When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2024?

[Jim Hunt]

For the purposes of this poll "open" counts as <= 6/10 sea ice concentration on the Canadian Ice Service charts along the entire length of one of the assorted routes through the CAA:



"Travers[ing] the Northwest Passage" implies without the assistance of an icebreaker!

In the likely event of a "tie break" being required, which of the assorted routes shown on the map above will "open" first?

[Jim Hunt]

The Canadian Ice Service has already started daily coverage of the heart of the southern route through the Northwest Passage. There's plenty of open water in Lancaster Sound, and low concentration sea ice in Prince Regent Inlet.

Further south there is also open water in the Coronation Gulf, but the fast ice between Peel Sound and King William Island has not yet started breaking up:

Although not yet subject to CIS daily charts, MODIS reveals that the exit of the northern route via McClure Strait into the Beaufort Sea is already navigable.

[John_the_Younger]

I'll go with Route 1 (early August)

[HapHazard]

I'm going canoeing August 16 - 31, route 1.

(actually I'll be in Tuktoyaktuk 2 weeks before that!)

[oren]

In spite of the well known fact that "It's always Bellot Strait", I'll take the main channel route 1 this year, first half of August. The ice is weak since last year, got some early heat, and has been breaking up on both ends of the Parry channel.

[uniquorn]

130km left to crack in the Parry channel..

[KenB]

I'm going to go with route 5 this year; I'm usually with 6, but the Queen Maud map this year shows a lot of near-open areas in the Victoria Strait.  Timing-wise, I think early August is most likely, though a warm second half of July might allow July 31 to sneak in.

[wallen]

Maybe a poll on which will open first. The NW passage or the NE passage

[Steven]

My guess is Route 6 before mid-August at latest.  Because everyone else voted for August, I chose the July bin in the poll

I expect all routes will open this season.  Large parts of Route 1 in Parry Channel are already open or breaking up as others noticed.  Sea ice extent and area for the CAA are at (near-)record low levels.

[Jim Hunt]

Here's the latest CIS weekly stage of development chart.

My guess is Route 6 before mid-August at latest.  Because everyone else voted for August, I chose the July bin in the poll

Avoiding the old ice on route 1, I'll plump for route 6 in the first half of April!

[Jim Hunt]

Here's the latest CIS weekly concentration chart.

And now noting my prior typo, first half of August!

[KenB]

Here's the latest CIS weekly concentration chart.

Curiously, the daily charts for 7/25 show no forecast for the west side of the "Approaches to Resolute" map and no chart at all for "Queen Maud."  Wonder what's up?

[Jim Hunt]

The CIS state that:

This ice information is updated daily in areas of known marine activity. In remaining Canadian waters, ice information is updated weekly from the regional charts which are issued at the end of the day every Wednesday.

Perhaps they don't know of any "marine activity" in the Queen Maud region? On the other hand Healy has entered McClure Strait today, so:

[oren]

I know this can't be an official assessment, and that the actual ice condition differs from that seen on AMSR2, but it still does seem very close to being open in the layman's view of things, except a couple of points in the middle of the passage.
I still think route 1 will officially open very early this year.

[Steven]

Indeed, increasing areas of open water in the CAA according to AMSR2 (which can interpret thin wet low-concentration ice as open water but is still useful).  There's colder weather forecast there for the next 7+ days, but given the state the ice is in, an early opening of the routes may still be possible.

[gerontocrat]

Attached image is from the gif posted by Feegrass date 27th July

2nd image from univ. bremen for 26th July.

Route 1 so nearly there, but will sea ice push in from the North and fill it up?

[Jim Hunt]

Route 1 so nearly there, but will sea ice push in from the North and fill it up?

I've been wondering that myself:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2024/#Jul-27

Another possible “choke point” evident on the AMSR2 image lies between Bathurst Island and Prince of Wales Island. Unfortunately the Canadian Ice Service is not currently providing daily coverage of that region, the skies above Viscount Melville Sound are cloudy and recent Sentinel 1 imagery also doesn’t cover the whole area...

The current winds are generally northerly. Those winds may open up a passage through Viscount Melville Sound, but they may also close McClure Strait!

[jdallen]

Attached image is from the gif posted by Feegrass date 2th July

2nd image from univ. bremen for 26th July.

Route 1 so nearly there, but will sea ice push in from the North and fill it up?

Looks like I may have been *way* too conservative in my estimate of when it would open…

[icy voyeur2]

Looks like I may have been *way* too conservative in my estimate of when it would open…

I've been spying this for about 6 weeks and my sense has been that while there may be a lucky window at the end of July, I'd risk a ship by circa mid Aug. Still an early opening but the last few weeks have been somewhat slow compared to the best/(worst?) case scenario.

[Jim Hunt]

It looks as though the western exit from McClure Strait is currently blocked:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2024/#Jul-29

[KenB]

Considering the rules:

"For the purposes of this poll "open" counts as <= 6/10 sea ice concentration on the Canadian Ice Service charts along the entire length of one of the assorted routes through the CAA"

and that the CIS charts are generally updated on Wed. evenings, the late July opening still has a ghost of a chance, but right now, there's no Queen Maud chart, nor any M'Clure Strait chart, that I can find.  There was a Q.M. chart earlier but, as of 7/25, it's been replaced by one with the "this chart is not available" marking.  The M.S. chart that I see is dated on 7/28, but has the same notation. 

Might they both get updated with concentration info on the evening of the 31st?  Could get interesting!

[oren]

If a NWP opens but no one is there to chart it in CIS, is it really open?

[oren]

It's nearly there. The only thing preventing a fully open route 1 is export from the Beaufort. Of course, this export could continue for a while.

[Jim Hunt]

Considering the rules:

We may have to start drawing our own charts! The weekly chart dated July 29th should be published tomorrow. However there is a CIS chart showing route 1 still officially "closed" yesterday.

There's also a chart for part of the Queen Maud region:

[blu_ice]

If a NWP opens but no one is there to chart it in CIS, is it really open?

Yes it is

The team of www.alluringarctic.com is currently heading east off Utqiagvik attempting to sail to Greenland through the NWP.

They post regular video updates on their social media channels. Go check it our for near live videos from the Arctic.

[Jim Hunt]

The team of www.alluringarctic.com is currently heading east off Utqiagvik attempting to sail to Greenland through the NWP.

The latest CIS chart still shows an area of 7-8/10 ice blocking Barrow Strait near Resolute, although somehow I doubt that SV Lumi is intending to take route 1!

News of assorted other vessels, large and small, attempting the Northwest Passage this year can be seen at:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2024/

[icy voyeur2]

The team of www.alluringarctic.com is currently heading east off Utqiagvik attempting to sail to Greenland through the NWP.

They post regular video updates on their social media channels. Go check it our for near live videos from the Arctic.

They'll be sailing into the wind for at least the first week.

[Jim Hunt]

It doesn't qualify as a "small vessel", but the cruise ship National Geographic Resolution is currently heading from east to west through the Bellot Strait:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2024/#Jul-31

Perhaps that will persuade the Canadian Ice Service to release a daily chart for the Queen Maud Gulf later today?

P.S. The weekly chart still shows a blockage across the McClure Strait:

[Jim Hunt]

The CIS have produced a daily chart for the Queen Maud region!

It shows route 6 still waiting for James Ross Strait to open up, and a narrow channel of navigable ice past Cornwallis Island on route 1.

Hopefully a satellite or two will provide some information in the near future on the current state of the ice in McClure Strait.

[oren]

This is the AWI AMSR2 screenshot for the 31st. using my layman's method I am calling route 1 closed, but just by a thread in McClure.
Seems voting for early Aug was correct after all, but it turned out to be nearly too cautious, rather than bold as would be usual.

[KenB]

I'm sticking with route 5 on principle, though I think both 6 and 1 have very good chances.  Timing-wise, I think we're down to a few days, a week at most. 

[icy voyeur2]

Not much of a prediction at this point but it seems likely to me that all routes will potentially be open by Aug 15. When's the last time that happened?

[Jim Hunt]

This is the AWI AMSR2 screenshot for the 31st. using my layman's method I am calling route 1 closed, but just by a thread in McClure.

Here's Worldview AMSR2 too. If MODIS and AMSR2 both suggest that it's closed you can be pretty sure it really is closed:

https://go.nasa.gov/4fsGzuv

[Jim Hunt]

I'm sticking with route 5 on principle, though I think both 6 and 1 have very good chances.  Timing-wise, I think we're down to a few days, a week at most.

It certainly looks as though the majority will be correct on the timing. I'm sticking with route 6!

Here's James Ross Strait from Sentinel 1 on July 31st:

[Jim Hunt]

NG Resolution has reached James Ross Strait:

[HapHazard]

Route 1 was open a few days ago, as per my canoe trip to Tuktoyaktuk. Just sayin'.

[NeilT]

It would just underscore the whole out of norm situation this year if Route 1 opened first.

[gerontocrat]

Route 1 was open a few days ago, as per my canoe trip to Tuktoyaktuk. Just sayin'.

A kayak or a canoe (birchbark? sealskin?) don't qualify as a "small vessel" in the definition used in this thread which is "  ??  " - Jim Hunt, where are you?

[KenB]

8/2/24 Queen Maud chart puts both routes 5 and 6 really close to open - maybe 5 just a bit closer than 6.  One more update might do the trick.

[Jim Hunt]

Jim Hunt, where are you?

A canoe/kayak made of whatever material counts as a "very small vessel". See for example the "Arctic Cowboys" expedition last summer:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2023/#Aug-26

Somewhat larger is Hermione, who has just restarted her east to west NWP voyage after spending the winter in Cambridge Bay:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2024/#Aug-03

[Jim Hunt]

8/2/24 Queen Maud chart puts both routes 5 and 6 really close to open

[Steven]

After the cold weather of the last week or two, warmer weather is forecast for the CAA over the next 7 days. Maybe this will cause the last ice blockages to melt and allow the routes to "officially" open?

[Jim Hunt]

The skies have cleared over the route 5/6 "choke point". Let's see what the CIS make of it a bit later on. Amongst other things the exit from Bellot Strait looks distinctly blocked to me, as does Peel Sound:

[oren]

I now think route 2 could open first, with the imported ice arm still blocking at the McClure exit.

[oren]

I would guess Route 2 still not officially open, but it's not very far from it using my layman metric. I'd give it a couple of days.

[Jim Hunt]

I would guess Route 2 still not officially open, but it's not very far from it using my layman metric.

However unfortunately AMSR2 misses lots of ice that could sink a "small vessel".

Here's the CIS chart for Resolute from the 4th, Sentinel 1 from the 3rd and the north coast of Alaska on the 2nd:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2024/#Aug-03

[Jim Hunt]

Assorted "pleasure craft" are approaching the CAA. Here are the current leaders, Lumina from the east and Lumi from the west:

[Jim Hunt]

Prince of Wales Strait yesterday, courtesy of Sentinel 1.

None of the other routes are open yet either:

[NeilT]

I was looking at the ice thickness animation Freegras posted on the melting thread.  It looks very much like the 2m+ ice is draining through the CAA and heading for the NWP.  That's going to gum things up for a bit.

Fixed the 3m down to 2m.

[Steven]

I was looking at the ice thickness animation Freegras posted on the melting thread.  It looks very much like the 3m+ ice is draining through the CAA and heading for the NWP.

The hycom sea ice thickness animation should not be used for that.  That model has been showing incessant Garlic Press in the last few months because it cannot model landfast ice properly...