Places becoming less livable

[kiwichick16]

Dunedin  (NZ )  city council considering buying out houses in low lying areas

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/it-allows-options-council-plans-to-buy-south-dunedin-s-flood-prone-housing/ar-AA1hd0hY?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=adf6e191d6c148e0b046ec8b4f96db4e&ei=17

[vox_mundi]

Extreme Weather Could Cause Insurance Rates Across North Carolina to Spike
https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2023/10/03/insurance-rates-nc-extreme-weather-wind-flooding

Nearly 13% of properties in the Raleigh metro could be facing higher insurance premiums or policy non-renewals due to the risk of high winds and flooding.

Just east of Raleigh, however, a much larger percentage of homes are at risk.

Driving the news: Insurers are changing how they factor climate and extreme weather risks into premiums. Others are suspending coverage altogether.

By the numbers: Nearly 24 million U.S. properties may face higher premiums because of the risk of potential wind damage, about 12 million because of the risk of flooding, and about 4.4 million due to wildfire risk.

What's happening: When it comes to wildfire and wind damage, some private insurers are dropping policyholders as the risk of those threats grows, says Jeremy Porter, First Street's head of climate implications research.

https://firststreet.org/

Meanwhile, FEMA recently updated its flood insurance pricing model for the first time since the 1970s, leading to higher premiums that are more reflective of today's flooding risks, Porter says.

The intrigue: 8 million households are in FEMA flood zones, but only 4.7 million have active flood insurance policies.

https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/risk-rating

Of note: Climate and extreme weather risks — and the associated financial costs — are starting to influence where people choose to live, Porter says, but only to a slight degree.

Zoom in: Close to 30% of homes across North Carolina are at risk of rate hikes or non-renewals.

Of North Carolina areas mentioned in the report, Jacksonville has the highest number of homes that could see non-renewals or rate hikes, at 99.9%, most due to wind risk.

That number is 97% in Wilmington because of wind or flooding, though more properties could see rate increases due to wind.

In Fayetteville, more than 51% of properties could see higher insurance premiums or policy non-renewals because of wind, wildfires, flooding or all three.

[vox_mundi]

First of Its Kind Dataset Shows Future Flooding Risk at Neighborhood Level
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-kind-dataset-future-neighborhood.html

"People care about flooding because it's an impact. Assessing extreme precipitation and associated flood risks at a local level is necessary for decision-making and developing mitigation strategies," said Sujan Pal, an Argonne hydroclimatologist

Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory have developed a new dataset that estimates increased inland flood risk from climate change during the mid-21st century. Their article about the dataset, published in the Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, looks specifically at a study of the Northeastern United States, but the dataset will soon be applied across the country and can be implemented in any global region.



A new data portal, the Climate Risk and Resilience Portal (ClimRR), houses all the data from these simulations for the continental United States. ClimRR was recently launched at Argonne with support from AT&T and FEMA and won a 2023 Climate Leadership Award and an R&D 100 Award.

https://disgeoportal.egs.anl.gov/ClimRR/

Sujan Pal et al, Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (2023)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823000587?via%3Dihub

[vox_mundi]

'Climate Vulnerability Index' Shows Where Action, Resources Are Needed to Address Climate Change Threats
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-climate-vulnerability-index-action-resources.html



The Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is the most comprehensive screening tool of its type, showing how, why, and where climate risks threaten the stability of communities throughout the U.S.

"The launch of the CVI represents a significant leap forward in our understanding of the cumulative impacts of climate change," Chiu said. "By offering a comprehensive framework to evaluate the multi-dimensional susceptibilities of communities to climate-related risks, this new tool provides a template for addressing local-scale climate and environmental justice around the globe."

The CVI was based on the journal article "Characterizing vulnerabilities to climate change across the United States" published in Environment International, and was developed into an interactive map of the U.S. and dashboard by Darkhorse Analytics.

The CVI combines 184 sets of publicly available data to rank more than 70,000 U.S. census tracts. The data used can be grouped into seven broad domains—including health, infrastructure, and extreme events—which can then be broken down into sub-domains addressing specific issues like chronic disease and mental health.

"This tool is designed to very quickly enable people to move from viewing the overall CVI score all the way down to a location's score based on a single data indicator. This will help people identify potential connections, such as the interaction between infrastructure and flood risk."

The CVI also allows users to search by location to view their overall climate vulnerability and the conditions that shape it—from quality of housing and access to supermarkets to proximity to toxic waste sites and number of deaths from air pollution.

According to the CVI, these are the most vulnerable U.S. counties:

- John the Baptist, Louisiana
- Iberville, Louisiana
- Knox, Kentucky
- Landry, Louisiana
- Dillon, South Carolina
- Tangipahoa, Louisiana
- Acadia, Louisiana
- Floyd, Kentucky
- Jefferson, Texas
- Whitley, Kentucky

P. Grace Tee Lewis et al, Characterizing vulnerabilities to climate change across the United States, Environment International (2023)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023000454?via%3Dihub

CVI Tool: https://climatevulnerabilityindex.org/

[SteveMDFP]

'Climate Vulnerability Index' Shows Where Action, Resources Are Needed to Address Climate Change Threats
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-climate-vulnerability-index-action-resources.html

CVI Tool: https://climatevulnerabilityindex.org/

Counter-intuitively, it seems darker color means *less* risk here.

However, the cited tool at climatevulnerabilityindex.org is the opposite, and offers fine-grained, tract-level data.

[vox_mundi]

Where Are All the Climate Migrants? Explaining Immobility amid Environmental Change
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/where-are-all-climate-migrants-explaining-immobility-amid-environmental-change

“In 2022 alone, [natural] disasters drove some 32.6 million recorded internal displacements—the highest figure in more than a decade,” the United Nations noted in a new report Wednesday. “This includes people forced to flee floods, monsoons, and other shock events; an additional unknown number moved in response to gradually deteriorating environmental conditions such as sea-level rise, coastal erosion, extreme heat, and climatic variability.”

But in the months and years to come, the UN cautions, “the world may actually be facing a future in which fewer people are able to move as a result of climate change because environmental changes can decrease the very resources needed to migrate.” And this vicious dynamic is referred to as “the immobility paradox.”

“For example, a farming household that regularly engages in seasonal migration to cities for off-season employment may no longer be able to do so because diminishing crop yields force them to redirect assets to meet their basic needs,” according to the UN’s latest report. And “In the case of severe drought, evidence from West Africa shows that households tend to allocate dwindling resources to basics such as food, water, and shelter rather than investing in migration.”

Report: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/a981991d-0598-468f-874b-23f887331691/Climate%20Migrants%2004.2023.pdf

[kassy]

And as more people migrate to the cities other people will already be doing those jobs so even if you can get there it does quite get the earnings it did before.

[Sigmetnow]

At the end of the Mississippi, a saltwater wedge overwhelms a community
A mass of salt water moving up the drought-stricken river has slowed, giving New Orleans more time to prepare. In tiny Plaquemines Parish, there has been no such respite.
October 7, 2023

BURAS, La. — The lunch rush was over, and Byron Marinovich ambled through the storage room of the Black Velvet Oyster Bar & Grill, perched on the bank of the Mississippi River roughly 60 miles south of New Orleans.
As he flushed out the building’s water heater into a plastic bucket, he pulled out bits of white sediment, a few nearly as large as a fingernail.
“Salt,” he said, sighing with a frustration palpable throughout this part of rural Plaquemines Parish.
As a mass of salt water from the Gulf of Mexico has forced its way nearly 70 miles up the drought-stricken Mississippi, the problem has drawn national attention, triggered a presidential emergency declaration and ignited a feverish effort to protect the drinking water supply for roughly a million people around greater New Orleans.

Good news arrived Thursday, when the Army Corps of Engineers released updated projections showing that a saltwater wedge once estimated to arrive in Jefferson and Orleans parishes later this month will now probably not arrive until late November, if at all.
That’s partly due to an underwater levee project the Corps undertook to slow the salty water’s advance, as well as data showing the river’s flow has remained higher than anticipated. Officials are now talking about finding permanent solutions for a problem that once seemed remote but now seems destined to happen again.
Even so, there has been no respite in Plaquemines Parish, a fishing and oil and gas hub where the once-mighty river meets the Gulf, where many residents have endured months of salt-laden water.

The Mississippi River’s saltwater intrusion problem, explained
Many remain under drinking water advisories that began in June, when levels of salinity surged well beyond what the Environmental Protection Agency considers safe — though some residents insist the salt water infiltrated their taps much earlier.
To talk with people here is to hear tales of worry, exasperation and weariness — and to see glimpses of the challenges that could await those in more populated areas upriver, should the salt water intrude that far.

 
Locals complain of hair and skin problems caused by showering in salty water, and of appliances that have corroded. They talk of gardens that wilted, pets that got sick, of the smell of rotten eggs from the tap. Mothers describe the stress of seeing their children’s eczema grow worse, of constantly reminding them to use bottled water to drink and brush teeth. Restaurant owners have grown tired of trucking in ice each day and cooking meals with bottled water.

 
“They feel like the forgotten people,” said Mark “Hobbo” Cognevich, a Plaquemines Parish Council member who represents the areas most affected.
Local leaders promise that solutions are imminent — multiple reverse osmosis systems were being installed at treatment plants in Plaquemines over the past week, and the Army Corps has been barging in hundreds of thousands of gallons of fresh water to help dilute the salty water from the river. Even so, a sense of resentment and fatigue remains over how long the trial has lasted and whether future droughts will mean repeating it in coming years.
“I don’t know how much more of it I can take,” said Casey Ancalade, 42, who frets about making sure her two children don’t ingest the tap water.
…

Hours earlier, the Army Corps had given its blessing to an audacious plan that would allow the parish to begin construction of a temporary pipeline it hopes could eventually stretch 15 miles up the river, allowing Jefferson to keep drawing fresh water even if the mass of salt water were to reach the parish.
“The goal is just to always stay ahead of the saltwater wedge,” Sheng said.

Nearby, contractors were unfurling the first long stretches of piping that would soon stretch upriver, costing the parish roughly $12 million to $15 million per month, but providing what Sheng sees as an invaluable peace of mind.
In nearby Orleans Parish, a similar and even more costly plan was unfolding. In concert with state and federal officials, leaders there also were planning an upriver pipeline — at an estimated cost of $150 million to $250 million.
The 48-inch pipeline would be constructed several miles at a time, with pumps installed along the way to move fresh water back to New Orleans.
Smaller water treatment plants in the area could rely on reverse osmosis systems to remove salt or also mix in fresh water from Army Corps barges to lower salinity — options not feasible for the larger facilities in Jefferson and Orleans.
…

He noted that the parish had also struggled this summer with frequent pipe breaks and falling water pressure caused by drought and heat. But now, he said, the Army Corps had begun barging in fresh water, contractors were working to hook up reverse osmosis units and chloride levels have been falling.
“It just doesn’t happen overnight,” Hinkley said, noting that units at a small water plant in Boothville alone will cost roughly a half-million dollars a month. “It’s a lot of prep work before you process that first gallon of water.”
Soon, he said, the parish should be able to lift remaining drinking water advisories.
…

Two years in a row now, crippling drought has severely weakened the flow of the Mississippi, which in more normal times is strong enough to prevent salt water from intruding very far upstream.
It isn’t unprecedented. Salt water has intruded far up the river in 1936 and 1988, when the river’s flow dwindled to 120,000 cubic feet per second, the lowest on record. The saltwater that year stretched as far as Kenner, La., but soon retreated.
Four times in the past — 1988, 1999, 2012 and 2022 — the Army Corps has constructed an underwater levee, or sill, to try to slow the salt water from moving along the river bottom. This year, the Corps undertook a similar effort in July, only to have to expand it as the drought wore on.

The bottom of the river, which has been heavily engineered and dredged over the years, also lies lower than sea level until around Natchez, Miss. — a topography that makes it easier for salt water to flow.

The weakening of the Mississippi’s flow has multiple causes, including shifting precipitation patterns, depletion of soil moisture during heat waves, land use changes upriver and below-average snowfall farther north. But researchers also say the influence of rising seas and a warming atmosphere can’t be overlooked.

“Droughts and heat waves are not new in the Mississippi Basin, but climate change is expected to make the extremes we’ve seen this year more likely in the future,” Joshua Lewis, research director at Tulane University’s ByWater Institute, said in an email. …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/07/saltwater-mississippi-river-louisiana-water-supply/

⬇️ Click to enhance.

[kassy]

Saltwater intrusion is going to be a problem in many more places.

On one side there is rising ocean levels increasing the pressure over time while on the other side the rivers are dwindling because we use more water and evaporation increases with temperature. And some rivers will also have the bonus damage of losing input from disappearing glaciers.

[John_the_Younger]

Saltwater intrusion is also a groundwater issue.  For example, from Florida Department of Environmental Protection:

Encroachment of saline water into Florida’s freshwater resources can potentially and adversely affect drinking water supplies, agriculture production, and industry as well as surface water environments. Over the past several decades, groundwater levels have declined throughout Florida. In addition, salinity concentrations have increased both locally and regionally. Two major causes of salinity increases are below normal rainfall from the late 1990s and pumping of groundwater from our aquifers.

I understand that salinity changes affect what precipitates out of and dissolves into ground water.  It's like when Flint, Michigan's domestic water source was changed, the lead in its pipes started to leach.

[CalamityCountdown]

MANAUS, Brazil (AP) — Communities dependent on the Amazon rainforest’s waterways are stranded without supply of fuel, food or filtered water. Dozens of river dolphins perished and washed up on shore. And thousands of lifeless fish float on the water’s surface.

These are just the first grim visions of extreme drought sweeping across Brazil’s Amazon. The historically low water levels have affected hundreds of thousands of people and wildlife and, with experts predicting the drought could last until early 2024, the problems stand to intensify.

Link to the rest of the article - It's a heart wrenching read
https://apnews.com/article/brazil-amazon-drought-environment-climate-rivers-4152b5e288e1b85abc4e5d4af64db67d

[kassy]

The KNMI released some new predictions for the Netherlands:

Rainy winters and extremely dry summers with heatwaves up to 45C or even higher. In 2100 it will be 2,5 to 6 degrees warmer then the 20th century.

Then there is also sea level rise.

If global temps hit 2C we get to 45C. If they hit 4C we would get temperatures over 50C in summer.

Currently we are 2,3C warmer then 1900 which means we are warming at double the global rate.


https://www.nu.nl/klimaat/6284004/nederlands-klimaat-wordt-extremer-nattere-winters-drogere-en-hetere-zomers.html

Regardless of where we end up it is not going to be like it was. Of course this goes for the whole world. We are sadly still aiming at over 2C.

[vox_mundi]

Climate-Driven Extreme Heat May Make Parts of Earth Too Hot for Humans
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-climate-driven-extreme-earth-hot-humans.html



If global temperatures increase by 1° Celsius (C) or more than current levels, each year billions of people will be exposed to heat and humidity so extreme they will be unable to naturally cool themselves, according to interdisciplinary research from the Penn State College of Health and Human Development, Purdue University College of Sciences and Purdue Institute for a Sustainable Future.

Results from a new article published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences indicated that warming of the planet beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be increasingly devastating for human health across the planet.

The researcher team modeled global temperature increases ranging between 1.5°C and 4°C—considered the worst-case scenario where warming would begin to accelerate—to identify areas of the planet where warming would lead to heat and humidity levels that exceed human limits.

The ambient wet-bulb temperature limit for young, healthy people is about 31°C, which is equal to 87.8°F at 100% humidity, according to work published in 2022 by Penn State researchers.

However, in addition to temperature and humidity, the specific threshold for any individual at a specific moment also depends on their exertion level and other environmental factors, including wind speed and solar radiation. In human history, temperatures and humidity that exceed human limits have been recorded only a limited number of times—and only for a few hours at a time—in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, according to the researchers.

Results of the study indicate that if global temperatures increase by 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the 2.2 billion residents of Pakistan and India's Indus River Valley, the one billion people living in eastern China and the 800 million residents of sub-Saharan Africa will annually experience many hours of heat that surpass human tolerance.

These regions would primarily experience high-humidity heat waves. Heat waves with higher humidity can be more dangerous because the air cannot absorb excess moisture, which limits sweat evaporates from human bodies and moisture from some infrastructure, like evaporative coolers. Troublingly, researchers said, these regions are also in lower-to-middle income nations, so many of the affected people may not have access to air conditioning or any effective way to mitigate the negative health effects of the heat.

If warming of the planet continues to 3°C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers concluded, heat and humidity levels that surpass human tolerance would begin to affect the Eastern Seaboard and the middle of the United States—from Florida to New York and from Houston to Chicago. South America and Australia would also experience extreme heat at that level of warming.

At current levels of heating, the researchers said, the United States will experience more heat waves, but these heat waves are not predicted to surpass human limits as often as in other regions of the world. Still, the researchers cautioned that these types of models often do not account for the worst, most unusual weather events.

"And remember, heat levels then were all below the limits of human tolerance that we identified. So, even though the United States will escape some of the worst direct effects of this warming, we will see deadly and unbearable heat more often. And—if temperatures continue to rise—we will live in a world where crops are failing and millions or billions of people are trying to migrate because their native regions are uninhabitable."

... To stop temperatures from increasing, the researchers cite decades of research indicating that humans must reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, especially the carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil fuels. If changes are not made, middle-income and low-income countries will suffer the most, Vecellio said.

As one example, the researchers pointed to Al Hudaydah, Yemen, a port city of more than 700,000 people on the Red Sea. Results of the study indicated that if the planet warms by 4°C, this city can expect more than 300 days when temperatures exceed the limits of human tolerance every year, making it almost uninhabitable.

Vecellio, Daniel J. et al, Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120

[RoxTheGeologist]

Insurance companies are there to insure against less likely outcomes - the expensive occasional events that we group together to pay; If everyone is exposed to the same risk, and the frequency is high, insurance no longer makes sense.

I am sure they can't put up premiums enough to mitigate the risk. If you choose to live somewhere that requires you to repair flood damage yearly, then there is no point in buying insurance. That's the state Florida property is in. It also means that you can't use that property as collateral for a loan. Why the hell would you loan money against something that can't be insured?

The cities should recognize the risk and start to implement adaptation policies. That probably involves starting to demolish and clean up properties that have to be abandoned and moving populations.

[vox_mundi]

14,000 Displaced In Myanmar After Record Rain Sparks Floods
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-displaced-myanmar.html

Residents of Myanmar's flood-hit Bago city salvaged food and belongings from their waterlogged homes on Tuesday after record rainfall triggered floods that authorities said have displaced 14,000 people.

In eastern Bago city residents waded down streets through waist-deep water or floated along in boats or on rubber tires, as ripples lapped at shuttered shops and houses.

"This is the first time my house has been flooded in my life," Phwar Than Hme, 101, told AFP from the monastery where she was taking shelter.

... On Sunday authorities reported that 200 mm (almost eight inches) of rain had fallen in the previous 24 hours in Bago region northeast of commercial hub Yangon—a record for October.

Heavy rain continued through Monday night.

[kassy]

Climate-Driven Extreme Heat May Make Parts of Earth Too Hot for Humans

Another good reason to slam the brakes on our emissions. It´s sad that this is still the climate future we are moving too...

[vox_mundi]

Delhi Air Pollution Spikes to 100 Times WHO Health Limit
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/03/delhi-india-air-quality-pollution-spike-world-health-organization-limit

Air quality in Delhi hit severe levels on Friday and a thick toxic smog cloaked the city, marking the beginning of a pollution season that has become an annual catastrophe for India’s capital.

Schools were shut and non-essential construction was banned around Delhi as the air quality index in the city almost hit 500 – the highest the measurement will go and 100 times the limit deemed to be healthy by the World Health Organization

Air quality in the city had deteriorated over the past week, attributed to a sharp rise in farmers in the neighbouring states of Haryana and Punjab burning their fields during the crop planting season, compounded by winds that carried the pollutants into Delhi and a drop in temperatures trapping the particles.

On Sunday, the state of Punjab saw a 740% increase in farm fires, with more than a thousand recorded in a single day. Other causes of pollution in the city are car emissions, construction and the burning of rubbish at waste plants.

... Pollution has become a political flashpoint.

The source of more than two-thirds of air pollution plaguing the city comes from beyond its borders, where municipal authorities don't have the authority to act.

The capital, Delhi, and Punjab state are governed by the Aam Aadmi Party, (AAP) but other neighboring states are led by their rivals from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Farmers, a powerful bloc of voters, say stubble burning is easy and cheap, and city pollution doesn't impact them.

"All that impacts Delhi. Pollution and winds can't be restricted by state boundaries."

"Obviously, the politics has an impact," Rai said. "It creates hurdles when it comes to implementing policies."

Schools Shut As Toxic Smog Engulfs India's Capital
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-schools-toxic-smog-engulfs-india.html
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-air-pocalypse-indian-capital-green-war.html

[kassy]

Earth’s Axis May Be Shifting – And The Culprit Probably Isn’t What You’d Expect

Between 1993 and 2010, Earth’s rotational pole shifted by more than 78 centimeters (30 inches), according to recent models.

...

In 2021, scientists attributed a change in the Earth’s tilt to the melting of polar ice caps. Evidence now reveals a subtler factor is also at play: groundwater extraction.

Both studies rely on data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), a US/German mission that tracks the gravity of points on the planet as it passes over them. GRACE has operated since 2002, but previous data has been used to create a picture of planetary spin dating back to the 1980s.

Throughout the time we have been monitoring, Earth’s poles have been moving relative to the continents above, but the rate changed direction and accelerated dramatically in the mid-1990s. This has been attributed to vast quantities of polar ice melting and raising sea levels, causing a redistribution to the equator. That makes a much bigger difference than your winter holiday, no matter how much luggage you take, and unfortunately, the ice isn’t coming back any time soon.

Something similar, but more complicated, happens when groundwater is drawn up. Although the water is initially mostly used for local agriculture or industry, once brought to the surface much of it evaporates or flows into rivers, usually ending up in the oceans.

Past calculations suggest this groundwater removal should have added 6 millimeters (0.24 inches) to sea levels between 1993 and 2010. However, that’s only about 10 percent of the rise observed over that time. Melting ice and thermal expansion are bigger factors, making it hard for us to determine if we have each contribution right.

That’s where GRACE comes in useful. The additional seawater shifts the pole, but the shift is different depending on where it comes from.

"Earth's rotational pole actually changes a lot," said Ki-Weon Seo of National University in a statement. "Our study shows that among climate-related causes, the redistribution of groundwater actually has the largest impact on the drift of the rotational pole."

Seo and co-authors modeled how the poles would have moved relative to the continents based only on ice melt. As anticipated, this didn’t match observations, so they added in various scenarios for groundwater extraction.

When they used a previously estimated figure of 2,150 gigatonnes, the model closely matched reality. Without this effect, the Earth’s pole would have been pointing 78.5 centimeters (31 inches) west of where it is, a rate of movement of 4.4 centimeters (1.7 inches) a year, similar to the rate at which continents move. The pole is edging towards Iceland, instead of central Greenland as it would be otherwise.

Groundwater extraction is harder to model than ice melt, partly because it’s so widespread. However, the bulk of water pumped during this period has been in two regions of major scarcity – the western United States and Northern India, which are at similar latitudes.

...

https://www.iflscience.com/earths-axis-may-be-shifting-and-the-culprit-probably-isnt-what-youd-expect-71654

Andthepumping will be harder and harder over time...

[John_the_Younger]

"Funny" consequence of a shifting 'true' North Pole: my property boundaries are determined by lat-long numbers; "soon" my house will be on my neighbor's property! (I hope they'll let me stay, and will I get rent money from my other neighbor?)

And how can the North Pole be drifting 'east'? [What's posted is, paraphrased (I think): "it would have been west of where it is with less water extraction".]

Or was it the South Pole drifting toward Iceland? The article said "Earth's pole" as if there was only one intersection of the imaginary spindle on which the Earth spins and the Earth's surface [and thus evidence of a flat Earth - oh my!].

[trm1958]

Maybe the pole is drifting towards the Eastern Hemisphere, kinda like West Antarctica is nearer the Western Hemisphere?

[vox_mundi]

Uncontrolled Chemical Reactions Fuel Crises at LA County's Two Largest Landfills
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-uncontrolled-chemical-reactions-fuel-crises.html

Hundreds of feet underground, in a long-dormant portion of Chiquita Canyon landfill, tons of garbage have been smoldering for months due to an enigmatic chemical reaction.

Although operators of the Castaic landfill say there's no full-blown fire, temperatures within the dump have climbed to more than 200 degrees, and area residents have complained of a burned garbage odor wafting through the neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, 12 miles to the southeast, Sunshine Canyon landfill has suffered water intrusion from torrential storms earlier this year. That seepage has fueled bacteria growth within the Sylmar landfill, giving rise to putrid odors that have nauseated students and staff at a local elementary school.

Both facilities remain operational and each continues to accept more than 7,000 tons of trash a day. However, many residents who live nearby fear the potential of even greater problems and say that government officials and landfill operators need to take the problems more seriously.

"If temperatures get to a certain point, there isn't going to be much that can be done," said Sarah Olaguez, a Val Verde resident whose family lives less than a mile from Chiquita Canyon. "I feel like we're on the precipice right now. It's a train wreck waiting to happen. It's scary and I feel trapped."

The scorching temperatures within Chiquita Canyon Landfill have caused pressure to build inside the 639-acre facility and forced contaminated water to burst onto the surface.

Analyses by CalRecycle, the state agency that oversees solid waste and recycling facilities, described the situation as a "heating/ smoldering" event that has expanded in all directions since the summer. By November, the reaction area had grown by 30 to 35 acres, according to the agency.

Already, the heat has melted or deformed the landfill's gas collection system, which consists mostly of polyvinyl chloride well casings. The damage has hindered the facility's efforts to collect toxic pollutants.

... The landfill began as an illegal dumping ground in the mid-1950s, when people discarded trash in the canyon without permits. In 1958, the city of Los Angeles permitted a 40-acre landfill, which later expanded into the county's largest dump site.

Due to its location, winds bluster through the Newhall mountain pass and disperse the odors onto Granada Hills and Sylmar.

[vox_mundi]

Researchers Find Cancer-Causing Metals In a Chesapeake Bay Tributary Adjacent to a Coal Ash Landfill
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-cancer-causing-metals-chesapeake-bay-tributary.html

A recent study in Environmental Pollution unveils alarming discoveries: Researchers have identified cancer-causing contaminants in sediments and fish in a Chesapeake Bay tributary near a coal ash landfill.

The study, led by Dr. Tyler Frankel, the project's principal investigator and Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Mary Washington, uncovered long-overlooked impacts of trace metal contamination on waterways and aquatic species adjacent to coal ash landfills. Frankel emphasized the study's focus was on addressing the missing risk management component, spotlighting the role of sediments in storing, releasing, and transporting trace metals in aquatic ecosystems.

The research team examined water and sediment samples from aquatic environments surrounding five Virginia coal ash facilities. Coal ash, a prevalent industrial waste product produced in the United States, contains several water-soluble metals, including cadmium, selenium, mercury, lead, and arsenic. The study revealed significantly heightened concentrations of these trace metals in sediments at waterway bottoms and in banded killifish tissues near these coal ash landfills.

The implications are grave. Long-term exposure to metals like arsenic, cadmium, and chromium has been linked to cancer, increased cardiovascular risks, and other detrimental health issues, impacting both wildlife and humans. Furthermore, these contaminants increase in concentration as they progress up the food web, posing threats to predatory fish and birds, Frankel said.

T.E. Frankel et al, Assessing the presence, concentration, and impacts of trace element contamination in a Chesapeake Bay tributary adjacent to a coal ash landfill (Possum Point, VA), Environmental Pollution (2023)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0269749123017700

[kiwichick16]

Air pollution kills people....

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/29/lasting-legacy-of-the-six-cities-study-into-harms-of-air-pollution

[zufall]

Why Are Alaska’s Rivers Turning Orange?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-are-alaskas-rivers-turning-orange/

Streams in Alaska are turning orange with iron and sulfuric acid. Scientists are trying to figure out why

BY ALEC LUHN

It was a cloudy July afternoon in Alaska's Kobuk Valley National Park, part of the biggest stretch of protected wilderness in the U.S. We were 95 kilometers (60 miles) from the nearest village and 400 kilometers from the road system. Nature doesn't get any more unspoiled. But the stream flowing past our feet looked polluted. The streambed was orange, as if the rocks had been stained with carrot juice. The surface glistened with a gasolinelike rainbow sheen. “This is bad stuff,” said Patrick Sullivan, an ecologist at the University of Alaska Anchorage.

Sullivan, a short, bearded man with a Glock pistol strapped to his chest for protection against Grizzly Bears, was looking at the screen of a sensor he had dipped into the water. He read measurements from the screen to Roman Dial, a biology and mathematics professor at Alaska Pacific University. Dissolved oxygen was extremely low, and the pH was 6.4, about 100 times more acidic than the somewhat alkaline river into which the stream was flowing. The electrical conductivity, an indicator of dissolved metals or minerals, was closer to that of industrial wastewater than the average mountain stream. “Don't drink this water,” Sullivan said.

Less than a dozen meters away the stream flowed into the Salmon River, a ribbon of swift channels and shimmering rapids that winds south from the snow-dimpled dun peaks of the Brooks Range. This is the last frontier in the state known as “the last frontier,” a 1,000-kilometer line of pyramidlike slopes that wall off the northern portion of Alaska from the gray, wind-raked Arctic Coast.

One of the most remote and undisturbed rivers in America, the Salmon has long been renowned for its unspoiled nature. When author John McPhee paddled the Salmon in 1975, it contained “the clearest, purest water I have ever seen flowing over rocks,” he wrote in Coming into the Country, an Alaska classic. A landmark 1980 conservation act designated it a wild and scenic river for what the government called “water of exceptional clarity,” deep, luminescent blue-green pools and “large runs of chum and pink salmon.”

Now, however, the Salmon is quite literally rusting. Tributary streams along one third of the 110-kilometer river are full of oxidized iron minerals and, in many cases, acid. “It was a famous, pristine river ecosystem,” Sullivan said, “and it feels like it's completely collapsing now.” The same thing is happening to rivers and streams throughout the Brooks Range—at least 75 of them in the past five to 10 years—and probably in Russia and Canada as well. This past summer a researcher spotted two orange streams while flying from British Columbia to the Northwest Territories. “Almost certainly it is happening in other parts of the Arctic,” said Timothy Lyons, a geochemist at the University of California, Riverside, who's been working with Dial and Sullivan.

Scientists who have studied these rusting rivers agree that the ultimate cause is climate change. Kobuk Valley National Park has warmed by 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.32 degrees Fahrenheit) since 2006 and could get another 10.2 degrees C hotter by 2100, a greater increase than projected for any other national park. The heat may already have begun to thaw 40 percent of the park's permafrost, the layer of earth just under the topsoil that normally remains frozen year-round. McPhee wanted to protect the Salmon River because humans had “not yet begun to change it.” Now, less than 50 years later, we have done just that. The last great wilderness in America, which by law is supposed to be “untrammeled by man,” is being trammeled from afar by our global emissions.

(...)

[vox_mundi]

Scotland's Climate Changing Faster Than Predicted
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-scotland-climate-faster.html

Scotland's climate is changing faster than scientists predicted, with increasing likelihood of more frequent and more extreme weather events, according to new analysis by The James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen.

Experts at the independent research organization say weather patterns in Scotland have changed substantially since 1960 and that changes that were expected to be seen over the next three decades are already happening.

In some parts of the country, temperatures in February, for example, have risen 2.5°C, since 1960. This observed change is comparable to the lower range of what climate scientists had projected for the future period 2020–2050, implying we are on course to reach the projections of higher temperatures.

The research, carried out for the Scottish Government, includes a warning that increased water scarcity could impact crop productivity, change ecosystem functions and undermine efforts to restore greenhouse gas-emitting peatlands in some areas, with central and eastern uplands particularly at risk. The trends of increased warming and reduced rainfall in the spring and summer will also increase wildfire risk.

Dr. Mike Rivington, who led the Scottish climate change and extremes trends research at the Hutton says, "We are now in the midst of climate breakdown: our ecosystems that regulate the climate and enable food production are degrading and are at risk of collapse, while we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions driving further warming.

Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition Màiri McAllan said, "These findings underline that the climate emergency is not a distant threat—it is with us today. Storms have battered Scotland in recent months and 2023 is set to be the hottest year on record.

The research is set out in two reports delivered to the Scottish Government: "Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland" and "Climate Extremes in Scotland." They look at past trends, but also what we can expect, based on a range of 12 climate projections out to 2080.

They show that Scotland has also already experienced more rainfall during winter than had been projected. Between 1990 to 2019, February and to a lesser extent April have become wetter, particularly in the west, by up to 60%, exceeding the projected change by 2050 of 45–55%.

In terms of temperature, for Scotland overall, the reports points to Scotland exceeding a 2°C increase in temperature by the 2050s, with the months from May to November experiencing up to 4°C of warming over the next three decades (2020–2049).

The number of days of consecutive dry weather—an indicator for drought and wildfire risk—are also expected to increase in drier months, such as September.

"Threats include water shortages reducing agricultural productivity, and risk water supplies running out at points in the year. Less and warmer water in streams impacts river health and water quality due to higher concentrations of pollution, but also increased potential for flooding in winter due to increased rainfall.

Climate Change Impacts on Natural Capital
https://www.hutton.ac.uk/research/projects/climate-change-impacts-natural-capital

Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland
https://www.hutton.ac.uk/sites/default/files/files/D2_1a%20Climate%20trends%20summary%20report%20FINAL%206-12-22.pdf

Climate Extremes in Scotland
https://www.hutton.ac.uk/sites/default/files/files/D2_1b%20Climate%20extremes%20report%205-3-23%20FINAL%20submitted.pdf

[Linus]

Insurance costs facing a steep increase in North Carolina.

Insurance firms seek 42% rate hike for NC homes with 99% increase at beaches, officials say.

The North Carolina Rate Bureau, which represents companies that write insurance policies in the state, is requesting a 42.2 percent rate increase for homeowners’ insurance, the news release said.

The highest rate increases — at 99.4 percent — would essentially double costs for homeowners in beach areas in Brunswick, Carteret, New Hanover, Onslow, and Pender counties, the news release indicated. Insurance companies are seeking a 39.8 percent hike for homes in Durham and Wake counties, including Raleigh and Durham.

https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-carolina-news/insurance-firms-seek-42-rate-hike-for-nc-homes-with-99-increase-at-coast-officials-say/

[Sebastian Jones]

I, and a couple of hundred others live across the Yukon River from Dawson City, Yukon ,Canada.
West Dawson & Sunnydale is an off-grid community with few services other than periodic road maintenance in Summer.
Access is via a free public ferry which also provides a link to the (seasonal) road over the mountains to Alaska. The ferry runs from the end of May, after the ice has flushed, until mid October when the ice (supposedly) returns.
Winter access is across the ice. Historically, the river would stop, would freeze around the end of October to mid November, and generally, by Xmas the river would be suitable for ordinary vehicles. An ice road would be built that can accommodate any size of vehicle by January, which would typically be closed in mid to late April.
The ice typically jams at narrow spots on the river, causing freeze in fall- and, sometimes, floods in  spring.
One of the narrow spots is just downstream of Dawson, which is convenient for crossing to Dawson. Another narrow spot is the confluence of the Klondike and Yukon Rivers where a delta forms a narrow place. Sometimes the river stops there, and when it does, it leaves a large open lead exactly where the ice bridge needs to go.
In recent years, the river has been stopping at this upstream location, resulting in West Dawson becoming less liveable.
This year has been exceptional. While we can cross, it means a considerable diversion upstream to where the ice is solid, and then the need to pick one's way across the notoriously undependable Klondike river ice.
The first image is a satellite false colour showing where the ice jammed, a few days after freeze-up. The link is a short video of some locals slicing off a 900m long slab of ice in the hope it would pivot across the open channel and form an ice bridge. It didn't work; the current pushed the slab out into the river and it floated away.https://www.facebook.com/605423183/videos/874545907506238/ Somewhere I have a couple of hydrology reports which help explain how the changing climate is wreaking havoc with the lifestyles of those of us over here. Well, it's not a crisis, it's  just really awkward.
And another image illustrating the hazards of the Klondike.

[Sebastian Jones]

Well, it seems the ice cover map won't load. Sorry. I wanted this to be a more sciency post.
Perhaps 5mb is too big.

[Sigmetnow]

Helping people survive in the less livable places
 
FEMA makes sweeping changes to help disaster victims

FEMA, a relatively small agency, largely carries the responsibility of helping states and communities recover from hurricanes, wildfires and other weather-related disasters. This includes helping people find and pay for short-term housing while their state and local governments lead recovery efforts.
 
As climate change has made disasters more destructive, frequent and costly, FEMA said that more victims, especially vulnerable populations, have been falling further through the cracks.
 
To change that, the agency will soon offer more flexible forms of assistance aimed at getting money to people faster. Criswell said that when she took the job in 2021, she started traveling to disaster zones and listening to the frustrations and criticisms from victims, nonprofits and local officials, who repeatedly highlighted how people were left for months struggling to get aid.
 
Experts and aid organizations say that America’s disaster response, particularly how it addresses immediate housing needs, is broken. It is getting harder for communities to get back on their feet largely because local and state governments are overwhelmed by the scale and cost of recovery, and federal resources have not filled in the gaps. Housing is the linchpin, experts say, for a community to survive and recover after a disaster. …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/01/19/fema-changes-disaster-victims-climate/
You can use Safari’s Reader (under the “AA” menu) to get past the pop-up, or use this temporary link: https://wapo.st/3u3JKWY

[vox_mundi]

Reagan Test Site Damage From Massive Waves Seen In Imagery
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/reagan-test-site-damage-from-massive-waves-seen-in-imagery



The U.S. Army says facilities that support operations for a key space and missile test range were among many affected by massive waves seen in a viral video that crashed ashore Jan. 20 on Roi-Namur Island in the Kwajalein Atoll. The "weather-driven waves" caused "significant damage" across the island, the Army said in a media release.

Roi-Namur is the second-largest island of the atoll, which is part of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The U.S. Army Garrison-Kwajalein Atoll (USAG–KA) based there supports the U.S. Space and Missile Defense Command’s Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site (RTS) and houses critical radar and other sensors that support mission readiness and military testing.

"Aerial photos show extensive damage to Roi-Namur’s infrastructure, and multiple areas on the island are under water," the Army said in a media release. It mentioned no other islands in the atoll.

“Flooding from the waves damaged much of the unaccompanied personnel housing,” Frye said. “The Dining Facility, the Outrigger Club, the chapel and the island's theater were moderately to severely damaged. The automotive complex remains underwater.”

While the Army refers to the incident at Roi-Namur as a "weather anomaly," the issue of how climate changes are affecting military installations is a big concern for the Pentagon. Far-flung Pacific islands like Roi-Namur are a particular concern.

The “'tipping point' in island flooding – the time at which the majority of Roi-Namur’s land would be flooded annually – is projected to occur between 2055 and 2065 for the worst-case climate scenario, between 2060 and 2070 for the business as usual climate scenario, and sometime after 2105 for the best-case scenario," according to a 2020 Defense Department study on climate change. "Flooding from seawater is expected to have detrimental impacts to infrastructure, shorelines, roads, runways, and other recreational areas on and surrounding the installation.

Many of the adjacent islands on Kwajalein Atoll that are inhabited and/or have DoD facilities will experience similar impacts, the study noted.

https://twitter.com/USGSCoastChange/status/966022320828530688

Pacific missile tracking site could be unusable in 20 years due to climate change, says our report for US Department of Defense.

Climate-related disasters have caused havoc at installations around the world. A few examples include Typhoon Mawar battering Andersen Air Force Base in Guam in 2023. Flooding in 2019 swamped Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. Hurricane Michael destroyed Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida in 2018.

It remains unknown the extent of damage to facilities at Roi-Namur Island and around the rest of the atoll, as well as how long key facilities will remain offline and how much it will cost to restore them. Regardless, the incident could be a harbinger of what's to come not just for this critical facility, but for other low-lying island bases like it.

[vox_mundi]

Bangkok Says Work From Home As Pollution Blankets City
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-bangkok-home-pollution-blankets-city.html

Bangkok city employees have been told to work from home to avoid harmful air pollution, as a layer of noxious haze blanketed the Thai capital on Thursday.

City authorities asked for cooperation from employers to help workers in the city of about 11 million people avoid the pollution, which is expected to last into Friday.

The air monitoring website IQAir ranked Bangkok among the 10 most polluted cities in the world on Thursday morning.

https://www.iqair.com/us/thailand/bangkok

Air quality in Thailand regularly plummets in the early months of the year as smoke from farmers burning stubble in the fields adds to industrial emissions and vehicle exhaust fumes.

Bangkok and the northern city of Chiang Mai ranked among the most polluted cities in the world on a number of days last year.

A public health crisis is brewing over the problem, with at least two million people in Thailand needing medical treatment because of pollution in 2023.

Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul urged farmers to stop burning stubble, saying work was under way to find an alternative way to clear fields and fertilize the soil.

[Sigmetnow]

‘They just can’t take this kind of beating’: California mansions on the brink

Across Southern California, slope failures and ground movement after a series of storms have put homes in harm’s way

The latest storm battering the California coast has brought fresh flooding, mudslides, sinkholes and coastal erosion to the state — but the three mansions atop the cliffs of Dana Point remain anchored in place.

After a chunk of those cliffs sloughed off amid an atmospheric river earlier this month, the views from Scenic Drive in Orange County became even more dramatic, as the houses suddenly had very little separating them from the Pacific Ocean below.
…

The erosion of the sheer cliffs is just one vivid example of the sloughing and sliding happening across Southern California as heavy rains this month have swollen rivers and waterlogged the soil. Tourjé said his firm has responded for emergency assessments and repairs for over 60 landslides in the past week in Southern California, a particularly heavy load.

“The rainy seasons always get busy for us, but this one’s beginning to change the game a little bit,” he said. “We’re seeing more damage, and I think we will continue to see more significant damage. Between back-to-back years of heavy saturation, these houses, these properties … they just can’t take this kind of beating.”
…

The heavy rain over the past two winters has been a boon to the state’s reservoirs, which had fallen to critical lows after years of drought. Most are fuller than normal, and the two largest — Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville — are above 80 percent capacity. The storms have dropped heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains, but snowpack for the year remains below average. …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/21/california-landslides-home-dana-point/
 
Use Safari Reader,
or this gift link, for a limited time: https://wapo.st/48wF89H

[kassy]

Indigenous Colombians fret as sacred mountain glaciers melt

...

The inhabitants of the Sierra Nevada range in north Colombia believe it is the center of the universe, its rivers, stones and plants part of one living body. They see it as their job to protect its balance.

...

But here in Earth's highest coastal mountain system, 5,775 meters (19,000 feet) above sea level, the natural harmony they prize is being disrupted as record heat waves melt the glacial peaks and ruin their crops.

...

Of the 14 tropical glaciers that existed in Colombia at the beginning of the 20th century, only six remain, according to official data.

The Sierra Nevada's glacial area has shrunk from 82 square kilometers (32 square miles) in the mid-19th century to just 5.3 kilometers in 2022, according to the state meteorological institute.

...

In January, environmental authorities recorded a record temperature of 40 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) in the seaside city of Santa Marta, at the foot of the Sierra Nevada.

A swing between morning frosts and midday surges of heat ruined the residents' maize crops.

The Arhuaco hope the weather extremes will moderate by March in time to plant beans, cabbage and corn.

...

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240221-indigenous-colombians-fret-as-sacred-mountain-glaciers-melt

[kassy]

Risk of Preterm Birth Is Dramatically Rising as The World Gets Hotter


...

New research by an Australian team of scientists reviewing 163 health studies from across the world reveals an extremely troubling picture of how childhood health measures have already worsened as a result of climate change, which shows no sign of abating anytime soon.

An estimated 600 million people currently live in areas that expose them to temperatures outside of what's considered ideal for humans, and scientists predict that number will rise to 3 billion people by the end of the century.

That's bad news, given that the new research found temperature extremes associated with climate change have raised the risk of preterm birth to 60 percent on average.

The study also reports that an increase in airborne particles and allergens from climate events like wildfires, droughts, and irregular seasons is having a substantial impact on respiratory disease and perinatal outcomes.

Corey Bradshaw, a global ecologist from Flinders University in Australia, is concerned climate change could cause lifelong complications for millions of children around the world.

"We've crunched the data to show how certain types of future weather events will worsen particular medical issues in the population," he says.

"We identified many direct links between climate change and child health, the strongest of which was a 60 percent increased risk on average of preterm birth from exposure to temperature extremes."

Perinatal outcomes were shown to be impacted by temperature changes in 39 of the papers that Bradshaw and colleagues reviewed. Preterm birth was reported in 29 of these studies, making it the most common outcome associated with either exposure to temperature extremes or increases in ambient temperatures. But other studies also reported effects such as low birth weight, gestational age changes, premature membrane rupture and even pregnancy loss.

While temperature extremes had the greatest impact on child health, 16 of the 20 studies investigating the impact of air pollutants found they had at least some effect on child health outcomes.

Air pollution had a significant impact on respiratory diseases. For instance, at least seven different studies reported that increased concentrations of airborne particles coincided with a rise in the number of children presenting to hospital emergency departments with respiratory issues. Four of these studies specifically investigated pollution from wildfire smoke, which we are now inhaling more often than ever.

...

As the researchers point out, low- and middle-income countries are underrepresented in the research. So this bleak picture might actually be an under-estimation of how bad things are really getting, because most of the studies analyzed were conducted in high-income countries where children are better protected from the worst impacts of climate change.

...

https://www.sciencealert.com/risk-of-preterm-birth-is-dramatically-rising-as-the-world-gets-hotter

[vox_mundi]

$500K Sand Dune Designed to Protect Coastal Homes Washes Away in Just 3 Days
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/devastating-storm-battered-dunes-concern-coastal-salisbury-residents/3259243/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/dollar500k-dune-designed-to-protect-massachusetts-homes-last-just-3-days

In a drastic attempt to protect their beachfront homes, residents in Salisbury, Massachusetts, invested $500,000 in a sand dune to defend against encroaching tides. After being completed last week, the barrier made from 14,000 tons of sand lasted just 72 hours before it was completely washed away, according to WCVB. “We got hit with three storms—two in January, one now—at the highest astronomical tides possible,” Rick Rigoli, who oversaw the dune project, told the station. Ron Guilmette, whose tennis court was destroyed in previous storms along the beach, added that he now doesn’t know how much his property is worth or if he will stay in the area. He calls the situation on Salisbury Beach “catastrophic.” “I don’t know what the solution is,” Guilmette said. Beachfront homes in the area started being damaged by strong winds and high tides after a winter storm in December 2022 removed previous protective dunes, according to WBTS-CD.

[kassy]

They should take that as a hint.

[Sigmetnow]

“We got hit with three storms—two in January, one now—at the highest astronomical tides possible,” …

I keep seeing this — strong storms associated with high Moon tides.  Has a statistical association ever been shown?  Or are there simply more big storms, so the probability of a coincidence is greater?

[kiwichick16]

@  kassy  .....who are they going to sell to ?    ....and will the potential purchasers be able to get insurance

run on the bank comes to mind ......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run

[interstitial]

@  kassy  .....who are they going to sell to ?    ....and will the potential purchasers be able to get insurance

run on the bank comes to mind ......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run

They should be uninsurable.
Any loans should be for no more than the value of land without buildings.
Rebuilding should be banned.


People are often stuck and there are few good answers.

[kiwichick16]

@ inter.....locally the insurance companies have increased the premiuns for everyone due the Cyclone  ( Gabrielle) and other extreme weather events last year , and pricing properties in risky areas even higher.

I haven't heard of insurance being refused as yet , but it will only be a matter of time....


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133047976/these-are-the-places-where-its-most-difficult-to-insure-a-house

[kiwichick16]

company directors could be held liable for impacts linked to their business activities

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/15/uk-company-directors-may-be-liable-for-climate-impacts-say-lawyers

[vox_mundi]

Climate Change Is Fuelling the US Insurance Problem
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240311-why-climate-change-is-making-the-us-uninsurable

Extreme weather events are making it hard to insure homes in certain parts of the US. What happens when insurance companies simply stop insuring?

When Frances Acuña received her flood insurance quote for the coming year, she got a shock: it would be increasing from $450 to $1,893 (£355 to £1,490). "I couldn't pay it," she says. "And so now I don't have flood insurance. But I don't feel alone as most of my neighbours don't have flood insurance either."  ... "I bought this house thinking I would die in it," she says, in tears over the decision she has been forced to make. "But I can't afford to live here anymore."

Acuña's insurance went up because of a change in floodplain mapping. In 2018, the National Weather Service updated its flood models to reflect 25 years' worth of flood data. Thousands of houses in Austin that were previously expected to flood only once in every 500 years were upgraded to a risk of one in every 100 years.

With the new data analysis indicating that Austin was at a higher risk of flooding than previously estimated, insurance policies for many homes skyrocketed. In the first half of 2023 alone, premiums in Texas rose by up to 16%.

The hike in insurance costs in Austin mirrors a crisis unfolding across America – along both coasts, and through the Midwest. "If you're not worried, you're not paying attention," California Senator Bill Dodd warned in 2023, following the release of a report which found Florida, California and Louisiana would see dramatic rises in home insurance premiums.

In 2022, insurance firm AllState paused selling new home and condo insurance policies in California. "Our payments to help California residents recover from accidents and disasters have increased significantly in recent years due to higher repair costs and more frequent and severe weather," says a spokesperson for AllState. "We continue to offer coverage to most existing home insurance customers."

In 2023, State Farm, one of the US' biggest insurance providers, announced it too would stop selling new home insurance policies in California. "[We] made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market," a statement from the company read. It was the latest insurer to pull back from the state, which has been hit by devastating wildfires and floods in recent years, and has the ever-looming threat of a major earthquake. Meanwhile, in Florida, Farmers Insurance discontinued its own-brand home insurance in the state, joining at least a dozen insurers who had already left. "This business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure," a Farmers Insurance spokesperson told the BBC.

The abandonment of these areas is part of a wider story – thanks to climate change, the US is becoming a more volatile place to live. Hurricanes, floods, storms, and fires have caused widespread mass destruction in the US over recent years. It's also becoming more expensive, due to the costs associated with extreme weather events. A report released in 2022 analysed 120 million homes and found one in 10 properties were impacted by natural disasters. Winter storms impacted 12.7 million homes, causing $15bn (£12bn) in property damage in 2021 alone, while hurricanes caused $33bn (£26bn) in damage across 1.2 million homes.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220217005368/en/CoreLogic-Climate-Change-Catastrophe-Report-Estimates-1-in-10-U.S.-Residential-Properties-Impacted-by-Natural-Disasters-in-2021

And the future looks even worse. A recent report by First Street Foundation, a non-profit focusing on climate risk research, found 23.9 million properties in the US are at risk from damaging winds, 4.4 million properties at risk from wildfire, and a further 12 million properties have a significant risk of flooding – in addition to properties in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema)'s Special Flood Hazard Areas (100-year flood zones that the government has already identified). "Private insurance companies are effectively labelling areas as uninsurable," the report found.

https://assets.firststreet.org/uploads/2023/09/PR_Insurance-2.pdf

https://report.firststreet.org/9th-National-Risk-Assessment-The-Insurance-Issue.pdf

[gerontocrat]

As insurers find increasing numbers of properties uninsurable their business shrinks.
Insurance is a significant element of the capitalist system, which depends on business growth ad infinitum.

As extreme weather events are expected to increase, the problem will increase (globally). I wonder how vulnerable the capitalist system is.

[kassy]

You can monetize potable water and liveable places. It will be fine just with a lot less consumers.

[vox_mundi]

Fort Lauderdale Is Looking at Raising Roads to Battle Rising Seas
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-fort-lauderdale-roads-seas.html

It's a scary thought: Sea levels rising by as much as 2 feet, swallowing up land, homes and everything else not on high ground. It could happen as soon as 2060, experts say.

Fort Lauderdale, with its overabundance of low-lying neighborhoods both inland and along the coast, is already looking at one drastic, "last-resort" option to help keep streets high and dry: Raising roads.

Higher seawalls, bigger pipes and better pumping stations won't be enough to armor the city, Fort Lauderdale officials warn.

Fort Lauderdale is seeking input from experts with the Urban Land Institute, a nonprofit organization made up of land-use experts who also have offered guidance to other cities vulnerable to flooding, including New Orleans, Boston, New York City, Chicago and El Paso.

A panel of ULI experts recently toured Fort Lauderdale's most flood-prone neighborhoods, then held two public meetings with the community to hear from residents and share what might lie ahead.

During the first meeting, Fort Lauderdale resident Judy Mudge told panelists she's about to grow gills and fins.

"We're really impacted by the king tides," she said of her Las Olas Isles neighborhood. "It's really frustrating. The road becomes a river. The seawall does not stop the water. We really need your help."

"We are living in the bottom of a bathtub," he said. "People are running out to buy high-clearance vehicles or a boat. I have both. We're still building road diets around here (where lanes are removed to slow down traffic). That's the wrong way to go, guys. You have to (give) people (a way) to escape."

Fort Lauderdale is raising seawalls, upgrading drainage and installing tidal valves in an attempt to reduce coastal flooding, Assistant Public Works Director Nancy Gassman said. But for flood-prone areas where upgrades have not solved the problem, roadway elevation has been proposed as the next potential solution.

... A controversial road-raising project is already underway in Miami Beach, where some residents are complaining of roads so high that lawns flood while streets stay dry.

If a road is raised by 2 feet, nearby homes can flood unless they are elevated along with the road. And that can cost a pretty penny.

Raising a home above base elevation can cost anywhere from $30,000 to more than $100,000, according to FL Home Builder.

"Road elevation is the last resort," Commissioner Steve Glassman told the South Florida Sun Sentinel on Friday. "Miami Beach had issues, but we have to learn from that. How do we mitigate those issues? I think we can learn from those who have already done this. And you do a better job when you learn from mistakes that have been made."

If Fort Lauderdale officials move forward with a plan to elevate roads, they are likely going to get pushback from homeowners, said Kitty McGowan, a local activist who has served on Fort Lauderdale's Marine Advisory Board.

"If you put a mountain next to something that's lower, the water is going to run down," McGowan said.

To avoid a deluge, residents would have to pay an "insane" amount to have their homes elevated to the same level as the road, McGowan said.

... Fort Lauderdale officials have made no mention of buying out private property owners—not yet, anyway.

"How do you tell people it's not really worth trying to save your street or your home?" Glassman said. "It's scary. It's a scary thought. But it might be the reality of the future. But that's part of a much larger discussion."

Last year, Fort Lauderdale commissioners gave unanimous approval to new seawall height requirements, increasing the minimum top elevation from 3.9 feet to 5 feet.

Seawalls are not cheap.

A homeowner with a 100-foot-long seawall might end up paying anywhere from $125,000 to $200,000.

Fort Lauderdale homeowners cited by the city will have one year to build or replace their seawall. If they miss the 365-day deadline, they can be fined $100 a day.

[gerontocrat]

Fort Lauderdale Is Looking at Raising Roads to Battle Rising Seas
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-fort-lauderdale-roads-seas.html

It's a scary thought: Sea levels rising by as much as 2 feet, swallowing up land, homes and everything else not on high ground. It could happen as soon as 2060, experts say.

Fort Lauderdale, with its overabundance of low-lying neighborhoods both inland and along the coast, is already looking at one drastic, "last-resort" option to help keep streets high and dry: Raising roads.

Higher seawalls, bigger pipes and better pumping stations won't be enough to armor the city, Fort Lauderdale officials warn.

There is a lot of infrastructure buried underground. Water mains, sewer pipes, electricity supply (at least in high-income areas). Once the water table rises permanently, expect major problems in the long-term.

Methinks they are looking for solutions that will not work.

[kiwichick16]

significant infrastructure which supports plant growth , ie their root system, is also ,largely, underground .

Sea level rise doesn't have to get up to ground level to  decimate plant growth.

[kiwichick16]

Apologies  Gero ....you have been making that point in the ag and food thread 

[vox_mundi]

South Sudan Heatwave: Extreme Weather Shuts Schools and Cuts Power
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68596499

All schools have been ordered to close in South Sudan, as it prepares for a heatwave in which temperatures could reach an exceptional 45C (113F).

Authorities said children should stay indoors and that the extreme weather could last for at least two weeks.

Deaths "related to excessive heat" have already been reported, officials said on Saturday.

Residents in parts of the capital Juba sweltered without electric fans on Monday as the heat sparked power cuts.

The streets of Juba, home to over 400,000 people, were largely quiet in the afternoon as local media reported temperatures of 41C (106F).

It is exceptionally early for South Sudan to experience such heat - temperatures often exceed 43C (109F) but only in the summer months, according to the World Bank's Climate Change portal.

[Jacobus]

Fort Lauderdale Is Looking at Raising Roads to Battle Rising Seas
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-fort-lauderdale-roads-seas.html

It's a scary thought: Sea levels rising by as much as 2 feet, swallowing up land, homes and everything else not on high ground. It could happen as soon as 2060, experts say.

Fort Lauderdale, with its overabundance of low-lying neighborhoods both inland and along the coast, is already looking at one drastic, "last-resort" option to help keep streets high and dry: Raising roads.

Higher seawalls, bigger pipes and better pumping stations won't be enough to armor the city, Fort Lauderdale officials warn.

There is a lot of infrastructure buried underground. Water mains, sewer pipes, electricity supply (at least in high-income areas). Once the water table rises permanently, expect major problems in the long-term.

Methinks they are looking for solutions that will not work.

Maybe it would help if they built a wall.