Places becoming less livable

[opensheart]

How about a thread for stories/new clips about places that are becoming less livable.

I would start with these two:
I wonder if the picture in the first one is really a picture of current conditions in Phoenix, AZ.

http://www.dailyimpact.net/2013/07/09/phoenix-falling/
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620#ixzz2YXv4B8mL

[JimD]

A fun topic, but it will get some kick back you know as everything depends on when it happens.

Miami is toast eventually along with a lot of south Florida.  But will a big population decrease occur any time in the next 20-30 years?

Phoenix I know a lot about as I live near there and my daughter has been a resident for a long time.  Phoenix has 2 issues that determine its livability.  Water and Air Conditioning.  Dust storms are just a nuisance there like they are in Saudi Arabia.  Water would seem to be the short straw, but if you really look at supplies and use there is a lot of slack in the system.  Water usage rates in the "Valley" where Phoenix and the suburbs are located is very high and conservation alone (when it becomes required) would extend available water out a long ways.  I have no idea what the actual number of swimming pools in the Valley are but I would bet that it is in the 50,000 range.  And who knows how many golf courses there are.  And many knuckleheads still have lawns and such.  There is enough water supply now,  if it was conserved, to support 2 times as many people than they have now.  Everything really depends on the snow pack that feeds the Colorado River and the seasonal monsoons.  When those fail (as they will) times get tough as it will not be just water that runs short but power from the dams.  Now if they get off their rear and build up solar they can avoid the loss of electricity from hydro and extend AC out indefinitely and we are back to just water.   Best guess is that Phoenix will be at least the same size it is now when Miami is abandoned.  BTW, if you have never been there when it is hot, 110F in Phoenix seems like about 98 F on a muggy day in Washington DC as the humidity is so low.

Here is an article that talks about a lot of places that are having problems including problems.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/77841/global-warming-threatens-coastal-cities

[wili]

Kuritiba, parts of Marshal and Solomon Islands...

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/07/solomon-islands-prime-minister-it-is.html

...

[Superman1]

JimD,

"Best guess is that Phoenix will be at least the same size it is now when Miami is abandoned."  Some recent articles on Phoenix real estate show the values rebounding ferociously.  Not what one would expect from a city about to be abandoned.

[JimD]

Superman1

Very true.

BTW my daughter and I got on Google Earth and played around a bit.  My estimate of 50,000 swimming pools in the Valley where Phoenix is located is WAY off.  More like 200,000.  Not to mention the artificial lake developments. A house on the water with a dock and boat in the desert.  We could start a fish farming industry.

I went to one of the giant pools in Mesa this weekend to swim laps.  It was about 110 F.  I dehydrated in about 30 mins.  Ugly. Then we had a dust storm.  Then a big thunderstorm.

[Shared Humanity]

Water would seem to be the short straw, but if you really look at supplies and use there is a lot of slack in the system.  Water usage rates in the "Valley" where Phoenix and the suburbs are located is very high and conservation alone (when it becomes required) would extend available water out a long ways.  I have no idea what the actual number of swimming pools in the Valley are but I would bet that it is in the 50,000 range.  And who knows how many golf courses there are.  And many knuckleheads still have lawns and such.  There is enough water supply now,  if it was conserved, to support 2 times as many people than they have now.

I am certain you are right that if water use was restricted to necessary use, there would be no water shortage. It is a mistake, however, to consider water in isolation. 10% of employment in Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale is in the leisure and hospitality industries. Another 5% is in construction, dependent in no small part to it being a favorite retirement location. Neither of these will do well if pools and golf courses were to disappear. And I bet most of those knuckleheads with bluegrass lawns are those transplanted northerners who have retired there.

The impact of having much or most of these two industries disappear would be devastating.

[JimD]

SH

True enough.  I expect the locals will pull out all stops to keep the leisure industry viable.  Most of the golf courses there are already watered with reclaimed water I have been told.  Lawns tend to be much more common in the affluent areas and also much bigger.  There are mansion houses with lawns of a acre or more and hotel sized swimming pools.  It just grates on my nerves I guess.  According to my daughter the percentage of 'green' pools is a lot less than a few years ago.  During the housing crash there were so many neglected pools growing algae and mosquitoes that the city had to fly around to find them and get after homeowners.  Still quite a few algae ponds.  Still think the fish farming might work Another funny thing she mentioned is that most people do not use their pools in the summer but rather in the other seasons of the year.  It is often just too hot in the summer to go outside I guess?  Or maybe the water is too hot?  The busy season (when all the snow-birds are there) is from fall to spring.  Prescott, where I live, is the opposite in that folks come from spring to fall for the cool summers.  Lots of well-off Phoenix residents have 2nd homes here (or 3rds).  We actually have a neighbor who reputedly owns 8 homes (no not John McCain he only owns 7)!  Their vacation home in Prescott cost 7 million to build (but it has all the latest energy efficient features....along with an indoor swimming pool to complement the approx. 8000 sq ft of living space).  Guess they're Green!

[Shared Humanity]

Jim D...

I have a sister who lives in Flagstaff. It is beautiful there.

[Superman1]

Shared Humanity,

I drove across country in late December 1959; three continuous days of snow!  I passed through Flagstaff, and it was snowing heavily.  The real shock: gas was 33 cents/gallon!!  I was used to paying about 21 cents per gallon on the East Coast.  Wondered how people could afford such high prices for gas.  Oh, how times have changed!!!

[pikaia]

The Alaskan village of Kivalina is due to disappear soon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23346370

[JimD]

In our little competition to figure out whether Miami or Phoenix is the first place abandoned in the US due to climate change Miami has another arrow in its quiver.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/us/where-sand-is-gold-the-coffers-are-running-dry-in-florida.html?_r=0

[Sigmetnow]

Huffington Post lists 14 U.S. cities that could be devastated over the next century due to rising tides.  (Yes, Miami is #1 in this list.)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/26/global-warming-flooding_n_3799019.html

[Anne]

Over on the Tibet thread I just posted about an excellent FT magazine article (sign up to read) relating to the degradation of the grasslands there and what the Chinese government has been attempting to do, including relocating herdsmen to towns, where they often fall into poverty. Some haunting photographs, too.

I guess the post could just as well have gone here, but here's a link.

[JimD]

Flood Insurance - is another factor which, at least in the US, has a big impact on whether a coastal location is "livable".

The below article refers to mostly Sandy locations and new flood insurance requirements.  However, this issue is cropping up all over the coastal locations which have been hit hard over the last decade.  I think the time is coming when, if your property is located in a very vulnerable coastal location, you will have to pay premiums which are an order of magnitude higher than today and maybe you will not be able to buy coverage at all.  When this happens the locations are functionally no longer livable except for the very wealthy who can self insure.

In New York City and New Jersey, the work began a few years before Hurricane Sandy struck on Oct. 29, 2012, damaging or destroying 365,000 homes in New Jersey and another 20,000 in New York City. After a public comment period, the region’s maps are expected to become final by mid-2015, putting into effect new insurance premiums.

The agency, which has released estimates showing that rates could range from a few hundred dollars for the most compliant residences to $1,800, $10,700 and more than $20,000, says individual premiums will vary and homeowners must consult an insurance agent to determine what they will pay.

Making matters worse for coastal homeowners, federally subsidized flood insurance for primary residences will start to phase out by late next year, eventually forcing about 1.1 million property owners to pay the substantially higher full-market rates. A law passed by Congress last summer eliminated subsidies for the National Flood Insurance Program, which is $24 billion in debt in the wake of massive storms such as Hurricane Katrina.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/03/20249654-20000-a-year-for-flood-insurance-sandy-survivors-face-tough-rebuilding-choices

[TerryM]

We're all aware of the effect that the failure of the Russian wheat crop had in the so called Arab Spring, but I'd been unaware of the effect of drought on the present situation in Syria until I read the following in section #6 of an article about the recent gas attack.

http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/your-labor-day-syria-reader-part-2-william-polk/279255/
"In some areas, all agriculture ceased.  In others crop failures reached 75%.  And generally as much as 85% of livestock died of thirst or hunger."
Terry

[wili]

Good catch, Terry.

 I remember seeing long-term drought maps that showed many of the Mediterranean countries that have been in financial distress as being in some stage of drying or drought, including Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (the famous 'PIGS'). But, iirc, Syria was among the worst hit, though many of the other MENA countries involved in the Arab Spring were in various stages. I haven't looked at drought maps from that region recently, though.

This general issue is something that needs much more press. Again, iirc, Somalia's severe political and economic turmoil was preceded by deforestation, drought and hence famine and conflict. One doesn't want to say that this is the only element, but certainly it should be more prominently covered, so people can see what is at stake in a climate-disrupted world.

[ccgwebmaster]

We're all aware of the effect that the failure of the Russian wheat crop had in the so called Arab Spring, but I'd been unaware of the effect of drought on the present situation in Syria until I read the following in section #6 of an article about the recent gas attack.

I've been seeing Syria as a good example of a heavily climate change influenced failure for some time now? (I'm actually a little surprised if it's news around here!)

(from Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists of all people, though perhaps apt enough)
http://thebulletin.org/climate-change-and-syrian-uprising

Even years after warnings were raised, the world is still apparently blind to the role climate change (and resource factors - water) played in destabilising Syria? It doesn't augur well that the original warnings were ignored - it augurs even less well that in several years the conflict is still seen as purely ideologically driven...

The conflict itself now drives elements of feedback and is increasing stress both within Syria and in adjoining regions, though I don't think the blue touch paper will be lit properly until the next shock (similar to the Russian grain embargo following their drought that contributed to the Arab spring) comes around.

Overall this year has been a pleasant surprise, in that we seem to have avoided such a triggering situation. The Arctic sea ice has done rather well too - one wonders if those two things are connected? Anyone know how fast changes in Arctic sea ice can be expected to feed through into weather effects? Or do we just take the view both are essentially subject to large amounts of random variation and not so tightly coupled?

[JimD]

Energy shortages force Pakistanis to scavenge for wood, threatening tree canopy

Ramesh Iqbal lives in one of the Pakistani capital’s middle-class neighborhoods and attends college. But on a recent day, he and two friends emerged from a wooded area, their arms full of the logs and branches they had gathered to warm their homes.

“We never thought we would face such a situation,” said Iqbal, 24, wearing a sweater over a collared shirt. “But due to winter, and cold, we are facing problems.”

Environmentalists and government officials fear Pakistan is now at a tipping point, having retained just 2 to 5 percent of its tree cover. Officials fear the deforestation will contribute to more lethal floods, disruptive landslides, bacteria-ridden drinking water and stifling air pollution. The country may also become more vulnerable to climate change.

“This is a very dangerous situation for Pakistan,” said Pervaiz Amir, a local forestry and agriculture expert. “The middle class are now cutting trees and burning trees.”

But convincing the public of the value of tree cover has been a tough sell, especially this year, when electricity is out for up to 10 hours each day and the natural gas supply is often too low to power heaters and stoves.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/energy-shortages-force-pakistanis-to-scavenge-for-wood-threatening-tree-canopy/2014/02/01/18c2107e-86a3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.html

[RaenorShine]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/25/china-toxic-air-pollution-nuclear-winter-scientists

China's toxic air pollution resembles nuclear winter, say scientists

Air pollution now impeding photosynthesis and potentially wreaking havoc on country's food supply, experts warn

[JimD]

The Marshall Islands

Hundreds of people who had to flee their houses earlier this week as flood waters tore through Majuro, the capital of the Marshall Islands, are now returning home to pick up the soggy pieces.

On Monday, nearly 1,000 people in Majuro and another 246 on the island of Arno, were forced to evacuate by epic king tides that inundated the low-lying communities. Many parts of Majuro Atoll are just 30cm above sea level and the islands as a whole are on average just 2 meters above sea level....

The Marshall Islands are a string of more than 1,000 low-lying islands and coral atolls in the North Pacific Ocean that are home to more than 70,000 people. The highest point, anywhere on the islands is 10 meters above sea level.

Last June, high tides, combined with up to 8 foot storm surge, left much of Majuro under two feet of water....

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that sea levels will rise between 28 and 98 cm by the end of the century. If the higher estimate proves right, about two-thirds of the Marshall Islands will be underwater by 2100. 

Ultimately, however, migration may be the only option for many islanders. Already there has been mass migration within the country, as people from the outer atolls stream into Majuro. While Majuro is far from being high ground, it does offer people, no longer able to live off the land in areas where salt water has crept into wells and agricultural lands, alternative ways to make a living.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/06/3372301/marshall-islands-flood-king-tide/

[JimD]

Miami is doomed

SH posted the below link over in the Greenland Topic and I thought it deserved a repeat here.  Very interesting read.  One can just see the politicians spending a hundred billion dollars of your money to save a dead man walking, so to speak, before everyone capitulates and abandons the place.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620

[Shared Humanity]

Miami is doomed

SH posted the below link over in the Greenland Topic and I thought it deserved a repeat here.  Very interesting read.  One can just see the politicians spending a hundred billion dollars of your money to save a dead man walking, so to speak, before everyone capitulates and abandons the place.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620

The most alarming part of this article is that, recognizing their predicament, Southeast Florida officials brought the finest engineers with the best expertise at holding the ocean back from Holland to provide solutions. After studying the geology of southeast Florida, they concluded that nothing could be done to protect the area from saltwater intrusion and they left.

[RaenorShine]

Are lightning deaths increasing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26554974

Lightning appears to be killing and injuring increasing numbers of people in developing countries, meteorologists and experts say.

The total casualties could even be higher than other weather-related disasters like floods, landslides and droughts.

"The frequency of lightning has somehow increased from what it used to be," says Michael Nkalubo, commissioner at Meteorological Department of Uganda, a country where lightning storms are common.

[JimD]

Are lightning deaths increasing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26554974

Lightning appears to be killing and injuring increasing numbers of people in developing countries, meteorologists and experts say.

The total casualties could even be higher than other weather-related disasters like floods, landslides and droughts.

"The frequency of lightning has somehow increased from what it used to be," says Michael Nkalubo, commissioner at Meteorological Department of Uganda, a country where lightning storms are common.

Ok!  I got the first part down, now I have to figure out how to direct it more accurately 

[solartim27]

I don't understand why anyone would invest in south Florida real estate.  This article has some good pictures of the limestone and flood control barriers
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/water-high-price-cheap/rising-seas-threaten-south-floridas-drinking-water

It doesn't matter if you can float around in your home if there's nothing to drink.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article1981142.html

[Sigmetnow]

Increasingly, people are giving up on New York City, many because of the weather.   
Article has a few facts, but mostly anecdotes.

Approximately 50,000 New Yorkers move to Florida every year, more than twice the number that move from Florida to New York.

It’s not just retirees, either. About 78% of those people are under 60.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/fed-winter-new-yorkers-moving-article-1.2142324

[ritter]

Funny that they'd move to Florida. I guess they'll be moving again as it goes under! 

[opensheart]

Should we add the Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu,  particularly the Island of  Efate

Category 5 Cyclone Pam Bearing Down on Island Nation of Vanuatu
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2933

According to some comments:
What is really unfortunate is that Pam is not even moving that fast, just 12mph. Prolonged winds of that magnitude are going to obliterate the island. I hope everyone has evacuated.


To tell the dire truth: Pam decided to rest at the beaches of Efate (or what is left of them): Pictures below with one hour difference :-((((

[LRC1962]

Approximately 50,000 New Yorkers move to Florida every year, more than twice the number that move from Florida to New York.
It’s not just retirees, either. About 78% of those people are under 60.

I am sorry, but that makes me laugh. Unless they are sticking to the very high ground in the north. (highly unlikely as they have picked Florida). You already have monthly flooding of coastal areas of over a foot without any storms. Scientist are highly suggesting at least 6" SLR by 2100. Let me think Soggy feet , or cold weather. Being used to the cold living where I do, my preference is dry feet, no anacondas or other snakes, crocodiles, alligators, in my front or back yard, no mildew..... Yup I can handle the cold quite nicely thank you.

[Sigmetnow]

Florida's future.

[Sigmetnow]

When people start moving underground due to climate change, consider the Turks, who did that a long time ago.

When it comes to hidden underground cities, few people were better builders than the Turks: The Derinkuyu complex in Turkey's Cappadocia region could provide refuge for at least 20,000 people in its carved-out caverns — but now archaeologists are surveying a site they think could be even bigger: a cave complex beneath a Byzantine-era hilltop castle in nearby Nevsehir that may go 370 feet (113 meters) deep.

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/weird-science/turkish-team-may-have-found-biggest-underground-city-yet-n330986

[wili]

Since it's "Byzantine-era," it wasn't the Turks that built it.

Also, some parts, at least, apparently go back 5000 years: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/03/27/how-this-vast-ancient-underground-city-was-accidentally-discovered-in-turkey/

[Sigmetnow]

In southeast Florida, the consequences of sea level rise are obvious.  People may not agree about climate change -- but they are taking action, at personal and community levels, across party lines.

Thus, Kahan’s data show that the same Southeast Floridians who could potentially polarize over climate change broadly agree, on a bipartisan basis, with statements like the following: “local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.”
...
[C]ities across Southeast Florida are steadily implementing the compact’s recommended adaptation measures. So far, according to a survey conducted in late 2014, Asseff’s city of Hollywood had implemented 38 out of 110, ranging from restoring trees in urban areas to advancing local renewable energy development, to studying how rising seas will affect stormwater systems. That’s an impressive third of the recommendations, but it’s actually well behind some other compact cities, such as Key West, which had implemented 65 at the time of the study, and Miami Beach, which stood at 61.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/31/the-unlikely-group-of-republicans-who-are-preparing-florida-for-climate-change/

[ritter]

In southeast Florida, the consequences of sea level rise are obvious.  People may not agree about climate change -- but they are taking action, at personal and community levels, across party lines.

Thus, Kahan’s data show that the same Southeast Floridians who could potentially polarize over climate change broadly agree, on a bipartisan basis, with statements like the following: “local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.”
...
[C]ities across Southeast Florida are steadily implementing the compact’s recommended adaptation measures. So far, according to a survey conducted in late 2014, Asseff’s city of Hollywood had implemented 38 out of 110, ranging from restoring trees in urban areas to advancing local renewable energy development, to studying how rising seas will affect stormwater systems. That’s an impressive third of the recommendations, but it’s actually well behind some other compact cities, such as Key West, which had implemented 65 at the time of the study, and Miami Beach, which stood at 61.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/31/the-unlikely-group-of-republicans-who-are-preparing-florida-for-climate-change/

It seems efforts would be so much more streamlined if they were allowed to talk about the actual cause of the problems (i.e., stop denying). Er, um, the seas be a risin! We gots to do sumin bout it! But it aint no climate change!

[Clare]

I thought this Hot Topic blog post might be of general interest tho' I am sure a number of you will be familiar with NZ & how much of our infrastructure is on the coast.
Areas in Auckland already has flooding problems during v high tides & the town where I live is barely above sea level & heavily reliant on the city's pumps pumping!

Someone has updated NZ's maps to show the effects for 3 scenarios of sea level rise, the lowest being 10m.  (He explains why he has made this the min level)
http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-encroaching-sea-new-nz-sea-level-rise-maps/
xraymike makes some v interesting points in the comments section, particularly about the rate of sea level rise in the future cf. in the geological past when the forcings were very different!

This is the area where I live, my house is well under water in the blued out part:
http://www.musther.net/nzslr/Maps/Local/10mSLR-HawkesBay.jpg

[Laurent]

I wonder why it is never mentioned that see level was up to 300 meter above see level in the past ? ... since we are approaching very fast the conditions needed to be at these levels, we should think twice before saying that sea level rise will be limited to 70 meters. 70 meters is only the volume of ice that has the potential to rise the sea level but it is less than 50% of the rise, so we are certainly (here again) underestimating the threat.

[foolhardycougar]

There are places which are covered with water as water levels has increased due to global warming and this makes these place less livable.
Here is an article which shows the effects of raising water levels on the coastal areas http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html
According to studies it is said that global warming cannot be bought to the normal that easily it will take decades, for our next generation lets make it safer

[Sigmetnow]

Billions of Dollars of Real Estate at Risk to Wildfire, Experts Say

More than 1.1 million properties in the western United States were identified as highly vulnerable to wildfire in a 2015 risk report from analytics firm CoreLogic. The cost to rebuild those homes would total $269 billion, according to the report, which was written to inform the insurance industry and, perhaps, sway policymakers to encourage fire-safe construction in areas susceptible to wildfires.

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/billions-dollars-real-estate-risk-wildfire-experts-say-n343586

[Sigmetnow]

The recent flooding in Texas points up the known problem of increasing development in flood plains.

In Texas, the Race to Build in Harm’s Way Outpaces Flood-Risk Studies and Warming Impacts
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dotearth/2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/

[Sigmetnow]

Air-conditioning [AC] claimed to now be a basic requirement for health in Kolkata, India.

Joyashree Roy, a key member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) team that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 has kicked up a storm by calling for large-scale air-conditioning of work spaces in Kolkata to not only improve productivity but also ensure good health.
...
With the climate increasingly getting harsh with temperature and humidity soaring to peak levels more frequently in recent years than in the past, Roy argues that there is no alternative to air-conditioning.

She cites the most widely used and accepted index for assessment of heat stress in industry to argue her case. "According to the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index (an empirical index that represents heat stress to which an individual is exposed), workability condition prevails in Kolkata during December and January only. In all other months, the parameters do not meet the index prescribed by International Labour Organization. Those who are work seven-eight hours a day without AC damage their health," said Roy.

While the WBGT threshold value for continuous light work is 30°C and 25°C for heavy work, Kolkata's monthly mean temperature during the day is higher than 30°C.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/west-bengal-ngo/Row-over-activist-says-AC-a-must-in-Kolkata/articleshow/47033590.cms?

[folke_kelm]

"I wonder why it is never mentioned that see level was up to 300 meter above see level in the past"

Laurent,

There s simply not enough ice to melt to get to these levels.
The reason for a sea level rise of 300 to 400 m has to be found in tectonic movements of the ocean crust. high sedimentation rate and less subduction in different geological times are well able to explain a global sea level rise or fall. Then there is the question wether this is global or regional. It is a difficult process to reconstruct paleogeographgy.

[Laurent]

That's not a reason to not mentioning it !!!

Again, yes, there is 70 meters of SLR due to the volume of ice available. But as it is presently at max 50% of the rise, so we can expect 140 meters, no ? More ?  yes of course, it will take time but the different plates will move, you can be sure of it, especially the Antartic plate will go up sooner or later. If we do not come back quicly at around 300 ppm of CO2 eq, the living people(what's left of them) will see it.

[folke_kelm]

Laurent,

We have of course enough ice to rise sea level with 70m, that´s not the case, but 300m is not possible in a time scale that is applicable to the survival time of any species, not even if you take isostatic rebound into your calculation. If you release the load from Antarctica and Greenland, they will rise, but at the same time, the ocean around will become deeper because of the same mechanism. Isostatic rebound will only cause regional sea level rise or fall, not global.

Laurent, do not mix up geological processes with climate change. There are very different time scales. When we speak about complete removal of ice caps we have some 1000 of years. The resulting isostatic rebound will take at least some 100 000 years before it is finished at a continental scale. When you speak about the influence of plate tectonics to sea level you have to count in million years and more.

[Laurent]

I won't tell you what will happened in the far future 100.000 years and more, but the only example that we have is our past, it does tell us there were was some sea level somewhere between 300 and 400 ppm, in fact twice. Would it be the same in the future, may be not, we don't really know what we are messing with.

People who claim this climate change is only a matter of 1000 years are wrong, we unstabilize a system that is engaged for at least 100.000 years and more. Enough for any geological change.

The last time we were at 485ppm of CO2 eq it took the earth 24 million years to come back to 300 ppm CO2eq. The more we are dumping, the harder the effort to come back it will be.

[Buddy]

Miami and other low lying coastal cities are toast as soon as the federal flood insurance program is adjusted for reality.  Once that guarantee goes.....Miami is in BIG trouble.  If things aren't insureable....most people wont live there.

New Orleans is "dead man walking" as well.  Houston........TOAST.  Beaumont......TOAST.

[folke_kelm]

Laurent, i have the impression, that we are talking a different language. Who on this forum is claiming that climate change is a matter of 1000 years?
I like this forum because it provides solid science and i try to explain from solid geology, because that is my profession. Geological processes are something very different than the climate change we see now, they are independent from it and we should not mix it up with the climate change we see now, first, because of the time scales, second, because of our own credibility. If we mix things up, contrarians may with all right say, that we do not know what we talk about.

The last time we had 400+ ppm CO2  we had a sea level much higher than the IPCC projections. This paleo sea level we will reach again, i have no doubt at all, but we do not need any geological processes to reach it and to help us to explain it, climate change due to radiative forcing is all we need to explain the past and the future.

[Laurent]

Ok, so we agree...
That climate change problem remains to be solved !

[TerryM]

Folke
I've walked in meadows that had served as harbors to the Vikings 1K ago in northern Newfoundland. Today what had been the harbor floor is about 3M above high tide. As I understand it that area became ice free around 5K an ago & the isostatic rebound would have begun then.
I don't know how much draught these ships required but if we assumed a minimum of 2M then in the last thousand years we have a rebound of 5M or .5M / 100 years.
As I understand it the land further inland is subsiding as the coast is rising so water is being displaced.
It seems to me as though the rising sea floor would be adding to SLR beginning as soon as the weight of the ice is removed & further that isostatic rebound would have had 4K an of slowing down before the present observations were made.
IIRC rebound at Flade Isblink has recently been measured and was quite pronounced. Wouldn't this produce similar results?
Thanks
Terry

[sidd]

Bangladesh is certainly becoming less livable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-32918219

[plinius]

Not entirely sure about the precise meaning, but I would like to point out that most of the mass concerned by isostatic adjustments is then landmass and not sea floor. Also, rebound should have started ~10k a ago, when the big ice sheets melted. Must have been far faster then - just suppose: lower bound should be the weight of the ice equalling the weight of the rising landmass, i.e. of order a couple of hundred meters. Probably much larger, though...

Do you have a link for that rebound? I suppose my info that this is not moving a lot:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JF001972/abstract

is probably outdated?

Folke
I've walked in meadows that had served as harbors to the Vikings 1K ago in northern Newfoundland. Today what had been the harbor floor is about 3M above high tide. As I understand it that area became ice free around 5K an ago & the isostatic rebound would have begun then.
I don't know how much draught these ships required but if we assumed a minimum of 2M then in the last thousand years we have a rebound of 5M or .5M / 100 years.
As I understand it the land further inland is subsiding as the coast is rising so water is being displaced.
It seems to me as though the rising sea floor would be adding to SLR beginning as soon as the weight of the ice is removed & further that isostatic rebound would have had 4K an of slowing down before the present observations were made.
IIRC rebound at Flade Isblink has recently been measured and was quite pronounced. Wouldn't this produce similar results?
Thanks
Terry