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The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1100 on: April 19, 2024, 05:15:00 AM »
So, when you thought it was a reduction in growth, that was “terrible,” but now that you realize it meant slower growth, you think that it “worse?”
« Last Edit: April 19, 2024, 06:45:03 AM by The Walrus »

squilliam

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1101 on: April 19, 2024, 05:49:22 AM »
I just want to say that it is so bloody depressing reading climate denial in the present. At what point does this become so obvious that even the most recalcitrant denier is forced to actually accept that the science is real?

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1102 on: April 19, 2024, 06:47:23 AM »
So, when you thought it was a resection in growth, that was “terrible,” but now that you realize it meant slower growth, you think that it “worse?”

Yes, it is worse.

A smaller economy means less damage.
If the regrowth is controlled and wealth distributed then it could be a very good thing for us and the planet. This would be the path where we are situated moving forward.

If the reduction is chaotic and uncontrolled with an increasing concentration in wealth, which is the most likely projection, it will end very badly within 15 years. The article states the business-as-usual approach with slower growth.... which just means it will take a few years longer.

That is the worst-case scenario done slightly slower.

So yeah, if it involves growth at any speed, it is very bad.

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1103 on: April 19, 2024, 06:52:23 AM »
I just want to say that it is so bloody depressing reading climate denial in the present. At what point does this become so obvious that even the most recalcitrant denier is forced to actually accept that the science is real?

I don’t believe this has anything to do with climate denial.  This is about the guardian misrepresenting a scientific journal article.  In their defense, the article was written in such a way that it could easily be misinterpreted in the way that the guardian did.  One has to wonder if that was intentional.  It wouldn’t be the first time.  That said, the best way to way deniers, skeptics, and other non-commitals is with accurate scientific information.  These types of claims, which turn out to be woefully inaccurate, do more harm than good.  Sure, they may work initially, causing folks to become more serious about the issue.  However, once exposed, has the exact opposite effect.

kiwichick16

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1104 on: April 19, 2024, 11:09:50 AM »
this study is actually saying that for the majority of the planet we are LOCKED IN to catastrophic losses .....and these losses are somewhat offset by some countries seeing gains in growth ......ie Russia, Scandinavia , Greenland , Alaska and Canada

these countries having gains has the effect of decreasing the average loss that the rest of the world will experience

no misrepresentation

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1105 on: April 19, 2024, 02:08:39 PM »
this study is actually saying that for the majority of the planet we are LOCKED IN to catastrophic losses .....and these losses are somewhat offset by some countries seeing gains in growth ......ie Russia, Scandinavia , Greenland , Alaska and Canada

these countries having gains has the effect of decreasing the average loss that the rest of the world will experience

no misrepresentation

We also need to consider the idea of perpetual growth, which is ignored a lot by people trying to convince everyone that we will be okay.

Assuming a basic 3% global growth rate over a 25-year period, that is more than double the size of today's global economy.

How is that even possible given the situation is so dire now?
And how can anyone think that doubling this will work without completely destroying the environment and climate?

It just makes no sense at all to think we can do that... something will break before 2025.

Slowing the growth by 20% changes almost nothing other than it will be about 80% growth instead of 100%.... we cant do either of those increases.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1106 on: April 19, 2024, 02:11:43 PM »
It is now pretty much certain that climate change guarantees that +1.5C will be history in a few years, and the debate is mostly about how large will be the overshoot.

Add to that the near certainty of increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather events.

Add to that continuing environmental degradation and destruction of ecosystems.

Add to that more and more science papers projecting the occurence and severe consequences of crossing tipping points (some of which are passed already).

All this says to me that forecasts and projections as far ahead as 2050 contain so much uncertainty as to be almost valueless.

What we need is risk assessments to highlight the peril in which humanity has already placed itself and life on earth through its actions, starting with what is already baked in and unstoppable in, say, the next 10 years. That might concentrate peoples' minds.
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Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1107 on: April 19, 2024, 02:39:11 PM »
It is now pretty much certain that climate change guarantees that +1.5C will be history in a few years, and the debate is mostly about how large will be the overshoot.

Add to that the near certainty of increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather events.

Add to that continuing environmental degradation and destruction of ecosystems.

Add to that more and more science papers projecting the occurence and severe consequences of crossing tipping points (some of which are passed already).

All this says to me that forecasts and projections as far ahead as 2050 contain so much uncertainty as to be almost valueless.

What we need is risk assessments to highlight the peril in which humanity has already placed itself and life on earth through its actions, starting with what is already baked in and unstoppable in, say, the next 10 years. That might concentrate peoples' minds.

From what I see, people don't like changing anything, especially when they are safe, secure and/or comfortable.
The only way people will radically change anything is when the disaster hits them directly and multiple times... and by then, it is too late.

This is the main reason we wont do anywhere near enough until after the shit hits the fan is many places.

Until then, those who are hit will adapt or move and we will be taken down in bits and pieces until it collapses properly.

To me, and I have been going on about this for well over ten years now, we would be better of prepping for what is coming rather than trying to stop it. But that wont happen either.

Maybe the death of the Great Barrier Reef will trigger a change... add in the disappearing summer Artic ice as well, or a sudden collapse of the Amazon will do the trick.
The AMOC slowing down enough to cause a sudden drop in temps in Europe and parts of the US would do the trick.

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1108 on: April 19, 2024, 04:12:13 PM »
I tend to agree that most people are resistant to change.  The nomadic herders were better equipped for changes, following the herds as they sought food and water.  As we became an agrarian society, we tried to tame nature.  But history is rife with societies being forced from their homes by changes in nature.  Eventually, we built dams and levees, irrigation systems, and all sorts of other fabrications in an attempt to maintain a particular lifestyle.  Occasionally, nature still wins out.

Yes, we are basically a reactionary people.  We tend to take action to prevent a certain disaster from reoccurring, without thinking about the next one.  With that said, I do believe adaptation is quite achievable, as we have been doing so for eons.  We do a rather good job of preparing for the future, just not preventing it.  I see no reason why we won’t survive any climatic changes.  We are a resilient species, living in some inhospitable places.

  The world may look different a century from now, but when has it not?
« Last Edit: April 19, 2024, 04:36:02 PM by The Walrus »

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1109 on: April 19, 2024, 07:29:42 PM »
We life in an untested phase of society. We never had this much people in big cities. Yes it all held so far but... we are not that good at preparing for the future or even taking care of today. Along with climate change we have a number of other problems like aquifers running dry , a horrible plastic problem and a problem with persistent chemical pollution.

GDP numbers are rather abstract and not that important. All these things we fail to handle and thus we dump the problem on our kids and the grandkids etc.

We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state. Our world is not preparing for the future at all but milking the present.
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1110 on: April 19, 2024, 08:32:07 PM »
Quote
We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state.
Maybe "on average" ...  There was a lot more leaded gasoline around then (compared to now [unless you live at an airport harboring small airplanes]).

But I remember when Alberto VO5 shampoo came out with plastic bottles, so yes, there is much much more plastic pollution around now.  And although the transistor was invented in 1947, the first commercial transistor radio was released a year or two before I was; so electronic waste is much much more polluting now than then.  [My older siblings debate whether I was hatched, purchased or released - but this is a different "catastrophe chat."]

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1111 on: April 19, 2024, 11:35:36 PM »
Quote
We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state.
Maybe "on average" ...  There was a lot more leaded gasoline around then (compared to now [unless you live at an airport harboring small airplanes]).

But I remember when Alberto VO5 shampoo came out with plastic bottles, so yes, there is much much more plastic pollution around now.  And although the transistor was invented in 1947, the first commercial transistor radio was released a year or two before I was; so electronic waste is much much more polluting now than then.  [My older siblings debate whether I was hatched, purchased or released - but this is a different "catastrophe chat."]

I tend to agree with you regarding plastic and electronics.  Chemical pollution is much less than half a century ago.  In addition to unleaded gasoline, smokestacks have scrubbers, there is less dumping of hazardous chemicals into landfills and rivers.  Cities used to be so polluted that the smog blocked out the sun.  Certain lakes were considered “dead,” because fish couldn’t line with the toxic waste.  We even had a river that burned. 

Back then, the western world was more polluted, due to increased business and industry.  Now, I would say the opposite, due to cleaner waste.

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1112 on: April 20, 2024, 02:50:19 AM »
Quote
We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state.
Maybe "on average" ...  There was a lot more leaded gasoline around then (compared to now [unless you live at an airport harboring small airplanes]).

But I remember when Alberto VO5 shampoo came out with plastic bottles, so yes, there is much much more plastic pollution around now.  And although the transistor was invented in 1947, the first commercial transistor radio was released a year or two before I was; so electronic waste is much much more polluting now than then.  [My older siblings debate whether I was hatched, purchased or released - but this is a different "catastrophe chat."]

I tend to agree with you regarding plastic and electronics.  Chemical pollution is much less than half a century ago.  In addition to unleaded gasoline, smokestacks have scrubbers, there is less dumping of hazardous chemicals into landfills and rivers.  Cities used to be so polluted that the smog blocked out the sun.  Certain lakes were considered “dead,” because fish couldn’t line with the toxic waste.  We even had a river that burned. 

Back then, the western world was more polluted, due to increased business and industry.  Now, I would say the opposite, due to cleaner waste.

Are you guys joking?

So, lets look at 50 years ago... 1975.
Population was 4 billion compared to 8 billion today.

https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth

This means we would need to be using less than half the pollution today than 50 years ago... we are not doing that. Not even close to it. And, barring the rare exception, everything is worse today in regards to the amounts we pollute the world.

Petrols... sure, removing lead was a good thing.
But again, does it matter much?

Oils produced 31.7 terawatts of power in 1975
Last year was 52 terawatt hours worth. Still going up.

Plastics made...
1975 - 46 million tons
2019 - 460 tons

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-plastics-production

And what do you mean by "chemical pollution"?
Here is an interesting take on how you think it is reducing.... short answer, it isn't.

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/planet-earth/waste/hazardous-waste-statistics

On no level did either of you say a correct statement... all I see is a couple of people wearing rose coloured glasses and pining for the past. It is truly sad.

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1113 on: April 20, 2024, 03:52:21 AM »
Quote
We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state.
Maybe "on average" ...  There was a lot more leaded gasoline around then (compared to now [unless you live at an airport harboring small airplanes]).

But I remember when Alberto VO5 shampoo came out with plastic bottles, so yes, there is much much more plastic pollution around now.  And although the transistor was invented in 1947, the first commercial transistor radio was released a year or two before I was; so electronic waste is much much more polluting now than then.  [My older siblings debate whether I was hatched, purchased or released - but this is a different "catastrophe chat."]

I tend to agree with you regarding plastic and electronics.  Chemical pollution is much less than half a century ago.  In addition to unleaded gasoline, smokestacks have scrubbers, there is less dumping of hazardous chemicals into landfills and rivers.  Cities used to be so polluted that the smog blocked out the sun.  Certain lakes were considered “dead,” because fish couldn’t line with the toxic waste.  We even had a river that burned. 

Back then, the western world was more polluted, due to increased business and industry.  Now, I would say the opposite, due to cleaner waste.

Are you guys joking?

So, lets look at 50 years ago... 1975.
Population was 4 billion compared to 8 billion today.

https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth

This means we would need to be using less than half the pollution today than 50 years ago... we are not doing that. Not even close to it. And, barring the rare exception, everything is worse today in regards to the amounts we pollute the world.

Petrols... sure, removing lead was a good thing.
But again, does it matter much?

Oils produced 31.7 terawatts of power in 1975
Last year was 52 terawatt hours worth. Still going up.

Plastics made...
1975 - 46 million tons
2019 - 460 tons

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-plastics-production

And what do you mean by "chemical pollution"?
Here is an interesting take on how you think it is reducing.... short answer, it isn't.

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/planet-earth/waste/hazardous-waste-statistics

On no level did either of you say a correct statement... all I see is a couple of people wearing rose coloured glasses and pining for the past. It is truly sad.

It is not rose colored anything.  It is fact!  Air pollutants have decreased significantly, even while population and gdp has increased.

https://www.resources.org/archives/looking-back-50-years-clean-air-act-1970/

In the U.S., two-thirds of the lakes and rivers were polluted in 1972.  Most have been remedied in the half century since.

https://www.environmentalworks.com/history-of-the-clean-water-act/amp/

Production is not the same as pollution.  Your numbers mean nothing.  By comparison, read what real data says.  I haven’t even included reusing and recycling.

Regarding your confusion about chemical pollution, let me try to enlighten you.  Chemicals can be either pure elements or compounds which get released, intentionally or unintentionally, into the environment, accumulating in the air, water, or soil.  This contrasts with litter, such as plastic bottles, paper, and junk.  While unsightly, this litter does not accumulate in the air, water, and soil, posing a health hazard to the air we breathe, water we drink, or food we eat.  These chemicals have been reduced substantially over the past half century.  Has that helped with your understanding?

Perhaps where you live things are getting worse.  But in the developed world (especially the U.S.), pollution is much less today than in the 1970s.  Those of us who lived through those years, know first hand.  You may not truly know how bad it was.  Either that, or you are refusing to acknowledge what you do not want to accept.  How can you say removing lead did not do much.  Are you still using leaded gasoline where you live? 

« Last Edit: April 20, 2024, 04:39:56 AM by The Walrus »

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1114 on: April 20, 2024, 05:41:00 AM »
Its like you dont have a clue.... do you understand that the sheer volume of environmental destruction via oil, plastics, and chemicals doesn't matter to you.

You seem to have no idea that the US is NOT THE WORLD.

You say air pollutants have decreased... well, it might be cleaner on a chemical level but we use A LOT more of the stuff than the "cleaning" has been reduced. And, lets be clear on this, no amount of cleaning a dirty product makes it good for the environment or climate. It is still very bad and we are piling on.

Water... since you cant figure out the US isn't the world, lets focus on you some more.

Water quality is not solved or close to solved.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/347735/water-pollution-remains-top-environmental-concern.aspx

I could get into how the aquifers are drying up from overuse... so even with the poor attack on water pollution continuing in the US, there is also less of it.

But of course, when you comeback is "the numbers mean nothing", it is difficult to show how you are wrong when you refuse to acknowledge the numbers that show the problem.

As I said, rose coloured glasses and ignorance thrown on top makes for a happy idiot.

Just to be clear here... this is not about the US< it is about the entire world.

The US is not fixing anything on scale within its own borders.

Nothing you have mentioned in terms of the situation getting better is correct and it is shown in the numbers that you say mean nothing.

And I am not confused about chemicals... you didn't say which chemicals or define it. So this is not about me needing my confusion removed, it is about you not being clear and swooping in afterward like some sort of saviour.

I provided information about chemicals... but again, those numbers don't mean anything to you.... probably because they don't match your rose colour, mirror filled, version of the world.

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1115 on: April 20, 2024, 06:21:19 AM »
Its like you dont have a clue.... do you understand that the sheer volume of environmental destruction via oil, plastics, and chemicals doesn't matter to you.

You seem to have no idea that the US is NOT THE WORLD.

You say air pollutants have decreased... well, it might be cleaner on a chemical level but we use A LOT more of the stuff than the "cleaning" has been reduced. And, lets be clear on this, no amount of cleaning a dirty product makes it good for the environment or climate. It is still very bad and we are piling on.

Water... since you cant figure out the US isn't the world, lets focus on you some more.

Water quality is not solved or close to solved.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/347735/water-pollution-remains-top-environmental-concern.aspx

I could get into how the aquifers are drying up from overuse... so even with the poor attack on water pollution continuing in the US, there is also less of it.

But of course, when you comeback is "the numbers mean nothing", it is difficult to show how you are wrong when you refuse to acknowledge the numbers that show the problem.

As I said, rose coloured glasses and ignorance thrown on top makes for a happy idiot.

Just to be clear here... this is not about the US< it is about the entire world.

The US is not fixing anything on scale within its own borders.

Nothing you have mentioned in terms of the situation getting better is correct and it is shown in the numbers that you say mean nothing.

And I am not confused about chemicals... you didn't say which chemicals or define it. So this is not about me needing my confusion removed, it is about you not being clear and swooping in afterward like some sort of saviour.

I provided information about chemicals... but again, those numbers don't mean anything to you.... probably because they don't match your rose colour, mirror filled, version of the world.

I tried to explain it you, but you refuse to listen.  I showed you quantitatively how pollution has been reduced, but you ignore them.  Instead pointing to numbers which have nothing to do with pollution.  You refuse to listen to anyone who does not agree with your own version of reality, and proceed to question their intelligence. 

In all your posts, you seem fixated on certain issue, choosing to ignore others, as if they don’t matter to you.  Then you have the gall to others clueless.  I guess I better leave you to own version of the world.  I would say enjoy it, but you seem to think it is hell on earth.  I, on the other hand, will continue to enjoy the better life we have nowadays.  Good day.

HapHazard

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1116 on: April 20, 2024, 06:27:55 AM »
Lead pollution/pervasiveness was much much higher back in the day. It's been linked to IQ drops in older folk. Good thing it's cleaner now, Rodius.
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1117 on: April 20, 2024, 06:32:54 AM »
Its like you dont have a clue.... do you understand that the sheer volume of environmental destruction via oil, plastics, and chemicals doesn't matter to you.

You seem to have no idea that the US is NOT THE WORLD.

You say air pollutants have decreased... well, it might be cleaner on a chemical level but we use A LOT more of the stuff than the "cleaning" has been reduced. And, lets be clear on this, no amount of cleaning a dirty product makes it good for the environment or climate. It is still very bad and we are piling on.

Water... since you cant figure out the US isn't the world, lets focus on you some more.

Water quality is not solved or close to solved.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/347735/water-pollution-remains-top-environmental-concern.aspx

I could get into how the aquifers are drying up from overuse... so even with the poor attack on water pollution continuing in the US, there is also less of it.

But of course, when you comeback is "the numbers mean nothing", it is difficult to show how you are wrong when you refuse to acknowledge the numbers that show the problem.

As I said, rose coloured glasses and ignorance thrown on top makes for a happy idiot.

Just to be clear here... this is not about the US< it is about the entire world.

The US is not fixing anything on scale within its own borders.

Nothing you have mentioned in terms of the situation getting better is correct and it is shown in the numbers that you say mean nothing.

And I am not confused about chemicals... you didn't say which chemicals or define it. So this is not about me needing my confusion removed, it is about you not being clear and swooping in afterward like some sort of saviour.

I provided information about chemicals... but again, those numbers don't mean anything to you.... probably because they don't match your rose colour, mirror filled, version of the world.

I tried to explain it you, but you refuse to listen.  I showed you quantitatively how pollution has been reduced, but you ignore them.  Instead pointing to numbers which have nothing to do with pollution.  You refuse to listen to anyone who does not agree with your own version of reality, and proceed to question their intelligence. 

In all your posts, you seem fixated on certain issue, choosing to ignore others, as if they don’t matter to you.  Then you have the gall to others clueless.  I guess I better leave you to own version of the world.  I would say enjoy it, but you seem to think it is hell on earth.  I, on the other hand, will continue to enjoy the better life we have nowadays.  Good day.

Yeah.... that is the problem... you get to have a better life at the expense of others and the planet and wont need to deal with the consequences of generations of that type of thinking.

Enjoy your life... don't worry about the others who gave it to you or the future generations that have to fix your mess.

Dont worry about the planet, only the US matters and your own little region of it.

The stats tell a story of more air pollution, more plastics, more CO2, more production, more water pollution and just more of everything we need to reduce.

The clean up doesn't keep up with the mess making.

And the resources required to maintain this lovely little lifestyle you are lucky to have are running out fast.

And in all of that, you think we can double the economy size in 25 years and it will be mostly okay.

More growth isn't possible for 25 more years... it isn't going to happen because it cant happen. There isn't enough good land, there isn't enough clean water, there isn't enough minerals to double what we have now.

That is the point of this.
Not you talking about the US and how wonderful it is... even though it is easy to show it isn't good there in terms of water quality, amount, air pollution, CO2 emissions, and so on. But this isn't about you... this is a global thing.

That is the point.
THe planet cant do it even if you think it can... the physical reality is we cant maintain what we are doing now.
How do we double something we cant maintain already?

We need something like 4 planets worth of resources to maintain what we are doing at the moment.... and you think we can double that lol.

That is the point.

Can you stay on it?

Explain to everyone how a species using 4 planets' worth of resources can double everything in 25 years.

Slight edit... not 4 times as much resources... 1.7 worth
https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/how-many-earths-or-countries-do-we-need/#:~:text=Humanity%20is%20using%20nature%201.7,the%20resources%20of%201.7%20Earths.

The four planets worth comes from the idea that everyone lived like the US... it is actually five but lets not quibble over that.

https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/how-many-earths-or-countries-do-we-need/#:~:text=The%20Ecological%20Footprint%20for%20the,to%20look%20at%20the%20data.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1118 on: April 20, 2024, 07:26:43 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1119 on: April 20, 2024, 02:21:37 PM »
Rhodius, it seems you can’t get past yourself.  There is no use arguing with you anymore, as you can’t see past your own nose (which is why I stopped responding to your political posts).  I tried to explain if you, but you refuse to even listen.  You couldn’t even comprehend one iota of what I wrote.  Instead, referring back to what you want to believe.  I guess it is true; a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.  Enjoy your bubble.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2024, 02:27:38 PM by The Walrus »

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1120 on: April 20, 2024, 02:51:07 PM »
Rhodius, it seems you can’t get past yourself.  There is no use arguing with you anymore, as you can’t see past your own nose (which is why I stopped responding to your political posts).  I tried to explain if you, but you refuse to even listen.  You couldn’t even comprehend one iota of what I wrote.  Instead, referring back to what you want to believe.  I guess it is true; a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.  Enjoy your bubble.

Hmmm.... so, are you going to explain how we will extract more resources than the planet has to make this 100% growth rate in 25 years work?

Also... why not give some real, measurable evidence that pollution is better than 50 years ago in the US (This is about the planet but you like the US discussion so lets just run with that.)

Pick any of the below and show your data that says the situation is better than 50 years ago in the US.

Oil.
Water.
Plastics.
Chemicals.

If you can do that, the conversation can continue. I suspect you wont because you cant.

Just insert your excuse for refusing to do this as you normally do.

Pick any of them and show


The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1121 on: April 20, 2024, 03:54:52 PM »
Rhodius, it seems you can’t get past yourself.  There is no use arguing with you anymore, as you can’t see past your own nose (which is why I stopped responding to your political posts).  I tried to explain if you, but you refuse to even listen.  You couldn’t even comprehend one iota of what I wrote.  Instead, referring back to what you want to believe.  I guess it is true; a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.  Enjoy your bubble.

Hmmm.... so, are you going to explain how we will extract more resources than the planet has to make this 100% growth rate in 25 years work?

Also... why not give some real, measurable evidence that pollution is better than 50 years ago in the US (This is about the planet but you like the US discussion so lets just run with that.)

Pick any of the below and show your data that says the situation is better than 50 years ago in the US.

Oil.
Water.
Plastics.
Chemicals.

If you can do that, the conversation can continue. I suspect you wont because you cant.

Just insert your excuse for refusing to do this as you normally do.

Pick any of them and show

I never mentioned anything about available resources.  Why are you steering the conversation away from the topic of pollution.  I presented real data - you just chose to ignore it.  Reread my earlier post.  It showed real data about air and water.  Here is some more:

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3825/2016/acp-16-3825-2016.pdf

And from Europe:

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3825/2016/acp-16-3825-2016.pdf

You asked about oil.  Here is some global data:

https://www.itopf.org/knowledge-resources/data-statistics/statistics/


Of course there are places like Russia, China, and India which are worse today.  But as I mentioned earlier, the developed world (not just the U.S.) has shown remarkable improvement.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2024, 04:12:01 PM by The Walrus »

El Cid

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1122 on: April 20, 2024, 04:53:49 PM »
You two are pretty happy bashing each other but let me say that in this case there are (at least) two sides of the coin

1) There has OBVIOUSLY and MEASURABLY been a huge improvement in the developed world in pollution and the envrionment: eg. forest cover is at an (at least) 100 year high; species that were extinct in many places are coming back (eg in my country wolves, beavers, jackals, even bears, etc many smaller ones as well); rivers that were hazardous to health due to pollution (eg. Rhine, Thames, Danube but many more) are now clean enough to swim in; there's no more acid rain of the post WW2 period;the air is cleaner in most cities and even in the countryside; no more DDT and other pesticides that kill everything and bioaccumulate to give you cancer and whatnot; the EU is even making steps towards a greener agriculture with less soil destruction; and I could go on for hours. Environmental Protection Laws were very useful. Only a blind man could deny that

2) However, there are new, possibly even bigger problems: climate change could kill species; microplastics and "forever chemicals" could be dangerous for the whole ecosystem and no way to rid us of them. These dangers are big, we shouldn't deny that.

Also, it is true that as living standards grow, people want more so the economy needs more resources but we know from history that eg. energy intensity and other resource intensity starts gowing down fast above a certain level of developement. in simple terms: you don't need twice as much oil or copper, etc for twice as much gdp! A good example is the US where they use the same amount of oil as in 1998, but real GDP has doubled, nominal tripled.

Is there going to be a catastrophe? I find it extremely unlikely in the next 20 years but others might have other opinions. I know I may be wrong, but some people believe they are certainly right. In my experience those people are the most dangerous...just saying

The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1123 on: April 20, 2024, 05:08:26 PM »
El Cid, I agree with you.  The air, soil, and water pollution of the past (at least in the developed world) have been largely remedied.  They have been replaced by new environmental issues.  The newer issues pose less of a toxic hazard than the previous - not that they should be ignored.  The cleanup of the old contamination is not complete, but it is hard to argue that pollution was not worse 50 years ago.  Had we continued on that pathway, I doubt any of us would be here to discuss it today.

John_the_Younger

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1124 on: April 20, 2024, 05:42:26 PM »
Thank you El Cid!

My response of "Maybe 'on average' ..." was clearly to the statement, "We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state."

When I read "in a less polluted world" I read it it two ways: 1) the 'world' immediately around the birth [definitely people born near Love Canal 60 and 70 years ago were born in a more polluted 'world' than people born there today] and 2) the Earth's surface ecosystem (oil pollution in coastal Nigeria is much worse now than it was back in the day, etc., etc., etc. [India, Russia, SE Asia, Ecuador...] over balancing the places where it is less polluted).

If Rodius objected to my "maybe", I'll accept the objection, as there is no maybe about the ecosystem's average, but the stated objection seems to have been to everything I wrote which doesn't make any sense since two of my three (serious) examples were of "more polluted," and my one "less polluted" item was conditional.


The Walrus

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1125 on: April 20, 2024, 05:57:49 PM »
Thank you El Cid!

My response of "Maybe 'on average' ..." was clearly to the statement, "We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state."

When I read "in a less polluted world" I read it it two ways: 1) the 'world' immediately around the birth [definitely people born near Love Canal 60 and 70 years ago were born in a more polluted 'world' than people born there today] and 2) the Earth's surface ecosystem (oil pollution in coastal Nigeria is much worse now than it was back in the day, etc., etc., etc. [India, Russia, SE Asia, Ecuador...] over balancing the places where it is less polluted).

If Rodius objected to my "maybe", I'll accept the objection, as there is no maybe about the ecosystem's average, but the stated objection seems to have been to everything I wrote which doesn't make any sense since two of my three (serious) examples were of "more polluted," and my one "less polluted" item was conditional.

I think most of us agree with you.  I was born slightly before those events, but the framework for their occurrences was already in place.  Much of the developing world is going through what the developed world went through half a century ago.  They have the advantage of knowing what we know, so they have a better chance at remedying the situation in less time.

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1126 on: April 20, 2024, 06:45:19 PM »
You two are pretty happy bashing each other but let me say that in this case there are (at least) two sides of the coin

1) There has OBVIOUSLY and MEASURABLY been a huge improvement in the developed world in pollution and the envrionment: eg. forest cover is at an (at least) 100 year high; species that were extinct in many places are coming back (eg in my country wolves, beavers, jackals, even bears, etc many smaller ones as well); rivers that were hazardous to health due to pollution (eg. Rhine, Thames, Danube but many more) are now clean enough to swim in; there's no more acid rain of the post WW2 period;the air is cleaner in most cities and even in the countryside; no more DDT and other pesticides that kill everything and bioaccumulate to give you cancer and whatnot; the EU is even making steps towards a greener agriculture with less soil destruction; and I could go on for hours. Environmental Protection Laws were very useful. Only a blind man could deny that

2) However, there are new, possibly even bigger problems: climate change could kill species; microplastics and "forever chemicals" could be dangerous for the whole ecosystem and no way to rid us of them. These dangers are big, we shouldn't deny that.

Also, it is true that as living standards grow, people want more so the economy needs more resources but we know from history that eg. energy intensity and other resource intensity starts gowing down fast above a certain level of developement. in simple terms: you don't need twice as much oil or copper, etc for twice as much gdp! A good example is the US where they use the same amount of oil as in 1998, but real GDP has doubled, nominal tripled.

Is there going to be a catastrophe? I find it extremely unlikely in the next 20 years but others might have other opinions. I know I may be wrong, but some people believe they are certainly right. In my experience those people are the most dangerous...just saying
I guess the old out of sight out of heart still works these days.

It's not because rich countries cleaned up a little of their mess that the word has suddenly less pollution. We just send our trash to poor countries now.


https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/672#:~:text=et%20al.,waste%20in%20the%20same%20year.
Quote
Plastic waste pollution is currently one of the main items on international agendas. It leads to more and more leakages and constitutes a dangerous threat to living beings and the ecosystem (toxic substances). Globally, only 9% of plastic waste is recycled, while 22% of it is mismanaged. A large part of this waste ends up legally or illegally in Africa. This article uses the available data on plastic waste to shed light on the situation in Africa. Particular attention is paid to imports of plastics and the recycling sector, as well as ways to combat improper dumping and to prevent/reduce marine pollution (microplastics).


https://www.stateofglobalair.org/resources/africa#:~:text=Africa%20experiences%20some%20of%20the,health%20consequences%20in%20the%20world.

Quote
Africa experiences some of the worst air pollution and some of the most severe health consequences in the world. In 2019, air pollution was the second leading risk factor for death across Africa, a large and dynamic continent that is home to more than 1.2 billion people. In terms of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), 5 of the world’s 10 most heavily polluted countries are in Africa.
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1127 on: April 20, 2024, 06:46:29 PM »
Thank you El Cid!

My response of "Maybe 'on average' ..." was clearly to the statement, "We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state."

When I read "in a less polluted world" I read it it two ways: 1) the 'world' immediately around the birth [definitely people born near Love Canal 60 and 70 years ago were born in a more polluted 'world' than people born there today] and 2) the Earth's surface ecosystem (oil pollution in coastal Nigeria is much worse now than it was back in the day, etc., etc., etc. [India, Russia, SE Asia, Ecuador...] over balancing the places where it is less polluted).

What would be the average age? So if it is fifty then it is mid seventies, make it forty is mid eighties. Lets go from 1980.

In the west the overall environment became much cleaner for people. At some point lots of production moved to China taking out many big industries. It gave us cleaner air but it also meant that part of China´s emissions were our emissions. Air quality there has deteriorated somewhat since 1980.

In those four decades the amount of plastic we used has grown enormously and it is everywhere in it´s microplastic form.

We don´t have DDT anymore but we spray a huge cocktail of different things.

If you consider the human additions of CO2, CH4 etc pollution then that went up quite a bit.

We have this thing called legacy permits. So the government permits a big chemical to dump certain things in the river because hey it will all dilute down. There are no reviews for this but modern science shows it is not a good idea.

Our surface waters have a far more diverse blend of chemicals in them then 40 years ago even if the air is cleaner.

There is more PFAS in the rain then four decades ago etc. 
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gerontocrat

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1128 on: April 20, 2024, 07:05:05 PM »
El Cid points to an improving situation in Europe.

Perhaps the EU reducing the use of pesticides simply moves the problem elsewhere

The EU is increasing forest cover, but in 2023 globally deforestation led by farming still cleared an area nearly equal to Switzerland

And if the EU is in such good shape then how come The long-term trends in bird populations demonstrate that Europe has experienced a major decline in biodiversity.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/18/pesticide-use-around-world-almost-doubles-since-1990-report-finds#:~:text=Global%20pesticide%20use%20has%20soared,every%20year%2C%20the%20report%20finds.
Quote
Pesticide use around world almost doubles since 1990, report finds
Agricultural chemicals drive falls of 30% in populations of field birds and butterflies,
says Pesticide Atlas

Global pesticide use has soared by 80% since 1990, with the world market set to hit $130bn next year, according to a new Pesticide Atlas. But pesticides are also responsible for an estimated 11,000 human fatalities and the poisoning of 385 million people every year, the report finds.

Quote
https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/at-a-glance/nature/state-of-nature-in-europe-a-health-check/bird-populations-latest-status-and-trends
Bird populations: latest status and trends
The long-term trends in bird populations demonstrate that Europe has experienced a major decline in biodiversity.

The European Union (EU) protects over 460 species of wild birds throughout their entire life cycle under the EU Birds Directive. According to the latest assessment, around half of these wild bird species have a good population status at the EU level, which is slightly less (5%) compared to the last reporting period (2008-2012). In the last six years, the proportion of birds having poor and bad conservation status has increased by 7% to reach a total of 39%.

Whilst 47% of 463 bird species in the EU are in good conservation status, 39% are in poor and bad conservation status. 


Quote
Natural History Museum
https://www.nhm.ac.uk › discover › news › november
17 Nov 2021 — There are over 600 million fewer birds in Europe than there were 40 years ago. While the decline is levelling off, some of the continent's ...


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Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1129 on: April 21, 2024, 12:23:58 AM »
The legacy chemicals from DDT and it’s breakdown chemicals still haunt our farms. Chlorpyfros  was still killing one third of all watersheds from SB to Monterey while Trump held up the EPA ban for his entire term. Almost all oats sold and eaten in the US are contaminated with roundup. Organic oats being the exception. Republicans support this  sort of unregulated largess to corporate ag. Profit first, environment go to end of line.
 The only agriculture that has to submit their product to sampling for pesticides , or legacy pesticides like DDT or DDE is the cannabis industry. The grape growers hate the fact that cannabis testing reveals the extent of overspray drift in their vineyard operations. As it turns out you can spray nasty shit but it is illegal to allow your spray to become drift.
 There are some places that they just can’t grow cannabis because there is so much legacy chemicals in the soil that the dust will trigger rejection by the mandated sampling. They even tried using grow bags with imported growing medium but just the dust from the farm caused rejection. When those same cannabis farms fail for financial reasons of not passing pesticide checks the property just reverts to vegetables and nobody cares about the consequences of feeding our legacy chems  back to us. I think there are hundreds of chemicals and pesticides I would prefer never to consume ,a list far larger than fifty years ago and there is no reason to assume they are safe any more than chlorpyfros was safe for humans while it killed all the  aquatic insects. It wasn’t.
 I am going to testify to the county board of Supervisors that I would much prefer the smell/ stink of being downwind a cannabis farm than to have the same upwind farm operated with conventional agriculture , sprays, and the poison control for squirrels that goes with it. I am tired of watching the Hawks die after a neighbor goes on a squirrel killing campaign. I don’t like the Poison signs blowing down onto my property with whatever spray it was warning of.
 Are things better these days ?  Well I haven’t had a crop duster fly over me spraying DDT like on my grandfathers farm when I was in grade school. Or smoked pot the US government sprayed with Paraquat and the Mexicans moved north anyway.
 Some people might question why there seems to be a drop in human sperm counts. Because first we have a problem , then we try to track down why, and then after some feet dragging by whoever is responsible we may react but years and years of exposure preceded our cognition of effects. Sorry, move on.
 Also they aren’t dropping nukes in the Nevada desert and mistakenly dusting some population center somewhere. Important improvement that.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2024, 07:18:35 AM by Bruce Steele »

Rodius

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1130 on: April 21, 2024, 02:12:38 AM »
Thank you El Cid!

My response of "Maybe 'on average' ..." was clearly to the statement, "We were all born in a less polluted world then the current state."

When I read "in a less polluted world" I read it it two ways: 1) the 'world' immediately around the birth [definitely people born near Love Canal 60 and 70 years ago were born in a more polluted 'world' than people born there today] and 2) the Earth's surface ecosystem (oil pollution in coastal Nigeria is much worse now than it was back in the day, etc., etc., etc. [India, Russia, SE Asia, Ecuador...] over balancing the places where it is less polluted).

If Rodius objected to my "maybe", I'll accept the objection, as there is no maybe about the ecosystem's average, but the stated objection seems to have been to everything I wrote which doesn't make any sense since two of my three (serious) examples were of "more polluted," and my one "less polluted" item was conditional.

"On average" doesn't tell the story well enough.
I don't think we are better off on average on a global level than 50 years ago and I am not sure one would even measure that.

Some terrible things are better and other areas are mush worse. I have no idea how to quantify that.

What matters more isn't the average, it is the totals.
For example... it doesn't matter if we made petrol cars 50% more efficient if the growth rate is 500%.. the problem is still worse. (Neither of those numbers are actual, I made them up as an example of how I view the situation overall)

It doesn't matter if the EU and US are cleaning up their acts if they are sending the production of their goods overseas to places like Africa, India, China etc.

The EU might have more trees, but are they native, untouched, and wild or is it forestry?

Birds and insects are still dying in large numbers everywhere, surely that is a sign that something terrible is happening to the ecosystems?

Walrus plonks a link showing how oil spills are better.. which is good to know, but one tiny clean up doesn't translate to a global clean up.

In the end, if what we are doing is growing our production we are screwed.

We already use 1.7 Earths worth of resources... how do we double that in 25 years? And even if it isn't double and we maintain the current resource use, we are still screwed.

My main point is we are not doing well at all on almost every front, it is worse than 50 years ago, and it increasing in how bad it is despite the clean ups we are doing.

The only answer is to reduce the size of the economy, reduce production as fast as possible, and for wealthy countries to reduce living standards a lot so those without can improve their lot.

It is possible to reduce production and improve the average living standards of humans while improving out waste management and return as much land to the wild as possible. But I don't see people in the EU, US, Australia and other wealthy countries reducing their living standards for the sake of the planet.

Waste will increase, we will suck up the resources, and one day we will find ourselves in a deep hole we cant get out of that cant be ignored or talked away by lawyer type thinkers.

It might not happen in 25 years but I wouldn't bet against it.
Much like I wouldn't bet against the Great Barrier Reef being mostly dead within 10 years, or the Arctic ice disappearing in summer within 30 years, or the Amazon transitioning to savannah within 50 years.

All of those will happen because we arent going to adapt until it is too late, and part of the reason we collapse as a global civilization includes increased waste that we try to trick ourselves into thinking it is getting better.

Go ask the insect population what they think.

neal

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1131 on: April 21, 2024, 02:18:52 AM »



There are very few forms of pollution that do not accumulate over time.

Much of it is still out there and more accumulates every day.

More people adding somewhat less does not equal better

Freegrass

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1132 on: April 21, 2024, 06:07:52 PM »
So I think we've established that pollution is getting worse.
Now back tot the climate, that's also getting worse.

90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

kassy

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Re: Climate Catastrophe Chat
« Reply #1133 on: Today at 11:36:38 AM »
Africa’s Carbon Sink Capacity Is Shrinking

A new estimate of Africa’s greenhouse gas budget from 2010 to 2019 shows increasing emissions from cropland expansion, livestock, and fossil fuel use—meaning the continent may have transitioned from an overall carbon sink to a slight carbon source.

...

https://eos.org/research-spotlights/africas-carbon-sink-capacity-is-shrinking

Not that much carbon sinks left...
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