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Author Topic: Freeform season chatter and light commentary  (Read 141655 times)

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #700 on: February 25, 2021, 03:35:18 AM »
What I do not like in this that Russian people seem to sit on some essential information on deteriorated state of the Arctic for personal gains within hydrocarbon industries and keep quiet until they rake in handsome profits. I believe there is a sort of "deep state" in Russia where real information is for business tycoons and military folks tied to Vladimir Putin (I think Trump tried to turn America similar but run out steam by offending too many people in the process by sharp tongue). The results we can see from lop sided polar vortex slung out far to the south like Texas and warm air replacing it on the North Pole. Huge volume of hyper dense ultra-cold polar air in low latitudes swells like a weather balloon running into mesosphere, result here being a lock-in of cold air in south like Texas, and a warm collapsing air blob on the pole (and winter freeze gone missing). I am just starting to get emotional (rather strong negative emotions) about all those business and military folks who seem to know more of things than they are willing to let others to know for their own agenda. This all leaves us questions: ice-free Arctic and Asian monsoon vanished, Atlantic winter rains gone Morocco, Algeria, Portugal, Spain and UK's water reservoirs totally dry. We were lucky (Sea Research Society + Arctic Methane Emergency Group) to present our concerns in UK national prime-time broadcast on both sides of 9pm news broadcast to raise some of these issues when yesterday's UN Security Council Meeting headed by UK PM Boris Johnson was being discussed. I think public does have now zero tolerance here in UK for all sorts of spin doctoring "rosy climates". Ongoing sea ice losses came well out thanks to AMEG's John Nissen. Sir David Beckham vanished middle of program possibly angered on discussion on possibility of downsizing international sports events to reduce air mileage and pollution, perhaps called out by UK's Football Association or FIFA, should have given a pack of sea ice to keep his head cool. >:(

I find Gerontocrats comment in the other strain (Ice Area graphics) just hitting the point:

Gerontocrat:
"Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #214 on: February 24, 2021, 07:21:22 PM »
From NSIDC Data - 3 sea ice AREA graphs)

The Atlantic Front continues to fascinate.
 
- The Central Arctic has lost 100k in sea ice area in 8 days, in that time moving from 15th to 2nd  lowest sea ice area in the satellite record in that time.
- The Greenland Sea has lost nearly 150k in sea ice area in 9 days, in that time moving from 21st to 3rd lowest sea ice area in the satellite record in that time.

On the other hand, the Barents sea gained over 200k in sea ice area from the 1st to the 16th of February, moving from 14th to 27th lowest in that time. Since then sea ice loss is just less than 20k, and the Barents sea ice area is still 25th lowest in the satellite.

How much is melt and freeze and how much is increased mobility is a question I cannot answer."

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-tanker-cuts-previously-impossible-153300350.html
"The deepest ice encountered by the ships was about 5 feet thick. The vessels encountered no multi-year buildup of old ice on the route, however, and meteorologist and journalist Eric Holthaus called that a clear indicator of "a climate emergency.""
Will they update the models with ice thickness data from commercial shipping in the future.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #701 on: February 25, 2021, 03:43:50 AM »
(Moved here from freezing season thread. Emotions don't belong there)

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #702 on: February 26, 2021, 10:02:11 PM »
I do find it strange that while we all agree that volume is the best measure , we ignore what it says about where we are in the freeze/melt cycle . Peak volume is probably 2 or 3 months away , at which time melt finally exceeds freeze .. Neither melt or freeze are seasonal in that both are always ongoing , unless we have passed the point where that is true , yet twice a year excitement builds . Are the Inuit and the polar bears awaiting the news with bated breath ? AS IF ! :) b.c.

     Friends, Romans, Earthlings: As one who has disparaged Extent as an incomplete, superficial, and highly variable manifestation of Volume, I come here today not to bury Extent but to praise it.

     Yes, we all agree that if the question is how much ASI remains etc., Volume is the best measure.  But a major importance of ASI is its effect on Arcitc albedo and Earth system energy balance.  (That whole bit about white polar caps acting as reflective mirrors, that are turning into dark absorptive open water.)

     So while Extent has its problems (as all the metrics do), it is a way to track the albedo dimension of ASI influence on the climate system.  And Extent has the advantage of being the easiest dimension to directly measure.

     Technically, Area might be a better metric to use for that purpose.  But Area is derived by multiplying average concentration within each grid cell x the Extent, so while Area is more closely associated with the objective (tracking albedo status), that extra layer of abstraction and estimation introduces more error.  At least that's how I understand it.  Someone can correct me if that's wrong.

     Thickness is even more difficult to directly measure than Extent because while we can see the horizontal spread of the ice, it is a lot more difficult to see the vertical dimension.  Thickness is also important on its own because ice of different thicknesses has different qualities with respect to melt rate and mobility.

     Volume is a function of Area and Thickness, so suffers from the estimation error within each of its components.  But if you want to know how much ice there is, Volume is the only measure that describes that.

     The ease of access and direct measurability for each metric decreases with how comprehensive is the information it provides.  It is kind of like renovating a house - you can have Speed, Quality, or Cheap.  But you can't have all three at once, so you have to choose where you are willing to compromise.

     Extent, simply being the outer edge of the ice (>15% concentration), is at first appearance an inadequate way to measure the status of ASI upon which the habitability of our planet depends (a realization which is relatively new to many of us, and which is still unappreciated by too many of us).  But it works well enough, and thanks to JAXA, NSIDC, JCG and Gerontocrat we get daily updates that allow us to monitor the situation with day to day granularity. 

     Thankfully, we also get Area updates, and thanks to PIOMAS, HYCOM, CS2/SMOS, Wipneus etc. we get regular updates on Thickness and Volume as well.  All of which is still amazing to me, having been born before the first grainy B&W picture of Earth from a distance was taken.

     I am frequently struck by the irony that our technical brilliance and ability to monitor and understand our planet advances at a rapid pace, and in a very close race with our irresponsible stewardship and self-defeating carelessness to foul our own nest.  I read shocking venal stupidity from the mouths of politicians on the same day I get to see stunning 4K video from Mars and read about advances in quantum manipulation that reach into the mystical realm.  These are interesting but strange times.  Let's hope the better half of our divided character wins the race.  Turns out our Moms and Dads were right, braun and brains are important, but character matters even more.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2021, 03:07:06 AM by Glen Koehler »

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #703 on: February 27, 2021, 12:11:37 AM »
Nice post Glen. Yes, all ASI measures have their merit.

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #704 on: February 27, 2021, 12:47:18 AM »
...we all agree that volume is the best measure

Thanks Glen for your excellent reply! Reading the above caused me to grip my keyboard quite tightly...

Signed, a practicing Extenter.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #705 on: March 02, 2021, 08:31:09 PM »
Several of the wave buoys in the Bering Sea are out of action at the moment, but buoy 46073 managed to record this:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/02/the-2021-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#comment-406461
At risk of being scolded by Oren for this post, a graph can only say so much...
So here's an impression of what the Bering sea must be like at this moment in time...



And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #706 on: March 02, 2021, 09:19:18 PM »
No need to fear, it just needs to be posted in the appropriate thread.  ::)

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #707 on: March 03, 2021, 06:01:55 AM »
At risk of being scolded by Oren for this post, a graph can only say so much...
So here's an impression of what the Bering sea must be like at this moment in time...
I can telly you it is no fun trying to sleep in a forward bunk during a storm like that, spending half the time on the underside of the bunk above. And then literally being slammed down into your own bunk as the bow ploughs into the next wave.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Jim Hunt

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #708 on: March 03, 2021, 01:50:04 PM »
For some strange reason my ears have been burning!

Via: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3299.msg302275.html#msg302275



Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

WildFit

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #709 on: March 03, 2021, 05:46:14 PM »
At risk of being scolded by Oren for this post, a graph can only say so much...
So here's an impression of what the Bering sea must be like at this moment in time...
I can telly you it is no fun trying to sleep in a forward bunk during a storm like that, spending half the time on the underside of the bunk above. And then literally being slammed down into your own bunk as the bow ploughs into the next wave.


True that, I had the pleasure around 60 years ago. While I was lucky and enjoyed the roller coaster, especially the being slammed down part, while my cabin-mate suffered day and night but the fun only lasted as long as I was laying flat on my back, every turning and bending was punished immediately. :D  12 Beaufort and a wave length of several hundred Meters that was.

I must say that I love those seas genuinely, usually spending as much time as possible outside, hiding each time the next waterfront flies over the flying bridge that had a clearance of 30-40 Meters above the waterline ( modern cruise ships often almost double that clearance )