2019 sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 8^th, 2019:
     10,969,220 km², a century increase of 163,572 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,969,220 km2（December 8, 2019）

A fifth day of extreme extent gains that seem ever-increasing.

- Extent gain on this day 164 k, 107k more than the average gain of 57k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,005 k, 442k (6.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,563 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 720 k more than 2016
- Extent is 89k more than 2018
- Extent is 16 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.25 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.37 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days?
_____________________________________________________________
With luck this laptop will be operational today so NSIDC Area & Extent can be looked at to see from whence all these sea ice gains are coming.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 8 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,664,730 km2

Total Area           9,664,730    km2       -166,371    km2   <   2010's average. -190,639    km2   <   2018 -552,635    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    121    k   gain Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain Central Seas__    39    k   gain Other Seas___    58    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    25    k   gain Greenland____   -12    k   loss Barents ______    11    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________    6    k   gain East Siberian__    6    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    12    k   gain Laptev_______   -9    k   loss Chukchi______    22    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___    64    k   gain

Daily gain 121 k, 51 k MORE than the 2010's average of 70 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 166 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 191 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 971 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days
________________________________________________________________________
The final maximum sea ice area and extent result will depend on seas on the periphery or outside of the main Arctic Ocean, namely..
- The Okhotsk Sea,
- The Bering Sea,
- Baffin Bay,
- The St. Lawrence Sea,
- The Greenland Sea
- The Barents Sea.

So the current very rapid freeze of Hudson Bay is essentially irrelevant.

As far as the 2020 melting season is concerned, it may be that the seas with significance for early melting are just the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas.

[Juan C. García]

With a double century average increase with the last 3 daily values, we should expect important increases on the next NSIDC 5-day trailing averages.

[kassy]

And suddenly you are really curious about Aluminiums next update....lot of these extent gains are probably edges filling up in the Bering sea. The room is there as you can see in #2990.

[gerontocrat]

I can take a hint, Juan...
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 5 day trailing averages - Analysed as for JAXA data:-
Extent  11,080,581 km2（December 8, 2019）

Extreme extent gains started 2 days ago - will continue

- Extent gain on this day 128 k, 61k more than the average gain of 67k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,927 k, 199k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,728 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 657 k more than 2016
- Extent is 110k less than 2018
- Extent is 164 k (1.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.20 million km2 (14.24 million km2 in March 2018).
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days.

The data is very close to that of JAXA extent data
_____________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 9^th, 2019:
     11,052,722 km², an increase of 83,502 km².
     2019 is 5^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,052,722 km2（December 9, 2019）


- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 6k less than the average gain of 90 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,088 k, 436k (6.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,652 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 687 k more than 2016
- Extent is 90k more than 2018
- Extent is 11 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 67.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 93 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.24 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.36 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

On this day sea ice extent gain a trifle below average - what next?
_____________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 10^th, 2019:
     11,095,941 km², an increase of 43,219 km².
     2019 is now 4^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,095,941 km2（December 10, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 43 k, 67 k less than the average gain of 110 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,132 k, 730 k (5.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,762 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2016
- Extent is 22k more than 2018
- Extent is 60 k (0.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 68.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 92 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.1  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which probably contributed to the recent large and even extreme extent gains and now the very low extent gains.

On this day sea ice extent gain very much below average - what next?
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 10 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,889,910  km2

Total Area           9,889,910    km2    -108,018    km2   <   2010's average. -137,557    km2   <   2018 -467,802    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    107    k   gain Peripheral Seas    34    k   gain Central Seas__    20    k   gain Other Seas___    54    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain Greenland____    10    k   gain Barents ______    13    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    6    k   gain Central Arctic_    7    k   gain           Kara_________    4    k   gain Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______    9    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    47    k   gain

Daily gain 107 k, 17 k MORE than the 2010's average of 90 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 108 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,028 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.1  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which probably contributed to the recent large and even extreme sea ice gains

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last week or so.
________________________________________________________________________
The final maximum sea ice area and extent result and the seas with significance for early melting are principally the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas, with the Okhotsk & Baffin Bay of secondary significance

[gerontocrat]

Seas to watch at the end of the freezing season

Chukchi - how late will the final freeze be?
Bering  - how much winter sea ice ?

Greenland - high extent could just mean CAB loses even more thick ice.
Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?

[RoxTheGeologist]

Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?

Barents: I'm curious as to why we started seeing encroachment onto the Shelf. for a few years there was little ice on the shelf because of (presumably) Atlantic water effectively melting ice as it crossed the continental shelf before flowing down the slope. Why is less warm water (or more cold water) finding its way to the shelf boundary and increasing extent? Has the AMOC slowed?; Is the warm water deeper; is it finding its way around to the Nares? Should I post this on stupid questions?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 11^th, 2019:
     11,194,613 km², an almost century increase of 98,672 km².
     But on the other hand, 2019 becomes 2^nd lowest on record
     (we can say that tied with 2017 & 2018).
     The fourth worst years are the four last years.

[oren]

It's amazing how all years shown on the chart contract to a pinpoint on Dec. 12th. Some kind of repetitive fluke (except the crazy 2016).

[gerontocrat]

Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?

Barents: I'm curious as to why we started seeing encroachment onto the Shelf. for a few years there was little ice on the shelf because of (presumably) Atlantic water effectively melting ice as it crossed the continental shelf before flowing down the slope. Why is less warm water (or more cold water) finding its way to the shelf boundary and increasing extent? Has the AMOC slowed?; Is the warm water deeper; is it finding its way around to the Nares? Should I post this on stupid questions?

The article below gives the process of atlantification of the Barents Sea.
This year the process seems to have stopped (temporarily?).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,194,613 km2（December 11, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 99 k, 2 k more than the average gain of 97 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,230 k, 370 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 6,860 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 443 k more than 2016
- Extent is 3 k less than 2018
- Extent is 66 k (0.6%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 69.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 91 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 11 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,974,223  km2

Total Area           9,974,223    km2       -114,553    km2   <   2010's average. -137,694    km2   <   2018 -455,132    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    84    k   gain Peripheral Seas    34    k   gain Central Seas__   -3    k   loss Other Seas___    53    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -5    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain Greenland____    13    k   gain Barents ______    16    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    9    k   gain           Kara_________   -2    k   loss Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    6    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    47    k   gain

Daily gain 84 k, 7 k LESS than the 2010's average of 91 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 115 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,001 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________
The seas with significance for early melting in 2020 are principally the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas.

The final maximum sea ice area and extent result also depends on those seas and the Okhotsk, St. Lawrence & Baffin Bay

[sailor]

It's amazing how all years shown on the chart contract to a pinpoint on Dec. 12th. Some kind of repetitive fluke (except the crazy 2016).

I tend to believe it's an apparent effect of the geometry of the lands surrounding the Arctic and the average freezing/melting of the time of the year, that.causes this effect now and on May (when the Arctic proper is almost frozen and the landlocked peripheral seas as well). A moment of least sensitivity of sea ice extent with years.

Obviously wrong on the long tern, as the 80's average is many hundred thousand km2 above.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 12^th, 2019:
     11,252,541 km², an increase of 57,928 km².
     2019 is 2^nd lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,252,541 km2（December 12, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 13 k less than the average gain of 71 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,288 k, 358 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 6,930 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 400 k more than 2016
- Extent is 53 k less than 2018
- Extent is 81 k (0.7%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 70.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 90 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.16 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.28 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

[Phil.]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,252,541 km2（December 12, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 13 k more than the average gain of 71 k,

Should be "Extent gain on this day 58 k, 13 k more less than the average gain of 71 k,"

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 12 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,038,141  km2

Total Area           10,038,141    km2       -135,671    km2   <   2010's average. -128,957    km2   <   2018 -462,503    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    64    k   gain Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain Central Seas__    5    k   gain Other Seas___    38    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -7    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain Greenland____    11    k   gain Barents ______    10    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss CAA_________   -5    k   loss East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    11    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    7    k   gain Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    6    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    32    k   gain

Daily gain 64 k, 21 k LESS than the 2010's average of 85 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 136 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 129 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 957 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________

[zufall]

No post on JAXA extent today yet, so ...

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Dec 13 extent: 11,318,287 km², up 65,746 km² from Dec 12.

Third lowest, practically tied with 2012 which is only 201 km² higher.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,776,823 km2（December 13, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 66 k, 5 k less than the average gain of 71 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,354 k, 353 k (5.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,001 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 423 k more than 2016
- Extent is 80 k less than 2018
- Extent is 74 k (0.6%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 71.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 89 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.16 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.28 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.
_____________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

No post on JAXA extent today yet, so ...

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Dec 13 extent: 11,318,287 km², up 65,746 km² from Dec 12.

Third lowest, practically tied with 2012 which is only 201 km² higher.

Thanks for your post Zufall 
I was very tired yesterday (Mexico's time), so I went to bed early.   

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 13^th, 2019:
     11,318,287 km², an increase of 65,746 km².
     2019 is now 3^rd lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 13 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,105,647 km2

Total Area           10,105,647    km2       -147,780    km2   <   2010's average. -111,332    km2   <   2018 -463,183    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    68    k   gain Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain Central Seas__    13    k   gain Other Seas___    38    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -1    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain Greenland____    6    k   gain Barents ______    6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss CAA_________   -6    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_    10    k   gain           Kara_________    8    k   gain Laptev_______    10    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    35    k   gain

Daily gain 68 k, 12 k LESS than the 2010's average of 80 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 148 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 111 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 891 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +1.8celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 14^th, 2019:
     11,418,285 km², an almost century increase of 99,998 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,418,285 km2（December 14, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 100 k, 26 k more than the average gain of 74 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,454 k, 379 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,075 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 408 k more than 2016
- Extent is 33 k less than 2018
- Extent is 42 k (0.4%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 71.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 88 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.19 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.31 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +3.1  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines.

Atlantic front winds still strong.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,192,074 km2

Total Area           10,192,074    km2       -132,629    km2   <   2010's average. -71,832    km2   <   2018 -446,261    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    86    k   gain Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain Central Seas__    26    k   gain Other Seas___    46    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -1    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____    0    k   gain Barents ______    4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss CAA_________   -5    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    10    k   gain           Kara_________    10    k   gain Laptev_______    8    k   gain Chukchi______    9    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    40    k   gain

Daily gain 86 k, 15 k MORE than the 2010's average of 71 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 133 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 72 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 843 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +3.1  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines.

Atlantic front winds still strong.
________________________________________________________________________