and October. Recurring fall cold fronts have spread cool air over the Gulf in recent weeks, causing significant cooling of the waters. More importantly, the jet stream has shifted more to the south and will bring high wind shear accompanied by dry air, making it difficult for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf to intensify
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/a-november-tropical-storm-in-the-caribbean-is-now-likely/

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #362 on: November 03, 2024, 11:06:44 PM »
Patty did form, but as a sub tropical storm near the Azores, now looking to weaken to a depression and dissipate on arrival in Portugal.

The Caribbean system has just been designated as a potential tropical cyclone, and likely to hit the Caymans and Cuba as a hurricane with what it does after that very uncertain.

PTC18 discussion key messages
Quote
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to become a
hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts
from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of Cuba.

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the
Florida Keys tonight or early Monday.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the
long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any,
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late
portions of the week.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/032054.shtml

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #363 on: November 05, 2024, 12:00:39 PM »
Raphael did form, will be a hurricane across Cuba, RI and another major is possible. There's still warm enough loop current water north of Cuba, but its cold with a lot of shear further into the Gulf. It will weaken fast, and might not even make landfall. Track is very uncertain once into the Gulf. It could head north for Florida or west for Mexico or anywhere in between.   

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #364 on: November 07, 2024, 07:18:21 PM »
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/rafael-one-of-just-three-cat2-november-hurricanes-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Raphael did RI and was a major on landfall at Cuba.

Yet another RI and major landfall for 2024. The whole of Cuba lost power.

Now moving west and gradually weakening, most likely heading for Mexico but not getting there before dissipation. There are steering currents trying to move it  N, S and W. At the moment N&S are cancelling out and if it stays like that, it'll get taken out slowly by shear/dry air/cold SST before it reaches Mexico. If it gets pulled N, the same factors will take it out even faster before it  reaches the US Gulf coast. If it gets pulled S, which is looking more likely than N, it'll hold together longer, but its too early to say whether it would survive all the way to Mexico.

Quote
Rafael’s ascension to major hurricane status on Wednesday gave the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 153 (31% above average). An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 117.

It may need  another storm to get  2024 from above average into the hyperactive category. It looks to me that Raphael needs to follow one of the ensemble tracks where it heads south and only weakens very slowly to generate enough ACE to get past 160 on its own.


The Walrus

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #365 on: November 07, 2024, 07:51:27 PM »
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/rafael-one-of-just-three-cat2-november-hurricanes-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Raphael did RI and was a major on landfall at Cuba.

Yet another RI and major landfall for 2024. The whole of Cuba lost power.

Now moving west and gradually weakening, most likely heading for Mexico but not getting there before dissipation. There are steering currents trying to move it  N, S and W. At the moment N&S are cancelling out and if it stays like that, it'll get taken out slowly by shear/dry air/cold SST before it reaches Mexico. If it gets pulled N, the same factors will take it out even faster before it  reaches the US Gulf coast. If it gets pulled S, which is looking more likely than N, it'll hold together longer, but its too early to say whether it would survive all the way to Mexico.

Quote
Rafael’s ascension to major hurricane status on Wednesday gave the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 153 (31% above average). An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 117.

It may need  another storm to get  2024 from above average into the hyperactive category. It looks to me that Raphael needs to follow one of the ensemble tracks where it heads south and only weakens very slowly to generate enough ACE to get past 160 on its own.

While the North Atlantic has been above average this year (30% higher), the rest of the world has been significantly below average, such that the global ACE is currently 25% below average.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/


Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #366 on: November 12, 2024, 01:22:30 PM »
Rafael became the first major on record in the Gulf of Mexico not to make landfall. It did last just long enough to sneak the season in the hyperactive category. It also looks like the season has more to come.  Code Red (40/80) for another Caribbean storm. It could be a big one. Models have cat4/5 heading for the same bit of Cuba that Rafael hit, but then heading for a major landfall in S Florida.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/good-news-rafael-likely-to-be-the-gulfs-first-major-hurricane-to-croak-before-landfall/

West Pacific has also sprung into action late season. It has been churning out storm after storm for the last month and is almost into the near-normal category now. Usagi looks likely to be the 5th landfall inside a month for the Phillipines.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
« Last Edit: November 12, 2024, 01:36:30 PM by Richard Rathbone »

John_the_Younger

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #367 on: November 12, 2024, 11:49:00 PM »
I do think the people in Cuba will question your statement that Rafael did not make landfall.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #368 on: November 13, 2024, 03:20:00 AM »
I do think the people in Cuba will question your statement that Rafael did not make landfall.

It didn't circle back and hit Cuba again from the Gulf, the landfall was before reaching the Gulf.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #369 on: November 16, 2024, 01:00:07 PM »
Sara looks to be making massive floods in Honduras.
Quote
There are multiple ominous precedents for a late-season tropical cyclone stalling over or near Honduras. This tragic archive includes Hurricane Mitch, which peaked at Category 5 strength in late October 1998 before stalling over Honduras as a decaying tropical storm and dumping colossal amounts of rain, with unofficial local amounts as high as 75 inches. Catastrophic mudslides and flash floods killed more than 11,000 people, including 7,000 in Honduras and 3,800 in Nicaragua, making Mitch the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in more than 200 years.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/tropical-storm-sara-forms-in-the-western-caribbean-threatens-honduras/

Too much land interaction to make it over Yucatan into the GoM. No storm for Mar el Lago this time.

Another cat5 in the Pacific, Man-Yi, heading for the Philippines. This will be their 6th landfall in a month.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #370 on: November 16, 2024, 02:07:23 PM »
Philippines urges residents to flee as super typhoon Man-Yi strengthens on approach
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/philippines-evacuates-tens-thousands-super-typhoon-man-yi-nears-2024-11-16/

MANILA, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Philippine authorities issued an urgent appeal on Saturday for residents in low-lying areas and coastal towns to move to safety as super typhoon Man-Yi gained strength on its approach towards the country's main Luzon island.

Man-Yi, the sixth tropical cyclone to hit the Philippines in a month, intensified with maximum sustained winds reaching 195 kph (121 mph) and gusts up to 240 kph, according to state weather agency PAGASA.



This month marked the first time in recorded history that four storms were active simultaneously in the western Pacific Ocean, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #371 on: November 19, 2024, 02:27:29 AM »
Nahel Belgherze
⁦‪@WxNB_‬⁩

The Philippines have now been hit by four typhoons in the span of just 10 days.

Can't say I recall ever seeing this before.
 
11/17/24, ➡️  https://x.com/wxnb_/status/1858110842048331940
😳 12 sec radar loop at the link.

——
 
Hurricane Chaser Chase
 
In a month there have been 6 typhoons!
 
11/17/24, https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1858262517992366377
⬇️
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #372 on: November 19, 2024, 01:36:38 PM »
U.S. Northwest

Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch

A potentially record-breaking bomb cyclone will intensify over the North Pacific Tuesday night, with pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane (~940 mb), producing wave heights up to 70 feet (21 m)
 
11/18/24, 12:02 AM https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/1858375162418315436
 
 
Info on the Atmospheric River forecasts of up to 24 inches (0.61 m) 😧 of rain here:
 
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg414971.html#msg414971
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #373 on: November 20, 2024, 05:38:38 PM »
Climate change goosed hurricane wind strength by 18 mph since 2019, study says
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-climate-goosed-hurricane-strength-mph.html



Human-caused climate change made Atlantic hurricanes about 18 miles per hour (29 kilometers per hour) stronger in the last six years, a new scientific study found Wednesday.

For most of the storms—40 of them—the extra oomph from warmer oceans made the storms jump an entire hurricane category, according to the study published in the journal, Environmental Research: Climate. A Category 5 storm causes more than 400 times the damage of a minimal Category 1 hurricane, more than 140 times the damage of a minimal Category 3 hurricane and more than five times the damage of a minimal Category 4 storm, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

For three storms, including this month's Rafael, the climate change factor goosed wind speed so much that the winds increased by two storm categories.

This isn't about more storms, but increasing power from the worst ones, authors said.

The effect was especially noticeable in stronger storms, including those that made it to the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity: Category Five, study authors said. The study looked at 2019 to 2023, but the authors then did a quick addition for the named storms this year, all of which had a bump up due to climate change.

"We had two Category Five storms here in 2024," Gifford said. "Our analysis shows that we would have had zero Category Five storms without human-caused climate change."

"It absolutely makes sense from a fundamental standpoint that what's going on is we've added more energy to the system," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Rick Spinrad said at United Nations climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. "The change is going to manifest in terms of what we're already seeing. You look at Hurricane Helene which was massive, 500 miles across. We're going to see changes in terms of the velocity of these storms. We're going to see changes in terms of Hurricane Milton spawning so many tornadoes."

Since 2019, eight storms—2019's Humberto, 2020's Zeta, 2021's Sam and Larry, 2022's Earl, 2023's Franklin and 2024's Isaac and Rafael—increased by at least 25 mph (40 kph) in wind speed. Humberto and Zeta gained the most: 31 miles per hour (50 kph).

In 85% of the storms studied in the last six years, the authors saw a fingerprint of climate change in storm strength, Gifford said.



Daniel M Gilford et al, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes, Environmental Research: Climate (2024)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad8d02
« Last Edit: November 20, 2024, 06:00:58 PM by vox_mundi »
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zenith

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #374 on: November 20, 2024, 06:53:55 PM »
it was a windy one last night. it's still just parked off the coast in the pacific.

Bomb cyclone slams B.C.: Highways closed, thousands without power, trees down
https://globalnews.ca/news/10878951/bomb-cyclone-bc-highways-closed-power-outages-bc-ferries/

Bomb cyclone: What can Canadians expect for winter?
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #375 on: November 27, 2024, 05:21:00 PM »
As we approach the final days of the 2024 northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season, the overall numbers were rather meh.  While the North Atlantic was certainly very active, with 11 hurricanes and 5 reaching major status, the Pacific and Indian basins were relatively calm.  The ACE for the North Atlantic was 33% above the long term mean, while the other regions were significantly below the mean.  The overall seasonal ACE to date is 453.9, compared to a mean value of 557.6, almost 20% below average.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #376 on: December 14, 2024, 05:58:53 PM »
France takes direct hit from Intense Cyclone Chido. (Cat 4)
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241214-cyclone-batters-french-indian-ocean-island-of-mayotte

Quote
Cyclone Chido caused devastating damage to the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on Saturday, a senior local official said. The archipelago was hit in some places by powerful winds of at least 226 kilometers per hour, resulting in the deaths of at least two people.

Chido now heading for Mozambique and could be more powerful than Kenneth, the current record, at landfall.

https://zoom.earth/storms/chido-2025/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Kenneth

kassy

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Re: Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024
« Reply #377 on: December 15, 2024, 07:00:50 PM »
Several hundred feared dead after Mayotte cyclone

The death toll from a cyclone which hit France's Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on Saturday is likely to be several hundred, a local official has warned.

Entire communities were flattened when Cyclone Chido made landfall, causing wind gusts of more than 225km/h (140mph).

The last reported death toll stood at 11 but speaking to local media, the island's prefect Francois-Xavier Bieuville said it will "definitely be several hundred" once the damage is fully assessed, adding it was possible that a "few thousand people had died".

French President Emmanuel Macron earlier said France would "be there" for the people of Mayotte and was sending 250 rescue workers.

France's interior minister Bruno Retailleau said "all makeshift homes have been completely destroyed" and he feared a "heavy" death toll.

On Saturday, one local news source reported that 11 people were killed and 246 injured, based on a hospital report. AFP had reported a higher death toll - at least 14 - citing a security source.

Located north-west of Madagascar, Mayotte is an archipelago comprised of one main island, Grand-Terre, and several smaller ones.

Most of the island's 300,000 or so inhabitants live in shacks with sheet metal roofs, and tens of thousands of people have lost their homes.

Electricity, water and internet connections are all down. The government in Paris has sent a military transport plane with supplies and emergency workers.

The territory's Pamandzi airport "suffered major damage, especially to the control tower," acting French Transport Minister Francois Durovray wrote on X.

Air traffic "will be restored initially with military aid planes. Ships are on the way to ensure resupply," he added.

Even before the cyclone hit with full force on Saturday morning, there were reports of trees being uprooted, roofs being ripped off buildings and power lines being downed.

The head of Mayotte's firefighters' union, Abdoul Karim Ahmed Allaoui, told the BFM news channel on Saturday morning that "even emergency responders are locked down".

...

After hitting Mayotte, the storm intensified overnight as it crossed the Mozambique Channel.

The coastal city of Pemba has been battered by heavy rains and winds gusting up to 185km/h (115mph).

Videos on social media showed parts of Pemba city were flooded, trees uprooted and some homes damaged.

The cyclone is now moving inland, with heavy rains reported in neighbouring Nampula province.

While the winds are expected to ease, heavy rain and flooding are also predicted for southern Malawi and later Zimbabwe.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2ldkg59j15o
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