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vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #650 on: September 26, 2018, 04:32:21 PM »

Jennifer A. Francis et al, North American weather regimes are becoming more persistent: Is Arctic amplification a factor?, Geophysical Research Letters (2018)

Abstract
Rapid Arctic warming is hypothesized to favor an increased persistence of regional weather patterns in the northern hemisphere [Francis and Vavrus 2012]. Persistent conditions can lead to drought, heatwaves, prolonged cold spells, and storminess that can cost millions of dollars in damage and disrupt societal and ecosystem norms. This study defines a new metric called long‐duration events (LDEs) ‐‐ conditions that endure at least 4 consecutive days ‐‐ and takes two independent approaches to assessing seasonal changes in weather‐pattern persistence over North America. One applies precipitation measurements at weather stations across the United States; the other is based on a cluster analysis of large‐scale, upper‐level atmospheric patterns. Both methods indicate an overall increase in LDEs. We also find that large‐scale patterns consistent with a warm Arctic exhibit an increased frequency of LDEs, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor persistent weather patterns that can lead to weather extremes.

Plain Language Summary
Rapid Arctic warming and sea‐ice loss are expected to affect weather patterns around the northern hemisphere. An increased persistent of weather regimes is one hypothesized impact. Long‐lasting weather conditions can lead to destructive extreme events, such as droughts, prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, and flooding. This study uses daily precipitation measurements across the United States, as well as daily large‐scale atmospheric patterns over the eastern Pacific and North America, to assess changes in weather‐regime persistence, and whether any changes are associated with a rapidly warming Arctic. We find an increased frequency in long‐lived patterns in recent decades, especially those with abnormally warm high latitudes, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor an increase in extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.



Scientists at Rutgers University-New Brunswick and the University of Wisconsin-Madison examined daily precipitation data at 17 stations across the U.S., along with large upper-level circulation patterns over the eastern Pacific Ocean and North America.

Overall, dry and wet spells lasting four or more days occurred more frequently in recent decades, according to the study published online today in Geophysical Research Letters. The frequency of persistent large-scale circulation patterns over North America also increased when the Arctic was abnormally warm.

"While we cannot say for sure that Arctic warming is the cause, we found that large-scale patterns with Arctic warming are becoming more frequent, and the frequency of long-duration weather conditions increases most for those patterns," said Francis, who works in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences.

The results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm and melt, it's likely that long-duration events will continue to occur more often, meaning that weather patterns—heat waves, droughts, cold spells and stormy conditions—will likely become more persistent, she said.

"When these conditions last a long time, they can become extreme events, as we've seen so often in recent years," she said. "Knowing which types of events will occur more often in which regions and under what background conditions—such as certain ocean temperature patterns—will help decision-makers plan for the future in terms of infrastructure improvements, agricultural practices, emergency preparedness and managed retreat from hazardous areas."

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-persistent-weather-patterns-linked-arctic.html
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 04:42:50 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #651 on: September 26, 2018, 04:37:31 PM »
I find it interesting that "hundreds of airports under construction" meant (in my mind) "hundreds of new airports..."  Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if 30% of all airports (and 90% of commercial airports) have an area or two that are "under construction" during any given year, of course much of that will be terminal development and infrastructure repair.
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Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #652 on: September 26, 2018, 06:39:06 PM »
There are more than 40 000 airports on this planet, big and small ones. The US has 13 000, and India with a population almost 4 times bigger has 360 airports. So you can be sure we are talking about hundreds of new airports.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2053.html

Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #653 on: September 26, 2018, 06:46:05 PM »
What surprised me a little bit, is the number 800 billion in 3 months. If you take the new airport in Istanbul. Construction costs are estimated at 7 billion, for 150 million passengers a year. With that 800 billion they add capacity for 17 billion passengers in 3 months. No idea where they are going to get the planes from .So besides an ecological disaster it's probably also a financial bubble.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul_New_Airport

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #654 on: September 27, 2018, 05:43:08 AM »
Guardian series on climate migrants in the USA :

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/series/americans-the-next-climate-migrants

Very worth reading.

sidd

bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #655 on: October 04, 2018, 06:59:32 PM »
I feel like one morning we are going to wake up and the headlines will read about how thousands of South Floridians *didn't* wake up that day as they suffocated and died during sleep when a red tide bloom hit critical mass and wafted over coastal neighborhoods.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article219477125.html

What is the alternative? The blooms are now creeping toward Miami. They are getting worse over time. Large marine mammals are dying. So how long until they hit a point where humans are also overcome? With many experiencing respiratory issues as-is, things are not looking great.

Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #656 on: October 05, 2018, 03:29:25 AM »
Everyone thinks they are not going to be climate migrants. When the Arctic collapses most people will be climate migrants.

I honestly think that Trump's wall will be used in reverse.  The summer heat in the inner north american continent will be deadly.  The winters will bury people with snow. At least for a few years after a BOE the tropics will be safer, or maybe the mid southern hemisphere.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #657 on: October 05, 2018, 12:50:19 PM »
Another collapsing fishery. ...

Fish dwindle in the traditionally rich waters of Tanzania – in pictures
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2018/oct/05/fish-dwindle-traditionally-rich-waters-tanzania-kivukoni-dar-es-salaam-in-pictures

In Kivukoni fish market, the port city of Dar es Salaam boasts a thriving economic enterprise. But diminishing catches means demand outstrips supply.


« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 08:52:13 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #659 on: October 06, 2018, 10:38:18 PM »
Everyone thinks they are not going to be climate migrants. When the Arctic collapses most people will be climate migrants. I honestly think that Trump's wall will be used in reverse.  The summer heat in the inner north american continent will be deadly.  The winters will bury people with snow. At least for a few years after a BOE the tropics will be safer, or maybe the mid southern hemisphere.

Could not agree with you more, one day probably not that far away, we are going to be watching this in real time. Although we already get buried in snow up here in Canada (a lot less than in the 80's and 90's) so we may need a bit of wall building too. Eastern Canada will be completely chaotic with Hansen's storms of his grandchildren, and the mid-west will probably look like the Grapes of Wrath but the Great Lakes and British Columbia may be able to adapt.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #660 on: October 06, 2018, 10:47:33 PM »
BC and Alberta share an awfully long border.  Will Mexico pay for the wall?
 ::) :P :-\ :'(
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sidd

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #662 on: October 28, 2018, 04:28:16 PM »
UK
Rising sea levels will claim homes around English coast, report warns
Third of coastline cannot be affordably protected, government climate change advisers say, with current plans ‘not fit for purpose’
Quote
Rising sea levels will claim homes, roads and fields around the coast of England, the government’s official advisers have warned, and many people are unaware of the risks they face.
The new report from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) said existing government plans to “hold the line” in many places – building defences to keep shores in their current position – were unaffordable for a third of the country’s coast. Instead, the CCC said, discussions about the “hard choices” needed must be started with communities that will have to move inland.
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/rising-sea-levels-will-claim-homes-around-english-coast-report-warns

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, US
They Know Seas Are Rising, but They’re Not Abandoning Their Beloved Cape Cod
Quote
"It flooded in early January, and then it happened again two or three months later," says Matt Teague of Barnstable, Mass., about the slew of storms that hit Cape Cod in the winter of 2017. "We're like, what are we doing here?" he says, opening his arms skyward.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23102018/cape-cod-sea-level-rise-trump-voters-climate-change-questions-science-based-coastal-building-codes

Florida
Climate Change Flooding In Rick Scott’s Florida Is Now Routine — Even As He Denies Its Cause
It’s not just “red tide” that’s plaguing the Florida governor’s run for Senate. “King tides” caused by rising sea levels are flooding southeast Florida every autumn.
Quote
Michelle DeLeon lives on Lincoln Road just a block from the bay, meaning the water gets to her building first. Her garage has a special plastic barrier installed to keep water out. Sandbags are piled in the building’s foyer, and a small notice on the bulletin board lists all the coming high tides. “The word on our street? This is Lincoln Lake,” she said.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rick-scott-florida-flooding-climate-change-king-tides_us_5bd391dfe4b0a8f17ef7a626

Canada
Here's what climate change could look like in Canada
Quote
In July 2018, Montreal experienced 70 heat-related deaths as the city dealt with unusually hot temperatures into the 30s with stifling humidity that made it feel closer to 40 C. This summer, British Columbia experienced its worst fire season on record. In August, two brief thunderstorms caused widespread flooding in Toronto, bringing the downtown core to a standstill.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/climate-change-canada-1.4878263
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #663 on: October 30, 2018, 12:39:17 PM »
It seems that non-human life is continuing to find this planet less livable.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds

Humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations since 1970, report finds


https://www.zsl.org/global-biodiversity-monitoring/indicators-and-assessments-unit/living-planet-index


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #664 on: October 30, 2018, 11:54:43 PM »
And China just removed the ban for use of rhino horns and tiger bones in traditional medicine.... Fuck traditional medicine...

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #665 on: October 31, 2018, 02:35:12 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46029302


Venice under water as deadly storms hit Italy

"Italy has been battered by fierce winds and rain which have left 11 people dead in the west and north, while schools and tourist sites closed in several regions amid fears for people's safety.

" Winds of up to 180km/h (110 mph) were reported, and two tornadoes ripped through the centre of the coastal town of Terracina, killing one person and leaving 10 others injured.
In the canal city of Venice, rising floodwaters overwhelmed many of its famed squares and walkways, with officials saying as much as 75% of the city is now submerged."

Related event:
(The Rapallo Sea Wall was washed away last night)

https://www.gazzettadiparma.it/video/gallery/548533/scenario-apocalittico-a-rapallo-strage-di-yacht-berlusconi-compreso.html

Sea Wall Collapsing

http://www.ansa.it/liguria/notizie/2018/10/30/-maltempo-mareggiata-fa-strage-yacht-a-porto-rapallo-_91ffc13a-ee35-4207-9a0f-87b003c2a825.html


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #666 on: November 03, 2018, 12:30:30 AM »
4 wounded, shooter dead at Tallahassee yoga studio on Thomasville Road
This happened nowhere near where we live or work (although near where my wife occasionally eats), but it does make the place less livable.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #667 on: November 03, 2018, 03:43:14 PM »
It seems that non-human life is continuing to find this planet less livable.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds

Humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations since 1970, report finds


https://www.zsl.org/global-biodiversity-monitoring/indicators-and-assessments-unit/living-planet-index

As if we needed telling? yes, we do, again and again and again.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/03/stop-biodiversity-loss-or-we-could-face-our-own-extinction-warns-un

Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN
The world has two years to secure a deal for nature to halt a ‘silent killer’ as dangerous as climate change, says biodiversity chief

Quote
The world must thrash out a new deal for nature in the next two years or humanity could be the first species to document our own extinction, warns the United Nation’s biodiversity chief.

Ahead of a key international conference to discuss the collapse of ecosystems, Cristiana Pașca Palmer said people in all countries need to put pressure on their governments to draw up ambitious global targets by 2020 to protect the insects, birds, plants and mammals that are vital for global food production, clean water and carbon sequestration.

“The loss of biodiversity is a silent killer,” she told the Guardian. “It’s different from climate change, where people feel the impact in everyday life. With biodiversity, it is not so clear but by the time you feel what is happening, it may be too late.”

A picture worth a thousand words. The dark soil - I think it is peat, goodbye CO2 sink, hullo CO2 emitter.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #668 on: November 03, 2018, 03:59:31 PM »
It looks like the Guardian is trying to wake up the world - will it reach the places where the people who presume to govern us live?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/03/the-most-intellectual-creature-to-ever-walk-earth-is-destroying-its-only-home

'The most intellectual creature to ever walk Earth is destroying its only home'
Introducing the Guardian’s new series The Age of Extinction, the renowned primatologist describes the dramatic vanishing of wildlife she has witnessed in her lifetime – and how we can all play a vital role in halting its destruction

Read the article - please.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

litesong

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #669 on: November 03, 2018, 10:54:42 PM »
Increasing forest fires searing the U.S.:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires

Half-way down the above article, is a graph of the yearly acreage burned with super-imposed anomalous temperatures during those years. Never seen such before & very interesting.

Sleepy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #670 on: November 04, 2018, 06:19:34 AM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Red

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #671 on: November 12, 2018, 11:12:56 AM »

Experts are warning that Britain risks sleepwalking into a health crisis unless the government massively invests in public information on air pollution.

Findings released last week by Clean Air Day, the country’s largest air quality campaign, revealed that people respond well when given accurate information and the means to do something about air pollution.

But this is little comfort - according to the charity behind the research - unless the government commits to an information campaign to match the scale of the problem

https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/12/air-pollution-crisis-needs-ambitious-health-campaign

Red

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #672 on: November 12, 2018, 11:16:10 AM »

Young European entrepreneurs are participating in the Copernicus AtmosHack – a competition to come up with ideas that could help to reduce people’s exposure to atmospheric pollution and UV radiation. Participants base their innovations on freely available data from the EU’s Copernicus Programme.

This data includes observations from Copernicus and EUMETSAT satellites, ground-based air quality data, and air quality analyses and forecasts produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), implemented by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

The hackathon, organised by Ultrahack, takes place in Helsinki on 16-18 November.

https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/12/hacking-atmosphere

Red

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #673 on: November 17, 2018, 12:11:44 PM »
Competition for shrinking window of low salinity groundwater

Abstract

Groundwater resources are being stressed from the top down and bottom up. Declining water tables and near-surface contamination are driving groundwater users to construct deeper wells in many US aquifer systems. This has been a successful short-term mitigation measure where deep groundwater is fresh and free of contaminants. Nevertheless, vertical salinity profiles are not well-constrained at continental-scales. In many regions, oil and gas activities use pore spaces for energy production and waste disposal. Here we quantify depths that aquifer systems transition from fresh-to-brackish and where oil and gas activities are widespread in sedimentary basins across the United States. Fresh-brackish transitions occur at relatively shallow depths of just a few hundred meters, particularly in eastern US basins. We conclude that fresh groundwater is less abundant in several key US basins than previously thought; therefore drilling deeper wells to access fresh groundwater resources is not feasible extensively across the continent. Our findings illustrate that groundwater stores are being depleted not only by excessive withdrawals, but due to injection, and potentially contamination, from the oil and gas industry in areas of deep fresh and brackish groundwater.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae6d8/meta

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #674 on: November 17, 2018, 02:49:14 PM »
Threat to USA Grain Harvests - depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer. I have been watching this for over 20 years.

http://duwaterlawreview.com/crisis-on-the-high-plains-the-loss-of-americas-largest-aquifer-the-ogallala/
Quote
The grain-growing region in the High Plains of America—known as America’s breadbasket—relies entirely on the Ogallala Aquifer. But long term unsustainable use of the aquifer is forcing states in the region to face the prospect of a regional economic disaster.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #675 on: November 19, 2018, 08:41:58 PM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #676 on: November 19, 2018, 11:47:13 PM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

aperson

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #677 on: November 20, 2018, 12:44:15 AM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Cite your sources. I expect you'll find it quite hard to find this view among insurers at large, rather there are some very restricted domains where this is the case.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #678 on: November 20, 2018, 01:37:09 AM »
Places becoming less livable ?

Where Sterks lives !  ;D

Aluminium, is it not possible to make it a little bit bigger ? So that we can see what happens east end west of greenland .
I don't want to change area. Any area may be a little bit bigger. Current size is convenient for me and includes main part of the Arctic Ocean.

November 14-18.
No problem. I block you until June. Your now irrelevant half a mega is currently inconvenient for me when loading the page. Merry Christmas and happy 2019!

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #679 on: November 21, 2018, 05:49:29 PM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Cite your sources. I expect you'll find it quite hard to find this view among insurers at large, rather there are some very restricted domains where this is the case.

Ridiculous?  Find me an insurance company that does NOT charge based on risk!  Anyone that does not accurately base their premiums on the risk of payout, will probably be out of business soon.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #680 on: November 21, 2018, 06:04:46 PM »
A little here to support "Insurance companies base rates on past experience" and a little to support "Insurance companies base rates on future expectations not represented by past experience":

Climate Change Is Forcing the Insurance Industry to Recalculate
Wall Street Journal - Published Oct. 2, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. ET
Quote
Insurers are at the vanguard of a movement to put a value today on the unpredictable future of a warming planet


The effects of the planet’s slow heating are diffuse. Predictions of the fallout are imprecise, and the drivers are debated. But faced with the prospect of a warming planet, the world of business and finance is starting to put a price on climate change.

For the most part, insurers are acting on climate change by building models that aim to better estimate the impact. That leaves the industry with the tough question of how to reflect in premiums the new understandings of the underlying risk.


For most insurers, rates aren’t rising—yet. A flood of capital into the industry from pension and hedge-fund investors, driven by low interest rates, has increased competition and pushed down property-catastrophe reinsurance prices in the past decade.

And property insurance and reinsurance contracts typically last one year, so an insurer can recalibrate yearly as risks change. “Global warming may be occurring. Probably is,” says Warren Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has a major reinsurance business. “But it hasn’t hurt the reinsurance industry. And people are pricing still as if it won’t, on a one-year basis.”

If reinsurance contracts covered 30 years, he says, “I’d be crazy not to” include the risks.
...
Big insurers are expanding teams of in-house climatologists, computer scientists and statisticians to redesign models to incorporate the effect of the warming earth on hailstorms, hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Insurers such as Swiss Re Group say hurricanes like Harvey and Florence, which caused widespread flooding, could represent a more common occurrence in the coming decades.

Climate change may be gradual, but the effects are volatile, meaning a company could become exposed to a large, unexpected hit if it doesn’t understand the changing risks, says Junaid Seria, head of catastrophe-model research and development and governance at Paris-based reinsurer Scor SE.
...
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

aperson

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #681 on: November 21, 2018, 10:36:52 PM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Cite your sources. I expect you'll find it quite hard to find this view among insurers at large, rather there are some very restricted domains where this is the case.

Ridiculous?  Find me an insurance company that does NOT charge based on risk!  Anyone that does not accurately base their premiums on the risk of payout, will probably be out of business soon.

Yes, the idea is that they charge based on risk. Effective insurers look at risk rates by modeling the future as well as modeling the past. Why would you expect otherwise?
computer janitor by trade

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #682 on: November 21, 2018, 10:44:49 PM »
The big insurers have already cut back insuring property in Florida due to risks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/11/business/irma-florida-homeowner-insurance.html

The only reason homeowners can get insurance at all is because Florida has passed laws to subsidize the small companies that are still in the market.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/13/the-strange-story-of-how-floridas-lawmakers-subsidized-hurricane-insurance/?utm_term=.c9dcd520186d

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #683 on: November 21, 2018, 10:50:11 PM »
If you want a solid picture of how screwed homeowners are in Florida due to the increased risk posed by climate change, here is a good sampling of informative articles.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sfl-insurance-storygallery.html

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #684 on: November 21, 2018, 11:15:10 PM »
Tor,
Nice post.  With annual premium changes, insurers are not exposed to long term changes in risk.  Yes, they are hiring experts to analyze trends in claims due to climatic changes.  But, this is still mostly based on past incidents.

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #685 on: November 21, 2018, 11:30:17 PM »
AIG: Total Assets: $498 Billion.
https://rctom.hbs.org/submission/aig-underwriting-the-risk-of-climate-change/

Quote
On May 15, 2006, American International Group (“AIG”) became the first U.S. insurance company to publicly address climate change as a risk and formally outline its corporate policy and programs regarding the issue. As a leading provider of Property and Casualty (“P&C”) insurance in the U.S., AIG is directly exposed to the risk of insured losses resulting from severe weather. According to Allianz, one of AIG’s competitors, “climate change stands to increase insured losses from extreme events in an average year by 37 per cent within just a decade”[2]. Given this threat, the players in this market have focused on limiting their financial exposure to high-risk areas, either by canceling or not renewing policies or by increasing deductibles, reducing limits, and adding new exclusions to policies.

Swiss Re: Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd, generally known as Swiss Re, is a reinsurance company based in Zurich, Switzerland. It is the world’s second-largest reinsurer. Total Assets: $222 Billion
http://www.swissre.com/eca/our_climate_change_strategy.html

Quote
As a major global reinsurer, Swiss Re has had a major role in the climate change debate for over two decades. 

 For a reinsurer, climate change constitutes a key risk because it can lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes such as floods, storms, excessive rainfall and drought. In combination with growing asset concentrations in exposed areas and more widespread insurance protection, this will cause a rise in losses.

Since detecting the long-term threat posed by climate change more than 20 years ago, we have been an acknowledged thought leader on the topic. 

Munich Re: Munich Re Group or Munich Reinsurance Company.. It is one of the world’s leading reinsurers.
https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/climate-change.html

Quote
For more than 40 years, Munich Re has been dealing with climate change and the related risks and opportunities for the insurance industry. Our approach to coping with this challenge is holistic and based on the following pillars: risk assessment – insurance solutions – asset management

Like aperson said:
Quote
... Find me an insurance company that does NOT charge based on risk!  Anyone that does not accurately base their premiums on the risk of payout, will probably be out of business soon.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sleepy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #686 on: November 22, 2018, 06:21:44 AM »
https://www.afr.com/business/insurance/climate-change-on-track-to-make-world-uninsurable-iag-20181115-h17xu5
Quote
This week 16 of the world's biggest insurers, including IAG and QBE, launched an initiative with the United Nations to develop new risk assessment tools in an effort to make insurance accessible and affordable.

Participating insurers, which also include AXA, Allianz and Swiss Re, will work with climate scientists to develop a better understanding of the new and unpredictable weather events resulting from climate change.

The focus of the initiative is on responding to climate change, rather than preventing it. However, Ms Johnson said the future of insurance depended upon limiting global temperature rises, which could only be achieved by a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

"We have been very vocal [on the fact that] something will have to change because you cannot continue to have the carbon emissions and think that the world will be insurable," she said.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #687 on: November 22, 2018, 08:54:01 PM »
Another obstacle to the “efficient” solution of housing more people in cities rather than less-dense areas.

Why affordable housing is scarce in progressive cities
Quote
Plenty of factors can explain the crisis of housing affordability plaguing U.S. cities—a shortage of new construction, a lack of tenant protection, greedy developers and speculators, or a lack of upzoning. But according to San Francisco-based housing activist Randy Shaw, author of Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America, one of the true challenges is the entrenched power and privilege of an older generation of homeowners.
https://www.curbed.com/2018/11/16/18098432/rent-housing-affordable-generation-priced-out
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #688 on: November 23, 2018, 09:47:34 PM »
The USA (along with everywhere else)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/americans-will-pay-billions-more-for-climate-change-and-that-s-the-best-case?srnd=politics-vp
Americans Will Pay Billions More For Climate Change, and That’s the Best Case
A grim U.S. government assessment of global warming’s economic impacts gives a whole new meaning to Black Friday.

Quote
The Trump administration just published a major report documenting the advance of climate change, weeks earlier than expected and on a day many Americans are occupied with family and holiday shopping. The news is predictably bad, but this time the tally comes with a pricetag—one significantly larger than you’ll find at the mall.

The report catalogs the observed damage and accelerating losses projected from a climate now unmoored from a 12,000-year period of relative stability. The result is that much of what humans have built, and many of the things they are building now, are increasingly unsuited for the world as it exists.

And it’s not just the effects at home. “The impacts of climate change, variability, and extreme events outside the United States are affecting and are virtually certain to increasingly affect U.S. trade and economy, including import and export prices and businesses with overseas operations and supply chains,” the authors write.

....a best case-scenario will still leave Americans in a country where they are paying tens of billions of dollar more annually to address the fallout of accelerating climate change. A scenario with dramatically less pollution could slash projected losses in 2090 by 48 percent ($75 billion) a year in labor costs, 58 percent ($80 billion) in heat-related deaths and 22 percent ($25 billion) in coastal real estate, according to the report.
THE REPORT
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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dnem

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #689 on: November 24, 2018, 12:06:28 AM »
Perhaps this should go in the Conservative Scientists thread, but I found this prediction in the new US government climate report to be an absolute joke (as reported in the NY Times):

"A major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end."

Ok, let's assume the report guesses that the economy would grow by 2% a year for the rest of the century, if not for climate change.  That would take our current $20 trillion economy to around $100 trillion by 2100.  So, they are saying that rather than $100 trillion, it's only going to grow to $90 trillion, which equates to a 1.85% growth rate.  Please, what an absolute farce!  For starters, anyone who thinks they can predict the economic growth rate to the level of precision is deluded. Who here thinks the US economy will more than quadruple in size this century?  "If significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming" the global economy will collapse this century, not grow by 2, or 1.85%. This whole "by 2100" BS has got to go.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #690 on: November 24, 2018, 12:15:14 AM »

This whole "by 2100" BS has got to go.

I agree.
Trouble is, the whole IPCC edifice is still built on models and policies looking forward to..... 2100
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #691 on: November 24, 2018, 01:45:03 AM »
Predicting temps by 2100 is easier, predicting economics is harder, but an economic collapse by 2100, or much earlier, is virtually certain IMHO, and I agree with dnem - this starkest warning to date is a joke. A sad one.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #692 on: November 24, 2018, 02:22:45 AM »
There will be no market economy in 2100 as we now know it.

bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #693 on: November 24, 2018, 04:23:26 AM »
There will be no market economy in 2100 as we now know it.
BBR's guide to the world in 2100:

I think any populated regions without strong state control are probably headed for chaos, especially where fertility levels are still high. I would think these regions are also the most likely situations where nuclear weapons could be used. Basically like 1984, but with a rapid onset ice age, and an actual vestige of western civilization remaining in Oceania (although the authoritarian governments are also probably going to be "western"-style remnants outside of China, Japan, and Thailand -- I could see the US re-colonizing most of South America with puppet governments and brute force if need be).

The regions I expect "least change" through 2100 are Oceania, and South America, which is already trending towards fascism (so it has less to lose, lol). Spain, Italy, and the Turks are probably Europe's best bet, and all have historical bents towards strong government. I think Thailand could also be best-positioned out of Asian governments for continuity and stability. Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Iran, most of the Middle East, and Africa are all likely to be destabilized by lack of food, riots, and regional nuclear warfare.

The US may retain a similar population and area but that's only because it will invade Central America and northern South America outright for warmer climes as the situation up north becomes dire. Russia will similarly have to relocate to eastern Siberia, its only region buffered by the Pacific's deep warmth. China should be OK since they are good at purging large %s of their population (historically).

I think this is why the last book from GGRM is not forthcoming. Winter is almost here!
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 04:32:05 AM by bbr2314 »

Tony Mcleod

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #694 on: November 24, 2018, 06:05:19 AM »

 "...a rapid onset ice age..."


Really? From misguided geo-engineering presumably.

bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #695 on: November 24, 2018, 06:34:31 AM »

 "...a rapid onset ice age..."


Really? From misguided geo-engineering presumably.
IMO it will be due to Greenland-induced negative feedbacks but that works too!  8)

dnem

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #696 on: November 24, 2018, 09:52:38 PM »
The New York Times has doubled down on the idiocy of its coverage of the new US government climate report.  This from a follow up article headlined "The World Needs to Quit Coal. Why Is It So Hard?":

"Scientists have repeatedly warned of its looming dangers, most recently on Friday, when a major scientific report issued by 13 United States government agencies warned that the damage from climate change could knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end if significant steps aren’t taken to rein in warming."

JFC! A 10% reduction in the size of the US economy in 82 years is the most notable "looming danger" they can come up with???!  Mind boggling.  Incompetent.


TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #697 on: November 24, 2018, 10:13:10 PM »
The New York Times has doubled down on the idiocy of its coverage of the new US government climate report.  This from a follow up article headlined "The World Needs to Quit Coal. Why Is It So Hard?":

"Scientists have repeatedly warned of its looming dangers, most recently on Friday, when a major scientific report issued by 13 United States government agencies warned that the damage from climate change could knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end if significant steps aren’t taken to rein in warming."

JFC! A 10% reduction in the size of the US economy in 82 years is the most notable "looming danger" they can come up with???! Mind bogglingIncompetent.


Yes - but then again it's from the pages of the NYT :)
Terry

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #698 on: November 24, 2018, 11:02:49 PM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?

bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #699 on: November 25, 2018, 12:15:00 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).