Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)  (Read 983862 times)

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3938
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 425
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2950 on: July 22, 2019, 08:05:15 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data to the 15th of this month. Volume calculated from this was 8.77 [1000km3]. That is the lowest for the day, with quite a margin.

Here is the animation.

Neven, web-master: I can't seem to modify the top post anymore to change the subject of this thread to the latest update.

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3938
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 425
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2951 on: July 22, 2019, 08:27:21 AM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3938
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 425
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2952 on: July 22, 2019, 08:33:30 AM »
Daily Fram volume export graph. Little export as expected in July.

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3938
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 425
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2953 on: July 22, 2019, 08:35:41 AM »
Some people have use for the updated regional data files:


daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

Rich

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 456
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2954 on: July 22, 2019, 10:46:23 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data to the 15th of this month. Volume calculated from this was 8.77 [1000km3]. That is the lowest for the day, with quite a margin.


If anyone cares to shares the comparable figure from 2012, it would be much appreciated. The chart showing the volume anomalies gives the appearance that the gap vs. 2012 widened during the first half of July.


gerontocrat

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 5483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 748
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2955 on: July 22, 2019, 11:16:28 AM »
Some people have use for the updated regional data files:
Indeed, some of us do.
A feast that needs consuming slowly.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 544
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2956 on: July 22, 2019, 11:20:11 AM »
Daily Fram volume export graph. Little export as expected in July.
Would you mind to plot the average line a little bit thicker to make it better visible? Thanks!

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 5483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 748
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« Reply #2957 on: July 22, 2019, 11:30:13 AM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 15th July 2019  8,768  km3
The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

In June 2019 volume did not take not so much a tumble as crashed and burned..
In the first 15 days of July volume loss was mostly above average, but less so than in June.

2019 volume continues lowest in the satellite record
- less than 2017 by 279 km3,
- less than 2012 by 430 km3,
- less than 2016 by 1,510 km3,
- less than 2018 by 1,425 km3,

It is data that seems to back up numerous observations in the melting thread regarding the condition of the ice  - e.g.s  highly mobile, fractured, disintegrating, rubble, dispersed.

At average volume loss for the rest of the season, minimum volume would be a bit above 3,300 km3, more than 300 km3 below the current record minimum of 2012, and more than 16500 km3 below the 2010's average minimum of nearly  5,000 km3.
_______________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

subgeometer

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 295
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2958 on: July 22, 2019, 11:49:41 AM »
Thankyou Wipneus

Grim news, tho not unexpected.

Thinning in the Linciln Sea is pronounced, if it continures at the rate under the current high... we could see something unprecedented there

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 5483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 748
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2959 on: July 22, 2019, 01:01:30 PM »
A look at some individual seas as I get round to it.

The ice in the Chukchi, being attacked by early Bering melt and high SSTs, does look as if it might be a candidate for another sea going past a tipping point if current trends are maintained.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 01:06:42 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 481
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2960 on: July 22, 2019, 03:17:59 PM »
Percentage loss from of maximum according to piomas data, for CAB, 2011-2019.
thanks Phil.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 08:25:02 PM by uniquorn »

Phil.

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 301
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2961 on: July 22, 2019, 03:37:38 PM »
Percentage loss from maximum according to piomas data, for CAB, 2011-2019.

Isn't that the percentage remaining since the maximum?

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3938
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2962 on: July 22, 2019, 07:37:16 PM »
A few more regional charts.
With the CAB becoming the most important in the late season, a chart of all years since 2000, with 2019 showing a disturbing trend. And another chart of the volume for certain days of the year. Anyone who thinks the CAB has stabilized in recent years, check out the black line for day 196 (mid-July, the most recent data point) that set a new record low for the date.
The Barents volume, where 2019 trails 2012 by a huge margin, shows by proxy the state of the Atlantic side. A lot depends on the developments on that front in the next two months.
And the total for Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi, Beaufort, CAB, CAA and Greenland Sea, the only regions expected to participate in the Sept. minimum. Eyeballing the chart shows there are only two options, new record or 2nd lowest, with the 2012 "Great Leap Forward" (days 217-220, the GAC) making things complicated.

UCMiami

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2963 on: July 22, 2019, 08:18:29 PM »
Oren - great post. What I find interesting with the specific seas CAB and Barents is the significant cause for the volume variances is different:
In the CAB it would appear the 2019 number is driven by ice thickness since if anything area (and extent) in the CAB in 2019 trail vs. other years and not just 2012.

On the Atlantic side and specifically in the Barents the 2019 number lags primarily because the area (and extent) are much higher than in previous years and not just vs. 2012. The slow Atlantic side area is driving the number not the ice thickness.

jdallen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2962
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2964 on: July 22, 2019, 10:49:31 PM »
A few more regional charts.
With the CAB becoming the most important in the late season, a chart of all years since 2000, with 2019 showing a disturbing trend.
<snippage>
Judging from some of the earlier charts Wip posted, looking back I think we will find that the seminal transitional year for the ice really was 2007 rather than 2012.  If we broke it down by region, I think it would show that is the year that many seas which previously maintained ice year over year consistently took such a serious hit that they have not been able to recover either the thickness nor quality of ice they needed to be stable year over year.  2012 was just a "blip" on what was the new system regime 2007 put us into, and have been following since.

2019 may represent the point at which we transition down the next step in the cascade, or it may be "just another"  2012.

That said, I think both are/will be less causes than effects, and the real story is how they reflect the on-going changes in heat content, atmospheric heat exchange, and water column in the Arctic ocean.
This space for Rent.