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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3000 on: December 09, 2019, 04:51:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 8th, 2019:
     10,969,220 km2, a century increase of 163,572 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3001 on: December 09, 2019, 07:10:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,969,220 km2(December 8, 2019)

A fifth day of extreme extent gains that seem ever-increasing.

- Extent gain on this day 164 k, 107k more than the average gain of 57k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,005 k, 442k (6.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,563 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 720 k more than 2016
- Extent is 89k more than 2018
- Extent is 16 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.25 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.37 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days?
_____________________________________________________________
With luck this laptop will be operational today so NSIDC Area & Extent can be looked at to see from whence all these sea ice gains are coming.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3002 on: December 09, 2019, 04:42:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,664,730 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,664,730    km2      
-166,371    km2   <   2010's average.
-190,639    km2   <   2018
-552,635    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    121    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    39    k   gain
Other Seas___    58    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    25    k   gain
Greenland____   -12    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Chukchi______    22    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    64    k   gain

Daily gain 121 k, 51 k MORE than the 2010's average of 70 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 166 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 191 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 971 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days
________________________________________________________________________
The final maximum sea ice area and extent result will depend on seas on the periphery or outside of the main Arctic Ocean, namely..
- The Okhotsk Sea,
- The Bering Sea,
- Baffin Bay,
- The St. Lawrence Sea,
- The Greenland Sea
- The Barents Sea.

So the current very rapid freeze of Hudson Bay is essentially irrelevant.

As far as the 2020 melting season is concerned, it may be that the seas with significance for early melting are just the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3003 on: December 09, 2019, 05:25:31 PM »
With a double century average increase with the last 3 daily values, we should expect important increases on the next NSIDC 5-day trailing averages.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kassy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3004 on: December 09, 2019, 06:33:07 PM »
And suddenly you are really curious about Aluminiums next update....lot of these extent gains are probably edges filling up in the Bering sea. The room is there as you can see in #2990.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3005 on: December 09, 2019, 07:21:25 PM »
I can take a hint, Juan...
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 5 day trailing averages - Analysed as for JAXA data:-
Extent  11,080,581 km2(December 8, 2019)

Extreme extent gains started 2 days ago - will continue

- Extent gain on this day 128 k, 61k more than the average gain of 67k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,927 k, 199k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,728 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 657 k more than 2016
- Extent is 110k less than 2018
- Extent is 164 k (1.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.20 million km2 (14.24 million km2 in March 2018).
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days.

The data is very close to that of JAXA extent data
_____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 08:21:49 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3006 on: December 10, 2019, 04:46:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 9th, 2019:
     11,052,722 km2, an increase of 83,502 km2.
     2019 is 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3007 on: December 10, 2019, 12:52:22 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,052,722 km2(December 9, 2019)


- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 6k less than the average gain of 90 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,088 k, 436k (6.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,652 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 687 k more than 2016
- Extent is 90k more than 2018
- Extent is 11 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 67.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 93 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.24 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.36 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

On this day sea ice extent gain a trifle below average - what next?
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3008 on: December 11, 2019, 05:13:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 10th, 2019:
     11,095,941 km2, an increase of 43,219 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3009 on: December 11, 2019, 12:20:06 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,095,941 km2(December 10, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 43 k, 67 k less than the average gain of 110 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,132 k, 730 k (5.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,762 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2016
- Extent is 22k more than 2018
- Extent is 60 k (0.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 68.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 92 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.1  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which probably contributed to the recent large and even extreme extent gains and now the very low extent gains.

On this day sea ice extent gain very much below average - what next?
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3010 on: December 11, 2019, 04:39:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,889,910  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,889,910    km2   
-108,018    km2   <   2010's average.
-137,557    km2   <   2018
-467,802    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    107    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    34    k   gain
Central Seas__    20    k   gain
Other Seas___    54    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    47    k   gain

Daily gain 107 k, 17 k MORE than the 2010's average of 90 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 108 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,028 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.1  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which probably contributed to the recent large and even extreme sea ice gains

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last week or so.
________________________________________________________________________
The final maximum sea ice area and extent result and the seas with significance for early melting are principally the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas, with the Okhotsk & Baffin Bay of secondary significance
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3011 on: December 11, 2019, 05:14:24 PM »
Seas to watch at the end of the freezing season

Chukchi - how late will the final freeze be?
Bering  - how much winter sea ice ?

Greenland - high extent could just mean CAB loses even more thick ice.
Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3012 on: December 11, 2019, 07:25:16 PM »

Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?


Barents: I'm curious as to why we started seeing encroachment onto the Shelf. for a few years there was little ice on the shelf because of (presumably) Atlantic water effectively melting ice as it crossed the continental shelf before flowing down the slope. Why is less warm water (or more cold water) finding its way to the shelf boundary and increasing extent? Has the AMOC slowed?; Is the warm water deeper; is it finding its way around to the Nares? Should I post this on stupid questions?

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3013 on: December 12, 2019, 04:50:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 11th, 2019:
     11,194,613 km2, an almost century increase of 98,672 km2.
     But on the other hand, 2019 becomes 2nd lowest on record
     (we can say that tied with 2017 & 2018).
     The fourth worst years are the four last years.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3014 on: December 12, 2019, 11:08:22 AM »
It's amazing how all years shown on the chart contract to a pinpoint on Dec. 12th. Some kind of repetitive fluke (except the crazy 2016).

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3015 on: December 12, 2019, 12:42:28 PM »
Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?
Barents: I'm curious as to why we started seeing encroachment onto the Shelf. for a few years there was little ice on the shelf because of (presumably) Atlantic water effectively melting ice as it crossed the continental shelf before flowing down the slope. Why is less warm water (or more cold water) finding its way to the shelf boundary and increasing extent? Has the AMOC slowed?; Is the warm water deeper; is it finding its way around to the Nares? Should I post this on stupid questions?
The article below gives the process of atlantification of the Barents Sea.
This year the process seems to have stopped (temporarily?).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3016 on: December 12, 2019, 12:58:11 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,194,613 km2(December 11, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 99 k, 2 k more than the average gain of 97 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,230 k, 370 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 6,860 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 443 k more than 2016
- Extent is 3 k less than 2018
- Extent is 66 k (0.6%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 69.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 91 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3017 on: December 12, 2019, 03:28:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,974,223  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,974,223    km2      
-114,553    km2   <   2010's average.
-137,694    km2   <   2018
-455,132    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    84    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    34    k   gain
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___    53    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    47    k   gain

Daily gain 84 k, 7 k LESS than the 2010's average of 91 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 115 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,001 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________
The seas with significance for early melting in 2020 are principally the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas.

The final maximum sea ice area and extent result also depends on those seas and the Okhotsk, St. Lawrence & Baffin Bay
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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sailor

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3018 on: December 12, 2019, 07:58:07 PM »
It's amazing how all years shown on the chart contract to a pinpoint on Dec. 12th. Some kind of repetitive fluke (except the crazy 2016).
I tend to believe it's an apparent effect of the geometry of the lands surrounding the Arctic and the average freezing/melting of the time of the year, that.causes this effect now and on May (when the Arctic proper is almost frozen and the landlocked peripheral seas as well). A moment of least sensitivity of sea ice extent with years.

Obviously wrong on the long tern, as the 80's average is many hundred thousand km2 above.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3019 on: December 13, 2019, 05:36:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 12th, 2019:
     11,252,541 km2, an increase of 57,928 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3020 on: December 13, 2019, 01:04:23 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,252,541 km2(December 12, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 13 k less than the average gain of 71 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,288 k, 358 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 6,930 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 400 k more than 2016
- Extent is 53 k less than 2018
- Extent is 81 k (0.7%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 70.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 90 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.16 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.28 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 03:26:27 PM by gerontocrat »
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Phil.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3021 on: December 13, 2019, 03:25:00 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,252,541 km2(December 12, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 13 k more than the average gain of 71 k,

Should be "Extent gain on this day 58 k, 13 k more less than the average gain of 71 k,"

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3022 on: December 13, 2019, 03:25:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,038,141  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 10,038,141    km2      
-135,671    km2   <   2010's average.
-128,957    km2   <   2018
-462,503    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    64    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___    38    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    32    k   gain

Daily gain 64 k, 21 k LESS than the 2010's average of 85 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 136 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 129 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 957 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3023 on: December 14, 2019, 10:13:16 AM »
No post on JAXA extent today yet, so ...

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Dec 13 extent: 11,318,287 km², up 65,746 km² from Dec 12.

Third lowest, practically tied with 2012 which is only 201 km² higher.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3024 on: December 14, 2019, 10:14:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,776,823 km2(December 13, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 66 k, 5 k less than the average gain of 71 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,354 k, 353 k (5.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,001 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 423 k more than 2016
- Extent is 80 k less than 2018
- Extent is 74 k (0.6%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 71.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 89 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.16 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.28 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3025 on: December 14, 2019, 01:16:14 PM »
No post on JAXA extent today yet, so ...

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Dec 13 extent: 11,318,287 km², up 65,746 km² from Dec 12.

Third lowest, practically tied with 2012 which is only 201 km² higher.
Thanks for your post Zufall  :)
I was very tired yesterday (Mexico's time), so I went to bed early.   :-[

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 13th, 2019:
     11,318,287 km2, an increase of 65,746 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
« Last Edit: Today at 04:51:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3026 on: December 14, 2019, 03:18:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,105,647 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 10,105,647    km2      
-147,780    km2   <   2010's average.
-111,332    km2   <   2018
-463,183    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    68    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain
Central Seas__    13    k   gain
Other Seas___    38    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    10    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    35    k   gain

Daily gain 68 k, 12 k LESS than the 2010's average of 80 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 148 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 111 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 891 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +1.8celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3027 on: Today at 04:50:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 14th, 2019:
     11,418,285 km2, an almost century increase of 99,998 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3028 on: Today at 02:28:21 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,418,285 km2(December 14, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 100 k, 26 k more than the average gain of 74 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,454 k, 379 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,075 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 408 k more than 2016
- Extent is 33 k less than 2018
- Extent is 42 k (0.4%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 71.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 88 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.19 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.31 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +3.1  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines.

Atlantic front winds still strong.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3029 on: Today at 03:14:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,192,074 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 10,192,074    km2      
-132,629    km2   <   2010's average.
-71,832    km2   <   2018
-446,261    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    86    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    26    k   gain
Other Seas___    46    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    40    k   gain

Daily gain 86 k, 15 k MORE than the 2010's average of 71 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 133 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 72 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 843 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +3.1  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines.

Atlantic front winds still strong.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)