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Sigmetnow

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Orbital Debris / Warnings
« on: March 08, 2024, 07:36:45 PM »
Most information like this will not be catastrophic, but having a separate thread could be helpful for timely dissemination of news. 
 
Let’s try to keep it free from lengthy philosophical arguments about whether we should be in space at all, since that horse has already left the barn.  Thanks.


—-
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
 
Japan's HTV9 cargo ship visited ISS in May-Aug 2020. It left behind, attached to ISS, a 2633 kg equipment pallet carrying 9 discarded Station batteries. This pallet was heaved overboard by the Canadarm-2 on 2021 Mar 11 and is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry…. 
3/7/24, 11:38 AM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1765779124365214060
➡️ pic.twitter.com/TbepjTS2lZ  Altitude line graph

Reentry of the EP-9 battery pallet jettisoned from ISS in 2021 is currently predicted (by Space Force) between 1230 UTC Mar 8 and 0830 UTC Mar 9. It will not totally burn up on reentry - about half a tonne of fragments will likely hit the Earth's surface.
3/7/24, 11:39 AM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1765779232511181003
 
Updated Space-Track reentry window for EP-9: Between 1630 and 2230 UTC Mar 8.
3/8/24, 8:13 AM

If I use the central 50% of the Space-Track EP-9 reentry estimate, likely reentry regions are India, Indian Ocean, Perth, Pacific, Guatemala, Yucatan, Florida, Atlantic, Bude, Exeter, Dieppe, Reims, Strasbourg, Bavaria, Innsbruck, Slovenia, Zagreb, Serbia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Riyadh.
3/8/24, 10:56 AM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1766130814285201482

⬇️ Here is a picture of EP-9 after jettison from ISS pic.twitter.com/VQYf9GjyeP
3/7/24, 11:40 AM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1765779507175108708

It's not aimed at all. It was jettisoned in 2021 and left in orbit, with no way to predict where it would eventually come down. Imagine throwing a trash bag in the ocean and watching it float off - it will eventually wash ashore, but no way to know where.
3/8/24, 10:59 AM. https://x.com/planet4589/status/1766131756984369186

Flo @FloSpacenerd
@planet4589 Even though the risk is extremely low, the Federal Office for Civil Protection in Germany has issued a corresponding warning 👀
warnung.bund.de/meldungen/mow.… pic.twitter.com/0JG4K06eSH  ⬇️
3/7/24, 12:10 PM  https://x.com/flospacenerd/status/1765786995517726783
 
“Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, National Warning Centre 1 Bonn Germany reports: Information on the entry of debris into the earth's atmosphere - from 07.03.2024 15:52.

“Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, National Warning Centre 1 Bonn reports: In the period between the noon of the 08 March and the noon of the 09 March, the re-entry of a larger space object into the Earth's atmosphere is expected, which may fragment.
The object is battery packages of the International Space Station ISS.
Light phenomena or the perception of a sonic bang are possible. According to current information, the probability of the encounter of debris in Germany can be estimated as very low. If the risk increases, you will receive new information. An overview of the probable overflight path at this time can be found here:
https://bbk.bund.de/ueberflug


< Couldn't they send it back to Earth using dragon? or maybe Cygnus? so that it had a planned re entry
Jonathan McDowell
Too heavy for those vehicles. EP-1 to EP-8 were deorbited with the Japanese HTV, but they didn't have any left
3/8/24, 12:26 PM. https://x.com/planet4589/status/1766153492320632857
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2024, 09:08:51 PM »
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
EP-9 has probably reentered by now, most likely over the Pacific Ocean
3/8/24, 2:45 PM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1766188608757571744
 
< So I can go inside? Its freezing 🥶

——
EDIT
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
The EP-9 equipment pallet reentered at 1929 UTC over the Gulf of Mexico between Cancun and Cuba. This was witih the previous prediction window but a little to the northeast of the 'most likely' part of the path. A couple minutes later reentry and it would have reached Ft Myers [Florida]
3/8/24, 4:18 PM. https://x.com/planet4589/status/1766211941922415053
« Last Edit: March 08, 2024, 10:27:36 PM by Sigmetnow »
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SeanAU

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2024, 02:45:20 AM »
Pails into insignificance to the endless Debris being dumped on our heads through the internet, the media and this forum ..... I know how to Block posters ... how does one block entire Threads?

« Last Edit: March 09, 2024, 01:28:07 PM by SeanAU »
It's wealth, constantly seeking more wealth, to better seek still more wealth. Building wealth off of destruction. That's what's consuming the world. And is driving humans crazy at the same time.

trm1958

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2024, 11:53:08 AM »
Pails into insignificance to the endless Debris being dumped on our heads through the internet, the media and this forum ..... I know how to Block posters ... how does one block entire Threads?
Just don’t click on them.

LRC1962

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2024, 07:58:19 PM »
Going back I think almost 30 years ago, I knew a lady who part of her PhD work, I believe, memory is fuzzy on that, was tracting all the space junk. Imagine what it is like now. The reason for it was not only the junk falling the earth, but even a bigger problem was active satellites getting hit and potentially knocking them down to earth.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

be cause

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2024, 09:05:44 AM »
I should split the difference .. rfh1960 .

 I once thought I was witnessing the end of the world , but it turned out to be a whole bunch of junk that flew overhead , impressive fireball and multiple sonic booms . Freaked the pheasants too .:)
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

Sigmetnow

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2024, 10:32:48 PM »
The U.S. Space Surveillance Network tracks satellites, space debris and other objects in lower orbits, and Deep Space objects, generally asteroids and comets. 
 
Satellite operators communicate with each other to jointly mitigate potential collisions by altering their satellites’ orbits when necessary.  Some operators make their orbital data publicly available.
 
Newer satellites such as Starlink “autonomously maneuver to avoid collisions with orbital debris and other spacecraft. This capability reduces human error and provides exceptional reliability, exceeding the industry standard by an order of magnitude.”
https://www.starlink.com/technology

A few links:
 
U.S.:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Space_Surveillance_Network

https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov

ESA:
https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Surveillance_and_Tracking_-_SST_Segment

Global, on 𝕏:
Astronomer Jonathan McDowell  https://x.com/planet4589

 
=====

Pails into insignificance to the endless Debris being dumped on our heads through the internet, the media and this forum ..... I know how to Block posters ... how does one block entire Threads?
Just don’t click on them.
 
Don’t. Look. Up.
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morganism

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2024, 11:11:02 PM »
Moment part a CHINESE rocket explodes over California after rouge reentry through Earth's atmosphere - months after spy balloon fiasco         (hours after a SpaceX launch at Vandenburg)

    A rocket exploded over California as it reentered the Earth's atmosphere
    The rocket is the Chinese-owned Shenzhou-15 orbital module

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13267795/Chinese-rocket-explodes-California-reentry-Earth.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2024, 06:12:19 PM »
March 8, 2024.  See post #1 above. A large battery pallet released from the ISS in 2021 reentered the atmosphere. 
Now it appears a piece of that debris came down in Florida.
Quote
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
The EP-9 equipment pallet reentered at 1929 UTC over the Gulf of Mexico between Cancun and Cuba. This was witih the previous prediction window but a little to the northeast of the 'most likely' part of the path. A couple minutes later reentry and it would have reached Ft Myers
3/8/24, 4:18 PM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1766211941922415053
 
 
Alejandro Otero
Hello. Looks like one of those pieces missed Ft Myers and landed in my house in Naples.
Tore through the roof and went thru 2 floors. Almost [hit] my son.
Can you please assist with getting NASA to connect with me? I’ve left messages and emails without a response.
3/15/24, https://x.com/alejandro0tero/status/1768729031493427225
⬇️ Photos below, more at the link pic.twitter.com/Yi29f3EwyV 
 
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
NASA are not the right people to contact. I have passed on this to the experts at the Aerospace Corporation who study this sort of thing.
3/15/24, https://x.com/planet4589/status/1768790542224068738

 
Space Junk Just Fell on Your Home, Now What?
A Florida man, whose home was hit by apparent space junk faced a struggle to be heard, raising questions about the correct procedures and accountability.
Quote
On March 8, a small, cylinder-shaped object fell from the skies and crashed through the roof of a family home in Naples, Florida. Alejandro Otero, the homeowner, suspected it came from space but he wasn’t sure what he needed to do get NASA’s attention and be taken seriously.

“Who do you call, right?” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center, who tracks atmospheric reentries, told Gizmodo. McDowell was contacted by Florida homeowner Otero on X, and in turn helped him get in touch with someone at The Aerospace Corporation, a non-profit research and development center.

“There is no standard protocol to report suspected space debris,” The Aerospace Corporation told Gizmodo in an emailed statement. “Aerospace has, on several occasions, been asked to forward information to the appropriate government organization, as was the case here.”

NASA and the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command are the most common U.S. organizations that handle these events, the statement added.

The Aerospace Corporation investigates reentry debris and, according to McDowell, “know what they’re doing.” And because “they’re a small enough organization, that query won’t get lost, unlike at NASA,” he added. Therefore, that would be a good place to start.


In the case of Otero, for example, the Florida homeowner might be seeking compensation from NASA for the damage done to his home. In response to Gizmodo’s request for comment, Otero’s lawyer reached out on his behalf and stated that there is a pending claim.

In terms of who’s liable in that case, that’s up for question since the batteries were launched to the space station by the Japanese space agency JAXA. It’s not immediately clear who should be responsible for the potential damage caused by the space debris.


“As space activity increases, you worry that you’re going to see more of this,” McDowell said. “On the other hand, people are getting more conservative about letting big things like [the ISS pallet] reenter. I would say it’s an ongoing risk, but I’m hoping that we won’t see a big increase in it, even as activity ramps up,” he added. …
https://gizmodo.com/space-junk-florida-iss-damage-protocols-liability-1851385397

 
It’s becoming a business!  Several companies are working on small “space tug” craft that could approach and attach to dead satellites and help control their reentry.  SpaceX has long shown a “chomper” version of Starship (see below) and said it would be possible to capture large objects and return them to earth.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2024, 03:15:21 PM »
Quote
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
 
A 1-tonne Vostok-2M upper stage launched by the USSR in Dec 1970 reentered on Apr 6 over Antarctica after 53.5 years in orbit.
 
4/6/24, 11:39 PM. https://x.com/planet4589/status/1776817089761665042
 
< Do the “pulses” in its descent correlate to years of increased solar activity?
JM: Exactly
 
<< It went from 400km to burnup in like a year? 😮
JM:  Yep, that's solar max atmospheric density for you

JM: Space Force TIP estimate is 29.4W 75.0S in the Weddell Sea. Rough trajectory estimate shown here
 
4/7/24, 12:05 AM  https://x.com/planet4589/status/1776823543348559958
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morganism

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2024, 11:09:37 PM »
Nasa ‘shocked’ by how close Russian spacecraft came to hitting satellite

A Russian satellite was just metres from hitting a Nasa counterpart in a “shocking” near-miss that could have put lives at risk, the US space agency has claimed.

Pam Melroy, the deputy administrator of Nasa, said experts had been “really scared” by the incident on Feb 28 because it was not possible to manoeuvre either satellite.

The narrow escape happened when the defunct Russian spy satellite Cosmos 2221 drifted uncomfortably close to Nasa’s Timed (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics) satellite, which monitors Earth’s atmosphere.

Colonel Melroy, a former astronaut, said that if the satellites had collided it would have led to thousands of bullet-fast pieces of debris shooting around Earth and warned the issue was ‘‘monumental’’.

Speaking at the Space Foundation’s Space Symposium in Colorado, she said: “It was very shocking personally and for all of us at Nasa.

“On February 28 a Nasa spacecraft called Timed and a Russian satellite, neither of them manoeuvrable, were expected to make a close path

“We recently learnt that the path ended up being less than 10 metres apart, less than the distance of me to the front row.

“Had the two satellites collided we would have seen debris generation, tiny shards travelling at 10,000 miles per hour, waiting to puncture a hole in another spacecraft and potentially putting human lives at risk.

“It’s kind of sobering to think that something that’s the size of the eraser on the end of your pencil could wreak such havoc – but it can. We’re all worried about this. Timed really scared us.”


On Tuesday, Nasa launched its Space Sustainability Strategy, which aims to better map and monitor satellites and debris, and keep orbits as clear as possible.

There are currently more than 10,000 satellites orbiting the Earth – a four-fold increase since 2019 – and numbers are set to grow exponentially.

Some 400,000 satellites have been approved globally for low Earth orbit, with SpaceX alone poised to launch another 44,000 for its Starlink internet constellation.

Experts have predicted that once all the planned internet constellations are operational there will be around 16,000 decaying satellites at any one time that will need to come out of orbit.

A Russian satellite was just metres from hitting a Nasa counterpart in a “shocking” near-miss that could have put lives at risk, the US space agency has claimed.

Pam Melroy, the deputy administrator of Nasa, said experts had been “really scared” by the incident on Feb 28 because it was not possible to manoeuvre either satellite.

The narrow escape happened when the defunct Russian spy satellite Cosmos 2221 drifted uncomfortably close to Nasa’s Timed (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics) satellite, which monitors Earth’s atmosphere.

Colonel Melroy, a former astronaut, said that if the satellites had collided it would have led to thousands of bullet-fast pieces of debris shooting around Earth and warned the issue was ‘‘monumental’’.

Speaking at the Space Foundation’s Space Symposium in Colorado, she said: “It was very shocking personally and for all of us at Nasa.

“On February 28 a Nasa spacecraft called Timed and a Russian satellite, neither of them manoeuvrable, were expected to make a close path

“We recently learnt that the path ended up being less than 10 metres apart, less than the distance of me to the front row.

“Had the two satellites collided we would have seen debris generation, tiny shards travelling at 10,000 miles per hour, waiting to puncture a hole in another spacecraft and potentially putting human lives at risk.

“It’s kind of sobering to think that something that’s the size of the eraser on the end of your pencil could wreak such havoc – but it can. We’re all worried about this. Timed really scared us.”


On Tuesday, Nasa launched its Space Sustainability Strategy, which aims to better map and monitor satellites and debris, and keep orbits as clear as possible.

There are currently more than 10,000 satellites orbiting the Earth – a four-fold increase since 2019 – and numbers are set to grow exponentially.

Some 400,000 satellites have been approved globally for low Earth orbit, with SpaceX alone poised to launch another 44,000 for its Starlink internet constellation.

Experts have predicted that once all the planned internet constellations are operational there will be around 16,000 decaying satellites at any one time that will need to come out of orbit.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-spacecraft-near-miss-nasa-143230973.html


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/28/european-space-agency-aeolus-weather-satellite-return-earth/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2024, 02:52:51 AM »
Astroscale’s ADRAS-J mission enters next phase in orbit
Jeff Foust April 12, 2024
Quote
COLORADO SPRINGS — Astroscale is moving into the next phase of an inspection mission as its spacecraft approaches a derelict upper stage in low Earth orbit.

Astroscale announced April 11 that its Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan (ADRAS-J) spacecraft, launched Feb. 18, had moved to within several hundred kilometers of an upper stage from an H-2A launch in 2009 left in low Earth orbit and was now relying on its own sensors to continue its approach.


The mission milestone was a switch from absolute navigation, where the spacecraft was maneuvered by ground controllers based on knowledge of its position as well as that of the upper stage, to “Angles-Only Navigation,” where ADRAS-J detected the upper stage using onboard cameras and calculated its relative position.

“The goal here is proving out those core capabilities for on-orbit servicing but also as a precursor for the second phase,” he said. That second phase would be to send a spacecraft to capture and deorbit the stage.

The Japanese government, which awarded Astroscale a contract for ADRAS-J in 2020, has yet to select a company to perform that second stage, although it has given Astroscale a study contract for it. Blackerby said he expected JAXA to announce a contract soon, which would allow the mission to fly in the next two years.

While ADRAS-J and a potential second phase mission are part of the Japanese space agency JAXA’s Commercial Removal of Debris Demonstration, the technologies being demonstrated have broader applicability, he said. “We’re not just going up there to grab the debris. We’re going up there to prove that we can do this approach and capture, and can then do a whole host of things: refuel, repair, relocate, remove.”

ADRAS-J is one of several projects in development by Astroscale, based on Tokyo and with offices in several countries, including the United Kingdom and United States. Among them are ELSA-M, a spacecraft that will dock with a OneWeb satellite and remove it from orbit; Life Extension In-Orbit, or LEXI, which will dock with GEO satellites to provide maneuvering and attitude control; and a prototype of a refueling spacecraft being developed under a U.S. Space Force contract.

Technologies being demonstrated on ADRAS-J will be used on missions being developed by Astroscale’s U.K. and U.S. businesses, within export control restrictions. “The whole point of having a global company is being able to share best practices, and to be able to share resources and technologies among the team so that they can improve those missions,” he said.

Blackerby, who just completed a term as president of the satellite servicing trade group CONFERS, said he has been pleased by progress in some of the countries Astroscale operates in to address regulatory uncertainty for the field, such as changes in mission licensing regimes in Japan and the five-year deorbit rule adopted by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission in 2022.

CONFERS now has 82 members, which he sees as a sign of the growing interest in satellite servicing. However, he argued that will require continued government support in terms of regulations as well as missions like the JAXA-sponsored ADRAS-J.

“What’s going to keep all of those companies alive and keep this whole industry moving? It’s going to be interest and involvement from government agencies,” he said. “We’re seeing the interest in terms of both shaping regulations and policies and putting money in budgets to start proving this out.”…
https://spacenews.com/astroscales-adras-j-mission-enters-next-phase/

⬇️ Graphs of the two craft by Jonathan McDowell @planet4589
— Here is height vs time pic.twitter.com/eg6Tze6l9a 
— Here is separation of the two vehicles vs time pic.twitter.com/1Oi2GkW9ze 
 
And: An illustration of Astroscale’s ADRAS-J inspector satellite approaching an H-2A upper stage in low Earth orbit. Credit: Astroscale
« Last Edit: April 13, 2024, 02:58:02 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Orbital Debris / Warnings
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2024, 02:41:39 AM »
March 8, 2024.  See post #1 above. A large battery pallet released from the ISS in 2021 reentered the atmosphere. 
Now it appears a piece of that debris came down in Florida. …

Marcia Smith @SpcPlcyOnline
NASA confirms that the object that hit a house in Naples, FL was indeed from the ISS battery pallet that they expected to completely disintegrate during reentry.
4/15/24, 5:13 PM. https://x.com/spcplcyonline/status/1779981435996188720

NASA Completes Analysis of Recovered Space Object
April 15, 2024
Quote
… the agency determined the debris to be a stanchion from the NASA flight support equipment used to mount the batteries on the cargo pallet. The object is made of the metal alloy Inconel, weighs 1.6 pounds, is 4 inches in height and 1.6 inches in diameter. …
https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2024/04/15/nasa-completes-analysis-of-recovered-space-object/
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