How many SIMB3 buoys will drift into the Nares Strait?

[uniquorn]

Posts under last year's poll may help though drift differs every year.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3927.0.html

Floes are small in the Lincoln sea so not much resistance to wind, ocean currents and tides imo.
Active buoys are shown in red.

data is available every 4hrs from https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

[oren]

For lack of anything much to go on, I voted for 2.
I note on Worldview that in the past few days certain blocks in the Lincoln Sea just north of Greenland moved westwards by 30km, with 120km still to go. But it takes time and any shift in wind draws the victims away from the funnel. It ain't easy to clear the Lincoln via this rather narrow opening, while the huge Fram awaits to the east.

[uniquorn]

I voted for 1 though may change over the next 2 weeks.
Not much to go on: The old WHOI annual drift arrows may offer some clues. A couple of IABP buoys drifted into Nares in 2010.

[uniquorn]

Low concentration ice around 2024L in the Lincoln Sea. Even lower in some areas further north and east.

https://go.nasa.gov/4dnuogI  medium contrast

[uniquorn]

Still 2 candidates that may drift into the Nares Strait.

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060108870

2024R
Ice Thickness 2.4m
Snow Depth 26cm

Description
On a hummocky multiyear floe. Has thicker appearance than other floes we’ve been on during ARCSIX deployments due to substantially hummocked surface, expecting this floe to be thicker and older, but it but drills about the same - 2.5 m. Maybe deformation is the basis of the higher hummocks, or maybe this ice is just older and several years of surface melt have deepened its topography but not thickened it. Equipped with SNOTATOES.

currently 1.92m thick, roughly 14cm snow

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060049130

2024N
Ice Thickness 1.89m
Snow Depth 41cm

Description
Mostly FYI floe w/ MY inclusion at one edge. High thickness variability. 4 m thick just 30 feet from buoy. Seems likely to be rafted ice under the MY portion of the floe. Decided to put buoy into the high thickness variability MYI anyhow because FY looks at risk of becoming a big melt pond. The thickness at deployment site in the MY was a bit more than the ~1.5 m avg of the FYI floe portion we landed on, and fresh ice in upper portion of the drill hole confirms MY.

currently 1.24m thick, roughly 30cm snow

[uniquorn]

2024N looking certain to enter the Nares Strait now.
Notice how bottom melt increases as it drifts over the shelf break on oct7 and again to a lesser extent on oct17. Likely to be ablation since then.
https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060049130

cmems temperature at 10m depth models some upwelling along the shelf break.
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/pjaet61f0z

[uniquorn]

2024N drifted 12.5km closer to the Nares Strait over the last 9 days, losing another 2cm to bottom melt or ablation detected on nov19.

62km/h wind on oct31 appears to have blown away all of the 10cm snow layer causing some temporary cooling of the ice surface down to 40cm depth until heavier snowfall and/or drift of 30cm provided more insulation, allowing it to warm again.

96.6km to go.

[uniquorn]

Strong south westerlies pushed 2024N further from the Nares entrance yesterday but its fate is sealed. radarsat updated over the Lincoln Sea today so we can take a look at the floe

20241122:12   1732276830   83.262168   -59.333444

3 areas of open water to the north of 2024N and no northern arch though there may be some fast ice to the east, narrowing the entrance. Location is white dot on first image, centre of circle on the second.

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060049130
https://go.nasa.gov/3OiyQDc

[oren]

The above is quite interesting. I would have expected a floe this far north in the 2nd half of November to actually thicken, certainly not lose thickness consistently. Just shows the limits of my knowledge.
Also I would have given up on this floe entering the Nares, but it managed to backtrack nicely and make it to the shallower region, where the mostly constant current should have an easier time carrying it towards the point of no return.

[uniquorn]

The above is quite interesting. I would have expected a floe this far north in the 2nd half of November to actually thicken, certainly not lose thickness consistently. Just shows the limits of my knowledge.

Lincoln Sea shelf break may be a special case with warmer returning Atlantic waters being forced nearer to the surface as they enter the strait.

Also I would have given up on this floe entering the Nares, but it managed to backtrack nicely and make it to the shallower region, where the mostly constant current should have an easier time carrying it towards the point of no return.

Highly likely that 2024R north of Ellesmere Island will also drift back to enter the Nares if it survives. It thickened 2cm on nov21.
https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060108870

Definitely not fast ice at the Nares entrance 
https://go.nasa.gov/3Omfa11  nov23-24

[uniquorn]

rammb of Lincoln Sea showing some tidal motion.
https://col.st/ah2Bj

4 iabp buoys in the area. 2024N is turquoise, 2024R is orange, WHOI ITP115 is brown with an SVP buoy in black.
https://iabp.apl.uw.edu/IABP_Maps.html

closer look at 2024N with distance travelled in 4hr annotation.

[uniquorn]

update on SIMB3 2024N. Ice thickness increased rapidly over nov27-30 from 1.27m to 1.38m peaking briefly at 1.42m. Maybe some bottom ridging or perhaps there was some ablation local to the buoy that rapidly refroze.
The second animation details the distance over 4hr in metres'
Looking at drift distance over 4hrs from nov23 when it was relatively static we see many distances of 200-400m, possibly tidal motion. 2024N is still 113km from the entrance.
https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060049130

Nares is still open for export.
https://go.nasa.gov/3D3A1nG dec1-5

[uniquorn]

rammb of Lincoln sea, 2024N very rough location as black dot.
https://col.st/lH3YT

[oren]

Extremely interesting.
It does appear destined for Nares, eventurally. Thebpull of the funnel, as can be seem in Rambb, nearly reaches the current buoy location.
The thickness addition seems too sudden for a purely thermodynamic process, so some mechanical or local event doea seem like a more plausible explanation. .