The 2024 Antarctic Freezing Season

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Per discussion in the melting season thread, here is the new freezing discussion page since Antarctic sea ice is off to the races for the refreeze. I’m personally very interested whether the initial recovery momentum holds on, or if these sort of bursts post-minimum are more a function of greater areas of cooling open water in pole-proximal seas. I’m also hoping that we might get some publications sooner than later providing insight into some of the recent melt season action down south.

[kiwichick16]

current sea ice....

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice/

[gerontocrat]

Per discussion in the melting season thread, here is the new freezing discussion page since Antarctic sea ice is off to the races for the refreeze. I’m personally very interested whether the initial recovery momentum holds on, or if these sort of bursts post-minimum are more a function of greater areas of cooling open water in pole-proximal seas. I’m also hoping that we might get some publications sooner than later providing insight into some of the recent melt season action down south.

A large proportion of Antarctic sea ice gains comes from the Ross Sea. At the moment looks like it may be more than "a function of greater areas of cooling open water in pole-proximal seas".

[oren]

Thanks for starting the thread.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

All-time heat record at French Antarctic territories: https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1776363251195892051

[kassy]

In the Crozet islands which are sort of halfway between Antarctica and Madagascar.

[Stephan]

...which might therefore better be transferred into the "heat wave" or "extreme temperatures" thread ?

[oren]

Too difficult to move posts across moderator jurisdictions. Will leave it be, but to all please avoid off topic posts.

[gerontocrat]

Maybe there is a correlation between Antarctic SATs and Antarctic sea ice area daily gains (and losses)

The graph attached roughly matches Antarctic SATs (2023 and 2024 (black)) to Antarctic sea ice area gains for the period late April to mid July - click to enlarge

Maybe I'll think about extracting the numbers for the two variables

[kassy]

The gains are now low for a number of days. Are the seas around Antarctica relatively hot? Transpolar winds slacking? Something else?

[gerontocrat]

The gains are now low for a number of days. Are the seas around Antarctica relatively hot? Transpolar winds slacking? Something else?

Not a clue... but at the moment looks like maximum area and extent could be heading to be in the bottom 5 of the 46 year satellite record.

I thought high circumpolar winds tend to bring warmth closer to the Antarctic shoreline.

Antarctic (66.5 to 90 South) SATs are quite high (as at 29th May)
Offshore there are quite high +ve SAT anomalies (as at 3rd June) in the Ross, Indian Ocean and Amundsen regions where sea ice area is reducing.

Todays one-day NSIDC area and extent graphs show that both are currently more than 2SD below the 2000-2019 average.

click images to enlarge

[uniquorn]

https://det.social/@ZLabe@fediscience.org/112716707123778301

SIC anomaly jun

Last month observed substantial departures in #Antarctic sea ice, which were particularly focused around the Indian Ocean sector and near the Ross/Amundsen Seas. This is a different spatial pattern compared to last year.

[kassy]

Looking back at the recent past.

The “climatic surprise” in Rio Grande do Sul was likely influenced by another phenomenon (and this one is indeed unprecedented): the anomalous behavior of the South Atlantic anticyclone. This system, a large circle of winds that move in a counterclockwise direction, underwent a radical change beginning in 2023 (Figure 6). The South Atlantic anticyclone index remained at a practically constant level over the 43-year period from 1979 to 2022, after which it has oscillated radically. This anticyclone circles around the South Atlantic high-pressure cell.

And see figure 6.

https://news.mongabay.com/2024/07/climate-surprises-amazonia-and-the-lessons-of-brazils-catastrophic-flood-in-rio-grande-do-sul-commentary/

I guess lot´s of ice had to melt to trigger this? Or is it something else? It did not quite settle.

[Yuha]

Gero is reporting on significant sea ice losses in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific regions:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg405939.html#msg405939

This is probably caused by the stratospheric warming event over those regions that HapHazard mentioned a few days ago:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,520.msg405642.html#msg405642

[gerontocrat]

Images attached seem to show a correlation between sea ice change and SATs